Two prospects now for Thailand, and neither is any good

[webfact]

GUEST COLUMN
Two prospects now for Thailand, and neither is any good
Simon Tay



BANGKOK: -- Anti-government protests in Bangkok have lasted more than three months, and yet continue to confuse. Much of the international media assert the sanctity of the vote above all else. Most overly rely on distinctions that the red shirts represent the poor, and the yellows are the elite - as if simple colour-coding could explain complexities.

Rather than trying to understand, many have prejudged events. Developments over the past three weeks will further confound them, as a new stage in the situation seems to be emerging.

Much relates to the vote that went ahead on February 2 despite disruptions at some polling stations. The opposition Democrats had sought a delay and the Elections Commission agreed a postponement could be allowed. Nevertheless, the government exercised its prerogative to push ahead.

Today, although full results are yet to be confirmed, what is emerging may not vindicate Premier Yingluck Shinawatra's snap poll gamble.

The South - where the Democrats are strongest - did not complete voting and, without these provinces, a new Parliament cannot convene. In other provinces where voting went ahead, unofficial reports say that less than half of the eligible voters bothered to do so.

More, early sampling by the well-respected Thailand Development Research Institute suggests support for the ruling Pheu Thai party may show erosion. Questions are being asked about the caretaker government's effectiveness and legitimacy.

New pressure is emerging in the streets. Rice farmers are now protesting alongside anti-government demonstrators rallied by former Democrat deputy premier Suthep Thaugsuban, who are stubbornly resisting police attempts to quash the rallies. The farmers' presence in Bangkok is a visible setback for Shinawatra supporters.

The Pheu Thai pledge at the last elections to subsidise rice farmers attracted strong support from rural areas but was always controversial economic policy. The subsidies have cost billions in taxpayer money and made rice exports uncompetitive - the country has slipped from the top spot to No 3 in the world.

The farmers' complaints cast further doubt on the social benefits of the scheme. On top of this, investigations for corruption have caused the Chinese to back away from an earlier pledge to buy rice.

Contrary to Premier Yingluck's hopes, her administration looks shakier after the elections than it did before. Yingluck is under further pressure after being charged by the Anti-Corription Commission for negligence in overseeing the rice scheme. However, this does not mean that the protesters led by Suthep will have their way.

Protesters' demands for a non-elected committee to run the country, and that the Shinawatras be banned from politics, are unacceptable not only to the international community but to many moderate Thais.

While it has not ruled out a coup, the military is clearly reluctant to seize power, as it did in 2006. Instead, calls are emerging for a new caretaker government that is neutral - featuring neither Suthep nor the opposition Democrat Party. This would only be an interim arrangement to review Constitutional and other rules so that a free and fair election can be held.

If this or some other compromise cannot be reached, two prospects arise. Neither is any good.

The first is for violence, beyond what has been seen so far. There is increasing impatience on both sides and violence can spike - especially if the red shirts and others who still support the Yingluck administration come out into the streets.

The second is an economic crisis. At present, stronger companies and the industrial sector remain confident even as smaller businesses and the tourism sector are feeling the impact. But a protracted stalemate and paralysis of the Yingluck administration will worsen matters.

In the wake of the US Fed tapering, emerging economies with deteriorating macro-economic figures or visible political instability are being punished by skittish markets. Thailand is drifting towards both these tendencies.

As anti-government protests gear up and pro-Shinawatra supporters dig in their heels, it is hard to discern what compromise might be acceptable. The majority of Thais however realise that, despite elections, no one is winning.

Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, an independent think tank that was recently ranked by a global survey as No 1 in Asia and the Pacific.


-- The Nation 2014-02-22

[michaeljordan]

Rather dull writing and he told us nothing we did not already know.

Funny sitting in Singapore talking about democracy. I did not know you had any idea what it was.

1860

The United States of America had an election.

The South refused to vote for Lincoln but did vote because they knew that Lincoln needed NO SUCH thing as a certain percentage not voting to stop him.

So let me get this straight Thailand.

if a certain percentage does not vote than the election is void?

So the Reds can simply refuse to vote to stop your yellows from ever winning as well.

But this story is dull.

Ghandi and Mandellah knew how to take down a ruling class. Just simply shut the economy down.

Nothing rich people hate more than losing money.

[Thai at Heart]

Fluff and supposition.

[noitom]

We know that Thais will always experience violence in their protests. Just look back to Thai history in 1973, 76, and 91/92. Thais will experience economic consequences of it's political and corruption cancer.

