Red Shirt rally called off early; leaders vow to gather again, regroup

[smutcakes]

To be honest it is completely irrelevant how many supporters are at any of the rallies. Unless one rally brought together 51% of the voting population, they are largely irrelevant in terms of how things will pan out going forward- short of all out civil unrest i presume.

Having 100,000 persons at a rally does not change a law- hence if someone is innocent or guilty, really it should make no difference if the law is followed correctly.

That sounds right , but of course it isn't when one thinks about it.

When was the last time any party ever got 51% (or more) of the whole voting population of Thailand voting for them?

We have to consider, (and ignoring other devices such as payment or coercion to attend) that people that attend these rallies of their own volition are much more likely to be the non-apathetic Thais that are likely to vote in an election - indeed they must really be considered the most involved in this regard. Therefore, great numbers would signify a sway in general public feeling (whereas very small numbers could mean nothing more than a niche following) - if we consider for every person with the gumption to turn up accounts for ten that feel likewise, but are less enthusiastic in their beliefs, then 350k could equate into a huge vote chunk (if it was a first past the post system - which it is not - so spread also is important). Of course I have pulled this figure from the top of my head -and it may be just as likely to be 20, 30, 100 as it is 2, 3 or 5 less enthusiastic believers (though I would suggest 10 is somewhat conservative).

Note: I have not made this as a sided argument - just a logical one that applies to any such turnout regardless of colour, orientation or topic.

You could of course be correct, but I suppose we will never know the truth until a fair election as free as possible from vote buying as possible is held. However, i don't believe in a country like Thailand whatever measures you put in place to prevent vote buying that it will ever really be possible.

Talking of non apathetic Thai's you must also take into account the demographics of those protesting. Many of those protesting are from and live in Bangkok, which obviously makes attending the protests considerable easier than from way up or down country.Including which if we are led to believe many of the PTP supporters being of a near subsistence life, for them getting to and staying at a protest in the capital, is obviously far more burdensome both in transport and money than those living in the capital already.

As I said originally though, the law is the law. If the PTP have broken the law they should be found guilty regardless if there is one or a ten million protesters, likewise if they are innocent it should not matter. The law should not however be bent/misconstrued to a set and agreed outcome, and should be applied forcibly to everyone.

For all the protests though, you cannot get away from the fact that the only way to find out what party is supported the most is to hold an election.

Can you sit there and tell me honestly that if the Democrat party really thought they would win a national election, that they would have boycotted and this would still be going on?

[wolf5370]

To be honest it is completely irrelevant how many supporters are at any of the rallies. Unless one rally brought together 51% of the voting population, they are largely irrelevant in terms of how things will pan out going forward- short of all out civil unrest i presume.

Having 100,000 persons at a rally does not change a law- hence if someone is innocent or guilty, really it should make no difference if the law is followed correctly.

That sounds right , but of course it isn't when one thinks about it.

When was the last time any party ever got 51% (or more) of the whole voting population of Thailand voting for them?

We have to consider, (and ignoring other devices such as payment or coercion to attend) that people that attend these rallies of their own volition are much more likely to be the non-apathetic Thais that are likely to vote in an election - indeed they must really be considered the most involved in this regard. Therefore, great numbers would signify a sway in general public feeling (whereas very small numbers could mean nothing more than a niche following) - if we consider for every person with the gumption to turn up accounts for ten that feel likewise, but are less enthusiastic in their beliefs, then 350k could equate into a huge vote chunk (if it was a first past the post system - which it is not - so spread also is important). Of course I have pulled this figure from the top of my head -and it may be just as likely to be 20, 30, 100 as it is 2, 3 or 5 less enthusiastic believers (though I would suggest 10 is somewhat conservative).

Note: I have not made this as a sided argument - just a logical one that applies to any such turnout regardless of colour, orientation or topic.

You could of course be correct, but I suppose we will never know the truth until a fair election as free as possible from vote buying as possible is held. However, i don't believe in a country like Thailand whatever measures you put in place to prevent vote buying that it will ever really be possible.

