Obama will encounter a different Asia: Thai opinion

[webfact]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Obama will encounter a different Asia
Kavi Chongkittavorn

BANGKOK: -- When US President Barack Obama returns to Asia - Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines - this week, he will find a continent different to the one he's left unattended since November 2012.

His historic visit to Myanmar back then won admiration, symbolising Washington's astute rebalancing policy. It was the best move of the time as the region was looking to US assurance.

During the intervening 18 months, the regional and international world order, in which the US was the dominant player, has changed dramatically. Globally, the latest events in Ukraine are indicative that power backed by force speaks volumes and is gaining traction in the 21st Century world.

The vast Asian region could be the next test case - otherwise, Daniel R. Russel, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, would not have come out so bluntly with a warning to China not to attempt a Crimea-style use of force in Asia. Beijing was not pleased with Russel trying to link the situation in Ukraine with the disputes in the South China Sea.

Within the region, up north, South Korea-Japan relations have improved in the last week but still remain unfriendly. Instead of synergising common strategies among the region's most important US Asian allies at this critical moment - due to their proximity to China and North Korea - the US has to mend fences among them instead of fearing a further undermining of its own security imperatives.

Over the one plus year, China's diplomatic clout and status has augmented quickly. After the recent National Communist Party Congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidated his leadership domestically, also reflecting clearly on the overall external policies towards the broader Asian region - a direct challenge to the US rebalancing. During Obama's absence from the region, Xi and Premier Li Keqiang travelled throughout it promoting a new regional order.

In response to the new strategic landscape, the US allies in the region - with the exception of Thailand - have already readjusted their policies to maximise Washington's new approach.

Interestingly, more than the US would like to admit, the current regional shifts have more to do with a rising China and the new leadership's assertiveness than the US's new efforts - judging from the flurries of diplomatic activity during the year.

After World War II, the US took nearly four decades before linking the security of the Northeast and Southeast Asia regions as Washington initially worried this collective security would over time diminish the strong bilateral security alliance and overall influence. It was not until the first Clinton Administration that it was decided a common security approach by the US allies and friends was needed to ensure a long-term US presence and stability in the region. At that time, China's rise was not the prominent theme - instead, whatever the rhetoric, it was the issue of engaging or rather containing China.

Throughout the 2000's, ties among the region's most powerful Asian economies -China, Japan and South Korea - were on good and manageable terms. The so-called plus-three group had been the engine of economic growth and accelerator of community-building in East Asia. Asean has been the biggest benefactor. Now, concerns are proliferating that disputes over its members' territorial claims could have spillover effects on their long-standing non-strategic collaborative efforts, especially economic integration in East Asia.

For example, the two giant competing free trade frameworks, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), will determine the region's resiliency and future economic growth. Each economy has to respond to this challenge. Obviously, the present economic order and political alignment are not for fainted-hearted nations. Seven RCEP members are negotiating with the TPP.

Towards the south, the long-standing US ally, the Philippines, has successfully staged a comeback. Manila has done well so far in complimenting Washington's rebalancing through integrating air and maritime defenses with the US strategic blueprints, citing its own lack of defense capability. During the Vietnam War, the Philippines had Thailand as a buddy backing up the American military might. Now, the Philippines is out there alone drawing up its own strategic defense framework.

Thailand, the oldest US ally in Asia, has been left out in the cold. The country's continued political turmoil and uncertainties are partly to blame. Several new US initiatives with Thailand of late have been passed over to other non-US allied nations in the region, weakening the future of the Thai-US security alliance.

Under Obama, the US is giving special emphasis to its allies and, as it turns out, Washington has done it selectively. The recent US-Philippines upgrade of their bilateral security cooperation is a good indicator. Malaysia is not a US ally but its close ties with China have attracted the attention of US strategists. Obama's visit to Malaysia - the first since 1966 - and more consolidated ties will increase the US bargaining position within the region.

During his 8-day trip to Asia, Obama's every word and move will be scrutinised. Given the current global security environment, the US needs good relations with Asia at large more than before. To do that, Obama has to convince those leaders he is meeting and others who are closely watching him, that the US is unwaveringly committed to the region, even after he is long gone.


-- The Nation 2014-04-21

[noitom]

Thailand - left out in the cold. This will be a continuing theme for Thailand with nations around the world.

[Tatsujin]

So, Thailand's not on the agenda? They will be MOST upset about that . . .

[JohnThailandJohn]

Thailand - left out in the cold. This will be a continuing theme for Thailand with nations around the world.

Left out of what?

So, Thailand's not on the agenda? They will be MOST upset about that . . .

