Is This A Sign Of The Times?

[Pattayatony]

I was talking to a Thai business man the other day and he was telling me that his sales are down 40% on last year. The business he owns is a pharmacy and a wholesale outlet for tabacco and alcohol. Then I spoke to a guy who ownes a computer shop and he was telling me his business is down 70% over the last 3 years. Owner of the German Restruant I go to tells me this is the quietest he has seen business in over 12 years. All of these business are located in Pattaya. So is this a sign of things to come?

[JimsKnight]

I was talking to a Thai business man the other day and he was telling me that his sales are down 40% on last year. The business he owns is a pharmacy and a wholesale outlet for tabacco and alcohol. Then I spoke to a guy who ownes a computer shop and he was telling me his business is down 70% over the last 3 years. Owner of the German Restruant I go to tells me this is the quietest he has seen business in over 12 years. All of these business are located in Pattaya. So is this a sign of things to come?

I've often been saying that theres a 'migrationary' trend to the back-packers, travellers, even roughing-it tourists. Once a place becomes too globalised and developed/expensive, the'll just find the next place thats 'like thailand once was' and thailand may see tourism decline. Package tours to Thailand are invisible now compared with a few years ago (at least from what I can see) and the visa requirements are not exactly what you'd call liberal.

Yet its quite hard to beat thailand for the girly scene, nightlife and freedom to travel and just hang out. Phillipines has an edge but the food is reputably worse than thailands reportoire of spice, rice and tit-bits. The distance is even further out. And the locals are 'troublesome' according to other reports. The expat scene is also very sparse.

[samran]

dunno what it means, unless this is a nationwide trend.

Fact of the matter is though, that the industry is becoming more competitive, and people are seeking out better value resort cities, at the high and lower end.

I must admit I am probably TV's no 1 Pattaya disliker...but as a cheap destination, if it is not managing to attract the new round of first time toursist looking for a cheap holiday, your chinese, indians, veitnamese of their first big 'OS' trip, then as a city, the authorities aren't doing the best job in maintaining the city's profile as a first time destination.

[Farma]

Since the petrol prices started to rise about a year ago there’s been comments among shopkeepers where I live upcountry about the noticeable drop in sales. The people don’t have the spending money for little extras.

These comments have come from a range of shopkeepers selling plumbing/building supplies, computers, electrical items and medicines.

I don’t think this trend is restricted to Pattaya alone.

[taxin]

I was talking to a Thai business man the other day and he was telling me that his sales are down 40% on last year. The business he owns is a pharmacy and a wholesale outlet for tabacco and alcohol. Then I spoke to a guy who ownes a computer shop and he was telling me his business is down 70% over the last 3 years. Owner of the German Restruant I go to tells me this is the quietest he has seen business in over 12 years. All of these business are located in Pattaya. So is this a sign of things to come?

Have to say I wasnt surprised to see that the mentioned business's were based in Pattaya, was kind of waiting for that bit at the end !

Lets be honest, there is simply too many business's in Pattaya in comparison to the dollars being spent. Once you take away the sex industry Pattaya ranks last amongst all the tourist places in Thailand for dollars spent per visitor. This is a fact !

This can only be great news for the Pattaya holiday maker as it becomes more & more a buyers market. This is why Pattaya is and always will be the cheapest place to go compared to Phuket or Samui. This will also be the downfall for Pattaya's Real Estate in the next few years, but thats another story....

Pattaya would be the last place I would start a business but many people do, why ? Because a busy place always gets mistaken as a productive place. Biggest mistake you can ever make !

[backflip]

I'd expect the same response from any Thai businessperson. Sadsacks, all.

[The Skipper]

I was talking to a Thai business man the other day and he was telling me that his sales are down 40% on last year. The business he owns is a pharmacy and a wholesale outlet for tabacco and alcohol. Then I spoke to a guy who ownes a computer shop and he was telling me his business is down 70% over the last 3 years. Owner of the German Restruant I go to tells me this is the quietest he has seen business in over 12 years. All of these business are located in Pattaya. So is this a sign of things to come?