Talking of non apathetic Thai's you must also take into account the demographics of those protesting. Many of those protesting are from and live in Bangkok, which obviously makes attending the protests considerable easier than from way up or down country.Including which if we are led to believe many of the PTP supporters being of a near subsistence life, for them getting to and staying at a protest in the capital, is obviously far more burdensome both in transport and money than those living in the capital already.

As I said originally though, the law is the law. If the PTP have broken the law they should be found guilty regardless if there is one or a ten million protesters, likewise if they are innocent it should not matter. The law should not however be bent/misconstrued to a set and agreed outcome, and should be applied forcibly to everyone.

For all the protests though, you cannot get away from the fact that the only way to find out what party is supported the most is to hold an election.

Can you sit there and tell me honestly that if the Democrat party really thought they would win a national election, that they would have boycotted and this would still be going on?

yes I agree that demographics are important - I said as much (though less eloquently perhaps) when I said " (if it was a first past the post system - which it is not - so spread also is important).".

The Dems have never been much of a realistic opposition - especially in a country with so many tiny parties (coalition partners in waiting) - and probably never will be. This is more than half the problem IMHO - lack of a serious alternative. It is madness really that the Reds have had to resort to such bully boy tactics (like blocking - even murdering - opposition canvassers) with such lack of opposition. I just goes to show how poor their policies and governance is that (the parties they support that is - of course - be it TRT/PPP/PTP/etc) - with serious opposition and a fair playing field as to campaigning, they would be in serious trouble.

I think the Dems are playing a long game (long-ish). They could have thrown their eggs in the basket and run on the Feb 2nd - they may have put a big dent in that seat majority - and likely PTP would have bled seats to coalition partners and other small parties. However, I think they are playing the integrity card (not saying they have integrity - not saying they don't either) - but PTP, with their Red support, continue to dive face first in the muck at each turn and the Red thuggish incidents continues to be news, they are safer to sit back and look holier than thou simply by doing badger all other than rubbing others' noses in it! As time wears on, Suthep will get the blame from one side and Reds thuggery on the other - and all will end up banned - and who is waiting in the wings with a potential legal remit to govern (and little by way of opposition)?

The law here has been made worthless - not just in this government, but progressively from the turn of this century at least. Prosecution is arbitrary - cases are put on hold for multiple-years without detention - those under charge and on bail allowed to leave the country on trust - biased/corrupt/inept police force and DSI is just a standing comedy act - unrealistic charging (in both directions - rapist illegal taxi drivers receiving driving bans/thugs using metal clubs get 500b fines/well known scammers threatening with firearms on world TV held and released/top cops wives wearing international stolen gems in public /etc - guilty brining libel charges and winning - military being forced to bring charges because the police will not - and so on. The statutes themselves are often vague and contradictory. The law is a weapon for the rich and powerful to use against each other, nothing more - and garners little trust in the rank and file. Most flout it often - some to greater or lesser degrees - and most without any comeback at all - this is doubly so for the wealthy and the powerful. Politicians here are all guilty of breaking one law or another - this is why they throw charges at each other with wanton abandon. Too be vulgar about it, It is a toothless bitch that is whore to all and mother to none.

[smutcakes]

To be honest it is completely irrelevant how many supporters are at any of the rallies. Unless one rally brought together 51% of the voting population, they are largely irrelevant in terms of how things will pan out going forward- short of all out civil unrest i presume.

Having 100,000 persons at a rally does not change a law- hence if someone is innocent or guilty, really it should make no difference if the law is followed correctly.

That sounds right , but of course it isn't when one thinks about it.

When was the last time any party ever got 51% (or more) of the whole voting population of Thailand voting for them?

