cnx37 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For every winner, there is a loser. You must be far smarter than the opposition. From 2003-2007, the AUD had risen from 16:1 THB to around 29:1 THB. I wanted to realize my paper profits. I sought advice from an international bank although I was well educated in finance. My loss was $200k! Doing nothing would have been my best game plan. Seven years later, I still feel the pain. Most "players" in this game lose.You must be exceptional. I have been a gambler in my younger days - cards, punting & bookmaker - you need a very cool head - pressure, pressure! Keep us all posted. Good luck - you will need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
how241 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Spread you risk around...Don't make the mistake of putting all your eggs in one basket. If you fall down, you lose everything. Try and control your max risk to what you can comfortable afford to lose. Good Luck ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You are shorting CADTHB? Good luck with that one. he is shorting CAD vs. USD and from what i see he hasn't made a single penny today. CADUSD.jpg now down 1,4 million Baht CAD.jpg Poor OP, taking a vicious beating. The problem with shorting is you can lose much more than your original investment. i assume the OP has put a stop loss that would normally prevent that he's losing more than he invested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanna3030 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 hi, hi, hi............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Unless you had more in your account than the $447K initial margin, IB has already started auto-liquidating your position. IB gives me a maintenance margin of 357K for that trade, and right now you're down 120K which is more than the margin buffer you had. How many contracts do you have left? I'm down 90K and am feeling your pain. The question is- is it going to bounce off the pivot @0.9026 and reverse, or is it going to keep going up... CADUSD 0.9038 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BwindiBoy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Please die quietly... but I hope that takes a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnx37 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 See above - I made a big mistake! I did not lose AUD200k - I lost AUD400k. Whatever the exchange rate, this is serious $$$ in my books. Simply,I was unaware of my exposure, If you sell AUD & buy USD, & both go against you = big trouble! My recollection is that this all took place in about 1 month - GFC. It took me decades of hard slog to accumulate this $$$ (after income tax). If only I had understood the extent of the risk - too late now! I thought that I was playing it safe - realising paper profits. Advisors cannot lose - they get a commission whether you win or lose. I guess that ignorance is bliss. My "bet" - most "players" lose with only a few select winners. I am waiting to hear about your strategies & emotions when you are sitting on a losing bet. Then you need to be super cool - too cool for me. To the "players" in this post, please provide details of your punt & give a running commentary thereof - amount of bet. potential risk, paper profits & losses, strategies etc. It is cheaper to be a spectator.. Again, I wish you & all the other "punters/gamblers" on this post the very best of luck - you need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
advancebooking Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At 13:11, the $CAD March 2013 contract is trading at .8979 That is a change of .0012 X 300 contracts for a profit of 1.2 million baht if I closed immediately. For 1 hour of doing nothing. I am not making this stuff up. You can make incredible money with futures. But the real money is not implying the hourly swings but holding out for the home run. If the dollar goes to where I hope, by next year I will have an additional 150 million baht. Of course, if it goes against me, I walk away with my life savings gone. I would be really careful if I were you. Your taking huge risks in the short term and a lot of your comments are emphasising the big returns. But what about the potential for HUGE LOSSES!!!! Why do you think that most traders dont take long term outlooks on these contracts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wordchild Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 .9028 right now looking slightly better for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suradit69 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 (edited) No, you cannot buy futures for $CAD-THB. Everything is denominated to $USD. Why would I lie about this? I have nothing to gain by pretending to short 300 contracts. The reason I brought this topic up is because most traders don't hold positions long term so I'm trying a different strategy. If you don't believe you can make 3 million baht in 1 hour in futures, then you are wrong. Did someone tell you different? Some traders make $10 million $USD in a minute. 100 contracts will give you $1 million USD in a move of 1 cent. When employment or monetary information is realized, I've seen moves of 1.5 cents in 2 minutes. Do the math. I am short 300 March 2013 $CAD contracts. Each contract is worth $100,000, however its only a delivery promise so you don't actually need the money to trade. Commission was $2000 on Interactive. I've been doing forex trading for a year now and I've done very well as I started shorting when the $CAD was at .98 At .90 in 7 months, its made money for a lot of traders. Instead of anger and hostility towards my information, why not try and learn so you can make money for yourself. I don't understand why this topic makes people talk about stuff like a bus to BigC. You don't believe people make money trading? One trip to New York City will open your eyes. "Why would I lie about this? I have nothing to gain by pretending to short 300 contracts." Have you ever read through some of the posts on Yahoo Finance or Seeking Alpha? There are a lot of Walter Mittys there telling everyone about their trades that are in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions. And most of the impressive successes are spoken of only in the past tense and involve buying