Thailand becomes 'Sick Man of Southeast Asia'

[BestBitterPhuket]

Thailand needs a COMPLETE overhaul. Not just a reform, but a paradigm shift. Out with the army politics, sack and arrest half the police force, including all on top. Investigate all top civil servants and arrest the corrupt ones. Clean up the courts. Death penalty by express court for serious corruption. A total overhaul of the education system. Clean up illegal gambling, prostitution and drugs. Introduce meritocracy. Look east, look west, but never look within, because Thailand has not accomplished anything EVER. Solutions must come from the outside and be wholeheartedly adopted by the new government.

...but nothing will happen and the same army/elite/thaksin troika will continue their dance towards the edge of the cliff...

[tonbridgebrit]

Right, most of us have seen Thais looking at people from Burma and Cambodia and saying to us foreigners "monkey see, monkey do".

I suppose we will now see we a load of people from Thailand's neighbouring countries looking at the Thais, and saying "monkey see, monkey do".

In all honesty, were the Thais ever really that much better than Cambodians, Burmese, Laos and Vietnamese people ??

[elzach]

Businesses, especially the multinationals described here, don't pack up and move because of politics or even political turmoil. Plus they take years to assess the situation, not months. It took businesses 3 years to decide to start moving out of China, for example.

The key determinants are:

* currency valuation

* labor costs

* taxes

Thailand is not doing bad on all three fronts, it's just that it has to compete with many qualified neighbors.

It's not just that Thailand has to compete with many qualified neighbors. There were few viable options in the region previously.

Another factor that you failed to mention is political stability. It's a significant factor in how a foreign investor makes decisions because it has the chance to influence the other factors you mentioned.

Thailand's tax rates, labor costs, and currency valuation are all in jeopardy if the political issues don't get solved and you have a relatively stable political environment. You have to remember that most of the staple items in Thailand are subsidized in some form or another. Thai leaders were smart enough to know that if they kept bellies full, they could exploit the people a lot longer than allowing food, fuel, and other staple costs to drive people into the streets protesting.

But, even as you point out, Thailand is facing increased competition (something it has not faced in decades). Without strong leadership, they're ill prepared to meet competitive needs of the global market. As more money flows away from Thailand and towards her neighbors, the government has less money to provide services and to subsidize costs. If it passes the costs onto the people (removing subsidies), the people begin demanding higher wages in order to make up for the fact that the price of rice is now too expensive to feed their family. So there go your labor costs advantages which drives up inflation which destabilizes the currency. If they pass the costs onto businesses and the middle-class in the form of taxes, eventually the costs get passed onto the people and the same thing happens.

If Thailand was politically stable, first off, they would have a plan for weening the population off subsidies (BTW, this has been recommended to the Thai government by economists for years) by investing in programs that would increase domestic consumption and make Thailand less reliant on being a hub of relatively cheap skilled labor.

You make some good points. But, remember we are looking at this from the viewpoint of the foreign investor.

So if you think about it, political instability (but of course not political mayhem) is good for currency valuation. The start up and subsequent investments become less, 10% less in less than a year in Thailand's case.

Also, if the business is export-oriented, even better. Depreciating currency works in its favor also.

Labor costs are more complex and are affected by many reasons. A foreign investor would be also looking at the rate of increase of labor costs here vs. the neighbors. In a way, China has been priced out of certain markets because of skyrocketing labor costs in the Tier 1 cities. Expectations of living standards are another factor.

Taxes, that's the trickiest one. That's political sometimes/usually and who can predict. Remember the phrase "read my lips"?

[northernjohn]

'Thailand becomes 'Sick Man of Southeast Asia'

Look who the head nurse and head doctor are.

You cannot blame the head nurse and doctor for the illness. The patient has to take responsibility for his lifestyle as it facilitated the illness.

Unfortunately, taking personal responsibility for any problem in Thailand is not part of the culture.

You are right. That is the reason it needs a new Doctor and Nurse. In the States they would both be up to their eyeballs in malpractice cases.

It needs a combination that is more interested in Thailand than building there own bank account. Some one who is not afraid to take responsibility for their decisions. some one who will face the nation rather than hide on Facebook.

Unfortunately the Thai population has been cheated on education for so long that they can not see the forest for the trees.

[Mr Yim]

How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

Well I've just read my daily dosage of Absolute BS but one has to expect this from Red Shirt Flag Wavers !!

And I have just read my daily dosage of reaction of absolute BS from a yellow shirt flag waver!!

