over supply c/mai residential mkt,are the dogs out barking?

[evenstevens]

its a good late afternoon to all

my d/d daily email reported the following today

chiangmai and several other provinces are in oversupply mode in the residential market according to several leading b/kok real estate agents

one quoted that during 2013 14 billion baht of c/mai r/property had hit the deck

a staggering 650% rise on 2011 figures

are the dogs out barking?????

[onthedarkside]

Is anyone really surprised to learn this ???

[anto]

Getting ready for the Chinese invasion .They are currently taking up the slack from the Europeans .If it works out fine ,if not there may be loads of cheap Condos flooding the market in 5 years time .

[worgeordie]

Looking around you would never know there is and oversupply

of Houses,Condos,Shophouses

regards worgeordie

are the dogs out barking, is that some real estate jargon?

[mesquite]

Real estate is definitely not my area of expertise, but it seems like many people from China and Bangkok want to move to CM. Just look at the number of Bangkok cars around. I figure the Chinese will figure a way around the no foreign ownership rule. But, I am not putting my money into this. I will continue to rent.

[beau thai]

what does '14billion baht of c/mai r/property had hit the deck' actually mean???

Means nothing to me.

[evenstevens]

what does '14billion baht of c/mai r/property had hit the deck' actually mean???

Means nothing to me.

new property projects were launched

[Diplomatico]

are the dogs out barking, is that some real estate jargon?

I think it means his feet hurt....?

[Thailand]

are the dogs out barking, is that some real estate jargon?

I think it means his feet hurt....?

Barking mad?

[jonwilly]

Building of student accommodation seems to have slowed down in the area around CM Uni, that may be due to a lack of available ground space or this 'Story' that the Uni year is now only 6 months.

john

[evenstevens]

Is anyone really surprised to learn this ???

perhaps a big no

but for my two bobs worth, this is the first peice of news article(that i have read) on a possoble correction in the c/mai res/build ,and from a reasonable creditable source

a couple of b/kok developers have also said they will complete their started projects,and retreat back to b/kok

last week read another interesting article where the b/kok ,new off the plan condo proiects forecast for 2015 we will be down by a whopping 40%

j.M.O.. the dogs are out and barking... and loud

and a very nice morning to all

[Sparkles]

Drive around CM and you will see loads of new shop house developments either completed or under way and the older ones with the shutters down, obviously vacated.

There can't possibly be enough viable businesses to meet what is now available. I see small businesses opening in the new ones and 6 months later the shops are empty. Money laundering , poor decision making ...who knows. There is also a multitude of new condo projects under construction and if its true that many construction workers have returned to their home countries to avoid the Army crackdown on illegal workers progress on them could come to a grinding halt. That has huge knock on effect for fitting out.

A recipe for financial disaster for many developers who have borrowed money. Some will remember the financial melt town in Bangkok in '97, there are still half finished,abandoned buildings all over the city.

Interesting times.

[beau thai]

what does '14billion baht of c/mai r/property had hit the deck' actually mean???

Means nothing to me.

new property projects were launched

So help me with the math please, at, say, 2 mil average, is that about 20 properties a week. If so, doesnt sound like over supply for a town of this size surely??

[evenstevens]

what does '14billion baht of c/mai r/property had hit the deck' actually mean???

Means nothing to me.

new property projects were launched

So help me with the math please, at, say, 2 mil average, is that about 20 properties a week. If so, doesnt sound like over supply for a town of this size surely??

to start with,try 14.BILLION baht then do your calculations

[beau thai]

what does '14billion baht of c/mai r/property had hit the deck' actually mean???

Means nothing to me.

new property projects were launched

So help me with the math please, at, say, 2 mil average, is that about 20 properties a week. If so, doesnt sound like over supply for a town of this size surely??

to start with,try 14.BILLION baht then do your calculations

Tell me more - I DID start with 14 Billion. Where did I go wrong??

[evenstevens]

So help me with the math please, at, say, 2 mil average, is that about 20 properties a week. If so, doesnt sound like over supply for a town of this size surely??

to start with,try 14.BILLION baht then do your calculations

Tell me more - I DID start with 14 Billion. Where did I go wrong??

give u a clue...in english 1 billion=1.000 millions

14 billion =14.000 millions- to play around with..go for it

[MESmith]

Don't you mean 1,000 million & 14,000 million? Decimal points might confuse folk

Quotes messed up

[evenstevens]

just for the purists on the key board

1,000 million

14,000 million

by the way there was a dot placed of course it should have a commar

[beau thai]

I still havent learned anything as that was my starting point too.

So : 14bn/2 million =7000. 7000/365 days =19.2

so 19 new properties a day 'hit the deck' last year to use your expression, or less if the average price was more than the 2 million I used as an example.

I still dont think that is disproportionately high in an expanding city the size of Chiang mai. Others may.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

What about all the new and unsold shopfronts.

Even more of them than condos.

[evenstevens]

I still havent learned anything as that was my starting point too.

So : 14bn/2 million =7000. 7000/365 days =19.2

so 19 new properties a day 'hit the deck' last year to use your expression, or less if the average price was more than the 2 million I used as an example.