at (or even below) recent intraday lows and selling at (or above) intraday highs. And these million dollar wheelers and dealers have the time to share their (historical) successes on Yahoo (an appropriate name if there ever was one). I agree that the current sentiment is against the AUS$ and CAD$ versus the US$, but at the same time you're saying you want to remove emotions from your trades, but you're making the emotional decision to stick with a trade in a volatile market well beyond a reasonably predictable time frame. "Trading" implies just that and I don't know of anyone who "invests" long term in a forex position with the only criteria being that they'll stick with it until they become a millionaire or a pauper. Conditions in commodities and currency change continually and suddenly, and they don't move in a single direction for extended periods ... which is something a lot of big time holders of gold have slowly come to realize or more recently people going long nat gas. Edited February 3, 2014 by Suradit69 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennisrobertpell Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 When fiat paper money crashes and burns the only thing left of value will be Gold and Silver. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little mary sunshine Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You'll have the same chance of becoming that multi millionaire if you take the money to Vagas and bet it all on black at the roulette table. As for me, I'll never be the multi millionaire, however in a 1% to 3% return economy I'm getting a good 5.5% to 6% on my "safe" investments.....I plan to always keep the money I have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JesseFrank Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You are shorting CADTHB? Good luck with that one. he is shorting CAD vs. USD and from what i see he hasn't made a single penny today. CADUSD.jpg now down 1,4 million Baht CAD.jpg Where has the Troll oops OP gone ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kharashima Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I chose two companies and tried for the first time on the Internet. I never made any money and requested for the refund of the balance remaining, but I never got my money back. It happened about 6 months ago. I hope that this gentleman can give me his advice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
advancebooking Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 i wonder if this thread is sponsored by interactive- sales and marketing team? I speculate that maybe they get on a lot of the forums around the world with this carefully worded script; multiple users but one nerd behind the screen who works at Interactive?????? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wat dee Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 R.I.P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Showbags Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Where is the OP ? I hope he does not live in a tall building. Anyone else think this is all just a bit of show and tell... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletchsmile Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 A leveraged troll. How quaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludacris Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 (edited) I can assure you I'm a legit retail trader with IB. I also read a lot about them on the net and it's probably because they're the #1 broker for active traders hands-down. Without giving them too much free advertising, you can trade worldwide markets, futures, and forex from a single account with the cheapest commissions and margin rates found anywhere. For example, US shares are $0.005/shares (yes, half a cent a share) and you can borrow a million dollars of margin for only 1.12% a year. If your a real high roller and want to borrow hundreds of millions the rate drops to about 0.5%! Try and beat that anywhere else! Also, their platform accepts API's (or 3rd party software connections), so if you write trading code in C# like I do you can connect directly from programs like NinjaTrader or Excel. And their online account management and margin calculations are the best I've ever seen. Sure there's other brokers for active traders, but many of them won't even look at non-residents and a couple I did find had horrible account opening procedures. Another broker I was with didn't have real-time margin monitoring and told me I had to do my own calculations! With IB my account was open the same day and margin calculations are updated real-time. With this trade from the OP I'm down about 71K at the moment and the CAD seems to be oscillating back and forth about the .9026 pivot. I have no idea what it's going to do long term and I would never trade this size in real life. If this was for real I would have only traded 5-10 contracts and would have put a stop at the 1-week resistance of 0.9016 and I would have gotten stopped out already for a loss of about 1-1.5K. Also, I rarely enter trades that are this far extended from the 50 day moving avg. Even though the general trend is down, it could climb up and test the 50-day, which would be about a $1 million loss for 300 contracts. It's possible the OP got over-confident from the last trade he exited early that went his way. The pattern is perfectly described in the trading books. What asiamint wrote on the previous page is golden. I've said it before, but with any spectulative trade you have to only think about the risk you are taking or the worst case senario, not place the trade thinking about how much you're going to make. Even the market wizards all talk about how important it is to control risk. This is described perfectly on p.15-20 of 'Mastering the Trade' by John Carter (in fact the first 2 chapters of that book should be required reading for any trader - especially the part called 'Why do most traders have to blow out an account before it all sinks in?) To the OP, you spent your life building a successful business and then selling it at its peak- don't lose it all in a few months of trading. I think you should take a few months off and study fulltime. I'm not trying to be a prick, just trying to give you some honest advice. Let me just say I'm glad I didn't have access to my locked-in money during my first few years of trading. I just checked and p.17-20 of 'Mastering the Trade' are available as free preview on Amazon. That book, along with "The Disciplined Trader, and 'A Random Walk Down Wallstreet', will definitely prolong your trading life. Edited February 3, 2014 by Ludacris 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ggt Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 No, you cannot buy futures for $CAD-THB. Everything is denominated to $USD. Why would I lie about this? I have nothing to gain by pretending to short 300 contracts. The reason I brought this topic up is because most traders don't hold positions long term so I'm trying a different strategy. If you don't believe you can make 3 million baht in 1 hour in futures, then you are wrong. Did someone tell you different? Some traders make $10 million $USD in a minute. 