How do you envisage the future of Thailand?

[LiveInHope]

As a long-term expat resident who would like to spend your remaining years here - how do you personally envisage the future of Thailand?

1. Where do think Thailand is headed in the immediate future - next 12 months?

2. What do you visualize as happening here within the next 10 years?

The questions are aimed at long-term expats living here with 'feet-on-the-ground experience not the armchair trolls who answer anything and everything to increase their posts. I believe that they are also unsuitable for members with hard line support of any particular political party as their answers will contain bias towards their leanings, though I hope to stand corrected if sound reasoning is included.

I have personal reasons in asking for opinions which I will explain when the thread has been exhausted of answers. They are not easy questions to answer by any means; however any serious input will be gratefully received.

Speculation as to my reasons need not be addressed as it is not in the questions

Many thanks.

[seajae]

well if this is not a troll post then I would say that once the shins are removed from the scene Thailand should do quite well. The only thing holding it back are all the finances that are being used to pander/ bribe their supporters. once it goes back into genuine renenue and used for the betterment of the whole country it will make a heap of difference. As long as we have the reds/yellows at each others throats everything is uncertain but if thaksin/the shins can be removed from the scene there is a good chance the country will do very well, especially if all the corruption can be controlled/eliminated and the police start doing what they are paid to do. Still lots of maybe's but I am hopefull and will be here to watch it unfold.

[GooEng]

Getting the Shins off the scene is feasible, but the cops doing what they are paid to do? You are havin' a laugh ain't ya? Never gonna happen....

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Showbags]

without me.

I am sure they will miss me.

[Soutpeel]

As sad as it sounds I personally think things are going to get worse in the short term before things get better

The current cycle of election, protest, coup, election protest etc has to be broken, there needs to be fundemental changes in the whole poltical system, the starting point will be getting the Shins out the way..but still a long way to go, next step is getting rid of the systemic corruption in all spheres of life etc.

Thailand really needs a strong, "honest" leader to move them forward...a lot to ask for I know

[wym]

I think any serious attempt to "get the Shins" out will result in some pretty major violence, suppressing those deep genuine feelings of loyalty with violence will just make things worse and deepen the rifts long-term.

The best path forward is for the opposition to figure out that they need to get in the game, marshal their not inconsiderable skills and resources to manipulate a pseudo-democracy as the elites of our home countries do.

They just need to coordinate with each other better in order to outspend and outmaneuver the Shin machine, rather than remaining fragmented.

However unfortunately I think they're too arrogant to stoop to pandering to the common people, so can't see much stability unless they back down for another few years, at some point every empire crumbles. . .

[thailiketoo]

As sad as it sounds I personally think things are going to get worse in the short term before things get better

The current cycle of election, protest, coup, election protest etc has to be broken, there needs to be fundemental changes in the whole poltical system, the starting point will be getting the Shins out the way..but still a long way to go, next step is getting rid of the systemic corruption in all spheres of life etc.

Thailand really needs a strong, "honest" leader to move them forward...a lot to ask for I know

Of course this has never happened. World War II happened and still the cycle of election, protest, coup and election persisted. So good luck.

[David48]

I used to attend my local Stockbroker's 12 month forecasts at the beginning of the New Financial Year.

Great finger food, free drinks.

Sadly the information was less then reliable.

I have less confident in predictions about to be foretold on Thailand's future and the combinations and permutations that could ensure over the coming weeks, months and years add to an almost infinite number of possible outcomes ... almost all beyond the influence of a Thai person, let alone an Alien Westerner.

As for "I have personal reasons in asking for opinions which I will explain when the thread has been exhausted of answers." ...

[thailiketoo]

I think any serious attempt to "get the Shins" out will result in some pretty major violence, suppressing those deep genuine feelings of loyalty with violence will just make things worse and deepen the rifts long-term.

The best path forward is for the opposition to figure out that they need to get in the game, marshal their not inconsiderable skills and resources to manipulate a pseudo-democracy as the elites of our home countries do.

