Real Estate Bubble

[evenstevens]

perhaps a smaller r/estate outfit,but they do update their website accordingly as i am listed with them and they ring me every few months or so to confirm that my property is still up for sale

one of the very few who do so

condos for sale 81....rent..116

house for sale 388..rent.. 322

still mind boggling numbers then add on the private sector plus in the pipeline = oversupply (j.m.o.)

[cloudhopper]

Usually in a bubble prices (bid) are rising rapidly, credit is easy and there is a high rate of speculative turnover. That doesn't seem to be happening in CM now. There is however apparently considerable investment in projects that would seem to make little economic sense but IMO that is cash desperately looking for a laundry.

Not exactly the topic at hand but often forgotten are the many outstanding benefits of ownership (even in the FFF group!) outside of the purely economic aspects being discussed here.

[xylophone]

It seems I live in a different world than so many in Thailand and the CM area... I cannot imagine why anyone would travel half way around the world to a lovely tropical country and live in low rise / mid rise / high rise condo in a fast growing and increasingly urbanized area... Simply amazing ... Never the less... the real culprit over the past two- three years has been the political turmoil with abundant violence, followed by military take over, and now we have a systematic crackdown on foreigners working and or just living in Thailand (for reasons justified or not).

In my estimation the whole concept of over built - over hyped condo and other housing types in CM and elsewhere in Thailand is on very shaky ground. The economics of over building in the presence of happenings that discourage immigration of those with disposable income done on a large scale portends a really bad future outcome (IMO). Maybe the Chinese will save the day - but I really doubt it.

And this discussion says little to nothing about the overbuilt resort, hotel, guest house, bungalow, etc, rental market in CM and elsewhere that will end up competing with empty condos. Which only adds to the prognosis of a bad outcome... It is the law of supply and demand governed heavily by available disposable income of available customers ... which are factors greatly ignored...

Lots of good points in your post, IMO.

Firstly though, the people that come here do so for many different reasons, and living in a condo is fine by them. Anyway, living in the beautiful lush countryside would usually mean buying a house/farm/ villa, and because you can't own the land, then that makes some people a little nervy (haven't seen many like this for rent). Add to that the fact that there could be quite a bit of upkeep and there you have just a couple of reasons.

I think your points about overbuilding are spot on because many of these condos are being bought by Thais who really can't afford them, because of the promise of great rental returns, thereby thinking that they can become successful investors. The overbuilding of resorts, hotels, guest houses, bungalows etc as you mention means that these investment condos are competing in that market, and it doesn't seem too flash at the moment.

In my area of Thailand, there are still empty condos in developments that were finished three or four years ago, yet still many more are on the go.

The poster "beau thai" also makes some good points in his large post, and for me, having owned property over here, my main reasons why I won't again are: – I can't own the land (legally at least); I can't easily sell and move should I not like the area because it has become overdeveloped (as happened to me) or inhabited by undesirables; if I want to depart this country in a hurry because of laws being passed or government/Army unrest, I can't because I have a lot of capital tied up; and of course the feeling of "freedom" and being able to move when I want, on my terms, Is of paramount importance to me now that I have had experience in this country for some 10 years.

Edited August 12, 2014 by xylophone

[jaideeguy]

Usually in a bubble prices (bid) are rising rapidly, credit is easy and there is a high rate of speculative turnover. That doesn't seem to be happening in CM now. There is however apparently considerable investment in projects that would seem to make little economic sense but IMO that is cash desperately looking for a laundry.

Not exactly the topic at hand but often forgotten are the many outstanding benefits of ownership (even in the FFF group!) outside of the purely economic aspects being discussed here.

Agree with the satisfaction factor of owning, designing and building your house [home] the way you want it and not living in a factory cookie cutter gated moo baan that some developer designed for mass appeal with all the same same houses so close together, but in buying the land, designing and building your own dream house, you limit your sell-ability to a much smaller group that has the same taste as you. I think that less than 1 % of buyers would live where and how I live. That's great until you may want to sell some day in the future, which I am finding out now.

[mesquite]

Usually in a bubble prices (bid) are rising rapidly, credit is easy and there is a high rate of speculative turnover. That doesn't seem to be happening in CM now. There is however apparently considerable investment in projects that would seem to make little economic sense but IMO that is cash desperately looking for a laundry.

