Flood woes 'need to be resolved' - Thailand

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Flood woes 'need to be resolved'
Erich Parpart
The Nation



Economists say problems need to be addressed and fast-trains discussed

BANGKOK: -- China's imports are expected to pick up slightly in August from July but Thailand should focus on addressing the escalation of flood problems, plus reviving discussions with Beijing on the fast rail programme, and developing value-added products rather than depend on the import rate of major trading partners for export growth, economists said last week.

Thailand should make the most out of its economic potential and geographical advantage by resuming talks with China on the high-speed rail project soon as that would ensure that the country reaps full benefits from China's investment in the region, said Uwe Parpart, executive managing director and strategist at Reorient Group, a boutique investment firm in Hong Kong.

"Thailand should quickly revive discussions with China on the fast rail programme since China wants to build a fast rail from Beijing to Istanbul and Thailand would greatly benefit from such development," he said.

"It's too narrow to just look at a few more grains of rice to be exported, since the country should be making the most out of its strategic economic potential."

The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) is studying the plans for the high-speed railway, which is not part of the Bt2.4 trillion package of infrastructure projects that they approved last month.

China trade surplus may be thin

Steve Wang, research director and chief China economist at Reorient Group, expects that China's foreign trade surplus last month should be thin and that the bright outlook for foreign direct investment in China should contribute to a slight increase in imports last month.

China's imports fell 1.6 per cent in July year on year, following a 5.5-per-cent expansion in June, but Reorient expects the country's imports to rebound slightly last month and finish the year with growth of 5.2 per cent to US$170.5 billion.

Korbsak Phutrakul, executive vice president of Bangkok Bank, said China is in the midst of economic adaptation and policy changes that are aimed at getting rid of their protracted internal problems such as bad debts.

They will be in the process of cleaning up the government and trade balance sheets for the next two years, which means their intended slowdown of economic growth will continue for some time.

China takes 10-12 per cent of Thailand's exports, so an import slowdown there will inevitably affect the export sector here, while Chinese firms are also looking to expand outside their country, which means that market competition from Chinese companies in this region will increase in the coming years.

According to the Bank of Thailand's website, Thai exports to China dropped to $5.84 billion in the second quarter of this year from $6.52 billion in the first quarter and $7.64 billion in the last quarter of last year.

"Thai firms have to look for new markets for trade and the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) countries are one of the most attractive destinations right now, but they must hurry," Korbsak said.

Export sector structural problems

Thailand's export sector has structural problems and there are underlying problems that have not been widely talked about including the hike of the minimum wage to Bt300, which was done too fast, and the escalation of the flooding problem in recent years.

The hasty hike of the minimum wage prompted manufacturers to move to places where labour is cheaper, which means they do not bother to upgrade existing production facilities back in Thailand.

That has led to a lack of technological advances in some industries, which eventually contributed to the slump in the country's exports of information and communications technology and agriculture products.

About 73.9 per cent of Thailand's exports to China are industrial products, 17.8 per cent are agriculture products and 6.5 per cent are minerals and energy products, according to the Commerce Ministry's website.

The escalation of flood problems in a country deemed as natural disaster-free, such as Thailand, is also a factor deterring businesses from solely investing in the Kingdom and propelling them to find a second production site in another country, he added.

Chirathep Senivongs Na Ayudhya, spokesman of the central bank, said the slowdown of imports from major trading partners and the impact from exchange rates are marginal factors and the export sector should concentrate on upgrading its structure by improving the quality and value of its products in order to increase the competitiveness of its goods.

Declining exports to China

Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 (US$ bn)

5.84 6.52 7.64

Top three Thai exports to China (%)

Industrial products 73.9

Agriculture products 17.8

Minerals and energy products 6.5

Sources: Bank of Thailand and Commerce Ministry websites.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Flood-woes-need-to-be-resolved-30242723.html


-- The Nation 2014-09-08

[terryp]

dont hold your breath ....the flood situation in thailand is just insane......they know every year its going to happen but do almost nothing to stop it? the hub of stupidity

for decades i have listened to the so called plans BUT..............................................

[NongKhaiKid]

The floods rate a mention in the first line but the rest of the article is about high speed trains and making money from China.

[chainarong]

But, but, how could this be so, the super fantastic PTP flood mitigation programme solved all this problem , just go's to show you shouldn't believe anything you hear and only believe half of what you see, the People Talk Party fooled yer again.