They just need to coordinate with each other better in order to outspend and outmaneuver the Shin machine, rather than remaining fragmented.

However unfortunately I think they're too arrogant to stoop to pandering to the common people, so can't see much stability unless they back down for another few years, at some point every empire crumbles. . .

You wrote, "However unfortunately I think they're too arrogant to stoop to pandering to the common people" Too funny. Lets see, I'll get a list of governments that don't pander to the common people, Syria, Russia, China, North Korea and the Vatican. Did I miss any?

Or did I read that wrong. Did you mean the Yellow shirts are too arrogant?

Edited February 11, 2014 by thailiketoo

[wym]

I think any serious attempt to "get the Shins" out will result in some pretty major violence, suppressing those deep genuine feelings of loyalty with violence will just make things worse and deepen the rifts long-term.

The best path forward is for the opposition to figure out that they need to get in the game, marshal their not inconsiderable skills and resources to manipulate a pseudo-democracy as the elites of our home countries do.

They just need to coordinate with each other better in order to outspend and outmaneuver the Shin machine, rather than remaining fragmented.

However unfortunately I think they're too arrogant to stoop to pandering to the common people, so can't see much stability unless they back down for another few years, at some point every empire crumbles. . .

You wrote, "However unfortunately I think they're too arrogant to stoop to pandering to the common people" Too funny. Lets see, I'll get a list of governments that don't pander to the common people, Syria, Russia, China, North Korea and the Vatican. Did I miss any?

Or did I read that wrong. Did you mean the Yellow shirts are too arrogant?

I thought I wrote clearly enough. All the bolded pronouns above follow from and refer to the main subject "the opposition". Some people call them "yellows" I suppose, don't know how accurate that is.

I meant those elites currently opposed to the current "Shin" government. If they just get their act together and start pandering to the common people to the extent necessary to actually win elections in a pseudo-democracy - just like all our corrupt elites back home have to, they can take control back and divvy up the spoils as they like.

Further coups, or trying to further rig the system through anti-democratic kludgey workarounds will IMO lead to escalating conflict, possible open civil violence on a much larger scale.

[HardenedSoul]

well if this is not a troll post then I would say that once the shins are removed from the scene Thailand should do quite well. The only thing holding it back are all the finances that are being used to pander/ bribe their supporters. once it goes back into genuine renenue and used for the betterment of the whole country it will make a heap of difference. As long as we have the reds/yellows at each others throats everything is uncertain but if thaksin/the shins can be removed from the scene there is a good chance the country will do very well, especially if all the corruption can be controlled/eliminated and the police start doing what they are paid to do. Still lots of maybe's but I am hopefull and will be here to watch it unfold.

Yes because the "Shins" are the only source of corruption in Thai power structures.

It didn't exist before they arrived on the political landscape.

Put bluntly, the anti-government protesters MUST fail because if they don't, it WILL mean civil war.

The big business interests backing Suthep should be tried and shot for high treason.

Edited February 11, 2014 by HardenedSoul

[villagefarang]

In the more than 36 years I have lived here, I have heard nearly every flavor of gloom and doom. Strangely I have often done better during the more convoluted periods of recent Thai history.

I guess it make people feel better to pontificate and prognosticate about the future, trying to make sense of something which is so confusing and unknowable.

I continue to feel confident that most people are resilient and will find a way to navigate whatever comes and that nobody knows what the future holds.

[trainman34014]

Errr..........hang on i'll ask my wife...she knows everything !

[Thai at Heart]

Turbulent and not going forward as quickly as it should.

No real plan for the next year, asean on its doorstep and a hacked off rural.community feeling very unappreciated.

[LiveInHope]

No – this is definitely not a troll post.

I appreciate the time some of you took to answer.

My reasons for posting this thread are not as naïve as would maybe appear. I just believe before making any life-changing moves that all angles should be explored and that one little piece of information that could have been over-looked or an idea or thought on a different tangent could bring a new angle on things.