We have to consider, (and ignoring other devices such as payment or coercion to attend) that people that attend these rallies of their own volition are much more likely to be the non-apathetic Thais that are likely to vote in an election - indeed they must really be considered the most involved in this regard. Therefore, great numbers would signify a sway in general public feeling (whereas very small numbers could mean nothing more than a niche following) - if we consider for every person with the gumption to turn up accounts for ten that feel likewise, but are less enthusiastic in their beliefs, then 350k could equate into a huge vote chunk (if it was a first past the post system - which it is not - so spread also is important). Of course I have pulled this figure from the top of my head -and it may be just as likely to be 20, 30, 100 as it is 2, 3 or 5 less enthusiastic believers (though I would suggest 10 is somewhat conservative).

Note: I have not made this as a sided argument - just a logical one that applies to any such turnout regardless of colour, orientation or topic.

You could of course be correct, but I suppose we will never know the truth until a fair election as free as possible from vote buying as possible is held. However, i don't believe in a country like Thailand whatever measures you put in place to prevent vote buying that it will ever really be possible.

Talking of non apathetic Thai's you must also take into account the demographics of those protesting. Many of those protesting are from and live in Bangkok, which obviously makes attending the protests considerable easier than from way up or down country.Including which if we are led to believe many of the PTP supporters being of a near subsistence life, for them getting to and staying at a protest in the capital, is obviously far more burdensome both in transport and money than those living in the capital already.

As I said originally though, the law is the law. If the PTP have broken the law they should be found guilty regardless if there is one or a ten million protesters, likewise if they are innocent it should not matter. The law should not however be bent/misconstrued to a set and agreed outcome, and should be applied forcibly to everyone.

For all the protests though, you cannot get away from the fact that the only way to find out what party is supported the most is to hold an election.

Can you sit there and tell me honestly that if the Democrat party really thought they would win a national election, that they would have boycotted and this would still be going on?

yes I agree that demographics are important - I said as much (though less eloquently perhaps) when I said " (if it was a first past the post system - which it is not - so spread also is important).".

The Dems have never been much of a realistic opposition - especially in a country with so many tiny parties (coalition partners in waiting) - and probably never will be. This is more than half the problem IMHO - lack of a serious alternative. It is madness really that the Reds have had to resort to such bully boy tactics (like blocking - even murdering - opposition canvassers) with such lack of opposition. I just goes to show how poor their policies and governance is that (the parties they support that is - of course - be it TRT/PPP/PTP/etc) - with serious opposition and a fair playing field as to campaigning, they would be in serious trouble.

I think the Dems are playing a long game (long-ish). They could have thrown their eggs in the basket and run on the Feb 2nd - they may have put a big dent in that seat majority - and likely PTP would have bled seats to coalition partners and other small parties. However, I think they are playing the integrity card (not saying they have integrity - not saying they don't either) - but PTP, with their Red support, continue to dive face first in the muck at each turn and the Red thuggish incidents continues to be news, they are safer to sit back and look holier than thou simply by doing badger all other than rubbing others' noses in it! As time wears on, Suthep will get the blame from one side and Reds thuggery on the other - and all will end up banned - and who is waiting in the wings with a potential legal remit to govern (and little by way of opposition)?

The law here has been made worthless - not just in this government, but progressively from the turn of this century at least. Prosecution is arbitrary - cases are put on hold for multiple-years without detention - those under charge and on bail allowed to leave the country on trust - biased/corrupt/inept police force and DSI is just a standing comedy act - unrealistic charging (in both directions - rapist illegal taxi drivers receiving driving bans/thugs using metal clubs get 500b fines/well known scammers threatening with firearms on world TV held and released/top cops wives wearing international stolen gems in public /etc - guilty brining libel charges and winning - military being forced to bring charges because the police will not - and so on. The statutes themselves are often vague and contradictory. The law is a weapon for the rich and powerful to use against each other, nothing more - and garners little trust in the rank and file. Most flout it often - some to greater or lesser degrees - and most without any comeback at all - this is doubly so for the wealthy and the powerful. Politicians here are all guilty of breaking one law or another - this is why they throw charges at each other with wanton abandon. Too be vulgar about it, It is a toothless bitch that is whore to all and mother to none.