[JohnThailandJohn]

dont hold your breath ....the flood situation in thailand is just insane......they know every year its going to happen but do almost nothing to stop it? the hub of stupidity

for decades i have listened to the so called plans BUT..............................................

The only way to stop flooding in Thailand is to stop the rains. Short of that they need to stop building in flood plains. Yearly flooding is expected and there is no economically feasible way to stop it ... the rain and water runoff needs to go somewhere. The huge flooding a few years back after record rain falls caught people off guard but for the most part people in some areas expect and prepare for flooding just as folks do who live where there is hurricanes, earthquakes and tornados.

[1weatherman]

"The escalation of flood problems in a country deemed as natural disaster-free, such as Thailand". Natural disaster-free?

I would beg to differ. Flooding, like clockwork, occurs every year somewhere in Thailand. Earthquakes up north, while rare, do happen and as was seen this year can be significant in magnitude. The tsunami 10 years ago. Enough said.

[JohnThailandJohn]

This sounds like a very pro-Chinese article with a misleading headline since flooding is barely mentioned and when mentioned doesn't show any correlation to lack of Chinese investment in the country and somehow doesn't believe flooding is a natural disaster. If foreign investors are scared of flooding in Thailand then don't build in cheap areas that are flood basins or simply prepare to for flooding. Bottom line is China has all the cheap labor they need and are close enough to Thailand there is little reason to build plants here ... unless of course they are spewing toxic chemicals or something along those lines.

[Estrada]

But, but, how could this be so, the super fantastic PTP flood mitigation programme solved all this problem , just go's to show you shouldn't believe anything you hear and only believe half of what you see, the People Talk Party fooled yer again.

You can't fool us, I am an advisor to the Democrats but this is just not the truth.

The flood mitigation program was stopped when PTP were forced to resign by the demonstrations followed by the Coup. The flood mitigation program was also stopped in 2006 when the forced Thaksin out. The flood mitigation program was given Royal approval in 2000 TRT and PTP have always tried to award the contracts for these essential works(they have a substantial incentive to do so i.e. nice little earner). The opposition have forced TRT and PTP out but failed to carry the process on urgently and award the contracts.

[Patje]

dont hold your breath ....the flood situation in thailand is just insane......they know every year its going to happen but do almost nothing to stop it? the hub of stupidity

for decades i have listened to the so called plans BUT..............................................

Yes but every new-year they clean their harddrive so they can start with a clean sheet ,

[JohnThailandJohn]

But, but, how could this be so, the super fantastic PTP flood mitigation programme solved all this problem , just go's to show you shouldn't believe anything you hear and only believe half of what you see, the People Talk Party fooled yer again.

Do you understand what the word "mitigation" means? If so, then not sure why you would incorrectly believe that the problem, which is economically and environmentally unsolvable, would be solved.

Edit: my apologies for taking you serious if this was just an attempt at self deprecating humor.

[hansnl]

Of course China wants something to be done about the flooding problems.

Why?

Huge profits to be made.

And of course room for................

Of course China wants to revive the High speed train plans

Why?

Huge profits to be made.

And, most important, very strategic for the Chinese defense and the search for influence in the region, and very satisfying for the Chinese powerhunger.

And of course room for...............

[hansnl]

dont hold your breath ....the flood situation in thailand is just insane......they know every year its going to happen but do almost nothing to stop it? the hub of stupidity

for decades i have listened to the so called plans BUT..............................................

The only way to stop flooding in Thailand is to stop the rains. Short of that they need to stop building in flood plains. Yearly flooding is expected and there is no economically feasible way to stop it ... the rain and water runoff needs to go somewhere. The huge flooding a few years back after record rain falls caught people off guard but for the most part people in some areas expect and prepare for flooding just as folks do who live where there is hurricanes, earthquakes and tornados.

Why nothing will be done?

Read James Michener's Hawaii, the part about "hiring" the Chinese.

[useronthenet]

A while back the authorities brought in the Dutch (masters of water management), and after they were sent packing. Time after time Thailand ignores advise of those which have proven methods of success. Apparently they are quite able to work things out for themselves, and you of course see the result !

[halloween]

"China wants to build a fast rail from Beijing to Istanbul......."

Beijing an Istanbul are within a degree or so of the same latitude, and nearly half of a direct route would be in China. I suppose it would be cheaper if you could get useful idiots to pay for a lot of it on ephemeral promises of economic benefits, even if some major deviations are involved. Might also be a good idea to bypass the Uighurs.

[casindonet]

No matter who governs, the flooding happens every year....from bad to worse.