Could have somthing to do with the fact that the place is a dump?

Wall to wall crass development, thousand and thousands of Bar Beers and broken down construction sites.

The worst public transit system controlled by gangs, streets are all torn up, traffic, polluted beach, rude service, and thousands of low calibre people looking for the cheapest place to get drunk.

30,000 thousand past their prime hookers and their 30,000 scamming, poor up-country boyfriends hanging out all over the place.

Getting worse all the time.

[thaiknot]

I was talking to a Thai business man the other day and he was telling me that his sales are down 40% on last year. The business he owns is a pharmacy and a wholesale outlet for tabacco and alcohol. Then I spoke to a guy who ownes a computer shop and he was telling me his business is down 70% over the last 3 years. Owner of the German Restruant I go to tells me this is the quietest he has seen business in over 12 years. All of these business are located in Pattaya. So is this a sign of things to come?

Could have somthing to do with the fact that the place is a dump?

Wall to wall crass development, thousand and thousands of Bar Beers and broken down construction sites.

The worst public transit system controlled by gangs, streets are all torn up, traffic, polluted beach, rude service, and thousands of low calibre people looking for the cheapest place to get drunk.

30,000 thousand past their prime hookers and their 30,000 scamming, poor up-country boyfriends hanging out all over the place.

Getting worse all the time.

Whoa!Sounds like my kinda place!

But seriously,the Pattaya Visitors Bureau could use you to write their promotional material.

[taxin]

I was talking to a Thai business man the other day and he was telling me that his sales are down 40% on last year. The business he owns is a pharmacy and a wholesale outlet for tabacco and alcohol. Then I spoke to a guy who ownes a computer shop and he was telling me his business is down 70% over the last 3 years. Owner of the German Restruant I go to tells me this is the quietest he has seen business in over 12 years. All of these business are located in Pattaya. So is this a sign of things to come?

Could have somthing to do with the fact that the place is a dump?

Wall to wall crass development, thousand and thousands of Bar Beers and broken down construction sites.

The worst public transit system controlled by gangs, streets are all torn up, traffic, polluted beach, rude service, and thousands of low calibre people looking for the cheapest place to get drunk.

30,000 thousand past their prime hookers and their 30,000 scamming, poor up-country boyfriends hanging out all over the place.

Getting worse all the time.

So true, the main reason for me moving away from Pattaya was due to the low life Thais that the place attracted, not so much the low end tourist or long term expat. Cheap places attract cheap people, the 50 plus perverts complaining about the price of beer was difficult but bearable, on the other hand the Thais was another thing !

If half the tourists knew what was going on behind the scenes they would never go there.

Just bear in mind guys, 60-70% of the Thai hookers are in some form of relationship with a Thai man. He could be in Pattaya or outside of Pattaya, the fit ones will have some form of "protection" or certainly friends with someone who has, this ranges from Mafia type to Police, either way be VERY careful how you tread, you have been warned !

It is only a matter of time before something major happens in Pattaya which will really hit the news, its not a case of "if" but "when" ! And we are not talking about earthquakes and Tsunamis......

[Heng]

I'd have to say business is still pretty good (that is, not up or down; apart from the World Cup spike). One of our businesses is a pawn shop in Pattaya, so that means things aren't that bad. When things are going south, business is booming.

Stay diverse + debt free, save relgiously when times are flush, and you'll probably be all right.

[thaigene2]

Stay diverse + debt free, save relgiously when times are flush, and you'll probably be all right.

Good advice.

As for the drop in the economy, I'll bet it isn't just Pattaya..Thailand is aiming at higher-end tourists. The TAT strategy seems to be aiming at getting at the money of people who 'made it' during the boom times. Also they're aiming at China now.

The backpack crowd and the low-end European/American/Aussie long-term Pattaya types don't seem to be a TAT focus any longer, and indeed Immigration is making it harder for them to stay here on the cheap for anything longer than a few weeks.

[otherstuff1957]

Absolutely right! TAT hasn't entirely abandoned Farang tourists, but the emphasis now is on Asian tourists and shopping, rather than on Europeans and sex.