Outside Mexico and Canada President Obama has visited less than 15 Countries more than once. Countries like Australia, China, Israel, Singapore, Sweden and Thailand are on the visited once list. The UK is one of the few countries he has visited three times and only once for a visit while the other two were Summits.

Edited April 21, 2014 by JohnThailandJohn

[JoeThePoster]

Looks like Michelle's put her foot down this time.

[focus27]

Strange wording: POTUS has left Asia "unattended"?!

Is Obomber supposed to be Asia's janitor or nanny?

Such blatant grovelling is unbecoming.

[bino]

Looks like Michelle's put her foot down this time.

Indeed- Michelle was most upset when her husband was flirting and taking selfies with the leggy blonde Danish prime minister. (Check out her face in these photos.) She made him change chairs- so much for being the most powerful man in the world. We all know that a woman scorned is a force to be reckoned with.

Absolutely no way that Michelle is going to tolerate him playing with the brainless hottie from Thailand. She has heard all about Thai girls!

Edited April 21, 2014 by bino

[ggt]

Thailand - left out in the cold. This will be a continuing theme for Thailand with nations around the world.

Talk about losing face...! The current Thai political situation is viewed as a sign of leadership weakness and instability...

[bigbamboo]

This visit is for the grown ups only. The last trip was all about Myanmar and Thailand was the doormat.

The US will not be interested in a political basket case Thailand until it comes out of rehab.

[geriatrickid]

Oh boo hoo. The Nation should take a hint from the Philippines. After asking the USA to leave and using US bashing for political gain, the Philippines has come crawling back to the USA asking for help by way of a US military presence which it hopes will act as a deterrent against the imperialistic and expansionist Chinese. South Korean and Japanese nationalists have gone quiet too in respect to a US military presence as they worry about the Chinese and the maniacal North Koreans.

Notice how the aforementioned Asian countries aren't looking to the UN or the spineless EU for assistance? The EU (with the exception of the courageous nation of Poland) has again demonstrated its fundamental weakness in the face of Russian expansionism in its backyard.

And this then brings us back to Thailand. Perhaps once the Thais stop playing games with the USa they can be taken seriously. Remember the stupidity over the request for assistance from NASA and NOA? The corrupt behaviour of the local transport cartel in Phuket during liberty visits from US naval vessels are hardly examples of Thai integrity. While Thailand embarrasses itself, Vietnam has taken a trade and diplomatic initiative with Canada, the USA and Australia. Thailand will suck on a lemon for some time.

[losworld]

Oh boo hoo. The Nation should take a hint from the Philippines. After asking the USA to leave and using US bashing for political gain, the Philippines has come crawling back to the USA asking for help by way of a US military presence which it hopes will act as a deterrent against the imperialistic and expansionist Chinese. South Korean and Japanese nationalists have gone quiet too in respect to a US military presence as they worry about the Chinese and the maniacal North Koreans.

Notice how the aforementioned Asian countries aren't looking to the UN or the spineless EU for assistance? The EU (with the exception of the courageous nation of Poland) has again demonstrated its fundamental weakness in the face of Russian expansionism in its backyard.

And this then brings us back to Thailand. Perhaps once the Thais stop playing games with the USa they can be taken seriously. Remember the stupidity over the request for assistance from NASA and NOA? The corrupt behaviour of the local transport cartel in Phuket during liberty visits from US naval vessels are hardly examples of Thai integrity. While Thailand embarrasses itself, Vietnam has taken a trade and diplomatic initiative with Canada, the USA and Australia. Thailand will suck on a lemon for some time.

I don't know where you get your news but if you are informed it does not take long to realize that the number one imperialistic nation hands down is the U.S.

[spiritrace]

Excellent point geriatrickid, now the Phillipines only want the protection of the US and nothing in trade..... Obama cancelled the Polish missle project and now that came back to bite him on the ass. He's sending 130 troops to bolster Poland. Wow! What a tiny token.

I suggest precaution in dealing with this administration. There are strings attached to everything. Here in the US, everything is about politics, nothing to do with security and progress for the people and other nations. He could have created a lot of good in the world but failed. He followed a doctrine. Sad

[Publicus]

Prez Obama is on this particular four country trip to focus on US formal security treaty allies Japan, South Korea, Phillipines and as the first US president to visit Malaysia in almost 50 years will respond to Malaysia's increasing appeals to the United States to assist it in standing up against Beijing's galloping encroachments there.

The two other US security treaty allies don't presently need or shouldn't have a visit. Australia is doing just fine and anyway will get another O visit in November. A visit to Thailand by the president is out of the question at this time due to the chaos currently occurring and because it would only lead to complications given the emergence of the lunatic Suthep and his self-appointed blasphemous delusion he is the sovereign of the people. Indeed, one can picture Suthep and his street thugs blowing their whistles at Obama and Yingluck together in yet another instance of Suthep's madcap dementia.