Not exactly the topic at hand but often forgotten are the many outstanding benefits of ownership (even in the FFF group!) outside of the purely economic aspects being discussed here.

FFF group?

[onthedarkside]

Usually in a bubble prices (bid) are rising rapidly, credit is easy and there is a high rate of speculative turnover. That doesn't seem to be happening in CM now. There is however apparently considerable investment in projects that would seem to make little economic sense but IMO that is cash desperately looking for a laundry.

Not exactly the topic at hand but often forgotten are the many outstanding benefits of ownership (even in the FFF group!) outside of the purely economic aspects being discussed here.

FFF group?

My good friend Google suggest - Friends, Family and Fools

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Usually in a bubble prices (bid) are rising rapidly, credit is easy and there is a high rate of speculative turnover. That doesn't seem to be happening in CM now. There is however apparently considerable investment in projects that would seem to make little economic sense but IMO that is cash desperately looking for a laundry.

Not exactly the topic at hand but often forgotten are the many outstanding benefits of ownership (even in the FFF group!) outside of the purely economic aspects being discussed here.

Agree with the satisfaction factor of owning, designing and building your house [home] the way you want it and not living in a factory cookie cutter gated moo baan that some developer designed for mass appeal with all the same same houses so close together, but in buying the land, designing and building your own dream house, you limit your sell-ability to a much smaller group that has the same taste as you. I think that less than 1 % of buyers would live where and how I live. That's great until you may want to sell some day in the future, which I am finding out now.

Thai cookie cutter moobaan has great community spirit.

I can chuck the kids out in the street, always others to play with and someone to watch them.

Food and stores 200m down the road.

[mesquite]

Usually in a bubble prices (bid) are rising rapidly, credit is easy and there is a high rate of speculative turnover. That doesn't seem to be happening in CM now. There is however apparently considerable investment in projects that would seem to make little economic sense but IMO that is cash desperately looking for a laundry.

Not exactly the topic at hand but often forgotten are the many outstanding benefits of ownership (even in the FFF group!) outside of the purely economic aspects being discussed here.

FFF group?

My good friend Google suggest - Friends, Family and Fools

Thanks. I got Foods Fats & Fertilisers Ltd

Edited August 12, 2014 by mesquite

[evenstevens]

but in buying the land, designing and building your own dream house, you limit your sell-ability to a much smaller group that has the same taste as you. I think that less than 1 % of buyers would live where and how I live. That's great until you may want to sell some day in the future, which I am finding out now.

yes jaidee,that has a lot of merit^^^^^^but take a look at the numbers that i have posted this morning,thats the competition u are facing fullstop

our property has been on the market for 18 months or more,heaps of views but just a nibble here and there,honestly a chinn (with a agent) just cast a blind eye only a couple hrs ago,and fluffed off inside 10 mins, who cares its the nature of the market (again its a buyers one), we totally knew what lay ahead, and it is subquently playing out that way, its hard to flog anything in thailand,unless its at a bargain price my g/f uses this phrase* who s going to buy* and i would return *it only takes one* to this piont of time she is correct,and way ahead on pionts

all in all i have enjoyed the past 18 months,learnt the market plus the tricks the agents use etc etc,and the whims of the viewers,good and bad

and we are motivated to sell and have discounted accordingly to find that elusive win/win situation, and take it from me the chinns are here bigtime, perhaps fluffing around,but it only takes one

relax matey, don t beat yourself up, and play it as a game, your buyer may be just around that elusive corner, i certainly hope so, and i mean that

[AnotherOneAmerican]

all in all i have enjoyed the past 18 months,learnt the market plus the tricks the agents use etc etc,and the whims of the viewers,good and bad

and we are motivated to sell and have discounted accordingly to find that elusive win/win situation, and take it from me the chinns are here bigtime, perhaps fluffing around,but it only takes one

You clearly haven't learned the market, or it would have been sold by now.

I'm guessing here, you paid too much, now you want to sell for too much.

(As is the foreigner way)

[spidermike007]

Seems to be a few misconceptions about bubbles. A bubble is when the value of the asset rises with no relationship to the rise in income from the asset.

So as I am not familiar with the CM housing market, could some residents share if rental returns have risen at a similar rate to housing prices.