If they are successful, the overall tourist dollars may go up or down or stay the same, but one thing that will definitely happen is that spending patterns will change.

Remember that the Thai elite will have an entirely different viewpoint when it comes to the Thai economy. If the stores and shopping malls show a slight increase in revenue and a thousand beer bars go bankrupt, the Thai economic elite would probably view things as going well.

The money earned by the 30,000 bar girls mentioned above, goes directly into their pockets and from there to their up-country families and to local merchants. The hi-so's who have invested in shopping complexes really don't get much money out of the kind of tourists who frequent the beer bars of Pattaya. They would be happier with an overall decline in revenue, provided it was distributed differently!

When Farangs enrich poor upcountry girls and their families they inadvertently are turning Thai society upside down. If the farangs are removed from the picture and replaced with package tours of Asian families, tourist income will become much more controllable. Money will flow directly to the upper classes and the lower classes will get back to the factories and rice fields 'where they belong'.

[Heng]

IMO the Asian sex tourist revenue already is X times higher (factory like efficiency with fully laden planes and tour buses) than the European segment. It's just that the establishments that cater to them don't have gyrating Issanites and northerners on poles and open air bar counters. And yes, these poor gals/guys get the funds directly as well.

As for the 'haves' for Thai society, they aren't concerned either way as there is a vicious cycle of the poor buying things they don't need and/or getting them repossessed anyway, so it still ends up in the hands of the 20% (the haves of Thai society).

[steveromagnino]

I'd expect the same response from any Thai businessperson. Sadsacks, all.

You really are a person without any knowledge of Thailand aren't you?!

Sadsack yourself

[thaigene2]

IMO the Asian sex tourist revenue already is X times higher (factory like efficiency with fully laden planes and tour buses) than the European segment. It's just that the establishments that cater to them don't have gyrating Issanites and northerners on poles and open air bar counters. And yes, these poor gals/guys get the funds directly as well.

As for the 'haves' for Thai society, they aren't concerned either way as there is a vicious cycle of the poor buying things they don't need and/or getting them repossessed anyway, so it still ends up in the hands of the 20% (the haves of Thai society).

Right on. Couldn't agree more. Even though mobile phone fees have come down it's still hard to understand why someone with an income of 5 or 6,000 Baht per month would buy a mobile and drop about 1,000 baht per month on constant yacking on the phone. But they do..and guess who's taking their money?

The Consumer Economy is based on the old advertising moto that to keep the consumer economy ticking along you've got to "make them want something today that they didn't have yesterday and won't want tomorrow. And tomorrow we'll start the whole process all over again!" And it's the 20% who are doing just that.

[simcity]

IMO the Asian sex tourist revenue already is X times higher (factory like efficiency with fully laden planes and tour buses) than the European segment. It's just that the establishments that cater to them don't have gyrating Issanites and northerners on poles and open air bar counters. And yes, these poor gals/guys get the funds directly as well.

As for the 'haves' for Thai society, they aren't concerned either way as there is a vicious cycle of the poor buying things they don't need and/or getting them repossessed anyway, so it still ends up in the hands of the 20% (the haves of Thai society).

Right on. Couldn't agree more. Even though mobile phone fees have come down it's still hard to understand why someone with an income of 5 or 6,000 Baht per month would buy a mobile and drop about 1,000 baht per month on constant yacking on the phone. But they do..and guess who's taking their money?

The Consumer Economy is based on the old advertising moto that to keep the consumer economy ticking along you've got to "make them want something today that they didn't have yesterday and won't want tomorrow. And tomorrow we'll start the whole process all over again!" And it's the 20% who are doing just that.

I do not think they will have a bill of 1000 a month for usage , trend is to have two mobiles now with two Sim card and jungle between best rates / time of the day , some company get you free calls for day time , I am not talking about the one link to your land line !

If Thai could ménage business as they organize calls cost , this country will be up and up !

not so good for full paid customers as I am who find a network unworkable at time !

but now my friends call me and do not do the miss call thing !