[bander]

'the sick man of Southeast Asia' ..... Sorry, I thought that was Thaksin

"Thailand will lose investment opportunities equivalent to Bt46 billion from the relocations, which will be three times higher than the original move"

The man in Dubay must be thrilled by reading this news, Thailand in the initial phase of an economic crisis just like he and his puppet sister have planned all along

[Choonpon]

Buck up Thailand!!

[Phatcharanan]

'Thailand becomes 'Sick Man of Southeast Asia'

Look who the head nurse and head doctor are.

You cannot blame the head nurse and doctor for the illness. The patient has to take responsibility for his lifestyle as it facilitated the illness.

Unfortunately, taking personal responsibility for any problem in Thailand is not part of the culture.

The root of the problem lies in the Thai value system in which merit can be derived from power. It is a system of exchange of mutual interests under which money is exchanged for protection and patronage (see Lucien Hanks "Merit and Power in the Thai Social Order", 1962 and Fred W Riggs 1966). Riggs thought that should not be considered as corruption - a view still shared by many Thais.including politicians and bureaucrats. That is not surprising given that between 1969 and 1971 bureaucratic corruption involved up to half of the government's budget (D. Morrell 1975). All the anecdotal eveidence is that the situation has not improved since then.

Suthep is like King Canute commanding the tide not to come in. The situation will not improve until Thais change their value system. And despite what Suthep might say, a survey conducted (I think) last year showed there is no prospect of that happening so long the individual benefits from it, even if in the long run the country as whole does not.

And the winner of 'The Most Boring Post of The Year' goes to.............................

[DrTuner]

Right, most of us have seen Thais looking at people from Burma and Cambodia and saying to us foreigners "monkey see, monkey do".

I suppose we will now see we a load of people from Thailand's neighbouring countries looking at the Thais, and saying "monkey see, monkey do".

In all honesty, were the Thais ever really that much better than Cambodians, Burmese, Laos and Vietnamese people ??

They managed to exploit the attractiveness of their young females far better than the neighbors. I'll bet that is what will be stated in the history books.

[kimbathewhitelion]

2 years ago I heard Thailand was many years done and those that moved to Vietnam said now "this country is doomed to the same fate in a few years.

This news is old news.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[heybuz]

has anybody thought that if Thailand becomes mega successful,and all the corruption and all we complain about disappears,it would be uneconomical for a good percentage of expats to live here

[noitom]

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Thailand will never move forward with threats of coups, riots and demonstrations every 18 months.

And don't forget the hand grenades and random shootings. Also don't forget the fertilizer bombings with no follow up news as well as 6,000 or so dead and almost daily bombings in the Thai south.

[GeorgeO]

How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

You obviously still don't get it, do you?! It's ALL about money!

This country wouldn't be in the state it's in today if these PTP thieves weren't so focused on drawing every last drop they can from the Thai economy before slipping off in the night to join their puppet-master in Dubai.

No-one has done more to destroy the Thai economy than Thaksin, his little sister and the band of thieves that follow them, and there's nothing you can say to try to deflect from that fact.

You say that Thailand would have moved past the losses from the rice scam as if they are insignificant...?! Added to the losses elsewhere (case in point, the THB 350 bn flood management system ... that doesn't even exist) and we are looking at somewhere between one and one-and-a-half trillion baht - that's approx. 43 billion US Dollars ... and Thailand can simply move past that....???!!

It's time for you to stop apologizing for these thieves, and start recognizing that they are the ones who are bringing this country to its knees, not those who are desperately trying to remove them from government...!!

[heybuz]

semantics,edit An expatriate (sometimes shortened to expat) is a person temporarily or permanently residing in a country other than that of the person's upbringing.

[smedly]

How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

so you think if the Thai people hadn't stepped in everything would have been fine and dandy - you're dreaming, if anything it has given PTP an excuse for what was an already impending implosion - one that only the easily led would believe

They would not have got their hands on that 2.2 trillion baht off budget loan that they so desperately needed - then the cheques would have started bouncing everywhere - they were already bouncing on the farmers and the first car scheme

[HerbalEd]

While I love Thailand, the country is now showing it's ass for the whole world to see. What an embarrassment.

[chrischronic]

If Thailand is the sick man of SE Asia then Cambodia, where I live, is officially dead

Why? Cambodia has robust economic growth, relatively few political problems (at least of the type that Thailand is suffering ATM...those short lived protests in Phnom Penh last year were a far cry from the last few months in Thailand and not just Bangkok), investors are moving in (Ford is now starting to assemble CKD Everests in Sihanoukville for example), tourists are visiting in record numbers. Sure, Cambodia still has a while to go to catch up with Thailand, it's customs procedures are all over the place (even bringing in a car for tourism purposes isn't simple as some borders will allow them in and others won't), corruption is out of control, but all indications are Cambodia is generally moving ahead in the right direction.

