Thai govt to revise down export target

[webfact]

Govt to revise down export target
PETCHANET PRATRUANGKRAI
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- AFTER MANY agencies issued low export expansion forecasts, the Commerce Ministry was finally convinced that it needs to downgrade its target for this year's shipments soon. "The target of 3.5 per cent will be revised down, as many negative factors have disturbed trading expansion.

"The ministry will also draw up plans to promote more exports next year," permanent secretary Chutima Bunyapraphasara said yesterday.

The new export goal will be set by Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikalya, who, after his recent appointment by the junta, is scheduled to report to the ministry soon.

The ministry will soon call a meeting of Thai trade officials posted overseas and export-related companies to evaluate the trading situation worldwide after the global economy seemed to show signs of slowing growth and caused difficulty in boosting exports.

A study by the International Trade Promotion Department has found that Thailand has a high possibility of increasing exports by only 1.6-1.9 per cent this year because of falling prices of farm crops and weak demand in many key markets.

Shipments in the first seven months shrank 0.42 per cent year on year.

Regarding the Ebola outbreak in Africa, Chutima said the ministry had not yet received reports about any problems supplying countries in that region.

However, the ministry will closely monitor the situation and may need to delay its plan to go on a roadshow to that continent.

Urgent plans

The ministry will propose three urgent plans to its new minister.

The first is to manage the cost of living for consumers, while not intervening in the market mechanism.

Boonyarit Kalayanamit, spokesman for the ministry, said the ministry would also proceed with plans to drive business expansion after the Asean Economic Community comes on stream.

It will provide measures to facilitate Thai businesses, specially small and medium-sized enterprises, in becoming international traders.

It will also ensure that the country is competitive after Asean integration.

The ministry will develop its organisational structure to be more flexible in a bid to reduce duplication of work and enhance efficiency.

Other plans include continuing to negotiate free-trade agreements, managing farm crops, including rice, stabilising prices and improving transparency by adopting new technology for the ministry's services.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Govt-to-revise-down-export-target-30242484.html


-- The Nation 2014-09-04

[siampolee]

A study by the International Trade Promotion Department has found that Thailand has a high possibility of increasing exports by only 1.6-1.9 per cent this year because of falling prices of farm crops and weak demand in many key markets.

And there is the answer, it is not only an internal problem regarding low farm product prices the external market is not as demanding as it was and also in many cases Thai manufacturers are losing their competitive edge to other countries

Lower wage costs and a more innovative approach to matters by others is weakening Thailand's international trading position along with perhaps an artificially strong baht as well. However I am of the opinion this is a cyclical matter and there will be an upturn in the foreseeable future.

[Roadman]

After the Pheu Thai "white lies and appeasement numbers" all this current forecast truthfullness is refreshing. Certainly puts all in the open for sound economic planning.

[Pib]

BANGKOK: -- AFTER MANY agencies issued low export expansion forecasts, the Commerce Ministry was finally convinced that it needs to downgrade its target for this year's shipments soon. "The target of 3.5 per cent will be revised down, as many negative factors have disturbed trading expansion.

"The ministry will also draw up plans to promote more exports next year," permanent secretary Chutima Bunyapraphasara said yesterday.

Having a "target" implies something you are trying to hit, trying to reach, etc. Not sure the govt really has a target; it's more like they are just trying to ensure their export guesstimate comes close to the actual number at the end of the year. Kinda like watching a leaf fall/float down from a tree and guessing the spot it's going to land.

Draw up a plans to promote more exports for "next year?" Supposedly they are doing that all the time...obviously current plans are not working well...or at least this year they don't seem to be working well. Why should we think they will work any better next year...but hopefully they will.

[weegee]

Also they should look at Import costs....Thats a ridiculous add on cost to anyone wishing to import goods to create jobs and exports...

This free trade agreement we hear about is non existent here. Import something and expect to pay around 37% on top of the cost of the item, by the time you get it, if you do eventually get it that is......Impossible to compete when it's more expensive to build here than the rest of the world... just saying.

[fab4]

After the Pheu Thai "white lies and appeasement numbers" all this current forecast truthfullness is refreshing. Certainly puts all in the open for sound economic planning.

Never miss an opportunity to have a dig the PTP, Roadman, eh, even if it is irrelevant?

Sound economic planning? Well only a month ago this sound economic planning had resulted in a different outlook.