This guy Simon Tay looks great in his pin stripe suit and matching tie and handkerchief along with nice silk shirt. This conference looks like it uses the same little nut cups as United Airlines business class from Tokyo to Bangkok used. That is until United recently announced is withdrawal from the route. I wonder if this conference facility picked up the United remnant sale in Bangkok and got all the little nut cups.

[focus27]

You wait ages for the food then get served a lousy bowl of rice!

[moonao]

no real insights from this article.

[Robby nz]

First 4 posts attack the messenger.

How about turning your minds to something positive and having a go at working out where things might go from here.

Off out now, when I get back I look forward to some constructive ideas.

[SheungWan]

While Thaksin still attempts to run the country in his personal interest the troubles will continue. This much is better understood.

[pookiki]

Despite the fact that I find Mr. Tay's analysis of the situation fairly shallow - especially an explanation as to why elections could not be completed in the South, I wish that "The Nation" would adopt some ethical reporting practices. This editorial first appeared in the 'Malaysian Insider' on 11 February. In all fairness, the article should reflect that it is a reprint and the original source. Did the Nation receive authorization to use the material from the 'Malaysian Insider'?

[rogerdee123]

The nation credited the writer of the article Simon Tay .. who is the author of the article for the Malaysian Insider you mention.

Probably most of the Nation's readers don't read the Malaysian papers.

What's the problem?

[chainarong]

The only thing in this article is it's gloss over of all things important, I don't perceive the colour of T shirts as being either rich or poor, so far I have seen a lot of poor and very few rich, the track record of the PTP Administration has to be questioned , you just can't work off bulls!!t, continually ministers speak out about other portfolios , no body seems to have a clue their roles they play , they pull projects out of the Air no costing's , risk management , no public tenders , the flood mitigation programme is a case in point , all talk, they snub their nose at the courts , they think they are a power unto itself , case in point DSI, , They really have no grasp of running a country. This is the end product of a rich man's dream for a totalitarian State, ah la Singapore.

[Yunla]

Re; the voting point he raised. Voting, vote-buying, majority of votes etc. are of lesser importance compared to the post-election phase. The critical issue is that after being elected, politicians are strictly regulated, and all parliamentary processes are regulated to prevent abuse of the system. In nations where corruption is rife, special parliamentary instruments are required to ensure that bills are "beneficial to the nation" and that this is the priority in all parliamentary activities. If they regulate the political process after the election, the vote-buying and majority of votes during the election are next to irrelevent. The entire problem has nothing to do with number of votes or vote-buying etc. it all comes down to the basic fact that when these people are in office they need to be handled with an iron-like grip, and forced by law to work for the benefit of the nation *only*.

[marcusd]

Despite the fact that I find Mr. Tay's analysis of the situation fairly shallow - especially an explanation as to why elections could not be completed in the South, I wish that "The Nation" would adopt some ethical reporting practices. This editorial first appeared in the 'Malaysian Insider' on 11 February. In all fairness, the article should reflect that it is a reprint and the original source. Did the Nation receive authorization to use the material from the 'Malaysian Insider'?

probably not

Marcusd. Via tapatalk

[taony]

Joker. So the foreign press worries about the election too much? Then why is most of the article about the election.

-*I typed this myself*-

[smutcakes]

While Thaksin still attempts to run the country in his personal interest the troubles will continue. This much is better understood.

I agree with this, but what is the alternative? For vested interests from the other side to do the same? As has been traditional in Thai politics, just swapping from one self serving group to another.

I think most people agree that reform should take place, but the devil is in the detail of how and who can carry this out, which for me is the main reason why I just cannot get my head around supporting the movement. (notwithstanding my distrust of the real motives of the some of the core leaders and their backers)

It seems that very few Government institutions, law makers etc are beyond influence and politicization so finding a group of people with neutrality, who cannot and will not be influenced by either party/friends/military to carry out these needed reforms. The fact that the PDRC or the Government or anyone really has put forward any names for these people to carry out the reforms makes me question whether this is the real desire of the powers that be.

If Yingluck resigned today? What would happen?

[Chang_paarp]

First 4 posts attack the messenger.

How about turning your minds to something positive and having a go at working out where things might go from here.

Off out now, when I get back I look forward to some constructive ideas.

When you come back you may chose to share something constructive and insightful related to the topic.

The piece was a little vapid, however to give a full and honest appraisal would ensure the matter would not be published in any Thai newspaper or web based site as the subject matter and the litigious players are somewhat sensitive. This dance of whispers and rumour is part of the problem.

