Would Ebola Make You Leave Chiang Mai

[Johpa]

The US reaction to this is not dissimilar to its reaction to 9/11, previously there was hardly any border security, then there was an overdose of it. Expect similar when we come out the other side of all this. Gate, bolted, horse, closed, after (and all of that)

The US government response to Ebola has been nothing like the knee jerk response to 9/11 that is still eviscerating our constitution and civil liberties. The government had been taking reasonable and measured responses even in face of the calls from the right to "close the borders". And despite the two unfortunate cases amongst the first health care workers in Dallas to work with a full blown case of Ebola on US soil, there has been no outbreak outside the hospital. And the heads of both the CDC and NIH continue to correctly emphasize that the real concern continues to be the need to focus upon West Africa and the US is backing up that concern with action, unlike the rest of this lame ass world. Do some Googling to find the person who is most responsible for the initial lack of action in West Africa that led the world to this point, and that is the UN's World Health Organization African head, and I kid you not, a Dr. Sambo. It appears that it is this Dr Sambo who is the "Brownie", the failed (Katrina) FEMA head Michael Brown, of this fubar. But the absurd political correctness of our times prevents us for placing the blame where it belongs and instead the global rabble continue to berate the US. Once again it will be up to the US to take the primary lead to stop a global contagion.

[mccw]

Ready water and food stocks now. Seriously.

If it goes global/ reaches Thailand it is already too late to run anywhere.

West seems intent on spreading it to their own countries already by bring the infected back and not quarantining the health workers properly.

Next USA sending 4000 troops over to Africa ; UK 750; will they be returning back home all the ones that get sick? When they can't even contain it handling one or two cases- they are making plans for 10s or hundreds on their home shores? Crazy.

[Konini]

It has to be said, the effort so far has been - well, it was just a teensy bit embarrassing. There's another hospital worker on a cruise ship. A bloody cruise ship. With lots of other people. They tried to put her off in Mexico and Belize, but they refused to let her off.

(Imagine being on that ship right now - they all know what's going on, internet and what not).

If this whole thing wasn't so serious, it would be comical. I can almost hear the Benny Hill music playing in the background.

Edited October 20, 2014 by Konini

[uptheos]

BANGKOK: -- Travel operators have suggested targeting foreign tourists who are concerned about travelling to the West because of the Ebola outbreak.

Ittirit Kinglake, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, suggested that Thai hotels and travel operators consider promoting the Kingdom as an Ebola-free destination.

He said a lot of tourists would avoid travelling to the US, Europe, and Africa for fear of getting infecting with the deadly disease shaking the global travel industry. "Without [any recorded cases of] Ebola here, it is a good time to encourage tourists into the country," Ittirit said.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/769738-thai-tourism-may-get-ebola-fear-leg-up/page-2#entry8557234

[Chiengmaijoe]

Ready water and food stocks now. Seriously.

If it goes global/ reaches Thailand it is already too late to run anywhere.

West seems intent on spreading it to their own countries already by bring the infected back and not quarantining the health workers properly.

Next USA sending 4000 troops over to Africa ; UK 750; will they be returning back home all the ones that get sick? When they can't even contain it handling one or two cases- they are making plans for 10s or hundreds on their home shores? Crazy.

Chicken Little is alive and well.

This topic is a good excuse for a bit of banter maybe, but serious discussion? We might just as well discuss what we would do if Elvis was found to be alive and well living in a moobaan in Hang Dong. It ain't going to happen. No harm in a bit of banter, but 'run for the hills'?

I assume you're a prepper, all stocked up and ready to bunker down. You have possibly left your home country because of the impending armageddon and headed for the hills of Northern Thailand. Right?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/17/apocalypse-now-preppers-are-gearing-up-for-ebola.html

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

^^^ I remember this old timer in Virginia telling me how he had been driving for 50+ years and never had a bad accident. Didn't even bother wearing his safety belt.

Years later I heard he had an accident and partially went thru the windshield and died months later after a series of complications.

Some people plan, some people don't.

Some people are lucky and some not so much.

At the very least the economic complications of a contagion are interesting to consider.

[uptheos]

^^^ I remember this old timer in Virginia telling me how he had been driving for 50+ years and never had a bad accident. Didn't even bother wearing his safety belt.

