Foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand drop 10.28 percent

[tbthailand]

once they roll out their new 'martial law tourism' package the numbers will jump.

[welshlady]

Chinese come but don't spend the money like other nationals do, the way Thailand thinks the best way to counteract this is to put up the prices, this isn't going to keep people spending, why doesn't just a few Thail people learn this lesson as I'm sure all would then follow

[masuk]

My friends in the tourism business say that they have full November bookings.

[MaxYakov]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

Simple Thai logic - if fewer visitors are staying we must charge them more to make sure we have the same income! This may fall apart when it reaches the stage of one tourist having to fund the entire running cost of the establishment!!

I'd say there's no "may" about it unless that single occupant is completely oblivious to price. It makes me wonder at what point a "price war" would erupt among establishments or is that a completely alien (i.e. Western) concept. I'm also wondering about the Price Elasticity of Demand* for certain Thai venues.

* = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand

[NoBrainer]

How many of that 10% were border runners?

You have a way too Thaivisa centric view of things if you think the number of border runs is anything but insignificant in the overall scheme of things.

These figures are from the beginning of the year, visa rules changed in August, secondly there's a huge drop from China and I don't think Chinese tourists are visa runners.

The huge drop from China alone makes these figures look suspect.

I read last week that the Full Moon parties in Koh Pagn Nah usually attract about 40K tourists, but the one last week had less that 10K.

[Yann55]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

Because they have less guests !

And I'm not joking ... I've seen it happen in Thailand a number of times...

A lady who used to have a shop in Royal Garden Plaza was complaining that her turnover was steadily declining, so I asked her what she tried to do in order to tackle such a serious problem.

Her answer was "I tried everything kha ... I raised the prices by 10% and then 20 and then 30%, but nothing worked!" ...

Her shop is now closed.

[beautifulthailand99]

Besides, KT is not symbolic of all the islands - far from it I would hope.

From what I have seen, KT is a perfect example of all the islands.

Rape, murder, violence, gang control and mafia.

must say i found Kho Chang to be different from most of the other islands...very peaceful.

Have spent a lot of tine on Ko Chang and spoken with a lot of expat business owners there - never had any trouble and no a hint of mafia as far as can tell. Will be goig back as soon as I can.

[kannot]

massive fall...................oh gawd this means prices will go up for us remaining!!

[matseng]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

Because they are using Thai-logic... When demand is low, then raise the prices to recover the lost revenue.

That's the same logic that Arab drivers used in UAE. The few days with rain there during the year the drivers drove faster in order to not spend so long time on the dangerous conditions on the roads. It usually ended up with a mass-pileup of nice cars. :-)

[John1thru10]

To every person here, who went on and on each week, praising the Junta, villifying all the visa runners, calling visa runs for 'criminals', and claiming it would have NO EFFECT on the economy: YOU WERE WRONG.

And all the people you made fun of every week here, saying 'good riddance' and 'Thailand won't miss you': THEY WERE RIGHT.

Edited October 14, 2014 by John1thru10

[MarkmBha]

One never knows whom to believe anymore.

[ksamuiguy]

Disappearing aircraft, Shooting down civilian airliner, confusing inconstant visa requirements and rule changes, Ebola, increased security and health checks at air ports. Traveling does not give on a warm fuzzy feeling anymore. So many are opting to stay home and spend their money local or save for a future vacation. When and if the world wide BS slows down things will probably improve. It's not only Thailand that is down it is every where.

[MaxYakov]

once they roll out their new 'martial law tourism' package the numbers will jump.

I'd certainly sign up for the tank driver's training tour along the Sukhumvit sidewalk bars.

[ggt]

A short while back...there was an article stating tourism was down by as much as 40%...which is closer to what is seen around Pattaya these days...

[John1thru10]

Then why are all my favorite hotels charging higher advertised rates this year than the same months last year?

That's how they do it here; it's the same where I live. When occupancy goes down, instead of lowering rates to be competeitive, the zeitgeist here is to raise prices, to make up for it.

[SamuiRes]

Chinese come but don't spend the money like other nationals do, the way Thailand thinks the best way to counteract this is to put up the prices, this isn't going to keep people spending, why doesn't just a few Thail people learn this lesson as I'm sure all would then follow

That is absolutely correct. They spend very little money outside their hotels and many are on full board deals. The hotels gain by higher occupancy but lose out on revenue overall. Tourist numbers mean nothing if they are not coming with loaded wallets - and that is not the Chinese.

[John1thru10]

Not difficult to understand why tourism is down when Thailand is the leader in so many ways over other SEA countries.