I have a keen interest as I am moving there next week but it seems like a massive change since I was last there (18 months ago)

cheers

Rental values have rarely been correlated to the value of property in Thailand. It just does not scale in the same manner. Rentals are in my opinion cheap in comparison with the stated value of property

Exactly. I have a friend who lives in a hilltop villa, that is worth (supposedly) a million dollars. He pays 45,000 baht per month to lease it long term. Who is taking the shorts on that deal? It is a renters market for sure. More so in some areas, than in others. I think over time, it will become even more of a renters market. A correction is inevitable. And that is assuming the world economy just keeps on humming along. If there is a major economic crisis in the near future, all bets are off. I doubt the market will drop here, like it will in the west, where it stands the chance of dropping like a brick, in the event of something serious. But, correct it will. Just a matter of time.

Spidermike

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect

[northernjohn]

It seems I live in a different world than so many in Thailand and the CM area... I cannot imagine why anyone would travel half way around the world to a lovely tropical country and live in low rise / mid rise / high rise condo in a fast growing and increasingly urbanized area... Simply amazing ... Never the less... the real culprit over the past two- three years has been the political turmoil with abundant violence, followed by military take over, and now we have a systematic crackdown on foreigners working and or just living in Thailand (for reasons justified or not).

In my estimation the whole concept of over built - over hyped condo and other housing types in CM and elsewhere in Thailand is on very shaky ground. The economics of over building in the presence of happenings that discourage immigration of those with disposable income done on a large scale portends a really bad future outcome (IMO). Maybe the Chinese will save the day - but I really doubt it.

And this discussion says little to nothing about the overbuilt resort, hotel, guest house, bungalow, etc, rental market in CM and elsewhere that will end up competing with empty condos. Which only adds to the prognosis of a bad outcome... It is the law of supply and demand governed heavily by available disposable income of available customers ... which are factors greatly ignored...

Lots of good points in your post, IMO.

Firstly though, the people that come here do so for many different reasons, and living in a condo is fine by them. Anyway, living in the beautiful lush countryside would usually mean buying a house/farm/ villa, and because you can't own the land, then that makes some people a little nervy (haven't seen many like this for rent). Add to that the fact that there could be quite a bit of upkeep and there you have just a couple of reasons.

I think your points about overbuilding are spot on because many of these condos are being bought by Thais who really can't afford them, because of the promise of great rental returns, thereby thinking that they can become successful investors. The overbuilding of resorts, hotels, guest houses, bungalows etc as you mention means that these investment condos are competing in that market, and it doesn't seem too flash at the moment.

In my area of Thailand, there are still empty condos in developments that were finished three or four years ago, yet still many more are on the go.

The poster "beau thai" also makes some good points in his large post, and for me, having owned property over here, my main reasons why I won't again are: – I can't own the land (legally at least); I can't easily sell and move should I not like the area because it has become overdeveloped (as happened to me) or inhabited by undesirables; if I want to depart this country in a hurry because of laws being passed or government/Army unrest, I can't because I have a lot of capital tied up; and of course the feeling of "freedom" and being able to move when I want, on my terms, Is of paramount importance to me now that I have had experience in this country for some 10 years.

A point over looked in the renting is that there are people like myself who have had all the materialistic things that go with owning and are sick and tired of the upkeep. We just want to spend the rest of are lives not being responsible to what we own. It is a great freedom.

I often tell people who get off on this it cost less bit.

I am where you are trying to get to. Retirement is great.

Now if you like maintaince gardening and general upkeep plus do not like people near you buying is the way to go. Not many places for rent that will give you all that. You can ask a landlord to have some thing taken care of. But will it be done?

[heybruce]

What is keeping this topic going is an absence of real information, allowing speculation and opinions to run free. To my knowledge there is no credible source for historical data on house and condo sales--price, price per square meter, time on market, etc., for Chiang Mai or Thailand. If anyone can provide such information I'm sure many potential buyers and sellers would be very grateful. Without it the market and market direction are pure guesswork.

Here's a business opportunity, does anyone want to initiate a Zillow for Thailand?