Years later I heard he had an accident and partially went thru the windshield and died months later after a series of complications.

Some people plan, some people don't.

Some people are lucky and some not so much.

At the very least the economic complications of a contagion are interesting to consider.

Don't worry CSN the Institute for Infectious diseases has all bases covered.

Not that they need to, Thailand is an Ebola free country, a million miles away from any Ebola infection according to many people.

BANGKOK, Oct 20 -- Although no Ebola patient has been found in Thailand so far, more than 900 government community hospitals nationwide are expected to be prepared to provide primary treatment to patients with such infectious diseases by early 2015, according to Public Health Minister Dr Rajata Rajatanavin.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/769831-thai-hospitals-ready-to-service-infectious-ebola-patients-in-early-2015/#entry8558354

[northernjohn]

Got this off of Google news If not allowed mods please remove.

Still, health officials said they were breathing a little easier Monday as the monitoring period ended for many, and after a cruise ship scare ended with the boat returning to port and a lab worker on board testing negative for the virus.

Among those no longer in isolation are the family and friends who were hosting Thomas Eric Duncan before he was diagnosed with Ebola. The Liberian man — who became the first person diagnosed with Ebola in the U.S. — died from the disease Oct. 8 at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital.

Basically what it says is many of the people under observation have been declared Ebola free and the cruise ship has also been declared Ebola free.

Another article said that Nigeria has had no new cases in 6 weeks.

WHO last Friday said that Senagal is Ebola free.

[northernjohn]

For those who are worried about it. There is shots in Chiang Mai available for the Flu and Shingles. Both of which are a real threat in Thailand. I say real threat because they are already here.

[Chiengmaijoe]

I read that the number of infections is doubling every four weeks, if left unchecked that would be Armageddon by next Spring, the trick will be to stop it at the source I reckon.

I wonder if the bookies are taking bets on 'Armageddon by next spring' and if so what the odds are. Has anyone got Paddy power's number handy?

Your suggestion of stopping it 'at source' though unconventional is still a brilliant idea. Have you considered sending this revolutionary, nay, groundbreaking theory to the UN? That's a Nobel prize winning idea, is that.

Edited October 20, 2014 by Chiengmaijoe

[chooka]

If there was an outbreak anywhere in Thailand I doubt anyone would hear about it as it would tarnish Thailand's reputation and effect tourism. The tourist dollar is far more important than life itself.

[Jingthing]

If there was an outbreak anywhere in Thailand I doubt anyone would hear about it as it would tarnish Thailand's reputation and effect tourism. The tourist dollar is far more important than life itself.

If it was anything bigger than a few people, it would be impossible to suppress it getting out in this age of smartphones.

[mccw]

I assume you are an ostrich cross bread with dinosaur. Dodo maybe?

Only joking......

But; For a minor expense it's better to be prepared than not.

Up to you.

Maybe you are prepper in a way too:

-Do you have health insurance or make plans for large enough savings to cover yourself in case of accidents/ health emergencies?

- did or do you save money to fund retirement?

It would ironic if you faced a material or health hardship while having millions in the bank from a nice financial prepping but a non existent material emergency scenario plan. Especially since the basics don't cost much at all.

Chock dee

Ready water and food stocks now. Seriously.

If it goes global/ reaches Thailand it is already too late to run anywhere.

West seems intent on spreading it to their own countries already by bring the infected back and not quarantining the health workers properly.

Next USA sending 4000 troops over to Africa ; UK 750; will they be returning back home all the ones that get sick? When they can't even contain it handling one or two cases- they are making plans for 10s or hundreds on their home shores? Crazy.

Chicken Little is alive and well.

This topic is a good excuse for a bit of banter maybe, but serious discussion? We might just as well discuss what we would do if Elvis was found to be alive and well living in a moobaan in Hang Dong. It ain't going to happen. No harm in a bit of banter, but 'run for the hills'?

I assume you're a prepper, all stocked up and ready to bunker down. You have possibly left your home country because of the impending armageddon and headed for the hills of Northern Thailand. Right?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/17/apocalypse-now-preppers-are-gearing-up-for-ebola.html

[chiang mai]

I read that the number of infections is doubling every four weeks, if left unchecked that would be Armageddon by next Spring, the trick will be to stop it at the source I reckon.

