Pound/Baht

[Rimmer]

Off topic confrontational posts and replies removed

7) Respect fellow members by posting in a civil manner: do not launch personal attacks, or be hateful or insulting towards other members, ie No flaming

[chiang mai]

I posted yesterday on the impact of interest rates on exports and spending, this morning, Archie Norman, one of the best business brains of the past fifty years, talks about exactly the same thing. For anyone interested in UK economics and the Pound, it's an excellent piece. Some key extracts:

"Both the UK and US economies have become extraordinarily dependent on the combination of high levels of consumer debt and very low savings rates. About two thirds of UK GDP growth between 1997 and 2007 was driven by consumption and more than 100pc of that could be explained by increase in consumer leverage – primarily mortgages and housing".

"This makes the UK recovery dependent on consumer confidence and there are clouds on the horizon: interest rates will rise sooner or later, and probably prior to the election".

"Interest rate rises will have another dampening effect because the pound will strengthen. Eurosceptics tend to think one of the advantages of being out of the Euro is that we will control our own currency. We don’t. Already exporters are complaining about the strength of the pound. We know that interest rates in Euroland are likely to remain low. Europe accounts for about 40pc of our exports so sterling’s exchange rate against the euro is crucial and this is now moving in exactly the wrong direction".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10963751/Real-threat-to-a-UK-recovery.html

[chiang mai]

Some interesting views on GBP forecasts here:

http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/

And to balance things, here's two forecasts on the Thai economy from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank:

http://www.adb.org/countries/thailand/economy

http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/GEP/GEP2014b/GEP2014b_EAP.pdf

The combination of all that should go some way towards helping people better understand the timing of trading Pound for Baht and vice versa.

Edited July 13, 2014 by chiang mai

[i claudius]

Some interesting views on GBP forecasts here:

http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/

And to balance things, here's two forecasts on the Thai economy from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank:

http://www.adb.org/countries/thailand/economy

http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/GEP/GEP2014b/GEP2014b_EAP.pdf

The combination of all that should go some way towards helping people better understand the timing of trading Pound for Baht and vice versa.

With the pound sterling report ,a few days ago ,one of the other reporters was saying that the pound will remain high for the foreseable future , its all guesswork ,only a few months ago they were saying the pound would now be down to 145 to 150 to the pound ,as i have always said ,my forecasting is ALWAYS 50% right , it will go up or down.

Edited July 13, 2014 by i claudius

[chiang mai]

The 50/50 approach means that you don't know, you haven't formed an opinion one way or the other, either because you haven't read up on the subject or because you've not come across anything that sways your view or because you don't understand the issue. That leaves the 50/0 approach as pure chance, guesswork or the flip of a coin. I think that if I was about to exchange a wadge of GBP into THB (as you have said you were about to do) I would at least want to try and understand some of the issues and then make something of an informed guess, there's a fair chance of getting it wrong but at least it was a try!

[i claudius]

The 50/50 approach means that you don't know, you haven't formed an opinion one way or the other, either because you haven't read up on the subject or because you've not come across anything that sways your view or because you don't understand the issue. That leaves the 50/0 approach as pure chance, guesswork or the flip of a coin. I think that if I was about to exchange a wadge of GBP into THB (as you have said you were about to do) I would at least want to try and understand some of the issues and then make something of an informed guess, there's a fair chance of getting it wrong but at least it was a try!

You hit the nail on the head when you said "an informed guess" thats all any of us hexperts and prols do ,and by the way i did exchange at 55.20 ,i need to change more in oct ,then i will make another"informed guess ,i read the same pages you do obviously .

[chiang mai]

Nobody has ever suggested that forecasting is anything other than an informed guess, of which risk assessment is apart, it's about reducing the odds from 50/50 to something better than than even if it's only 49/51.

And if you did in fact exchange at 55.20 you did amazingly well since that was the recent peak, 55.43 less the bank margin would have got you very close to 55.20 on 3rd or 8th July, the days in-between were holidays or weekend, how clever you are!

[mccw]

By the end of year I hope to be out of UK property and leaving almost no cash there at all.

Ready for the next crash

[i claudius]

Nobody has ever suggested that forecasting is anything other than an informed guess, of which risk assessment is apart, it's about reducing the odds from 50/50 to something better than than even if it's only 49/51.