[jeffinbangkok]

IMO, a worthy comment which suggests a solution to one of the major problems: "Re; the voting point he raised. Voting, vote-buying, majority of votes etc. are of lesser importance compared to the post-election phase. The critical issue is that after being elected, politicians are strictly regulated, and all parliamentary processes are regulated to prevent abuse of the system. In nations where corruption is rife, special parliamentary instruments are required to ensure that bills are "beneficial to the nation" and that this is the priority in all parliamentary activities. If they regulate the political process after the election, the vote-buying and majority of votes during the election are next to irrelevent. The entire problem has nothing to do with number of votes or vote-buying etc. it all comes down to the basic fact that when these people are in office they need to be handled with an iron-like grip, and forced by law to work for the benefit of the nation *only*."

[expat888]

All these articles that attempt to analyse the present political situation assumes there is reason and logic being applied.

Reason and logic doesn't exist anywhere in Thailand. So these "journalist" and "academics" are just playing out their personal fantasies.

Thais are in either of two emotional states:

1 - extremely emotional

2 - waiting to be extremely emotional

[Roadman]

While Thaksin still attempts to run the country in his personal interest the troubles will continue. This much is better understood.

I agree with this, but what is the alternative? For vested interests from the other side to do the same? As has been traditional in Thai politics, just swapping from one self serving group to another.

I think most people agree that reform should take place, but the devil is in the detail of how and who can carry this out, which for me is the main reason why I just cannot get my head around supporting the movement. (notwithstanding my distrust of the real motives of the some of the core leaders and their backers)

It seems that very few Government institutions, law makers etc are beyond influence and politicization so finding a group of people with neutrality, who cannot and will not be influenced by either party/friends/military to carry out these needed reforms. The fact that the PDRC or the Government or anyone really has put forward any names for these people to carry out the reforms makes me question whether this is the real desire of the powers that be.

If Yingluck resigned today? What would happen?

Nothing happens but the next Shinawatra family goon steps up to run the family Thailand personal business.

It is not only the puppet that's needs to resign but also Pheu Thai as the Dems have done. Then they all should report on their knees and bellies to the One who's decision does matter. Then they can all hand themselves over to the Army for immediate first lessons on Democracy 101 and kindy playing in the sandpit. During that time the Army is also tasked to get relevant groups to nominate the best in their fields for short term management while politicians are being educated. Army is facilitator and judicatory but also not leader.

Edited February 22, 2014 by Roadman

[Fryslan boppe]

Just another characterization of current events promoting the chaotic and ungovernable circumstances the coup-mongers and their friends are self-servingly trying to foster.

Most of these accounts conveniently ignore the millions of voters whose choice is being challenged. Trying instead to paint all this Opposition noise as being against some small clique type of cabal they call the Govt......That is not reality.......The reality is the millions of voters...those are the ones who are being challenged.

It is not rocket science to understand why these Anti-democrats need to squelch the current election and prevent its' completion and tabulation...They are deathly afraid of it, as it gives voice to those millions referenced above.

That voice needs to be silenced, ignored and not mentioned, if they are to make any progress.

Edited February 22, 2014 by Fryslan boppe

[soalbundy]

First 4 posts attack the messenger.

How about turning your minds to something positive and having a go at working out where things might go from here.

Off out now, when I get back I look forward to some constructive ideas.

That's all we need, more guess work from farangs who have no say in the matter and can't influence anything anyway.........i say keep it funny, at least we can have a laugh.

[soalbundy]

All these articles that attempt to analyse the present political situation assumes there is reason and logic being applied.

Reason and logic doesn't exist anywhere in Thailand. So these "journalist" and "academics" are just playing out their personal fantasies.

Thais are in either of two emotional states:

1 - extremely emotional

2 - waiting to be extremely emotional

And 3, stabbing someone and saying its excusable because he made me lose face

[soalbundy]

You wait ages for the food then get served a lousy bowl of rice!

rather like,"spent three months being shot at and all i got was this lousy whistle"

[PatOngo]

First 4 posts attack the messenger.

How about turning your minds to something positive and having a go at working out where things might go from here.

Off out now, when I get back I look forward to some constructive ideas.

Only the Thai's can work it out,no doubt in their own Thai way,I don't know why farang get so wound up about it,sit back and enjoy the show.I just love political satire.

[lemonjelly]

First 4 posts attack the messenger.

How about turning your minds to something positive and having a go at working out where things might go from here.

Off out now, when I get back I look forward to some constructive ideas.

Not much chance of that on this forum, Robbie. Most of the posters here dedicate their posts to insulting Thais or each other.

[djjamie]

Rather dull writing and he told us nothing we did not already know.

Funny sitting in Singapore talking about democracy. I did not know you had any idea what it was.

1860

The United States of America had an election.