I have been here for 40 years, started with nothing and built a good life for my family, my children and now grandchildren. I have been married to the same lovely lady for 35 years and we have been successful through some really grim times.

Unfortunately during this time here, we have seen Thailand continually going through turmoil. There have been brief periods of respite but these were predictable as were all the coups, demonstrations and riots.

With the advent of the Shin era we should have left, but we have stayed on in the hope that one day it will get better. If we were younger we would probably give it another 10 years to see the outcome; however we do not have that luxury and now have growing concerns about the economy which could affect the younger family’s business interests.

We have decided to leave as an entire family and head for the Mediterranean. It is with great sadness we do so as we will leave many good friends behind including a couple of members on TV, but mostly Thai who have helped us so much in so many ways , not least with business. Sad it may be, but even sadder is that we have Thai friends who are also departing Thailand for other shores such as Singapore, Myanmar and Malaysia where they will set up new businesses. These are people with very serious money from well known Thai companies. It is not a case of rats leaving the sinking ship - but the captains deciding to scuttle the ships at sea and look for a new command.

It will take us a few months to offload everything and move. I hope that beautiful Thailand will find a compatible route to appeasing all facets of the community. We have never been politically supportive of any party here, but I see for the first time that Khun Suthep may be the catalyst that Thailand has needed for years. Of course he faces trumped up charges on numerous fronts, none of which hold water but that is to be expected from a regime that is pulling straws. To hold a black card against the ‘elites’ in Thailand is cutting off noses to spite the face. Without them, the poorer Thais would have even less and they are slowly coming around to realise that.

Thanks for your input. Most unfortunately there was nothing there that could make us change our minds and the future is seen by you with the same uncertainty as we see it. I really appreciate the time that some of you took to answer.

[stickylies]

1/ more and more tourists will go to burma and less to thailand

2/ burma will become economically more powerful than thailand (explaining why TS is with one leg in burma already)

3/ the ever rather low-profile burmese (i mean all major ethnics in burma and not just bamar) will laugh with thailand's hubris (they already do so now btw)

[thailiketoo]

People are different. When I came here for the first time. I didn't ask anyone. Everyone who knew said it was a dumb idea. That was 40 years ago. Now when I stay here I don't ask anyone if I should stay. My children think it is a dumb idea. They wants gramps to babysit back home in the West. Well I kind of babysit here. My baby sits on my lap at the pub and feeds me chicken wings. I think Suthep is a dummy and it's about time the elites started bargaining with the masses. I think the decreasing numbers at the protest sites are the signal that Suthep is on the decline. In any event Suthep or Yingluck both are brain trusts and honest as the day is long when compared to Obama and boys back home. So I'll stay here.

[Suradit69]

well if this is not a troll post then I would say that once the shins are removed from the scene Thailand should do quite well. The only thing holding it back are all the finances that are being used to pander/ bribe their supporters. once it goes back into genuine renenue and used for the betterment of the whole country it will make a heap of difference. As long as we have the reds/yellows at each others throats everything is uncertain but if thaksin/the shins can be removed from the scene there is a good chance the country will do very well, especially if all the corruption can be controlled/eliminated and the police start doing what they are paid to do. Still lots of maybe's but I am hopefull and will be here to watch it unfold.

well if this is not a troll post

It's hard to imagine what value could be obtained from asking this question here at the hub-of-self-absorbed-whiners.

The results should be as meaningful as if you asked what posters thought of the Rienmann Hypothesis regarding the distribution of prime numbers.

[thailiketoo]

1/ more and more tourists will go to burma and less to thailand

2/ burma will become economically more powerful than thailand (explaining why TS is with one leg in burma already)

3/ the ever rather low-profile burmese (i mean all major ethnics in burma and not just bamar) will laugh with thailand's hubris (they already do so now btw)

The average Thai cable TV subscriber spends more on TV than the average Burmese person makes total in a year.