And if you did in fact exchange at 55.20 you did amazingly well since that was the recent peak, 55.43 less the bank margin would have got you very close to 55.20 on 3rd or 8th July, the days in-between were holidays or weekend, how clever you are!

Thank you ,see i do know what i am on about.even if i sometimes cannot be bothered to write about it at length

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Nobody has ever suggested that forecasting is anything other than an informed guess, of which risk assessment is apart, it's about reducing the odds from 50/50 to something better than than even if it's only 49/51.

And if you did in fact exchange at 55.20 you did amazingly well since that was the recent peak, 55.43 less the bank margin would have got you very close to 55.20 on 3rd or 8th July, the days in-between were holidays or weekend, how clever you are!

Thank you ,see i do know what i am on about.even if i sometimes cannot be bothered to write about it at length

You only did well if it is the peak before you needed the money.

By the end of the year it will be 60, Thailand's economy under a military dictatorship is doomed.

How can I predict this?

From history of the world. $ and GBP can go up and down a little but,

Junta = currency devaluation always.

[mccw]

£ can go up and down a little bit?

30% at the last crash and QEing.

What does money printing equal historically?

Junta = devaluation "always"

Can you back that up with some facts and examples?

If you cherry pick a few I am sure I could cherry pick a few others to disprove the claim.

Just a load of bar stool hot air.

[chiang mai]

Hilarious, one doesn't do sarcasm, the other doesn't do fact, big sigh!

http://www.bangkokbank.com/BangkokBank/PERSONALBANKING/SPECIALSERVICES/FOREIGNCUSTOMERS/Pages/FXRates.aspx

Edited July 13, 2014 by chiang mai

[i claudius]

Oh i can do sarcasm ,but then its wasted on a winner

[chiang mai]

Oh i can do sarcasm ,but then its wasted on a winner

How kind, I'm guessing you intended whiner, or maybe not and it was simply Freudian!

Foot, shoot!

A fun interval, now back to currency and forex.

Edited July 13, 2014 by chiang mai

[i claudius]

Oh i can do sarcasm ,but then its wasted on a winner

How kind, I'm guessing you intended whiner, or maybe not and it was simply Freudian!

Foot, shoot!

A fun interval, now back to currency and forex.

Oh c'mon Chiang Mia your not a whiner,don't put yourself down ok that's it ,back to the thread.

[chiang mai]

Oh i can do sarcasm ,but then its wasted on a winner

How kind, I'm guessing you intended whiner, or maybe not and it was simply Freudian!

Foot, shoot!

A fun interval, now back to currency and forex.

Oh c'mon Chiang Mia your not a whiner,don't put yourself down ok that's it ,back to the thread.

And now I've become your wife it seems (Mia), what a ghastly thought that is. Foot, other one, shoot more.

[chiang mai]

The entire page is reasonable banter, but mostly it's all useless drivel and pathetic panting. Perhaps the Mods can clean it up a little, with my sincere apologies.

The dim hope remains that a reasonable conversation on this subject exists out there, somewhere, or maybe not.

[i claudius]

The entire page is reasonable banter, but mostly it's all useless drivel and pathetic panting. Perhaps the Mods can clean it up a little, with my sincere apologies.

The dim hope remains that a reasonable conversation on this subject exists out there, somewhere, or maybe not.

How dare you ,i have a wife ,your my Mia noi

as for a reasonable debate ,i doubt it , but yes we should try , oh and by the way there were no charges when i exchanged my money ,as you may have seen i was recently in the UK it was cash i exchanged,

[AnotherOneAmerican]

£ can go up and down a little bit?

30% at the last crash and QEing.

What does money printing equal historically?

Junta = devaluation "always"

Can you back that up with some facts and examples?

If you cherry pick a few I am sure I could cherry pick a few others to disprove the claim.

Just a load of bar stool hot air.

I'm more of a "lazing on the sofa at home" hot air sort of person.

No alcohol for me, ever.

[chiang mai]

It's important to be aware of drug interactions, I agree!

[SheungWan]

By the end of year I hope to be out of UK property and leaving almost no cash there at all.

Ready for the next crash

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with what you are doing on the 2 counts that prices are good and the pound is high. I don't agree with your reasons given but always better to look at what people do rather than the why. The older one gets the more rationale to go liquid.

