Missing Malaysia Airlines jet carrying 239 triggers Southeast Asia search

[jpinx]

A perspective on the enormity of scanning satellite imagery:

The search area was last reported around 38,500 square miles that is equal to about 99.7 billion square meters.

Say looking for a 22 meter or 500 square meter object. That is a ratio of 500/99.7 billion

Now let's say you have a table top of 5m x 5m = 25 sqm and you have a microscope trying to find a spec on it.

That spec would be 25 x (500/99.7 e^⁶) = .12 microns using the above ratio. A human hair is about 100 microns.

So the proverbial needle in the haystack is pretty easy in comparison.

Of course that is assuming only human eye scanning of the satellite images but probably also use computerized algorithms to narrow it down but still a massive amount of data.

Agreed, but that is why any SAR effort always starts with last known position, heading, height and speed, and applies the variables of wind and/or tide as appropriate. This provides a starting point for the search and an expanding box pattern is run centred on that information. The witness reports and other radar "sightings" would be treated as other starting points for secondary searches using whatever satellites, ships or aircraft are available. SAR is not rocket-science, it is extremely distressing and boring at the same time. It is incredibly difficult to search by eye for hours on end from an aircraft, and very easy to miss something.

Edited March 13, 2014 by jpinx

[smileydude]

The Chinese spotted it first?. Hmmm interesting unfolding of events. So the conspiracy theory that Chinese fighter jets shot down the plane because they did not want to negotiate with hijackers in releasing imprisoned Uyghur dissidents might be carrying some weight? No one searched for the plane for 2 days. It has been suspected that the Vietnamese navy were informed of the incident by the Chinese and possibly a cleanup op done. With the Chinese involved I wonder if we will ever know the truth.

[jpinx]

Make no mistake - the Chinese will use this situation to position a considerable number of warships far down the South China Sea to re-inforce their misplaced claims on these islands and sea-areas with all the oil and gas reserves known to be there.

[MrWorldwide]

With the Chinese involved I wonder if we will ever know the truth.

And it would be totally different if it had been shot down over Guam. Right.

[amse]

So the super high-tech American and Russian satelites haven't spotted anything? OH Excuse me, their only interested on spying on us citizens.

[ginjag]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26554875

That is the best resolution of a Chinese satellite ??? Think they have a lot of catching up to do.

On a side note, I thought this area was already heavily searched ? In any event I hope that

that wreckage is indeed found, to solve the mystery.

Keep in mind, the image is 3-4 days old. There are factors such as drift and sea conditions that may have changed the location of the possible debris. Also, the debris may have been submerged when there were vessels in the area. Not an excuse, but it took approx. 5 days to locate the AF crash site and 2 years to find the flight data recorder, and that was with having a much more robust and reliable flight path data pool.

BTW, the Chinese have much better imaging capabilities on some satellites. If it is a debris, it will be amusing to see what the response is from the people who posted to this thread claiming the aircraft landed somewhere, or that this was a black ops that saw the pax kidnapped.

Posters on this thread aired their views as to possible causes, some were possible others remotely possible BUT were honest off the cuff posts non the less.

YOU quoted--" IT will be amusing to see what happens in response" WHY amusing--I do NOT think this tragedy is all that simple.

If you go on the law of average you will be safer to stick with a catastrophic boom in mid air at 35,000 ft.

You sound like you HOPE others are wrong and your safe theory is right. yours is sound others are amusing. pewk

[webfact]

Missing Flight MH370 strayed to south of Phuket, Malaysia military says
Phuket Gazette


Vietnamese military personnel look out of a helicopter during a search and rescue mission off Vietnam's Tho Chu island. Photo: Reuters

PHUKET: -- Malaysia's military has traced what could have been the jetliner missing for almost five days to an area south of Phuket, hundreds of miles to the west of its last known position, the country's air force chief said yesterday.

His statement followed a series of conflicting accounts of the flight path of the Boeing 777-200ER with 239 people on board, which left authorities uncertain even which ocean to search in for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

The last definitive sighting of the aircraft on civilian radar screens came shortly before 1:30am on Saturday, less than an hour after taking off from Kuala Lumpur, as it flew northeast across the mouth of the Gulf of Thailand bound for Beijing.

What happened next remains one of the most baffling mysteries in modern aviation history and the differing accounts put out by various Malaysian officials have drawn criticism of their handling of the crisis.

In the latest potential lead, a Chinese government agency website yesterday said a Chinese satellite had photographed three "suspicious floating objects" on Sunday in waters northeast of Kuala Lumpur and south of Vietnam.

It said the images were taken over the "suspected accident area at sea" that was not far from where the plane made its last known communication with air traffic control.