I think the maids for the hotels will come from Burma to work in Thailand for the foreseeable future rather than the reverse. Do the Royhingas come from Burma? Do they laugh a lot? I think the Thai treatment of the Royhinga is terrible but they are trying to escape from Burma for a reason.

[donmuang37]

I've been here for 11 years, and have never seen the people so fragmented. So I believe that things will, indeed, get worse before they get better.

Seajae and others blame all the problems on Preu Thai (Thaksin & Co.) Do I believe they are corrupt? Sure, I think so. Do I believe the Democrats or any other party are clean? Not in a million years! Corruption was a way of life in Thailand for hundreds of years, long before Thaksin came to power. He just figured out how to be more efficient at it, in my opinion.

The Democrats haven't been able to win an election for about 19 years. They were in power from about 2009 to 2011 due to the coup and its outcome. So why didn't they eliminate corruption?? They had their chance, but didn't even try. Was it because they were benefiting as the party in power?

Personally, I think this struggle is simply between the old elite and the new elite over who will have political power, and the benefits that go with it. In my opinion, when Suthep says he wants "reforms" before elections, he means gerrymandering the parliamentary districts so the Democrats will win and Preu Thai is sure to lose. Is Suthep in favor of real reforms? Well, check his past history, and you decide.

In the long run, Thailand has a history of muddling along politically and doing pretty well economically. By doing pretty well, I mean fabulously well for the 20 or so families that reportedly control about 80% of the wealth in Thailand. The rest of the folks are thrown just enough crumbs to get by, some as working poor and the lucky ones as middle class.

I'm settled, have a job, own a home and a couple of vehicles, so I'll just hunker down and try to wait it out while smelling the roses whenever I can. Day to day life is still generally pleasant.

[connda]

Same same but different. Probably another 1997 type banking crisis followed by recovery. Watch the other BRICs in the wall. The government? Different faces - same problems. If the Trans Pacific Partnership TPP is adopted in whole, expect the quality of living for the average Thais to suffer while BMW and Mercedes sales increase.

Life in rural Thailand? Same as it ever was.

Edited February 12, 2014 by connda

[David48]

OP - Good Luck with your move.

I hope the next place you call home has given you as much enjoyment as living in thailand.

Cheers ...

[swissie]

well if this is not a troll post then I would say that once the shins are removed from the scene Thailand should do quite well. The only thing holding it back are all the finances that are being used to pander/ bribe their supporters. once it goes back into genuine renenue and used for the betterment of the whole country it will make a heap of difference. As long as we have the reds/yellows at each others throats everything is uncertain but if thaksin/the shins can be removed from the scene there is a good chance the country will do very well, especially if all the corruption can be controlled/eliminated and the police start doing what they are paid to do. Still lots of maybe's but I am hopefull and will be here to watch it unfold.

Yes because the "Shins" are the only source of corruption in Thai power structures.

It didn't exist before they arrived on the political landscape.

Put bluntly, the anti-government protesters MUST fail because if they don't, it WILL mean civil war.

The big business interests backing Suthep should be tried and shot for high treason.

"Yes because the "Shins" are the only source of corruption in Thai power structures."

Above can not be meant as a serious comment (a joke?). Before the "shins", corruption-money just went into other pockets. The "old-pockets" MUST regain power, in order to re-fill their pockets again. As they have done so for the last 100 years or longer, before the "shins" stole the show.

Cheers.

[bbbbooboo]

I suggest the outlook looks poor based on the evidence that we have all seen recently

[Skint]

Need to do more than get rid of current government, replacing them with who is another question expect political turbulence every 2-3 years when the dummy gets spat out. I reckon Bangkok will look like Egypt in the coming years

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[thailiketoo]

I suggest the outlook looks poor based on the evidence that we have all seen recently

Ya all should have been here the day after the A bomb was dropped on the Thai ally in 1945. Recently has been just a walk in the park in comparison.