Nobody really cares about the government and martial law, but there are a few other reasons why tourist might go some other place.

1. Dirty beaches and water (except Manila's water front).

3. Over priced motorcycle taxis.

4. Muggings, robberies and murders of tourists.

5. Teenagers and man with guns, shooting in the streets.

6. HIV on the rise.

7. "Special pricing" for foreigners for goods, services, shows, parks and events.

8. "Special free tours" because some event or temple is "closed" today.

9. Overly aggressive katoeys on walkways and those looking to steal from foreigners.

10. Bar girls with the IQ and personality of a toad.

11. Police corruption and demanding money from foreigners.

12. Jet ski and motorcycle rental scams.

13. Dirty streets with garbage.

14. Trash and construction debris jumped in every open area.

15. Crazy drivers who don't have any knowledge of proper driving or consideration for anyone.

16. A Buddhist country where no one practicies the teachings of Buddha unless it is when they can personally gain from it.

17. The low class type of tourists that are currently being encouraged to visit Thailand discourages other tourists from coming.

18. Imcompetant leadership at TAT.

19. Raising prices when business is slow.

20. The friendly doormen and bouncers at night clubs who like to beat on foregners.

21. Thai men who would rather kill you than loose "face".

22. Yaba addicts everywhere.

23. And the list can just go on and on.

If that's the case, then justify your point by showing that none of the things you mentioned existed before this year. You can't do that, of course, because they did; and your reasoning is irrational. It is the martial law, plus the huge crackdown on visa runs. That is OBVIOUSLY the reason, as the number drops occurred as a direct result of making people feel unwelcome, imposing draconian restrictions everywhere, and refusing to let people in. To deny that, is illogical.

[minikev]

To every person here, who went on and on each week, praising the Junta, villifying all the visa runners, calling visa runs for 'criminals', and claiming it would have NO EFFECT on the economy: YOU WERE WRONG.

And all the people you made fun of every week here, saying 'good riddance' and 'Thailand won't miss you': THEY WERE RIGHT.

The Chinese are up for sure since they don't have to get a visa now. Loadsa coach tours. Stops at seven 11 to get a pot noodle.

[phuketandsee]

Raising prices when demand drops is not just a Thai thing. Same in Vietnam. Must be Asian economic theory.

[stat088]

How many of that 10% were border runners?

You have a way too Thaivisa centric view of things if you think the number of border runs is anything but insignificant in the overall scheme of things.

These figures are from the beginning of the year, visa rules changed in August, secondly there's a huge drop from China and I don't think Chinese tourists are visa runners.

Mosha lives in the "jungle".

[catweazle]

Why am I not surprised? Is it perhaps because...

1) Visitors have realised that Thailand is far from "safe" due to the Koh Tao and other incidents?

2) The deep south is a civil war zone, although not officialy announced as such?

3) Democracy is dead in Thailand?

4) Thailand by now is without freedom of speech and under censorship?

5) Your friend and helper, the RTP is a corrupt pile of horse$#ite?

6) Many Thais are getting more uneasy and more aggressive by the day?

7) Foreigners are losing more and more rights and by now are stripped of the few privileges they previously had?

8) It still is unattractive to invest in Thailand since foreigner can own $#!t and due to all the additional minus pointes here it gets even more unattractive?

9) National and marine parks are being poached, neglected and handed to the fishery industry to be destoyed at will, while the park fees disappear in the rangers' pockets?

10) Martial law?

11) The smile in the land of such disappearing?

12) Prices increasing?

13) Quality decreasing?

14) ... on and on goes the list - it could fill a book

[ATF]

If TAT are prepared to admit to a 10.28% drop then the real number is probably a lot worse.

Don't change your dollars yet. Wait until Ebola hits town.

[catweazle]

Sorry aguy30 - saw your post too late - we could join our two lists and invite others to complete it

[Braddockrd]

That is fantastic news for the rest!

[outsider]

Consider educating outward-facing personnel, especially frontline staffs and managers at tourist touchpoints - including jet-ski scammers and other con artists, on sustainable business practices, long-term objectives and growth? Or is this too much to ask for from a society that automaically operates on shortsighted, short-term and quick-gain-and-results tactics? If the latter, then Thailand's status as a tourists' destination is numbered, and the number isn't a very big one, considering how neighbouring countries are ramping up efforts to boost tourism. And poorer as they may be (for now), these neighbouring competitions do have a better command of Engilsh compared to Thailand. Buck up Thailand, or butt out?

[dundas]

I think Thailand is getting bad press at the moment. The well publicised recent RTP murder investigation hasn't helped, and whatever we think of martial law, it's not a good look internationally.