Commerce now confident of 3.5% export growth this year

in Business |

July 25, 2014

Ms Chutima Boonyaprapatsorn, the permanent-secretary for Commerce, voiced confidence of the 3.5% target growth for exports this year after June’s exports rise 7.2% higher against the same month last year.

The satisfactory growth in June came from two factors, namely the economic recovery of Thailand’s trading partners, particularly United States and European Union, and global economy, and the economic stimulant packages launched by the ministry under the guidance of the National Council for Peace and Order, she said.

She said she strongly believed that export value growth in June would help to bolster overall growth for the whole year to 3.5% for certain.

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/commerce-now-confident-3-5-export-growth-year/

What's next months "sound economic planning" forecast going to be?

[Pib]

Also they should look at Import costs....Thats a ridiculous add on cost to anyone wishing to import goods to create jobs and exports...

This free trade agreement we hear about is non existent here. Import something and expect to pay around 37% on top of the cost of the item, by the time you get it, if you do eventually get it that is......Impossible to compete when it's more expensive to build here than the rest of the world... just saying.

The majority of Thailand tax revenue is based on import, excise, and VAT taxes versus personal income tax since so few in Thailand file personal taxes plus it makes tax compliance much easier for the govt. So, until the Thai tax revenue system possibly shifts from being a consumer tax based system don't expect much if any reduction in the price of many items.

[h90]

A study by the International Trade Promotion Department has found that Thailand has a high possibility of increasing exports by only 1.6-1.9 per cent this year because of falling prices of farm crops and weak demand in many key markets.

And there is the answer, it is not only an internal problem regarding low farm product prices the external market is not as demanding as it was and also in many cases Thai manufacturers are losing their competitive edge to other countries

Lower wage costs and a more innovative approach to matters by others is weakening Thailand's international trading position along with perhaps an artificially strong baht as well. However I am of the opinion this is a cyclical matter and there will be an upturn in the foreseeable future.

Now should be prime time to export beef and chicken to Russia....Beef OK, Thailand didn't develop this industry but chicken.......

[GAZZPA]

Yet more waffle and no action.. Also, no mention of the loss of GSP and FTA in January, surely this is a huge consideration for Thai exports considering that Thai products are suddenly much more expensive to buy. No answers as always though, just a list of the bloody obvious:

- manage the cost of living for consumers - HOW?

- drive business expansion - HOW?

- facilitate Thai businesses into becoming International traders. - HOW?

- Esnure country is competitive after Asean - HOW?

- structure to be more flexible - HOW?

- Free trade meetings, managing farm crops, stabilising prices, improving transparency, adopting new technology,- BLAH, BLAH, BLAH..

Its just a list of nice sounding things not too cleverly disguised as action points. Of course there are no action points listed because there are no action points, and no mention at all of how or when these things will be achieved. Its just poor quality "management speak" at best.

I work for a Thai manufacture and we have been waiting for over a year to understand the governments plans on tackling the loss of GSP,, it has never materialised.

[Baerboxer]

After the Pheu Thai "white lies and appeasement numbers" all this current forecast truthfullness is refreshing. Certainly puts all in the open for sound economic planning.

Never miss an opportunity to have a dig the PTP, Roadman, eh, even if it is irrelevant?

Sound economic planning? Well only a month ago this sound economic planning had resulted in a different outlook.

Commerce now confident of 3.5% export growth this year

in Business |

July 25, 2014

Ms Chutima Boonyaprapatsorn, the permanent-secretary for Commerce, voiced confidence of the 3.5% target growth for exports this year after June’s exports rise 7.2% higher against the same month last year.

The satisfactory growth in June came from two factors, namely the economic recovery of Thailand’s trading partners, particularly United States and European Union, and global economy, and the economic stimulant packages launched by the ministry under the guidance of the National Council for Peace and Order, she said.

She said she strongly believed that export value growth in June would help to bolster overall growth for the whole year to 3.5% for certain.

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/commerce-now-confident-3-5-export-growth-year/

What's next months "sound economic planning" forecast going to be?

Oh heaven forbid. (Figure of speech).

Someone daring to make a comment about the woefully inept PTP administration whose Finance Minister not only lied but states it was acceptable to do so. Who knows what their performance really was as they told so many lies and presented so many conflicting numbers whenever it suited.

Good job Fab4 and the other Shin Fan Club are here to try and defend their heroes.

Irrelevant - comparing the refreshingly honesty of the new regime with the lying of the former one seems a relevant thing to say, on a discussion forum. Certainly makes a change from all the "but the Dems, Abhisit,Suthep, the monk" irrelevant diversions that pepper many previous discussions when trying to divert them.