Edited February 12, 2014 by thailiketoo

[bunuel]

This post is the most sensible answer I could find on the thread. I have been living here for 7 years, and I have been preparing to move for the past year. I have been working for a large

international organization in Africa trying to patch up what is commonly known as a "failed state", and, while I hardly think Thailand qualifies as one, I think serious efforts at mediation are

required to get both parties to work together for the good of the country. The problem is that I don't see anyone on the Thai scene who could serve as a mediator. While I am no fan

of Mr. Thaksin, anyone with an open mind can see how he managed to win elections; he was offering a large number of people what seemed to be a better deal through improvement

of infrastructure, medical insurance, etc. In this respect, I don't see him as very different from any populist Third World leader, such as Lula da Silva in Brazil.

In most Third World countries, there is a problem of income disparity, with an established elite and an impoverished majority. The difference lies in how the countries handle the income disparity.

In South America, people saw what happened in Cuba and Chile, and went through a long and winding road of dictatorships and new liberal economic policies before the power elite

began to se that the emergence of democratic populism of the Lula brand was a better deal for them than the Fidel or Hugo Chavez brand. As a result, in the 1990'S , a few of the dominant families

began to support Lula, and he was suddenly able to become president. Whether or not this was because Lula " sold out", or because the elite realized change was necessary, is another

discussion. The bottom line was that conditions improved for the great majority of people, there was social stability, and Brazil became an economic powerhouse.

Of course, Brazil still has huge problems and demonstrations , but it is progressing, simply because the opposing parties realized they had to work together and find compromise.

I see one of the big problems here in Thailand is the resistance of some members of the elite to even consider change, and I have been dismayed by the hate speech coming from

the PDRC, as well as their lack of respect for the democratic process. The notion that corruption began with the Shinawatra clan is ludicrous - corruption exists everywhere in the world,

Thailand is hardly exempt from this universal phenomenon. If one wants to have a serious discussion about eliminating corruption, the first step would be to eliminate impunity

and establish a rule of law. And then one would have to decided if the Singapore or the Chinese model was preferable for dealing with the guilty parties.

Unfortunately, I have not seen any plan from te PRDC for reform; instead, it seems they want to create what amounts to a fascist state, without any regard for the views of the majority;

fortunately, the army has widely avoided getting dragged into this conflict, and it was heartening to see General Prayuth voting on election day. He, above all, may be the man to

mediate this conflict before it destroys the country. By the way, Thailand does not live in a geopolitical bubble, and if things disintegrate here, you can be sure outside players

like China will be quick to pounce. Thus far, all countries and international media have supported democracy and the rule of law in Thailand, because there is a lot at stake.

Hopefully, wiser heads will heed this advice and work together to find a solution for the good of the country, There is no alternative.

I've been here for 11 years, and have never seen the people so fragmented. So I believe that things will, indeed, get worse before they get better.

Seajae and others blame all the problems on Preu Thai (Thaksin & Co.) Do I believe they are corrupt? Sure, I think so. Do I believe the Democrats or any other party are clean? Not in a million years! Corruption was a way of life in Thailand for hundreds of years, long before Thaksin came to power. He just figured out how to be more efficient at it, in my opinion.

The Democrats haven't been able to win an election for about 19 years. They were in power from about 2009 to 2011 due to the coup and its outcome. So why didn't they eliminate corruption?? They had their chance, but didn't even try. Was it because they were benefiting as the party in power?

Personally, I think this struggle is simply between the old elite and the new elite over who will have political power, and the benefits that go with it. In my opinion, when Suthep says he wants "reforms" before elections, he means gerrymandering the parliamentary districts so the Democrats will win and Preu Thai is sure to lose. Is Suthep in favor of real reforms? Well, check his past history, and you decide.

In the long run, Thailand has a history of muddling along politically and doing pretty well economically. By doing pretty well, I mean fabulously well for the 20 or so families that reportedly control about 80% of the wealth in Thailand. The rest of the folks are thrown just enough crumbs to get by, some as working poor and the lucky ones as middle class.