Have you driven through Cambodia?

Do you know how much these people suffer?

I go to Cambodia for business twice a month and In know for a fact that these people are suffering far more than Thailand.

The sheer amount of people suffering from poverty is well beyond that of Thailand.

Many people hate the current leader and want him out and the reason they don't rise up more is because the government shoots them.. Last election they killed and shot at protesters.

Ok, maybe the country is growing, but the rich are hoarding the money.. Prices are very high and the regular man can't buy anything.

So yes Cambodia is dead!

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

I keep hoping there's a light at the end of the tunnel.

But thus far, all I see is a long tunnel that seems to be ever growing longer still.

Edited March 27, 2014 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[tonbridgebrit]

How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

You obviously still don't get it, do you?! It's ALL about money!

This country wouldn't be in the state it's in today if these PTP thieves weren't so focused on drawing every last drop they can from the Thai economy before slipping off in the night to join their puppet-master in Dubai.

No-one has done more to destroy the Thai economy than Thaksin, his little sister and the band of thieves that follow them, and there's nothing you can say to try to deflect from that fact.

You say that Thailand would have moved past the losses from the rice scam as if they are insignificant...?! Added to the losses elsewhere (case in point, the THB 350 bn flood management system ... that doesn't even exist) and we are looking at somewhere between one and one-and-a-half trillion baht - that's approx. 43 billion US Dollars ... and Thailand can simply move past that....???!!

It's time for you to stop apologizing for these thieves, and start recognizing that they are the ones who are bringing this country to its knees, not those who are desperately trying to remove them from government...!!

Hold on, is Thailand really a country that has an economy that is collapsing ?

I really don't think that this is true. Anybody can easily point out that the Thai baht being stable is because foreign investors and Thais are NOT actually pulling their money out. Instead, the baht is actually stronger than what it was previously. I still remember when the pound was above 60 baht about eight years ago !

But this thing about how Thailand is going to have economic problems. Yes, Thailand's neighbouring countries have labour that is cheaper than Thailand's. So, if some of Thailand's economy is built on exporting goods to America and Europe using it's cheap labour, well, yes, Burma and Cambodia might be able to take some of that away.

[metisdead]

An inflammatory post has been removed as well as the replies. Some off topic posts about Vietnam have been removed as well.

[hawker9000]

How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

Suthep?

What about the man in Dubai?

Suthep did this not the guy in dubai. You need to get the facts straight.

Nope, he has HIS fact straight. Not everybody does though. The man in Dubai is the one who makes it possible for Suthep to be what he is. Abandon the shins (a common sense solution if there ever was one), and the wind goes right out of Suthep's sails. Nope, the man in Dubai did this. Get YOUR facts straight before you start flailing at everybody else. (But too late for that I guess...)

[smotherb]

Has anyone been to Cambodia, the Philippines, or Laos?

[Ricky Koh Samui]

Very hard to tell a Thai they are wrong - even if the place self destructed because of their actions, they will still be right!!

[shadmo63]

How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

Suthep?

What about the man in Dubai?

Suthep did this not the guy in dubai. You need to get the facts straight.

Nope, he has HIS fact straight. Not everybody does though. The man in Dubai is the one who makes it possible for Suthep to be what he is. Abandon the shins (a common sense solution if there ever was one), and the wind goes right out of Suthep's sails. Nope, the man in Dubai did this. Get YOUR facts straight before you start flailing at everybody else. (But too late for that I guess...)

Both sides are as bad as each other and all contribute to the problem. So you're both right.......or wrong?

[hawker9000]

Suthep?

What about the man in Dubai?

Suthep did this not the guy in dubai. You need to get the facts straight.

Nope, he has HIS fact straight. Not everybody does though. The man in Dubai is the one who makes it possible for Suthep to be what he is. Abandon the shins (a common sense solution if there ever was one), and the wind goes right out of Suthep's sails. Nope, the man in Dubai did this. Get YOUR facts straight before you start flailing at everybody else. (But too late for that I guess...)

Both sides are as bad as each other and all contribute to the problem. So you're both right.......or wrong?

Ah, the Pollyanna Principle... Can't we all just get along... Maybe everybody should just get together for a beer at the White House... That'll fix everything! Kum-ba-ya.

[bulekee]

If Thailand is so sick maybe it's time for legalised euthanasia for the whole country then they can start again using the sperm bank,( excluding the Chinese sperm donors )