The website of the State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence said the objects measured about 22 by 24 meters, 14m by 19m and 13m by 18m. It was unclear if that location had been searched.

There was no immediate explanation why the Chinese agency waited for four days to reveal the images.

One senior US defense official said US satellites had not located any sign of a crash.

Earlier yesterday, Lt Gen Rodzali Daud, the Malaysian air force chief, told a news conference that an aircraft was plotted on military radar at 2:15am, 320km northwest of Penang, off Malaysia's west coast.

But there has been no confirmation that the unidentified plane was Flight MH370, Gen Rodzali said, and Malaysia was sharing the data with international civilian and military authorities, including those from the United States.

"We are corroborating this," he added. "We are still working with the experts."

Agonizing wait

According to the data cited by Gen Rodzali, if the radar had spotted the missing plane, the aircraft would have flown for 45 minutes and dropped only about 1,500m (5,000 feet) in altitude since its sighting on civilian radar in the Gulf of Thailand.

There was no word on which direction it was then headed, but if this sighting was correct, the plane would have turned sharply west from its original course, travelling hundreds of miles over the Malay Peninsula from the Gulf of Thailand to the Andaman Sea.

This would put it about 320km northwest of Penang, in the northern part of the Strait of Malacca, roughly south of Phuket and east of the tip of Indonesia's Aceh province and India's Nicobar island chain.

Indonesia and Thailand have said their militaries detected no sign of any unusual aircraft in their airspace. Malaysia has asked India for help in tracing the aircraft and New Delhi's coast guard planes have joined the search.

The US National Transportation Safety Board said in a statement that its experts in air traffic control and radar who travelled to Kuala Lumpur over the weekend were giving the Malaysians technical help in the search.

A US official in Washington said the experts were shown two sets of radar records, military and civilian, and they both appeared to show the plane turning to the west and across the Malay peninsula.

But the official stressed the records were raw data returns that were not definitive.

Authorities were continuing to search on both sides of the Malay peninsula in a total of over 27,000 square nautical miles (93,000 sq km), an area the size of Hungary or Indiana.

A dozen countries are taking part in the search, with 42 ships and 39 aircraft involved, Malaysian Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said yesterday.

There has been no sighting of any debris, prolonging the agonizing wait for hundreds of relatives of those on board.

"My heart reaches out to the families of the passengers and crew," the minister said "And I give you my assurance we will not reduce the tempo and that we will not spare any effort to find the missing plane."

Confusing information

Malaysia has been criticized for giving conflicting and confusing information on the last known location of aircraft.

"The Malaysians deserve to be criticized – their handling of this has been atrocious," said Ernest Bower, a Southeast Asia specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"They don't know where the plane is; they have briefed key partners and changed the story several times," he said.

The air force chief yesterday denied saying on Tuesday that military radar had tracked MH370 flying over the Strait of Malacca, saying that the radar sighting was still unconfirmed (story here).

Amid the confusion, Vietnam briefly scaled down search operations in waters off its southern coast, saying it was receiving poor information from Malaysia. Hanoi later said the search was back on in full force and was even extending on to land.

"As long as the plane is not found, we would continue doing our mission," Vo Van Tuan, spokesman for Vietnam Search and Rescue Committee, told reporters in Hanoi.

China also said its air force would sweep areas in the sea, clarifying however that no searches over land were planned.

Authorities have not ruled out any possible cause for the plan's disappearance. Malaysian police have said they were investigating whether any passengers or crew on the plane had personal or psychological problems that might shed light on the mystery, along with the possibility of a hijacking, sabotage or mechanical failure.

The Boeing 777 has one of the best safety records of any commercial aircraft in service. Its only previous fatal crash came on July 6 last year when Asiana Airlines Flight 214 struck a seawall with its undercarriage on landing in San Francisco, killing three people.

Boeing Co, the U.S. aircraft company that makes the 777, has declined to comment beyond a brief statement saying it was monitoring the situation.

Source: http://www.phuketgazette.net/phuket_news/2014/Missing-Flight-MH370-strayed-to-south-of-Phuket-Malaysia-military-says-27821.html


-- Phuket Gazette 2014-03-13

[goatfarmer]

If it is a debris, it will be amusing to see what the response is from the people who posted to this thread claiming the aircraft landed somewhere, or that this was a black ops that saw the pax kidnapped.

They are not particularly interested in evidence. No doubt the fantasies will endure.

[orosee]

.

More alleged evidence placing the incident back near the original flight path of the jet from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. An eMail from oil worker on a rig in the sea.

http://twitpic.com/dy1qmm

.