[mccw]

By the end of year I hope to be out of UK property and leaving almost no cash there at all.

Ready for the next crash

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with what you are doing on the 2 counts that prices are good and the pound is high. I don't agree with your reasons given but always better to look at what people do rather than the why. The older one gets the more rationale to go liquid.

Hello

Yes- pound stronger and prices risen nicely for us. (Double the equity over all ie net results after paying back loans.

The unclear effect/ value of the new capital gains tax on nonresidents ,which is coming in early next year, was a big reason too.

Being a bit dramatic with the crash talk; although I do think we are close to the top of current cycle. But personally it makes sense as you describe anyway; also because I have ways to make the same or more with out the legal head aches of the British tenant rights and nosey over regulating council inspectors. Given these last two points and especially if the proposed ending of the tax free allowance for British non residents is implemented then I may not invest again at all; but if I did I would take the operation upmarket a bit and less or no leverage. It was a good few years but now done alright out of it no need to repeat the high risk and high headache levels I don't think.

[chiang mai]

Before you ask, it was the UK inflation report.

[MJP]

By the end of year I hope to be out of UK property and leaving almost no cash there at all.

Ready for the next crash

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with what you are doing on the 2 counts that prices are good and the pound is high. I don't agree with your reasons given but always better to look at what people do rather than the why. The older one gets the more rationale to go liquid.

Inflation up 1.9% in June. House prices up >20% in London over the year, 10% nationally. Interest rate rises coming.

[mccw]

I don't think they can raise interest rates much without screwing up most people consumer spending- which is what the british economy is basically based on.

By the end of year I hope to be out of UK property and leaving almost no cash there at all.

Ready for the next crash

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with what you are doing on the 2 counts that prices are good and the pound is high. I don't agree with your reasons given but always better to look at what people do rather than the why. The older one gets the more rationale to go liquid.

Inflation up 1.9% in June. House prices up >20% in London over the year, 10% nationally. Interest rate rises coming.

[chiang mai]

A piece here that talks about the cyclical reversal of The Dollar:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10972348/Fed-kicks-off-global-dollar-squeeze-as-Janet-Yellen-turns-hawkish.html#disqus_thread

It's one persons views based recent testimony by Janet Yellen,

The BOE is now suggesting that UK rates will hit 2.5% in three years and 5% in ten years, remember the good old days of 6.5% returns, they're a ways off yet!

I'll be interested to hear anyone else's views on whether they think it's getting close to Dollar buying time, seems to me that with GBP at a high, that moment can't be far off.

Edited July 16, 2014 by chiang mai

[i claudius]

A piece here that talks about the cyclical reversal of The Dollar:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10972348/Fed-kicks-off-global-dollar-squeeze-as-Janet-Yellen-turns-hawkish.html#disqus_thread

It's one persons views based recent testimony by Janet Yellen,

The BOE is now suggesting that UK rates will hit 2.5% in three years and 5% in ten years, remember the good old days of 6.5% returns, they're a ways off yet!

I'll be interested to hear anyone else's views on whether they think it's getting close to Dollar buying time, seems to me that with GBP at a high, that moment can't be far off.

While i believe you and they may be right ,i also remember that a year ago they were forecasting that the pound dollar ratio should have been 1.50 to the pound by now, i do feel that like me ,they are right 50% of the time ,who knows?

however we are discussing the pound /baht ratio on the thread ,so as i know the baht follows the dollor to some extent ,do you think the baht ,pound ratio may change? bearing in mind things here can change very quickly.

Also things could change in the UK or in America.

Edited July 17, 2014 by i claudius

[chiang mai]

Bear nibbles anyone!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10996710/The-pound-is-overvalued-warns-the-IMF.html

[i claudius]

Bear nibbles anyone!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10996710/The-pound-is-overvalued-warns-the-IMF.html

read above,i cant be bothered to re write it.

[i claudius]

Bear nibbles anyone!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10996710/The-pound-is-overvalued-warns-the-IMF.html

read above,i cant be bothered to re write it.

Apologies,i posted this answer in the wrong thread ,what i meant regarding the telegraph article was posted in THB stronger over the last 24 hours , and what i wrote regarding the I M F . once again apologies