Edited August 12, 2014 by heybruce

[xylophone]

but in buying the land, designing and building your own dream house, you limit your sell-ability to a much smaller group that has the same taste as you. I think that less than 1 % of buyers would live where and how I live. That's great until you may want to sell some day in the future, which I am finding out now.

yes jaidee,that has a lot of merit^^^^^^but take a look at the numbers that i have posted this morning,thats the competition u are facing fullstop

our property has been on the market for 18 months or more,heaps of views but just a nibble here and there,honestly a chinn (with a agent) just cast a blind eye only a couple hrs ago,and fluffed off inside 10 mins, who cares its the nature of the market (again its a buyers one), we totally knew what lay ahead, and it is subquently playing out that way, its hard to flog anything in thailand,unless its at a bargain price my g/f uses this phrase* who s going to buy* and i would return *it only takes one* to this piont of time she is correct,and way ahead on pionts

all in all i have enjoyed the past 18 months,learnt the market plus the tricks the agents use etc etc,and the whims of the viewers,good and bad

and we are motivated to sell and have discounted accordingly to find that elusive win/win situation, and take it from me the chinns are here bigtime, perhaps fluffing around,but it only takes one

relax matey, don t beat yourself up, and play it as a game, your buyer may be just around that elusive corner, i certainly hope so, and i mean that

I have sold two houses in Thailand over the past four years, and although I listed the houses with a few select real estate agents, I sold them through my own efforts, the most successful of which I am willing to share with you.

– – I put together a montage of four photographs, filling one half of an A4 sheet of paper, and these were of the kitchen, bathroom, main bedroom and the front of the house.

The intro to the property was short and sweet with just a few key important/positive points.

Under that I listed, bullet point fashion, the key attributes I thought the house had and which would appeal most to buyers. And of course names and telephone numbers.

– – I then e-mailed this to all of my friends and acquaintances here and overseas and asked them in turn if they would send it on likewise. I stated I would pay 3% commission for a sale.

– – I also e-mailed it to a few contacts I knew who had their own businesses (one was an insurance agent, for example) and asked them if they would approach/send on the details to any customers they thought would be interested, commission as stated above.

– – I ensured that the word was spread through any Thai friends I or my G/F had, with the offer of 3% commission payable to them and you would be surprised how well that worked.

– – I put small ads in two of the local newspapers and ran them for two weeks at a time, then a gap, then again.

– – The houses were advertised on the "Thaivisa" website, as well as "Baht & Sold" and I sourced some websites from Germany, Sweden and Norway which allowed me to advertise free.

– – I laminated some of the A4 sheets and put them behind the bars of friends I had in that business.

– – There are many real estate "booths" in my town, so I carried with me quite a number of my A4 sheets whenever I went out in the shopping malls, and when I saw people chatting to the folks manning these booths, I would hang around and when these people left, I would approach them and see if they were interested in buying a house, giving them my details.

– – As there were a few similar "estates" like mine, I visited the caretakers/overseers of the estates and gave them my details in case there were interested parties who didn't like what they saw in that estate. Of course commission mentioned again.

My marketing produced just about all of the prospects I had on these two houses (they were sold separately, perhaps a year apart) and I sold both of them through my own efforts.

If you have good real estate agents, then by all means use them but don't rely on them to work hard on your behalf, because they simply won't.

Finally, as regards price, mine was priced the same as four other houses for sale in my soi, and I was willing to negotiate a few hundred thousand baht, which I did, and as I made money from the initial purchase price, I was happy. A win-win situation.

I hope this will be of some help to you.

[beau thai]

It seems I live in a different world than so many in Thailand and the CM area... I cannot imagine why anyone would travel half way around the world to a lovely tropical country and live in low rise / mid rise / high rise condo in a fast growing and increasingly urbanized area... Simply amazing ... Never the less... the real culprit over the past two- three years has been the political turmoil with abundant violence, followed by military take over, and now we have a systematic crackdown on foreigners working and or just living in Thailand (for reasons justified or not).

In my estimation the whole concept of over built - over hyped condo and other housing types in CM and elsewhere in Thailand is on very shaky ground. The economics of over building in the presence of happenings that discourage immigration of those with disposable income done on a large scale portends a really bad future outcome (IMO). Maybe the Chinese will save the day - but I really doubt it.

And this discussion says little to nothing about the overbuilt resort, hotel, guest house, bungalow, etc, rental market in CM and elsewhere that will end up competing with empty condos. Which only adds to the prognosis of a bad outcome... It is the law of supply and demand governed heavily by available disposable income of available customers ... which are factors greatly ignored...