I'm settled, have a job, own a home and a couple of vehicles, so I'll just hunker down and try to wait it out while smelling the roses whenever I can. Day to day life is still generally pleasant.

[ggt]

No – this is definitely not a troll post.

I appreciate the time some of you took to answer.

My reasons for posting this thread are not as naïve as would maybe appear. I just believe before making any life-changing moves that all angles should be explored and that one little piece of information that could have been over-looked or an idea or thought on a different tangent could bring a new angle on things.

I have been here for 40 years, started with nothing and built a good life for my family, my children and now grandchildren. I have been married to the same lovely lady for 35 years and we have been successful through some really grim times.

Unfortunately during this time here, we have seen Thailand continually going through turmoil. There have been brief periods of respite but these were predictable as were all the coups, demonstrations and riots.

With the advent of the Shin era we should have left, but we have stayed on in the hope that one day it will get better. If we were younger we would probably give it another 10 years to see the outcome; however we do not have that luxury and now have growing concerns about the economy which could affect the younger family’s business interests.

We have decided to leave as an entire family and head for the Mediterranean. It is with great sadness we do so as we will leave many good friends behind including a couple of members on TV, but mostly Thai who have helped us so much in so many ways , not least with business. Sad it may be, but even sadder is that we have Thai friends who are also departing Thailand for other shores such as Singapore, Myanmar and Malaysia where they will set up new businesses. These are people with very serious money from well known Thai companies. It is not a case of rats leaving the sinking ship - but the captains deciding to scuttle the ships at sea and look for a new command.

It will take us a few months to offload everything and move. I hope that beautiful Thailand will find a compatible route to appeasing all facets of the community. We have never been politically supportive of any party here, but I see for the first time that Khun Suthep may be the catalyst that Thailand has needed for years. Of course he faces trumped up charges on numerous fronts, none of which hold water but that is to be expected from a regime that is pulling straws. To hold a black card against the ‘elites’ in Thailand is cutting off noses to spite the face. Without them, the poorer Thais would have even less and they are slowly coming around to realise that.

Thanks for your input. Most unfortunately there was nothing there that could make us change our minds and the future is seen by you with the same uncertainty as we see it. I really appreciate the time that some of you took to answer.

Left Thailand 4 months ago...for many of the same reasons you stated here...happy I did so...I can only imagine how tough the decision to see everything you have worked so hard to achieve...for so many years...having to be sold or given away...good luck to you and your family...you are a brave soul...Thailand is not the best place in the world to live...

[Utley]

Thai citizens lack a choice other than a self-centred deposed PM operating from offshore through surrogates, and a political party representing elite and Bangkok middle-class interests which can never win an election with its present leadership and ancien régime attitudes. Thailand is in a deep political morass that is hurting the country economically and the public psychologically. The country has not been prepared for the future and I see a slow downward spiral as a result.

As my retirement income emanates from outside the country, a falling baht benefits me while hurting my Thai neighbors. The best I can do is to spend locally to put baht into my neighbor's pockets. Also as I live in the rural central provinces, I share my neighbor's attitude that what happens in Bangkok stays in Bangkok.

But the country as a whole has seen its glory days come and go. The world is moving forward and leaving Thailand behind; R.I.P.

[Ajaan]

well if this is not a troll post then I would say that once the shins are removed from the scene Thailand should do quite well. The only thing holding it back are all the finances that are being used to pander/ bribe their supporters. once it goes back into genuine renenue and used for the betterment of the whole country it will make a heap of difference. As long as we have the reds/yellows at each others throats everything is uncertain but if thaksin/the shins can be removed from the scene there is a good chance the country will do very well, especially if all the corruption can be controlled/eliminated and the police start doing what they are paid to do. Still lots of maybe's but I am hopefull and will be here to watch it unfold.

Hahahahaha...oh, c'mon, can you hear yourself talk?!?! Do you REALLY believe that corruption in Thailand began with--and will end with--one family, one administration?! Dream on, dream on...