I agree with you that a '3rd party' is needed desperately, but lets face it, the powers that be, whether it be political, business, military, police and dare i say the various 'independent' agencies and the judiciary are fairly happy with the status quo as they are all benefiting one way or another.

If a genuine 3rd party did start to materialize as a threat, i am sure they would put aside their differences fairly quickly to snuff them out.

I would like to believe if real change and a 3rd party was a possibility, that big business, the TCC, CP's, CG, red bulls etc of this world could help fund and push it. The problem is that these large companies are so intertwined through family links to politics, military, police etc that they cannot possibly do it. I would not mind betting that even someone like Suthep in his extended family has links to all these institutions including the PTP party and Thaksin vice versa.

Sadly it is just impossible to see real reform due to the amount of personal, business, political interests intertwined throughout all organizations here, be them private or Governmental.

[visionchaser45]

Because the Reds have so little support now, you would think the opposition would be anxious to immediately hold an election to gain power legitimately. No? Well, I guess the group that has the most grass-roots support is obvious then.

[mrtoad]

The new venue is so confidential, no one will be there.

All over for Jattuporn.

[Morch]

There is no way that the PDRC funds itself. There are no member fees, and the money handout in rallies don't even come close to covering the bills. Each side got backers with deep pockets.

The PDRC (and related groups) were involved in incidents were violence was directed at red shirts (real or suspected).

Granted, if you add up the incidents and numbers, the PDRC is on the receiving end.

I think several posters have named some of the corporate sponsors of the PDRC. Unlike the UDD, which is funded solely by Thaksin Shinawatra, the PDRC gets its funding from a broad spectrum of society and businesses.

I really don't recall any list of PDRC sponsors (other than the non-published one with the deceased Red Bull founder). There are rumors and "everybody knows" but don't think many big players are actually out there risking a possible backlash. Same holds true, btw, for the red shirts - I don't think (could be wrong) that there was ever any official plausible statement as to how they are funded and by whom. That is not to say that what "everybody knows" isn't true, of course.

Running prolonged mass demonstrations/protest costs a lot of money. Sure that the PDRC gets donations of all kinds, but keeping it all going for months on end takes investment of different caliber. If considering the money that matters - not sure that "broad spectrum of society and businesses" is a good description.

I believe Fryslan boppe said that Singha was a sponsor as well as the other brewery and suggested government supporters drink beer. I'll bet the owners of the business that were burned during the 2010 Red Shirt protests are donors to the anti-government cause. If your company is not one of Thaksin's friends, then you are not getting government contracts and they would probably be supporters. I can see where a lot of businesses don't like the government.

Oh... if Fryslan boppe said so, it must be God's honest truth. Me, I like a bit more solid information.

We'll probably won't get beyond the "it's reasonable to assume" step on the funding issue, but can let it go with a tune and remember that Singha beer don't ask no questions, Singha beer don't tell no lies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtu_IM6cN1o

[wolf5370]

Because the Reds have so little support now, you would think the opposition would be anxious to immediately hold an election to gain power legitimately. No? Well, I guess the group that has the most grass-roots support is obvious then.

There is one way to win a bar fight - be the last man standing. There are two ways of doing that - 1. go in with fist flying and hope to pound the way to the end - or 2. stand back and let everyone else knock <deleted> out of each other than step in and take the prize. Reds are fighting Suthep - Suthep has no party and no mandate and is fighting the PTP. If they all end up broken, bruised and banned, guess who is left to mince in and take the cherry. Dems must be loving it - all the way to the bank - win without raising a hand, simply by waiting for everyone else to kill each other off.

[Dap]

I wonder if their next call to war will brjng as many supporters?

Sent from my GT-S5310 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

On either side of the coin.

[Chupup]

Well guys,
"the check is in the post" so that means you won't get paid.... ..........Oh right............guess we all go home then.....