'I cannot imagine why anyone would travel half way around the world to a lovely tropical country and live in low rise / mid rise / high rise condo in a fast growing and increasingly urbanized area... Simply amazing ..'

I am amazed that you are amazed by the many of us preferring condo life.

I have done (and had in spades) the big family home thing for years and now I am older, have no appetite for the maintenance and upkeep that goes with it.

I like to be near the city for great choice of eating, drinking, sport, movies,malls etc etc.

I like to live high because the air is cleaner, the views are better, there is usually some light breeze, even when airless below-and it is quiet- no barking dogs.. A terrace is a must for me and I love the view over the trees, and river to the mountains beyond. I even like to sit on the terrace at night with a glass of something and watch, but hot hear, the distant planes come and go to the airport.

And it is so convenient. Engineers on site if anything needs doing- which is rare. No garden or land to maintain which bores me now- I am happy to watch others do it for me.

Each to their own but I find it harder to understand why anyone wants to live in a house out of town. My older brother lived 25km out of town in Scotland on a nice small farm and, when I was there, he had to go into town for a tap washer. Got the wrong one so went again. 100km for a tap washer. No thanks.

Guess I am a city boy. I have tried the country and know which works best for me.

[evenstevens]

all in all i have enjoyed the past 18 months,learnt the market plus the tricks the agents use etc etc,and the whims of the viewers,good and bad

and we are motivated to sell and have discounted accordingly to find that elusive win/win situation, and take it from me the chinns are here bigtime, perhaps fluffing around,but it only takes one

You clearly haven't learned the market, or it would have been sold by now.

I'm guessing here, you paid too much, now you want to sell for too much.

(As is the foreigner way)

kudos to A.O.A, at last he has got something right

he is guessing, send in the clowns

a very nice arvo to all

[mamborobert]

Might be a bit harsh Evenstevens. CM is littered with Farang's selling who want what they paid several years ago at the exchange rate they had several years ago, or have customized a house to such an extent that its pool of prospective buyers is substantially reduced (if I was going to pay that sort of dollar I might as well build MY own dream house), or worse still sellers who value a house on what they need to re-establish themselves in their home country.

Its not unusual to see places on the market for years (deteriorating) and the smarter ones if you can call them that reducing the original asking price by a third or more.

New houses are relatively cheap here so top dollar for a "used" house is hard to maintain especially when you have no knowledge of the build quality. Also at a lot of price points its Farangs selling to Farangs, so small pool of prospective buyers.

Sellers in CM usually NEED to sell....buyers can sit back and wait it out for looooong times. Eventually a property comes up that the price reduces to become attractive. CM is a waiting time for sellers and a waiting time for buyers....but I really do think buyers win in the end. People can talk about prices going up but when you look at individual properties for sale the prices all eventually go down much as you have discounted yourself.

[Sparkles]

I have no idea if the present situation in CM can be described as a "bubble" I will leave that for the TV experts.

What I will say, and seen with my own eyes ,the number of houses for rent /sale in our village and others has increased over the 5 years we have been here.

The number of previously occupied shop house around town,and now with the shutters down, has multiplied quite dramatically.

Several shop houses in construction mode have been put on hold and stay half finished.

So a classic oversupply situation in an uncertain economy.

Yes its a buyers market but you would need a crystal ball to know where its going to end.If you are expecting capital gain I would put that thought on hold and if you have just arrived in CM rent before you buy.

[chiang mai]

We found a house in Home In Park that I wanted to buy and live in, it suited me. The property had been on the market for 18 months and was priced at the same price as most other houses. Despite it's obvious but rectifiable defects, our (7% discounted) offer was accepted, the mechanics of the ensuing process saw the deal collapse for bizarre reasons. When we tried to reignite the deal, the farang owners baulked at our previous offer and increased the price beyond the original asking price, of course we walked away.

Some of the behavior and thinking out there is very very odd.

[Oscar2]

Are we going to count the Indians as people?

Absolutely despicable post, although unfortunately typical of this poster's pathetic contributions to this forum over the past several months.

How vile sentiments such as this are allowed to stand unchallenged in a public forum frequented by purportedly civilized folks is frankly beyond me.

he's a racist. doesn't like blacks, Jews, Indians, Africans, Mexicans....and not ashamed of posting a KKK video.