100 contracts will give you $1 million USD in a move of 1 cent. When employment or monetary information is realized, I've seen moves of 1.5 cents in 2 minutes. Do the math. I am short 300 March 2013 $CAD contracts. Each contract is worth $100,000, however its only a delivery promise so you don't actually need the money to trade. Commission was $2000 on Interactive. I've been doing forex trading for a year now and I've done very well as I started shorting when the $CAD was at .98 At .90 in 7 months, its made money for a lot of traders. Instead of anger and hostility towards my information, why not try and learn so you can make money for yourself. I don't understand why this topic makes people talk about stuff like a bus to BigC. You don't believe people make money trading? One trip to New York City will open your eyes. What happens if the $CAD goes up instead of down...how much do you stand to loose? Are you forced to buy at some point in time...taking your loses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loptr Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I am waiting to hear about your strategies & emotions when you are sitting on a losing bet. Only you can define your risk threshold. If I'm sitting on a losing trade, I already know what my stop limits are and have defined my risk before entering a trade. If you are entering trades without defining entry point, take profit and stop loss, you are no better off than the tourist down at the casino betting on black to win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnx37 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This post commenced @ 12:27pm today & 8 hours later, there are 47 responses - one every 10 minutes! "Whereustay", "Suradit69" & others, when did you commence trading, initial capital investment, potential loss, regularity of trades, prior knowledge/eucation etc & most importantly, what is your success in USD as of today (paper profits/losses included). I find this topic fascinating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAS21 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I see it closed at .9038 ... is he winning or jumping ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinom Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yep... I have lost a lot on forex at first. Why? Too high leverage and greed! Now I only trade what I can afford to loose and I cash out regularely when in profit! My seed money is back and I only risk my profits. No huge Bingo but no suicidal lost! Only thing I plan to keep invested for one year is not directly on forex but 25% of the bitcoins I got as profit! 25% already cashed, 25% to cash out before the end of march, and 25% to cash whenever I want or need... My advice: take profit and play again PART of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The long-term bet is reasonably safe, short CAD/USD, but I have to agree that the short-term swings could wipe out this position. My suggestion would be, at the very least, that OP should hedge his bet with staggered call options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suradit69 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 When fiat paper money crashes and burns the only thing left of value will be Gold and Silver. Possibly, but timing is still an issue. This alleged hyper price-inflation and the paper money crash have been predicted for a long time. And in the meantime, holding gold doesn't provide much in the way of income. I'm long some physical gold, but practically speaking you'll still need to change the gold into paper money to buy most things. Buying a loaf of bread directly with some gold presents a lot of difficulties. And I would be reluctant to rely on gold ETFs that are supposedly backed by gold held in a bank vault somewhere. You don't have to be a wild eyed conspiracy theorist to wonder about price manipulation of precious metals and dubious claims of gold held in a secret location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 (edited) Sorry for the OP... the CAD is now at 0.904... Unlike the OP I'm not trading futures, but trading spot (outright long/short). Futures have an expiry/fulfillment date. And "futures" traded off exchange are not called futures, but "forwards". I have been trading FX for some time. 2012 has been a great year for me, but 2013 was not so great... Edited February 3, 2014 by manarak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manarak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I see it closed at .9038 ... is he winning or jumping ... it doesn't close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudRight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I don't know what a 'contract' is, but 1.2 mil/0.0012 = 1.4 billion baht. I recommend you take your billions and trade something more secure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank James Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I have no idea what you guys are talking about, but it's a real education for an ignorant peckerwood like me. It just seems to a casual observer that the OP is having a massive ego rush based on some early success. If I were in a game like this, I wouldn't go out in public and brag up my "system", I'd keep it under my hat. Interesting stuff, though, and a welcome diversion from the malignant current political scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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