I still dont think that is disproportionately high in an expanding city the size of Chiang mai. Others may.

no your starting point . was post# 13 which clearly states 20 propertys per week on the 14 billion baht number

now that your maths has improved with my help, you have the approx the right number of 19.2 per day, on your rule of the thumb figure of 2 mil

a big diff

from 20 a week,, is.nt it????

as for your last line comments, it is good as your maths,

a worry

[TimCM]

I still havent learned anything as that was my starting point too.

So : 14bn/2 million =7000. 7000/365 days =19.2

so 19 new properties a day 'hit the deck' last year to use your expression, or less if the average price was more than the 2 million I used as an example.

I still dont think that is disproportionately high in an expanding city the size of Chiang mai. Others may.

That would be a lot

Melbourne averages around 600 sales per week with a city of 5m. Chiang mai has a population of around 150k.

Another way to look at it would be 140 properties a week for 150k people is 1 property for every 1071 people, every week. Or 1 in 20 per year buying a property

Also, i dont think a true average for the whole city would be B2m

[beau thai]

I still havent learned anything as that was my starting point too.

So : 14bn/2 million =7000. 7000/365 days =19.2

so 19 new properties a day 'hit the deck' last year to use your expression, or less if the average price was more than the 2 million I used as an example.

I still dont think that is disproportionately high in an expanding city the size of Chiang mai. Others may.

no your starting point . was post# 13 which clearly states 20 propertys per week on the 14 billion baht number

now that your maths has improved with my help, you have the approx the right number of 19.2 per day, on your rule of the thumb figure of 2 mil

a big diff

from 20 a week,, is.nt it????

as for your last line comments, it is good as your maths,

a worry

Thanks for your 'help'

[Thighlander]

http://www.krungsriproperty.com/smallassetquery.asp#

I see they have 9 condos for sale in the entire province. Most of them junk they have been trying to sell for years. The big price drops come when the NPLs hit critical mass, and by banking regulations (in place since the last crash), they have to deal with them. The ones being built are mostly already sold. Notice, there is almost always phase 1, 2, 3, etc... . Phase 1 is sold out before it is half built, and they won't even begin phase 2 unless there are significant sales in it, as well. In a big downturn, you will have lots of people walking away from their deposits/down-payments and you will get the skeletons, but it took a currency collapse last time, and that is nearly impossible this time around. Buying to rent out in Chiang Mai? I would say there are more liquid investments that will give you the same return. Need a place of your own and don't want to rent? Try to find a good deal. Between the motorbike deaths and the general high expat age...there are people dying out there, and people that must return to their home countries for whatever reason. Bargain a tough deal, and be patient. Compared to the many parts of the World, where most visitors to CNX come from, prices are jokingly low. Someone is selling 400 wah up here by CMU for 20,000 per wah. While that is 600,000 usd per acre +/-, keep in mind prime land in Sathorn, Sukhumvit, and Silom is going for 1.6 million thb per wah; 80 times more! Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore? Forgetaboutit'.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

http://www.krungsriproperty.com/smallassetquery.asp#

I see they have 9 condos for sale in the entire province. Most of them junk they have been trying to sell for years. The big price drops come when the NPLs hit critical mass, and by banking regulations (in place since the last crash), they have to deal with them. The ones being built are mostly already sold. Notice, there is almost always phase 1, 2, 3, etc... . Phase 1 is sold out before it is half built, and they won't even begin phase 2 unless there are significant sales in it, as well. In a big downturn, you will have lots of people walking away from their deposits/down-payments and you will get the skeletons, but it took a currency collapse last time, and that is nearly impossible this time around. Buying to rent out in Chiang Mai? I would say there are more liquid investments that will give you the same return. Need a place of your own and don't want to rent? Try to find a good deal. Between the motorbike deaths and the general high expat age...there are people dying out there, and people that must return to their home countries for whatever reason. Bargain a tough deal, and be patient. Compared to the many parts of the World, where most visitors to CNX come from, prices are jokingly low. Someone is selling 400 wah up here by CMU for 20,000 per wah. While that is 600,000 usd per acre +/-, keep in mind prime land in Sathorn, Sukhumvit, and Silom is going for 1.6 million thb per wah; 80 times more! Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore? Forgetaboutit'.

They aren't really sold, flippers aren't real buyers.

Which is why the condos are mostly empty after completion.

Not forgetting the 51% Thai ownership portion that is often retained by the developer with no attempt to ever sell.

Some condos in Cm have every other floor walled off, no fittings or fixtures ever put in, no showers or toilets fitted.

[Thighlander]

A "flipper" would actually take possession of the chinot, but I think you are talking about the people, who buy before it is built and sell the rights to buy, and never take possession. Some are sold several times before completion. That has quieted down a little. I would do searches under 500K, and I would get about 200 listings...almost all were buy downpayment, and then come up with the other 2 million at completion. They were doing that in the US, too, until many builders put a stop to it. Also, there were situations, when builders significantly reduced prices so much, that people would forfeit their deposit, and buy an identical unit across the hall at the new price, and be a few hundred thousand usd ahead. The State bird of Nevada was the (construction) Crane.....it ended with units being sold at 25 cents on the Dollar...the vast majority of it caused by liar loans...which are much harder to get here, and don't really even apply to the 49% foreign quota.

My building has 120 units.....2 for sale...and you have to poke around to find them, because there are zero signs. But, if you use the "no lights on" method, you would think it is a ghost town. If I walk the perimeter right now at 23:10; there will be less than 10 units with lights showing from the streets.