[Heng]

The Consumer Economy is based on the old advertising moto that to keep the consumer economy ticking along you've got to "make them want something today that they didn't have yesterday and won't want tomorrow. And tomorrow we'll start the whole process all over again!" And it's the 20% who are doing just that.

IMO what the 20% do is simply 'not do' what the 80% are doing, for some just over the course of a few years... for others it's generations. That is, simple mindless consumption. Just because SOME of the 20% are shareholders in the multinationals and medium/large companies doing the collecting and selling, doesn't mean the 20% are 'doing it' to the 80%.

[appleman_thai]

With all the recent bad economic figures and the political turmoil will not help THailand in the near future.

Unfortunately, I envisage that the next few months will bring bad news to THailand and that investment will be diverted elsewhere. When this happens I hope the Thais will realise that foreign investment is really something good that the Thais can benefit from!

On the positive side, it may offer some opportunities for those brave enough!

[lannarebirth]

With all the recent bad economic figures and the political turmoil will not help THailand in the near future.

Unfortunately, I envisage that the next few months will bring bad news to THailand and that investment will be diverted elsewhere. When this happens I hope the Thais will realise that foreign investment is really something good that the Thais can benefit from!

On the positive side, it may offer some opportunities for those brave enough!

I don't understnad, What good is investment that goes away just because things may be temporarily subpar? That's not investment, that's "hot money" trading and it does not lead to a sustainable economy, as the King envisions. It's the economic equivalent of "love you short time".

[appleman_thai]

I am referring to new investment and not existing investment. Sure enough, if you invest in the property market then its better to be in it for the long run.

However, as you consider your investment you dont want to buy at the peak! Therefore, as many people are predicting a downturn in THai economy, real estate, tourism etc over the coming 6 months to a year, all the investment that COULD have been pumped into THailand will go elsewhere.

IMHO, Vietnam is one place that could gain from this.

Also, it does mean that there may be some opportunities for bargains in the next year or so.

[lannarebirth]

I am referring to new investment and not existing investment. Sure enough, if you invest in the property market then its better to be in it for the long run.

However, as you consider your investment you dont want to buy at the peak! Therefore, as many people are predicting a downturn in THai economy, real estate, tourism etc over the coming 6 months to a year, all the investment that COULD have been pumped into THailand will go elsewhere.

IMHO, Vietnam is one place that could gain from this.

Also, it does mean that there may be some opportunities for bargains in the next year or so.

Yes, you're quite right about putting new money to work. I too hope some local bargains present themselves when the current dollar up cycle exhausts itself.

[~G~]

The Consumer Economy is based on the old advertising moto that to keep the consumer economy ticking along you've got to "make them want something today that they didn't have yesterday and won't want tomorrow. And tomorrow we'll start the whole process all over again!" And it's the 20% who are doing just that.

IMO what the 20% do is simply 'not do' what the 80% are doing, for some just over the course of a few years... for others it's generations. That is, simple mindless consumption. Just because SOME of the 20% are shareholders in the multinationals and medium/large companies doing the collecting and selling, doesn't mean the 20% are 'doing it' to the 80%.

Is it 20:80 or 5:95?

[Heng]

The Consumer Economy is based on the old advertising moto that to keep the consumer economy ticking along you've got to "make them want something today that they didn't have yesterday and won't want tomorrow. And tomorrow we'll start the whole process all over again!" And it's the 20% who are doing just that.

IMO what the 20% do is simply 'not do' what the 80% are doing, for some just over the course of a few years... for others it's generations. That is, simple mindless consumption. Just because SOME of the 20% are shareholders in the multinationals and medium/large companies doing the collecting and selling, doesn't mean the 20% are 'doing it' to the 80%.

Is it 20:80 or 5:95?

Whatever the %, the principles are the same.

[rishi]

... and while you're all discussing .... here, in my cosy, little nest ... low season doesn't seem to come this year ... However, don't know if it's to be taken as a sign of the times or just me being better than last year?

[Lacoste]

It is only a matter of time before something major happens in Pattaya which will really hit the news, its not a case of "if" but "when" ! And we are not talking about earthquakes and Tsunamis......

What is it that 'we' are talking about, just so i know?