[Cake Monster]

Only last week, K. Prasarn of the BOT, stated that Thailands growth over the next 4 quarters, was to be 5 % per quarter.

With the Export projection now being reduced, the much lower prices for Ag products like Rice, Sugar, and Rubber Etc, how on earth can Prasarns projection be any where near correct, when the consideration of a very weak tourist market and other factors are taken in.

Seems to me like a load of headless chicken making some noise for position justification.

[fab4]

Oh heaven forbid. (Figure of speech).

Someone daring to make a comment about the woefully inept PTP administration whose Finance Minister not only lied but states it was acceptable to do so. Who knows what their performance really was as they told so many lies and presented so many conflicting numbers whenever it suited.

Good job Fab4 and the other Shin Fan Club are here to try and defend their heroes.

Irrelevant - comparing the refreshingly honesty of the new regime with the lying of the former one seems a relevant thing to say, on a discussion forum. Certainly makes a change from all the "but the Dems, Abhisit,Suthep, the monk" irrelevant diversions that pepper many previous discussions when trying to divert them.

Any comments on the actual thread baerboxer or just more ad hominem attacks?

As for as the "white lie" of Kittirat Na-Ranong perhaps you would do well to listen to Voranai Vanajika, national columnist

“In the annals of lying politicians, Mr Kittirat might just be the first in history to basically say: I knew I was lying from the beginning, and you know what, I have the right to lie – in fact, it’s for your own good that I told the lie …”

or the Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries;

Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong’s admission he told "white lies" about the country's exports growth will not affect confidence of the private sector, the chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, Payungsak Chartsuthipol, said on Tuesday.

Actually manufacturers used a whole range of data in projecting their business growth potential. Moreover, they believed Mr Kittiratt had a good intention in giving out the high export growth figure, hoping to encourage all sectors to work at their best to fulfill the target, he said.

The finance minister’s comment was not worrying and it would not tarnish the business sector’s confidence

Either that or comment truthfully on the statement from July 25th which I have quoted in my previous post above and which was plainly a lie. Or are some lies better than others, depending on who utters them?

[theoldgit]

One post in breach of Forum Rules removed.

Use of our forums

English is the only acceptable language anywhere on ThaiVisa including Classifieds, except within the Thai language forum, where of course using Thai is allowed.

[laurentbkk]

Want to export more ? lower the Thai bath and export will rise ...

[Thai at Heart]

Zero mention of improving competitiveness.

[Suradit69]

Only last week, K. Prasarn of the BOT, stated that Thailands growth over the next 4 quarters, was to be 5 % per quarter.

With the Export projection now being reduced, the much lower prices for Ag products like Rice, Sugar, and Rubber Etc, how on earth can Prasarns projection be any where near correct, when the consideration of a very weak tourist market and other factors are taken in.

Seems to me like a load of headless chicken making some noise for position justification.

Maybe they need to follow the UK's creative government accounting methods to burnish GDP and other economic measurements.

UK To Include $17 Billion Prostitution Industry And Illegal Drugs Trade In GDP Estimates

For the first time, Britain will consider illegal enterprises, including drugs and prostitution, in its economic measurements, the Office of National Statistics announced Friday.

The statistics office estimates that paying for illegal drugs and sex adds about £10 billion, or $16.7 billion, a year to the UK economy. That’s about 0.7 percent of Britain’s GDP.

Officials say approximately £5.3 billion is attributed to prostitution and £4.4 billion pertains to the import, manufacture and consumption of illegal drugs like heroin and crack cocaine.

http://www.ibtimes.com/uk-include-17-billion-prostitution-industry-illegal-drugs-trade-gdp-estimates-1592614

[Suradit69]

Want to export more ? lower the Thai bath and export will rise ...

The only way they can manipulate the baht exchange rate for extended periods is by removing the rates from market pricing and putting in mandatory rates pegged to one of the major currencies ... and that is impracticable, unworkable and unrealistic. If tsunamis, coups and flooding can't hold the baht down for long, nothing will.

And if easily lowered exchange rates magically improved exports without collateral and unintended damage, every country would try it, Japan would be first to jump at this simplistic method.

[Thai at Heart]

Only last week, K. Prasarn of the BOT, stated that Thailands growth over the next 4 quarters, was to be 5 % per quarter.