[Oscar2]

As usual,the replies to the OP have gone way off topic and discussions of the condo market have over taken the housing market situation in the OP.

To return to the housing market situation and it's effects on prices is a depressing subject to me as a seller. So much inventory of 2nd hand houses and not enough real buyers. Lots of lookers that just want a free ride from the hungry agents and a chance to pry into other peoples lives with no intention of buying.

I think that would be normal in a situation like we have at present......... The lowest of the low rainy season during a politically unstable period which may [or may not] pass, but I would definitely be reluctant to bring my $$ or whatever currency into this uncertain atmosphere and it seems that a lot of us are bailing out for whatever reasons.

The smart ones rent and will wait until the dust settles, but this bubble has got to burst at some point.

Being a potential condo buyer in near future I am reading these posts with great interest and the statement "... a lot of us are bailing out ..." is quite startling. Where do you get this from ... is it based on fact or heresay?

just take a look at how many second-hand condominiums there are for sale. many people dump them for less than they paid for them just to raise some cash and move on. in the future many potential buyers won't qualify for a visa under the new rules.

[Oscar2]

Quite obviously CM real estate is a bubble. Why would those who have already invested (via their wives or other means) proclaim otherwise? If they did not feel it was a bubble, they would keep silent and snatch up all these good values for themselves. No, they want to create demand to drive up the price of their assets.

Perhaps they want to unload now, before strict enforcement of ownership laws starts to take place. I know I would.

+1

[evenstevens]

Might be a bit harsh Evenstevens. CM is littered with Farang's selling who want what they paid several years ago at the exchange rate they had several years ago, or have customized a house to such an extent that its pool of prospective buyers is substantially reduced (if I was going to pay that sort of dollar I might as well build MY own dream house), or worse still sellers who value a house on what they need to re-establish themselves in their home country.

Its not unusual to see places on the market for years (deteriorating) and the smarter ones if you can call them that reducing the original asking price by a third or more.

New houses are relatively cheap here so top dollar for a "used" house is hard to maintain especially when you have no knowledge of the build quality. Also at a lot of price points its Farangs selling to Farangs, so small pool of prospective buyers.

Sellers in CM usually NEED to sell....buyers can sit back and wait it out for looooong times. Eventually a property comes up that the price reduces to become attractive. CM is a waiting time for sellers and a waiting time for buyers....but I really do think buyers win in the end. People can talk about prices going up but when you look at individual properties for sale the prices all eventually go down much as you have discounted yourself.

no, not all harsh mambo, agree with u

my picture is, we bought our land 9 yrs ago

built our abode , moved in 7 yrs ago

so we are not in your framework ^^^ or the other poster whats so ever, in fact a million miles away

mambo,we are completely in control of our destiny,a paramount of importance here. which a load of farungs do not have, due to lack of dilegience , and commonsense , or bad luck for that matter

due to other avenues closing up, or being slow, the 18 months on the market has been a stop/.start journey,and as i previously posted i have enjoyed the ride

think we deserve a small nett profit(other then not paying rent) for a 9 yrs investment and i do know the present market in our neck of the woods, and with a jiggle here and there

we will get the market price on offer, which we hope will be in the neighbourhood of our bottom price,

without sounding very cynic,been casting the net for 18 months, so really i am the only one who knows the real deal, fullstop

a very nice evening to all

Edited August 13, 2014 by evenstevens

[JDGRUEN]

It seems I live in a different world than so many in Thailand and the CM area... I cannot imagine why anyone would travel half way around the world to a lovely tropical country and live in low rise / mid rise / high rise condo in a fast growing and increasingly urbanized area... Simply amazing ... Never the less... the real culprit over the past two- three years has been the political turmoil with abundant violence, followed by military take over, and now we have a systematic crackdown on foreigners working and or just living in Thailand (for reasons justified or not).

In my estimation the whole concept of over built - over hyped condo and other housing types in CM and elsewhere in Thailand is on very shaky ground. The economics of over building in the presence of happenings that discourage immigration of those with disposable income done on a large scale portends a really bad future outcome (IMO). Maybe the Chinese will save the day - but I really doubt it.

And this discussion says little to nothing about the overbuilt resort, hotel, guest house, bungalow, etc, rental market in CM and elsewhere that will end up competing with empty condos. Which only adds to the prognosis of a bad outcome... It is the law of supply and demand governed heavily by available disposable income of available customers ... which are factors greatly ignored...