I wonder if the bookies are taking bets on 'Armageddon by next spring' and if so what the odds are. Has anyone got Paddy power's number handy?

Your suggestion of stopping it 'at source' though unconventional is still a brilliant idea. Have you considered sending this revolutionary, nay, groundbreaking theory to the UN? That's a Nobel prize winning idea, is that.

[uptheos]

From what I've been reading, the African countries have cracked it.

Now perhaps they will start sending people to share their knowledge with other African countries.

Somewhat reassuring to hear of Thailand's contingency plans, sounds like they are the best prepared country.

[northernjohn]

From what I've been reading, the African countries have cracked it.

Now perhaps they will start sending people to share their knowledge with other African countries.

Somewhat reassuring to hear of Thailand's contingency plans, sounds like they are the best prepared country.

I read some where that the EU had sent a bunch of people to Africa to help stop the disease.

I was reading that in order for the WHO to say the disease is gone in a country they have to have 42 days with out a reported case of the disease. The incubation period is 21 days and they require double that.

[uptheos]

From what I've been reading, the African countries have cracked it.

Now perhaps they will start sending people to share their knowledge with other African countries.

Somewhat reassuring to hear of Thailand's contingency plans, sounds like they are the best prepared country.

I read some where that the EU had sent a bunch of people to Africa to help stop the disease.

I was reading that in order for the WHO to say the disease is gone in a country they have to have 42 days with out a reported case of the disease. The incubation period is 21 days and they require double that.

Nigeria is now free of Ebola virus transmission

The lines on the tabular situation reports, sent to WHO each day by its country office in Nigeria, have now been full of zeros for 42 days.

WHO officially declares that Nigeria is now free of Ebola virus transmission

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/20-october-2014/en/

Nigeria has a LOT of resources, I'm sure they can do their bit.

[worgeordie]

The Ebola virus will still be there, just waiting for someone to

eat a bat or a monkey,the it will start all over again.

regards worgeordie

[Jingthing]

I agree the bat is out of the bag. Regardless of the outcome of this current outbreak a vaccine and cure should be a high global priority.

Sent from my Lenovo S820_ROW using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Konini]

I think the one good thing to come out of this is that more people in the world are now aware how dangerous ebola can be, and more resources will be put into finding a vaccine (if that is possible, maybe it isn't) or a cure or a way to stop it spreading.

Up until this outbreak, I've been pretty much Robinson Crusoe in my morbid fascination with it. Whenever I've mentioned it to people (rarely) over the last 10 or 11 years at least, I think it may be longer, everyone had heard of it but not given it any thought. Thankfully, that's changed now and the public will want to know that governments and scientists are actually doing something, unless it goes out of people's minds once the initial fuss dies down.

If this outbreak has reached it's tipping point and has started to fall away rather than get worse (and I hope very much it has), it will be very interesting to revisit this subject in 12 month's time to see if the same level of concern or interest is around then. It has the potential to go back to being out of sight, out of mind.

[northernjohn]

I think the one good thing to come out of this is that more people in the world are now aware how dangerous ebola can be, and more resources will be put into finding a vaccine (if that is possible, maybe it isn't) or a cure or a way to stop it spreading.

Up until this outbreak, I've been pretty much Robinson Crusoe in my morbid fascination with it. Whenever I've mentioned it to people (rarely) over the last 10 or 11 years at least, I think it may be longer, everyone had heard of it but not given it any thought. Thankfully, that's changed now and the public will want to know that governments and scientists are actually doing something, unless it goes out of people's minds once the initial fuss dies down.

If this outbreak has reached it's tipping point and has started to fall away rather than get worse (and I hope very much it has), it will be very interesting to revisit this subject in 12 month's time to see if the same level of concern or interest is around then. It has the potential to go back to being out of sight, out of mind.

This has just been a passing fancy. The public gives no thought what so ever to the Flu which kills 500,000 a year. Remember when they used to make a big deal about it. Eventually it lost it's popularity and people where looking for a new thing to fear. Even if they come up with a vaccine for it the disease will still be around. Nothing ever gets wiped out. There are still people catching Polio. As has been said it will still be with the bats.