Obama's visit to Japan will confirm that Japan has in security terms become to the Indo-Pacific strategic region what the UK is to the United States in respect of Europe, Eurasia and the North Atlantic. Japan is the strongest supporter among all of the region's US formal national security treaty allies of an Indo-Pacific super region Nato, as is the Thai military if not the ammart. Washington in February sent yet another two anti-missile destroyers to join the US 7th Fleet which is based in Japan and Japan next month will be the only Asian ally to receive the new Raptor F-35 fighters.

Japan simultaneously has begun shipping its secret reserve of weapons grade nuclear materials to the US for destruction in order to reduce concerns among Asian nations of Japan's increasing militarization in direct response to Beijing's gross provocations. Japan now will be unable to produce a significant nuclear weapons arsenal within a year of any decision to do so.

In Japan and at Obama's next stop in Seoul Obama will further pursue the dialogue he began on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit last month in the Hague among the United States, Japan and S Korea to begin to move the two historical antagonists closer together. It is in the common interest of both countries, the super region and the United States that Tokyo and Seoul establish a coordinated united front against North Korea and to stand in greater unison against Beijing's belligerence and territorial aggressions that affect each country.

In Kuala Lumpur Obama and PM Najib Razak will further develop an evolving strategic relationship that has seen joint maneuvers between the two navies in response to Beijing's encroachments against the country's Exclusive Economic Zone as established by the UN Convention on the International Law of the Sea.

Both the opposition parties and the governing parties are competing to become allied to Washington, so Obama will hold a town hall meeting with Malaysian youth and civil society groups which are leading the opposition to the government and which are expected to win either the next election or the succeeding one (likely the next one). Obama's visit is also expected to give the government some badly needed credibility after the recent airline disaster and fiasco. Obama is seeking Malaysia's agreement to the Pentagon's plans to base Marines and Special Forces fast boats in Malaysia to combat piracy and terrorism in the Strait of Malacca.

The president will conclude his trip in the Phils where recent public opinion polling found 80% view the United States as a positive player in the world. Filipinos are the second largest population of Asian Americans in the US and the Phils has the largest population of US expats of Asean countries. Defense and economic development are Obama's priorities with President Benigno Aquino who earlier this year said the Boyz in Beijing are "acting like Hitler" in their territorial aggressions throughout the region.

This round of visits by Prez Obama are a prelude to his return to the region in November for the APEC annual meeting in Beijing, the East Asia Summit in Myanmar and the G-20 meeting in Australia when deals are expected to be sealed.

[h90]

Thailand - left out in the cold. This will be a continuing theme for Thailand with nations around the world.

Talk about losing face...! The current Thai political situation is viewed as a sign of leadership weakness and instability...

the current leadership doesn't care about loosing face, only about loosing money or loosing power.

[rakman]

Excellent point geriatrickid, now the Phillipines only want the protection of the US and nothing in trade..... Obama cancelled the Polish missle project and now that came back to bite him on the ass. He's sending 130 troops to bolster Poland. Wow! What a tiny token.

I suggest precaution in dealing with this administration. There are strings attached to everything. Here in the US, everything is about politics, nothing to do with security and progress for the people and other nations. He could have created a lot of good in the world but failed. He followed a doctrine. Sad

Just remember what Obama told the Ukraine:

"If you like your country, you can keep your country."

[JO1973]

"After World War II, the US took nearly four decades before linking the security of the Northeast and Southeast Asia regions as Washington initially worried this collective security would over time diminish the strong bilateral security alliance and overall influence. It was not until the first Clinton Administration that it was decided a common security approach by the US allies and friends was needed to ensure a long-term US presence and stability in the region. At that time, China's rise was not the prominent theme - instead, whatever the rhetoric, it was the issue of engaging or rather containing China."

Wow, what can someone say about such a disregard for history. I have seen this type of 'analysis' before in Thai newspapers. "Took nearly four decades before linking the security of the Northeast and Southeast Asia regions" -- is that little place formerly known as the USSR ever mentioned in Thai schools? There were other areas of the world that demanded attention besides Asia. And to say that it wasn't until Clinton's first term before the US decided on a common security completely disregards the Soviet/China fallout, the former's collapse, and China's shift towards capitalism. Does the writer have any idea that the US and Thailand have been conducting international military exercises with ASEAN and specifically Thailand for decades? Or that the issues concerning the Korean Peninsula and Japan, or China and Taiwan? All of these were part of the US' common security policy.

Thai journalists and academics have this common trait of assuming if Thailand is not directly involved than the rest of Asia isn't either.