'I cannot imagine why anyone would travel half way around the world to a lovely tropical country and live in low rise / mid rise / high rise condo in a fast growing and increasingly urbanized area... Simply amazing ..'

I am amazed that you are amazed by the many of us preferring condo life.

I have done (and had in spades) the big family home thing for years and now I am older, have no appetite for the maintenance and upkeep that goes with it.

I like to be near the city for great choice of eating, drinking, sport, movies,malls etc etc.

I like to live high because the air is cleaner, the views are better, there is usually some light breeze, even when airless below-and it is quiet- no barking dogs.. A terrace is a must for me and I love the view over the trees, and river to the mountains beyond. I even like to sit on the terrace at night with a glass of something and watch, but hot hear, the distant planes come and go to the airport.

And it is so convenient. Engineers on site if anything needs doing- which is rare. No garden or land to maintain which bores me now- I am happy to watch others do it for me.

Each to their own but I find it harder to understand why anyone wants to live in a house out of town. My older brother lived 25km out of town in Scotland on a nice small farm and, when I was there, he had to go into town for a tap washer. Got the wrong one so went again. 100km for a tap washer. No thanks.

Guess I am a city boy. I have tried the country and know which works best for me.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with city life... and conversely I do not really want to live in Ban Nok... But I do like smaller places like Nong Khai and down south - Ao Nang... many conveniences just a few kilometers away ... and lots of mom and pop places in between ... I guess my dislike is I have no relish for neighbors practically on top of me or beside me a few meters away ... Being from Texas I want some ELBOW room .. I don't need what I had in Texas - several acres (translate as you may)... But only this week in my quite luxurious resort in Ao Nang - I had to listen to the temporary resident Russian screaming into his phone all day as he paced around the pool... I wish to find that just right comfy place - not too near - and not too far -- without neighbors 5 meters out my bedroom window... But to each his own ... live and let live...

[AnotherOneAmerican]

we will get the market price on offer, which we hope will be in the neighbourhood of our bottom price,

without sounding very cynic,been casting the net for 18 months, so really i am the only one who knows the real deal, fullstop

a very nice evening to all

You're the only one knows the real deal, but that hasn't got you any buyers.

Edited August 13, 2014 by AnotherOneAmerican

[evenstevens]

we will get the market price on offer, which we hope will be in the neighbourhood of our bottom price,

without sounding very cynic,been casting the net for 18 months, so really i am the only one who knows the real deal, fullstop

a very nice evening to all

You're the only one knows the real deal, but that hasn't got you any buyers.

it would be ever so nice to,pick a fight with someone else

[beau thai]

As usual,the replies to the OP have gone way off topic and discussions of the condo market have over taken the housing market situation in the OP.

To return to the housing market situation and it's effects on prices is a depressing subject to me as a seller. So much inventory of 2nd hand houses and not enough real buyers. Lots of lookers that just want a free ride from the hungry agents and a chance to pry into other peoples lives with no intention of buying.

I think that would be normal in a situation like we have at present......... The lowest of the low rainy season during a politically unstable period which may [or may not] pass, but I would definitely be reluctant to bring my $$ or whatever currency into this uncertain atmosphere and it seems that a lot of us are bailing out for whatever reasons.

The smart ones rent and will wait until the dust settles, but this bubble has got to burst at some point.

Being a potential condo buyer in near future I am reading these posts with great interest and the statement "... a lot of us are bailing out ..." is quite startling. Where do you get this from ... is it based on fact or heresay?

just take a look at how many second-hand condominiums there are for sale. many people dump them for less than they paid for them just to raise some cash and move on. in the future many potential buyers won't qualify for a visa under the new rules.

Not sure if you are actually actively looking to buy, or just observing the market but my experience is that it is very very hard to find a good deal when you want one..

Plenty of apparently attractive deals on places that have good reasons why they dont command more, but to actually find something liveable-in with no drawbacks at what seems like a sensible price is like the proverbial needle in the haystack.

So no, I dont think there is a bubble-yet. If there was it would be easier to find people desperate to sell and it just aint.

But if you are only watching the market it looks like loads of stuff available and loads more being built- and nearly all over-priced in my terms.

[landtrout]

Are we going to count the Indians as people?