The last figure I heard for deaths was under 5,000 world wide. I am sure there was more unreported deaths in Africa. But 5,000 out of 7,000,000,000 is not that big of a deal.

Yes Science will come up with a vaccine if they haven't already done so. Like the flu it will develop a resistance to it and break out in a new form which I am sure science will be able to handle based on the research and knowledge they have gained on this go round with it. I said this go around with it because we have had to deal with it about ten times since it first appeared in the 70s. We got through it then with out all the hysteria and we will get through it this time.

[Jingthing]

Not to be callous but standard flu seasons (except for global flu pandemics which always remain a possibility) generally kill mostly the elderly and health compromised. Ebola is much more aggressive than that with the general public.

[Chiengmaijoe]

As regards to it being newsworthy, I think Ebola has almost runs it's course. I give it another week or so of it being in the first three news items before it slips out of the top ten entirely. It will have nothing to do with people no longer dying and more to do with it becoming 'old' news. If you want a good example of that, look at HIV/AIDS. More people will have died of that in the last month or so, and not just in Africa, but worldwide, in practically every country, but it just isn't newsworthy any more. HIV/AIDS is a truly global virus but when was the last time it featured in the news and who is running to the hills or talking about "what will you do if HIV/AIDS comes to Chiang Mai"?

Basically, Ebola is an African disease and if history has anything to do with it, it will soon be forgotten about. Who cares about Dengue, or Malaria, and how many people will die of that this year? Africans or Asians dying is not important, unless it could affect the west. Sad but true.

So long as Europe and America are unaffected, and that is basically the case with Ebola, Dengue and Malaria, it will just be forgotten about until the next serious outbreak. It's just news, nothing more, nothing less, and we all know the life-span of news items don't we? In case you don't , I'll give you a clue, it has a direct correlalation with average attention spans.

Edited October 21, 2014 by Chiengmaijoe

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Slowly, oh so slowly, the U.S. is being pulled into screening/monitoring incoming travelers from suspect countries:

CDC: Travelers from West Africa to undergo 21-day monitoring for Ebola

October 22, 2014

The CDC is implementing active monitoring of all travelers returning to the United States from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone to quickly identify people with fever or symptoms of Ebola.

The 21-day post-arrival monitoring will begin Monday in six states where approximately 70% of the incoming travelers are bound: Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

“The strongest public health measure against Ebola is to quickly isolate patients who have symptoms,” CDC Director Thomas Frieden, MD, MPH, said during a media briefing. “These new measures will give additional levels of safety so that patients who develop symptoms are isolated early, and reduce the chance that Ebola will spread from an ill person to close contacts and health care workers.”

State and local health officials in the six states will work with the CDC to actively monitor the arrivals, who will be required to report their temperature daily and the presence or absence of Ebola symptoms. If the individuals do not report in, the officials will take immediate steps to find the individuals, who will be required to provide extensive contact information upon entering the United States. Arrivals also will receive a kit that includes a tracking log, a description of symptoms, a thermometer and information on who to contact if they develop symptoms.

The monitoring is one more level of protection to prevent the spread of Ebola in the United States and protect Americans, Frieden said. Currently, travelers leaving Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone undergo exit screening for fever, symptoms or contact with Ebola, and earlier this month, five US airports also began performing entry screening on passengers whose travel originated in those countries.

The five airports — New York’s JFK, Newark, Washington-Dulles, Chicago-O’Hare and Atlanta — receive more than 94% of the travelers from the three West African countries. This week the Department of Homeland Security mandated all travelers from these countries be directed through one of those five airports.

“We can’t get to zero risk here until we stop the outbreak in West Africa,” Frieden said. “We’re seeing progress, but we have to keep our guard up.”

http://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/%7B957e022a-54f3-49f1-b0ed-d0d3ffed3a51%7D/cdc-travelers-from-west-africa-to-undergo-21-day-monitoring-for-ebola

Edited October 23, 2014 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Without screening, three people with Ebola could exit West Africa monthly

October 22, 2014

Without any exit or entry screening, an average of 2.8 people with Ebola are estimated to depart from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone per month, according to a recent study published in The Lancet.