Well that is quite an email.

Also, the linked page appears to be an attack site (at least for Android systems) and tries to install a fake app store to your tablet or phone :-(

[F430murci]

A perspective on the enormity of scanning satellite imagery:

The search area was last reported around 38,500 square miles that is equal to about 99.7 billion square meters.

Say looking for a 22 meter or 500 square meter object. That is a ratio of 500/99.7 billion

Now let's say you have a table top of 5m x 5m = 25 sqm and you have a microscope trying to find a spec on it.

That spec would be 25 x (500/99.7 e^⁶) = .12 microns using the above ratio. A human hair is about 100 microns.

So the proverbial needle in the haystack is pretty easy in comparison.

Of course that is assuming only human eye scanning of the satellite images but probably also use computerized algorithms to narrow it down but still a massive amount of data. Plus probably not scanning the imagery in the correct area initially.

Thank you for some perspective and an intelligent, rationale thought in the midst of looney, cover up, conspiracy theory, US v China BS.

[skills32]

I reckon that David Copperfield is mixed up in this.

[EyesWideOpen]

So Malaysia is still saying the plane was south of Phuket, and China is saying they

may have discovered the wreckage off Vietnam..... No wonder the sleuths here

on TV , including myself, are having a hard time coming up with a reasonable

explanation. Guess we just have to keep waiting. Two planes ? Oh sorry,

could not resist.

Edited March 13, 2014 by EyesWideOpen

[rabas]

Found it:

http://www.controller.com/listingsdetail/aircraft-for-sale/BOEING-777-200ER/2001-BOEING-777-200ER/1314333.htm

Best post in 58 pages, took me a minute to figure what you meant.

Nice paint job, but hopefully they chiseled the serial numbers from the body.

Is this the beginning of a new "industry"? Commercial plane theft.

Edited March 13, 2014 by rabas

[Blackmirage2013]

I bet this turns out to be from "dust" on the Chinese satellite's lens...

[geriatrickid]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26554875

That is the best resolution of a Chinese satellite ??? Think they have a lot of catching up to do.

On a side note, I thought this area was already heavily searched ? In any event I hope that

that wreckage is indeed found, to solve the mystery.

Keep in mind, the image is 3-4 days old. There are factors such as drift and sea conditions that may have changed the location of the possible debris. Also, the debris may have been submerged when there were vessels in the area. Not an excuse, but it took approx. 5 days to locate the AF crash site and 2 years to find the flight data recorder, and that was with having a much more robust and reliable flight path data pool.

BTW, the Chinese have much better imaging capabilities on some satellites. If it is a debris, it will be amusing to see what the response is from the people who posted to this thread claiming the aircraft landed somewhere, or that this was a black ops that saw the pax kidnapped.

Posters on this thread aired their views as to possible causes, some were possible others remotely possible BUT were honest off the cuff posts non the less.

YOU quoted--" IT will be amusing to see what happens in response" WHY amusing--I do NOT think this tragedy is all that simple.

If you go on the law of average you will be safer to stick with a catastrophic boom in mid air at 35,000 ft.

You sound like you HOPE others are wrong and your safe theory is right. yours is sound others are amusing. pewk

They presented nonsensical creations of their own mental state. Yes, it will be amusing to see people scurry away without taking responsibility for what will most likely be proven to be stupidity. No one ever holds such people responsible, and so they continue to spew their nonsense. I don't have a "safe" theory. I am being patient and relying on past similar events which provides guidance. Nothing has been proven as of yet and I am open to ideas that differ from my own expectations. However, those ideas have to be based on something more that conspiracy postulations. For those of us who live in the realm of reality, we do not need to create idiotic explanations to cope with horrific events.

[geriatrickid]

I bet this turns out to be from "dust" on the Chinese satellite's lens...

LOL. It wouldn't be the first time, but give credit to the Chinese for not making any claims. They have acted responsibly and said, it should be investigated. Hopefully, that is what is being done now. It's time some competent rational people interceded. China has had enough air crashes and incidents such that it has a pool of investigators that can offer an intelligent assessment based upon factual evidence. I further hope it is shared with other experts with the experience to offer guidance. My concern is that there may be rivalries at work now. Malaysia has asked for help from the USA and there may be a lack of communication between the various Asian aviation authorities. At least the US transport safety people have a decent working relationship with the Chinese civil aviation authority.

[Don Johan Negombo]

They just wants to give out some news everyday, to keep the pulse high...cos they dont find anything. (or allready have found it but dont tell)

If the plane have gone down somewhere after Nicobar islands, you have many small islands with aborignal population. They dont have a clue if they would see debrees, they would prob row out in a boat and take all things they can take into the djungle..and build it on the houses.