It you really want to get an idea of how well the tourism industry is doing, just look at the unsold inventory on airline seats. A recent TV thread had high season fares from NYC at bargain prices, and I was able to get a very cheap fare on Thai Airways for travel from Australia to Thailand next month, and there was heaps of seat availability when I booked. It's may not be just border runner numbers that are down.

Edited October 14, 2014 by dundas

[Number 3]

The one positive thing is TAT has been muzzled, it appears. Perhaps someone with integrity was asked to provide accurate information, for a change.

Great care was taken not to mention the islands, but again this was an opportunity missed, they could express condolences and support for (real) justice to be served.

Besides, KT is not symbolic of all the islands - far from it I would hope.

Compare the " social structures" in places like KPN and KS and you will find them all about even Stevens in the way they operate with "families and police of great influence". They are all an organ of the same functioning living organism. Don't believe anything different. If KT is exposed KPN and KS will follow. Protecting KT is not what this entire cover up is about. Only a part of what it is about. All three islands are covering each other at this very moment. Watch this space.

[aguy30]

Not difficult to understand why tourism is down when Thailand is the leader in so many ways over other SEA countries.

Nobody really cares about the government and martial law, but there are a few other reasons why tourist might go some other place.

1. Dirty beaches and water (except Manila's water front).

3. Over priced motorcycle taxis.

4. Muggings, robberies and murders of tourists.

5. Teenagers and man with guns, shooting in the streets.

6. HIV on the rise.

7. "Special pricing" for foreigners for goods, services, shows, parks and events.

8. "Special free tours" because some event or temple is "closed" today.

9. Overly aggressive katoeys on walkways and those looking to steal from foreigners.

10. Bar girls with the IQ and personality of a toad.

11. Police corruption and demanding money from foreigners.

12. Jet ski and motorcycle rental scams.

13. Dirty streets with garbage.

14. Trash and construction debris jumped in every open area.

15. Crazy drivers who don't have any knowledge of proper driving or consideration for anyone.

16. A Buddhist country where no one practicies the teachings of Buddha unless it is when they can personally gain from it.

17. The low class type of tourists that are currently being encouraged to visit Thailand discourages other tourists from coming.

18. Imcompetant leadership at TAT.

19. Raising prices when business is slow.

20. The friendly doormen and bouncers at night clubs who like to beat on foregners.

21. Thai men who would rather kill you than loose "face".

22. Yaba addicts everywhere.

23. And the list can just go on and on.

If that's the case, then justify your point by showing that none of the things you mentioned existed before this year. You can't do that, of course, because they did; and your reasoning is irrational. It is the martial law, plus the huge crackdown on visa runs. That is OBVIOUSLY the reason, as the number drops occurred as a direct result of making people feel unwelcome, imposing draconian restrictions everywhere, and refusing to let people in. To deny that, is illogical.

Maybe I should concede. If you say that is the obvious reason then you must be correct because you said it or maybe you should get away from your keyboard and go out outside more often to see the continual deteioration around you.

[Yann55]

The one positive thing is TAT has been muzzled, it appears. Perhaps someone with integrity was asked to provide accurate information, for a change.

Great care was taken not to mention the islands, but again this was an opportunity missed, they could express condolences and support for (real) justice to be served.

Besides, KT is not symbolic of all the islands - far from it I would hope.

About your hope... I'm afraid it's wishful thinking, pal.

The five common points of all the islands in LOS are :

1. They're run by a limited number of clans who act like there's no law, simply because

2. they bribe the local authorities who are not numerous and therefore easily 'bought',

3. The locals usually have little or no idea about how to run a tourist business in a logical, rational and profitable way, but the profit comes in anyway so why should they care ?

4. The locals work as little as possible and hire an impressive proportion of illegal migrant workers, with very little legal risk (see point 2). Those migrant workers are paid a ridiculous amount, sleep and live in spartan conditions, are ill-treated and looked down upon by the locals, and have absolutely no sex life (Thai girls would not touch them even with a space suit on, prostitutes are not within their means and there are very few migrant girls because it would be extremely dangerous for them and they know it). These guys are therefore walking pressure cookers waiting to explode,

5. The locals have an insular mentality (not specific to Thai islands but can be seen in all islands around the world) which means they dislike anyone who is not from the island. Of course they learn to hide their contempt because they are not stupid and do realize that it's not good for business, but it oozes out of their attitude in a million ways for anyone who is minimally observant.

Edited October 14, 2014 by Yann55

[aguy30]

Sorry aguy30 - saw your post too late - we could join our two lists and invite others to complete it

Some good points, but I'm sure that John1thru10 will not agree with us.