Isaac I. Bogoch, MD, of the University of Toronto, and colleagues examined international flight schedules collected by the International Air Transport Association from September through the end of the year, as well as passenger itineraries for the same period during 2013. The researchers predicted the number of exported Ebola infections based on WHO virus surveillance data for each of the three outbreak countries. Models also were created to measure the potential effects of air travel restrictions and screening procedures.

Assuming conditions before the outbreak, meaning no reduction in air travel from 2013 and no exit or entry screening, 7.17 people with Ebola would be expected to leave the three countries monthly, the researchers wrote. One traveler with the infection would leave Guinea every 2.7 months, Liberia every 0.2 months and Sierra Leone every 0.6 months. This translates to monthly averages of 0.37 persons in Guinea, 5.08 in Liberia and 1.72 in Sierra Leone.

MORE:

Edited October 23, 2014 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Konini]

Just as this was going from being a sexy news item to an uninteresting one, a doctor in New York has been diagnosed to have ebola. This should whip the media up again for the weekend. We can only hope that in such a heavily populated city, he hasn't infected one other person, as the domino effect could be horrendous.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Yeah and the night before he was around town in taxi's and went bowling. They best sanitize all the balls there.

Good luck finding all the people he came in contact with to quarantine

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/10/23/cbs-2-officials-looking-into-possible-ebola-case-in-new-york-city/

CMJ/NJ .... now you have a few cannonballs in your washing machine

What happens to financial markets ? Will traders get spooked?

Interesting times

[Ulysses G.]

As regards to it being newsworthy, I think Ebola has almost runs it's course.

Not yet.

NEW YORK - The first case of Ebola may have arrived in New York City.

Officials said a doctor who recently returned from West Africa was positive in preliminary tests for the Ebola virus Thursday night, Associated Press reported.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/10/23/ebola-in-nyc-the-answer-will-be-here-in-12-hours/17786777/

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Sounds like the two infected Dallas nurses are doing better.

See in the news, Vinson's family issued a statement saying doctors no longer can find ebola in her system. And Pham's condition has been upgraded to good.

[Konini]

Good to hear that the nurses are getting better, they'd sort of fallen off the radar, hadn't they?

Having now had time to digest the news about this doctor in New York though, what on earth was he thinking? Having been exposed to ebola, doing good deeds by treating those less fortunate, with no financial reward and without being legally compelled notwithstanding, how could he not quarantine himself? Joe Public, fair enough, that's why humankind needs governments and 'nanny states' to keep those who don't see the bigger picture in line. But a doctor of all people should know better. Incubation period x 2 + 1 day = 21 days. If I know that, and I would have the common sense not to mix and mingle until there was no possible chance of my being infected, how could a doctor not have the foresight to know he ought not? Although it's very unlikely that he would have infected others, the main driver here is risk, and as a doctor he should have been a lot more aware and adverse than the average bloke in the street. He obviously thought about it, because he had been to an extent self-isolating by not going out too much and has been taking his temperature twice a day. Even so, as we all now know ebola does not become transmissible until the carrier has symptoms of the disease, yet he was in contact with 4 people AFTER the symptoms became apparent. Again, as a doctor he should have been more aware of what those symptoms would have been than the average bloke on the street, and yet he still did it. I just don't understand his actions, unless ebola in some way effects the quality of your decision making or judgement. But then I have to ask is what were the government thinking? Just letting him pass through immigration into one of the biggest cities in the world and trusting that he would be sensible - as I said, there may be a part of this disease that we don't yet know about in relation to affecting judgement; most of those infected so far have been sections of society where poor judgement may not have been easily noticed - indeed, have any studies even been done into less apparent symptoms.

What we have to remember here is that while ebola fortunately remains more difficult to catch than many infectious diseases, anyone having direct contact with sufferers are very, very high risk. I can't go along with those (not on this forum, I hasten to add) saying that everybody coming off an aircraft from west Africa should be quarantined, but for goodness sake, those who have had direct exposure should be. Surely that's not an unreasonable position to take?

Many, both here and 'back home', decry the nanny state, but if the 'educated' sections of society can act this in such a foolhardy manner, all I can say is long live the nanny state, for the benefit of all.