[webfact]

RT @mpoppel: Reuters journalist aboard Vietnamese search aircraft says they failed to locate any objects in area where images showed poss. debris

[Sheppo]

Why in the hell did it take China so long? There were reports of calls to passengers mobile phones ringing out when called. Maybe the some of the wreckage was floating. Until they find the cause I believe Boeing will be so very worried considering the reports that there were problems they know about in the 777's. Tomorrow I fly QF to my beloved Thailand. Will look out my window as we fly over and pray for those lost. Then Soi Cowboy tomorrow night!!!

[Hulkster]

Whatever this turns out to be.....interesting that a Chinese satellite spots something that a US one did not or,

if it did, did not reveal!

Most of the people on the plane were Chinese. It's not important to the US to find the plane.

[Tywais]

Whatever this turns out to be.....interesting that a Chinese satellite spots something that a US one did not or,

if it did, did not reveal!

Most of the people on the plane were Chinese. It's not important to the US to find the plane.

What nonsense. The US is one of the first countries that will supply humanitarian aid to others regardless of nationality. Guess that was the missing part of the topic, some good old US bashing.

[Mosha]

Whatever this turns out to be.....interesting that a Chinese satellite spots something that a US one did not or,

if it did, did not reveal!

Most of the people on the plane were Chinese. It's not important to the US to find the plane.

Boeing might not agree with you. They will want to know what happened.

[NeverSure]

Why in the hell did it take China so long? There were reports of calls to passengers mobile phones ringing out when called. Maybe the some of the wreckage was floating. Until they find the cause I believe Boeing will be so very worried considering the reports that there were problems they know about in the 777's. Tomorrow I fly QF to my beloved Thailand. Will look out my window as we fly over and pray for those lost. Then Soi Cowboy tomorrow night!!!

Please read the thread. Cell phones will appear to ring when someone makes a call, even if the phone no longer exists. There will just be no answer. That part is bogus.

The 777 is one of the safest planes in the air, having just one known crash due to pilot error in San Francisco when they approached too low and hit a seawall. There were many survivors. If this is another one, it is the second. The planes have been in service for many years.

[Pomthai]

This certainly adds to the dynamic and search area significantly if true.... Aircraft continued on flying for 4 hours after radar contact lost.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579434653903086282

Edited March 13, 2014 by Pomthai

[draftvader]

Whatever this turns out to be.....interesting that a Chinese satellite spots something that a US one did not or,

if it did, did not reveal!

Most of the people on the plane were Chinese. It's not important to the US to find the plane.

What nonsense. The US is one of the first countries that will supply humanitarian aid to others regardless of nationality. Guess that was the missing part of the topic, some good old US bashing.

This is the price to pay for being from a global empire. We know this all too well as Brits. Most the time it is simply petty jealousy. If their country had succeeded then they would be running it up a flag pole every chance they could.

[mrtoad]

Whatever this turns out to be.....interesting that a Chinese satellite spots something that a US one did not or,

if it did, did not reveal!

Most of the people on the plane were Chinese. It's not important to the US to find the plane.

Absolute nonsense. The Americans will have a lot of interest in this for a number of reasons a) there relationship with countries in South East Asia and the plane is American built

Some people, just love to bash

[harrry]

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579434653903086282

says US have engine deata saying aircraft continued for some hours. I know RollRoyce does have engine data but MAS opted out of the sharing scheme with Boing so not sure ofr this and I am not a subscriber.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/malaysian-air-said-to-opt-out-of-boeing-plan-to-share-jets-data.html

Another summary of this wsj story says it is one of those I had a friend who said that a friend knew that... stories.

Edited March 13, 2014 by harrry

[webfact]

RT @mpoppel: WSJ sources: U.S. officials investigating possibility missing airliner was diverted toward undisclosed location with transponder turned off

[Chicog]

Whatever this turns out to be.....interesting that a Chinese satellite spots something that a US one did not or,

if it did, did not reveal!

Most of the people on the plane were Chinese. It's not important to the US to find the plane.

Yes, the FBI, NSTB, Boeing and FAA are already there, and they have supplied at least two P3 Orions to help out.

Stupid comment really.

Edited March 13, 2014 by Chicog

[davejonesbkk]

ok so on the one hand we have this:

RT @mpoppel: Reuters journalist aboard Vietnamese search aircraft says they failed to locate any objects in area where images showed poss. debris

and on the other we have this:

RT @mpoppel: WSJ sources: U.S. officials investigating possibility missing airliner was diverted toward undisclosed location with transponder turned off

this is all getting seriously loopy...