[jimbeam1]

A while back the authorities brought in the Dutch (masters of water management), and after they were sent packing. Time after time Thailand ignores advise of those which have proven methods of success. Apparently they are quite able to work things out for themselves, and you of course see the result !

Yingluk sent the Dutch packing because the King came up with a better solution.

jb1

[elgordo38]

I think they should forego the high speed train plan as it could become a washout during the rainy season

[Chris Lawrence]

China will be bending Thailand over and really giving it to them. China investment will benefit China. Thailand officials are deluding themselves or Erich is pushing his own barrow? Erich believes the yuan should be the trade currency of Thailand.

Toyota, Ford, Isuzu, Mazda. VW, just to name a few have invested in Thailand.

Sounds like the reporter is too scared to tell the truth on the reason why Thailand should action a flood mitigation plan?

[Paulzed]

Stop deforestation !!!!!!!

[Old Man River]

But, but, how could this be so, the super fantastic PTP flood mitigation programme solved all this problem , just go's to show you shouldn't believe anything you hear and only believe half of what you see, the People Talk Party fooled yer again.

It was a THB 120 billion flood rehabilitation and prevention plan. By May 2012, close to THB 50 billion had already been spent. The focus seems to have been rehabbing the damaged areas from the 2011 floods.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Brian Corrigan]

Can any one tell me what this article has to do with the boring subject of floods and what are these people doing standing,like idiots, in the flood waters?

[Daniel Boon]

Like Brian Corrigan, l was largely ignorant of Thailand, but that is where the divergence starts ... The greater population of Thailand is not unlike the greater population of any country that has natural disasters; locals of flooding India to Queensland (Australia, where 60% plus was flood affected about 2 years ago) , Americans in the hurricane corridor ...people cannot afford to go elsewhere.

Now that I have married a Thai, I have become more aware, enlightened one might say. So Brian, give yourself a swift uppercut and shut the puck up please, there's a good fellow ...you make the rest of us look bad ...

[lvr181]

A while back the authorities brought in the Dutch (masters of water management), and after they were sent packing. Time after time Thailand ignores advise of those which have proven methods of success. Apparently they are quite able to work things out for themselves, and you of course see the result !

Maybe, just maybe Thai people do not need farang to advise them of better solutions? Is this a cultural mind set? Just thinking.

[darondc]

Army...Dredge...Canals...Trash and Build...gains extra flow and work for them boys

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[OZEMADE]

Just read where Koh Chang Island has had it's worst flooding ever, with bridges, roads and villages washed away. Knowing the Island well, it must be a mess as the roads weren't that good to start. A lot looked like they would slide into the ocean 6 months ago. Be interested to find out more on the flooding and how White Sand Beach came out of it, as I remember the last big floods and monsoon rains washed right through the resorts and all the beaches were washed away.

[Thoth]

This sounds like a very pro-Chinese article with a misleading headline since flooding is barely mentioned and when mentioned doesn't show any correlation to lack of Chinese investment in the country and somehow doesn't believe flooding is a natural disaster. If foreign investors are scared of flooding in Thailand then don't build in cheap areas that are flood basins or simply prepare to for flooding. Bottom line is China has all the cheap labor they need and are close enough to Thailand there is little reason to build plants here ... unless of course they are spewing toxic chemicals or something along those lines.

I am not convinced China has all the cheap labour it needs (in the rural and agricultrual areas it certainly does have) but it has been outsourcing labour for many years now. I think it just depends on what type of 'cheap' labour we are talking about.

[JohnThailandJohn]

This sounds like a very pro-Chinese article with a misleading headline since flooding is barely mentioned and when mentioned doesn't show any correlation to lack of Chinese investment in the country and somehow doesn't believe flooding is a natural disaster. If foreign investors are scared of flooding in Thailand then don't build in cheap areas that are flood basins or simply prepare to for flooding. Bottom line is China has all the cheap labor they need and are close enough to Thailand there is little reason to build plants here ... unless of course they are spewing toxic chemicals or something along those lines.

I am not convinced China has all the cheap labour it needs (in the rural and agricultrual areas it certainly does have) but it has been outsourcing labour for many years now. I think it just depends on what type of 'cheap' labour we are talking about.

I am aware that some companies in China have begun outsourcing labor to places such as Ethiopia for even cheaper labor but haven't heard of anywhere outside 3rd world African Nations. Then again don't follow the topic much but can't see much or really any advantage to them setting up shops in Thailand unless it is on a grand scale to economically colonize Thailand.