With the Export projection now being reduced, the much lower prices for Ag products like Rice, Sugar, and Rubber Etc, how on earth can Prasarns projection be any where near correct, when the consideration of a very weak tourist market and other factors are taken in.

Seems to me like a load of headless chicken making some noise for position justification.

Maybe they need to follow the UK's creative government accounting methods to burnish GDP and other economic measurements.

UK To Include $17 Billion Prostitution Industry And Illegal Drugs Trade In GDP Estimates

For the first time, Britain will consider illegal enterprises, including drugs and prostitution, in its economic measurements, the Office of National Statistics announced Friday.

The statistics office estimates that paying for illegal drugs and sex adds about £10 billion, or $16.7 billion, a year to the UK economy. Thats about 0.7 percent of Britains GDP.

Officials say approximately £5.3 billion is attributed to prostitution and £4.4 billion pertains to the import, manufacture and consumption of illegal drugs like heroin and crack cocaine.

http://www.ibtimes.com/uk-include-17-billion-prostitution-industry-illegal-drugs-trade-gdp-estimates-1592614

Business is business. If you don't measure it,also, you can't tax it.

[Thai at Heart]

Want to export more ? lower the Thai bath and export will rise ...

Please speak to Mr. Obama and ask him to stop printing money, and Mr. Cameron and the ECB to raise interest rates.

[rickirs]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Only last week, K. Prasarn of the BOT, stated that Thailands growth over the next 4 quarters, was to be 5 % per quarter.

With the Export projection now being reduced, the much lower prices for Ag products like Rice, Sugar, and Rubber Etc, how on earth can Prasarns projection be any where near correct, when the consideration of a very weak tourist market and other factors are taken in.

Seems to me like a load of headless chicken making some noise for position justification.

Another flashback:

BANGKOK, 15 July 2014 (NNT) - The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has predicted that the economy will grow 4.2 percent during the second half of this year.

The committee believes that the Thai economy has passed its lowest point, thanks to the resolved political conflict and certain policies of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) that are intended to stimulate the economy, which would help boost consumer and investor confidence.

Following these reasons, the JSCCIB remains confident that the Thai economy will grow 4.2 percent and expand by 2 percent for the remainder of this year. In 2015, the committee forecasts that the Thai economy will grow 3.5 to 4.5 percent. Exports for this year on the other hand, can reach up to 3 to 5 percent.

The JSCCIB consists of members from the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC), and the Thai Bankers Association (TBA).


-- NNT 2014-07-15

[rickirs]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/03/france-halts-delivery-warship-russia

[Suradit69]

Only last week, K. Prasarn of the BOT, stated that Thailands growth over the next 4 quarters, was to be 5 % per quarter.

With the Export projection now being reduced, the much lower prices for Ag products like Rice, Sugar, and Rubber Etc, how on earth can Prasarns projection be any where near correct, when the consideration of a very weak tourist market and other factors are taken in.

Seems to me like a load of headless chicken making some noise for position justification.

Maybe they need to follow the UK's creative government accounting methods to burnish GDP and other economic measurements.

UK To Include $17 Billion Prostitution Industry And Illegal Drugs Trade In GDP Estimates

For the first time, Britain will consider illegal enterprises, including drugs and prostitution, in its economic measurements, the Office of National Statistics announced Friday.

The statistics office estimates that paying for illegal drugs and sex adds about £10 billion, or $16.7 billion, a year to the UK economy. Thats about 0.7 percent of Britains GDP.

Officials say approximately £5.3 billion is attributed to prostitution and £4.4 billion pertains to the import, manufacture and consumption of illegal drugs like heroin and crack cocaine.

http://www.ibtimes.com/uk-include-17-billion-prostitution-industry-illegal-drugs-trade-gdp-estimates-1592614

Business is business. If you don't measure it,also, you can't tax it.

Apparently that thought never occurred to anyone in the UK until this year. Does the UK manage to tax :"the import, manufacture and consumption of illegal drugs like heroin and crack cocaine.?"

Edited September 4, 2014 by Suradit69

[aTomsLife]

The weak demand the article refers to is no doubt linked to prices. Thailand should be working to devalue the baht. Not only would agricultural exports rise, it would help ensure wage competitiveness in their manufacturing sectors as well.

There is often talk of Thailand escaping the middle-income trap and transitioning to a more service based economy. But given the state of the education system here, I don't think that's likely at all. The second coming of Singapore, it is not. Thailand should stick to what it's good at --agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, etc. -- but in order to do that long term, the baht needs to fall in value.