Absolutely despicable post, although unfortunately typical of this poster's pathetic contributions to this forum over the past several months.

How vile sentiments such as this are allowed to stand unchallenged in a public forum frequented by purportedly civilized folks is frankly beyond me.

he's a racist. doesn't like blacks, Jews, Indians, Africans, Mexicans....and not ashamed of posting a KKK video.

You forgot the French.

And the South Floridian Latinos.

And the Chinese.

And the "circus pants" backpackers.

And the victims of poverty, regardless of race or nationality.

And the gays (although I've got a theory about that one...).

And Angelina Jolie, apparently!

[iancnx]

As usual,the replies to the OP have gone way off topic and discussions of the condo market have over taken the housing market situation in the OP.

To return to the housing market situation and it's effects on prices is a depressing subject to me as a seller. So much inventory of 2nd hand houses and not enough real buyers. Lots of lookers that just want a free ride from the hungry agents and a chance to pry into other peoples lives with no intention of buying.

I think that would be normal in a situation like we have at present......... The lowest of the low rainy season during a politically unstable period which may [or may not] pass, but I would definitely be reluctant to bring my $$ or whatever currency into this uncertain atmosphere and it seems that a lot of us are bailing out for whatever reasons.

The smart ones rent and will wait until the dust settles, but this bubble has got to burst at some point.

Being a potential condo buyer in near future I am reading these posts with great interest and the statement "... a lot of us are bailing out ..." is quite startling. Where do you get this from ... is it based on fact or heresay?

just take a look at how many second-hand condominiums there are for sale. many people dump them for less than they paid for them just to raise some cash and move on. in the future many potential buyers won't qualify for a visa under the new rules.

Not sure if you are actually actively looking to buy, or just observing the market but my experience is that it is very very hard to find a good deal when you want one..

Plenty of apparently attractive deals on places that have good reasons why they dont command more, but to actually find something liveable-in with no drawbacks at what seems like a sensible price is like the proverbial needle in the haystack.

So no, I dont think there is a bubble-yet. If there was it would be easier to find people desperate to sell and it just aint.

But if you are only watching the market it looks like loads of stuff available and loads more being built- and nearly all over-priced in my terms.

My research over the past couple of weeks supports Beau's view. Condo rental prices have come down, but net yields are still substantially healthier than most bank rates offshore. I think there is an over supply of cheaper units thrown up in the less attractive areas around the city. Once the 'newness' of these buildings have worn off I suspect the owners will be lucky to rent them for a reasonable return. These buildings will be poorly managed and values will plummet in the fullness of time. I understand there are thousands of these smaller units/studios across the city. Those owning will need to exit before the realisation of the masses sets in.

I believe quality Condo's in desirable areas that have been purchased in the past couple of years between 40-50 baht per sqm will be capital gain winners, especially if the anticipated new BTS (or whatever it might be) progresses to the planning stage.

My opinion of the inflated prices being asked in some Nimmenheiman projects is that the infrastructure to support those projects is simply not there. Gridlock! High net worth individuals will want to be able to drive their super and luxury imports around town. Nimmenheiman ain't the place. The speculative buyers may well have to wait for that BTS which might go some way to free up the gridlock.

[evenstevens]

The smart ones rent and will wait until the dust settles, but this bubble has got to burst at some point.

my outlook from a street smart layman is

buying for residential purposes,appears a reasonable option. long term that is,and not forgetting entering in at the right price

anyone who has tumbled into the quarry, that c/mai is a safe rental investment opportunity etc etc long term is in disneyland

all over my long years residing in c/mai, renting has always been very affordable in all areas of c/mai

and renting is the safest bet in all depts,from my experiences and i have done the full monty

this condo/,housing explosion will only make renting more affordable whether its in the low or high bracket, supply and demand rule will surely apply here

for mine, the present renters or future ones ...will be laughing all the way to the bank,,could nt lay enuff money on it, and the rental investors well...who knows???

a very nice day to all

nice post , iancnx..

a week ago i posted the above

along the lines as your comments

paying up to 10 mil ( approx120 sq metres units ) in so called hot spot locations such as nimmehedin, hoping to secure the 50 to 60 k monthly rent (they wish) is not poss,due to a multitude of valid reasons

for mine they are a deadman walking rental investor

Edited August 18, 2014 by evenstevens