The South refused to vote for Lincoln but did vote because they knew that Lincoln needed NO SUCH thing as a certain percentage not voting to stop him.

So let me get this straight Thailand.

if a certain percentage does not vote than the election is void?

So the Reds can simply refuse to vote to stop your yellows from ever winning as well.

But this story is dull.

Ghandi and Mandellah knew how to take down a ruling class. Just simply shut the economy down.

Nothing rich people hate more than losing money.

Congratulations. You have won the confused demagogue of the week award.

First paragraph - Demonize the OP author and state you knew all of this anyway. So you did know that the US Fed tapering will effect emerging economies with deteriorating macro-economic figures or visible political instability would be punished by skittish markets with Thailand drifting towards both tendencies? You knew that right?

Second paragraph - Compare apples to oranges or in this case Thailand to America from 154 years ago.

Third paragraph (The confused bit) – In your own words you are then stating Ghandi and Suthep share the same tactic in bringing down a ruling class and that is by shutting the economy down. I would have compared Suthep to Mandeal, but anyway Ghandi will do.

Nothing rich people hate more than losing money. Yep and thats why Suthep is targeting thaksin's business interests.

​I bet if it was a red article the author would be brilliant. The OP would be a great insight and no inane comparisons would be made.

[Trentham]

Rather dull writing and he told us nothing we did not already know.

Funny sitting in Singapore talking about democracy. I did not know you had any idea what it was.

1860

The United States of America had an election.

The South refused to vote for Lincoln but did vote because they knew that Lincoln needed NO SUCH thing as a certain percentage not voting to stop him.

So let me get this straight Thailand.

if a certain percentage does not vote than the election is void?

So the Reds can simply refuse to vote to stop your yellows from ever winning as well.

But this story is dull.

Ghandi and Mandellah knew how to take down a ruling class. Just simply shut the economy down.

Nothing rich people hate more than losing money.

But don't you understand - this trouble has nothing to do with taking down a ruling class. It is all about one set of ruling class elite trying to dislodge another set of ruling class elite.

It has nothing at all to do with the poor except in regard to getting their vote.

[BradWalker]

There is only one turn of events that will serve to reduce tensions and put Thailand on a path towards reconciliation. This would be the return of Thaksin to Thailand and his serving at least a portion of his sentence. It is unfathomable to me that a convicted criminal and fugitive from justice runs the Thai government by proxy. Those who say that the charges against him were "politically motivated" do not know the true Thaksin.

He has been involved in shady and outright fraudulent business deals at least since 1987 when he defrauded American businessman William Monson out of $1 million worth of cable TV equipment. His "rake" off the construction of The Suvarnabhumi Airport had to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. The scam that he perpetrated to sell AIS to The Singaporeans was patently illegal-until he had the law changed by his minion MP's so he could rake off a $2 billion profit and pay no cap gains tax on it. Ad on Ad nauseum.

Mr. T needs to do some time and stay out of politics, period. That said, the people of Issan need to be properly represented in the National government, which they never were until Thaksin came along and molded them into the majority that elected him. For this, they were rewarded duly and things have gotten a lot better for the folks of Issan as a result (I know, I have lived in a Surin rice farming village for the last nine years). And for this, they love Thaksin.

What we need is someone with Thaksin's considerable political skills with out the T-man's prodigious greed. I am not holding my breath until such a character surfaces but it sure as hell is not Suthep, who is simply a proxy for the old-line Bangkok power elite who want their shot at the gold back where they think it belongs i. e. with them.

[Scamper]

Good article. A path that would install an interim administration that has none of the major players or their parties in this divide would indeed be the most stable path forward towards peace and reform, in preparation for a new national election. That being said, it is easy to understand the pessimism of the writer. Thaksin will never accept an arrangement whereby he is not firmly in charge. That is abundantly clear. He will do everything - through this administration, through Chalerm, and through the police - to achieve that. That spells a great deal of trouble. There has been no shift in Thaksin's strategy whatsoever in the last ten plus years. There is not much expectation that it will now.

As far fetched as it may appear now, a compromise where neither Pheu Thai, nor the Democrats, nor the PDRC run the show is the only feasible and peaceful middle path forward, and the only one that would ensure confidence from all sides in the process. It would give it national and regional credibility - and engage in reform that is acceptable to all.

It remains the best option there is. And the most peaceful.

Edited February 22, 2014 by Scamper

[rickirs]

This article is the result of a "think tank" on Nitol complete with daydreaming and musings. And its conclusion is that the future for Thailand isn't predictable. I think members of ThaiVisa regardless of their diverse political leanings could do better.