Thai Baht AUS$ falling everyday. Anyone have an insight on what may happen?

[Kenny202]

Heading over in two weeks and was planning to transfer some start up money over ($50k) to buy a pick up

and get set up. I don't have my bank account set up yet so unable to tfer money and travel card rates

are pathetic. Does anyone have any insight as to what may happen if will go up or down more?

Obviously if someone knew that for sure they would be a rich man but just wondering should I just send

a little money now if there is a chance the baht will bounce back up again in the next few months?

Some are saying the AUS$ will fall to 0.80c US before it comes back

[davidst01]

a week or so ago when I transferred money over by IMT I got 28baht to the $. Im unsure exactly what it is today.

Assuming its around the same level you will obviously lose around 80,000 baht. For a long time I was always getting a rate of 30.

Thus, if you can defer getting a pickup etc and dont send the money over right now you could gain the 80k plus the interest you could earn by having the money in one of the 'online saver' accounts that are paying 3.8% to 4%. Waiting 6 months for the rate to return to 30 could save you the 80k which is $2,666

But rates go up and down like a yo yo and thus dont know / cant predict what will happen with them. Most folk on this forum will also not be able to say either

good luck

[jacksam]

The AUD is at levels that au treasury are not all that happy with. The exchange rate against the standard..ie greenback was a while back very high.

Normal rates for AUD may fall below 0.80 USD. Some predicting lower....

If you live here and have to exchange into baht on regular basis move your aid into something else. Gold would not be stupid, esp given world events.

Edited November 7, 2014 by jacksam

[jacksam]

Heading over in two weeks and was planning to transfer some start up money over ($50k) to buy a pick up

and get set up. I don't have my bank account set up yet so unable to tfer money and travel card rates

are pathetic. Does anyone have any insight as to what may happen if will go up or down more?

Obviously if someone knew that for sure they would be a rich man but just wondering should I just send

a little money now if there is a chance the baht will bounce back up again in the next few months?

Some are saying the AUS$ will fall to 0.80c US before it comes back

Some are saying a lot lower and lower to stay. Exchange rates are not like shares. The "general trend " for them is up.....meaning including crashes and adjustments they rise. X rates not so.

Move out of dollars now.

[winnerinsix]

The low price for Iron Ore is hurting the AUD, along with the new restrictions China has placed on coal fired emissions.... Australia is a quarry, and sadly is at the mercy of world commodity markets... Look for above than expected Chinese growth figures and the AUD will strengthen.... The other yolk around the neck of the AUD, is the highest unemployment figures in 12 years.. Business, has openly lost confidence in the government which is another small but important factor.


The USD is rallying, rightly or wrongly, we have to wait and see... The USD jumped on the election of the republicans a couple of days ago, but I feel that may be short lived optimism.

I think the silver lining is the Baht, IMO, it is heading for a decline... The stimulus package either hasn't been effective or has only in part been implemented... that is unclear, because the current Thai Govt, is a very confusing animal itself... The projected growth rate for Thailand is 1.5%, well below like countries in the region....

Gold is low atm, at 1133 USD, but I would wait.. I have seen forecasts of 800 USD by the end of 2015.. whether that happens or not is another thing.

[oztaurus]

Though not officially pegged to the USD, the baht always seems strong against it despite any events which would indicate otherwise.

As Winnerinsix and jacksam said, the Aussie treasury wants a lower AUD to boost export competitiveness.

The AUD has been steadily losing ground against the USD for almost 4 years so,

while you might get a short term gain or loss depending on the day

I would guess that the longer you wait, the more it will cost you.

[slipperylobster]

Aussie money going down...USD going up...

Sounds good. So much for the rumours about the US Economy self destructing.

[jacksam]

Dont confuse the value of USD to health of economy overall....you may wish to look at USA debt.

[winnerinsix]

Dont confuse the value of USD to health of economy overall....you may wish to look at USA debt.

Very true.....

the AUD is still well above the long term average, against the USD, since being floated in '83.

Edited November 7, 2014 by winnerinsix

[slipperylobster]

Dont confuse the value of USD to health of economy overall....you may wish to look at USA debt.

I suppose if everyone was to pay back what they owed....we would still be ok.

In any case....This is not about the USA debt. More about the weak AUD .

Edited November 7, 2014 by slipperylobster

[shirtless]

Dont try to make any sense out of the markets , Wait and see what happens while QE has now stopped.

[mesquite]

The USD is getting stronger due to the announcement that QE is ending. After a few months, the stock market will start to tank, like gold already has. Then we will be hit with QE4 and the USD will drop like a rock.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

NZ$ dropped from 28 to 24 in the last six weeks.

That's a 17% loss.

Edited November 7, 2014 by AnotherOneAmerican

[canman]

Commodities tanking; AUD and CAD following the drop as usual.

[mihalis]

Try looking at ozforex.com.au

[Suradit69]

The AUD is at levels that au treasury are not all that happy with. The exchange rate against the standard..ie greenback was a while back very high.

Normal rates for AUD may fall below 0.80 USD. Some predicting lower....

If you live here and have to exchange into baht on regular basis move your aid into something else. Gold would not be stupid, esp given world events.

"Gold would not be stupid, esp given world events. "

We've had plenty of "world events" the past few years and watched gold sink lower and lower. Some are predicting a bottoming out at US$1050 per ounce or even lower, which would be a bit more than Baht 16,000 per baht weight at current exchange rates.

If you have a long term perspective it may soon be a good place to put some (more) money, but you wouldn't want to think of it as an alternative to savings available for emergencies or general expenses. You're bound to need it at just the wrong time in the pricing cycle. If you want to hold gold while a long term resident in Thailand, buy Thai gold. It's nearly as liquid as cash if you need to cash it in and you can do a little in/out trading by watching price movements. Below is the infamous vomiting camel gold chart produced by Brian Kelly that illustrates the volatility of gold and, for chartists, a indication it could go a lot lower.

Currency rates tend to be cyclical and the Aussie dollar tends to reflect international commodity prices because of their mining industries.

Transfer just what you need into baht when the rates are working against you and step up the pace when the rates are in your favor so you can coast a bit when they swing back the wrong way. Certainly would avoid the European currencies as Super Mario tries to avert the economies and currencies from going down the toilet again.

[mesquite]

"Dreaded Vomiting Camel Pattern"

Edited November 7, 2014 by mesquite

[The Deerhunter]

NZ$ dropped from 28 to 24 in the last six weeks.

That's a 17% loss.

I have just been looking at all the exchange rates Saw your post and was going to click on "Like that" but I certainly do NOT like what is happening to currencies not officially or unofficially tied to the Euro or the US. Could be worse. Look at the Rouble against ANYTHING!!!!!!!

[wonder6281]

Bring some cash .. open an account and wait until after Xmas and transfer then .. This time of the year seems to see the exchange rate drop below what you can expect around March/April. It is very unpredictable but what I have noticed the AUD does ride a roller coaster with midweek being the best days usually every 2 weeks.

[elgordo38]

The US dollar is strong because the rest of the world is going down the crapper. Japan has just started a huge QE program even to the point where they will buy foreign stocks. Europe is slipping back into recession as well. The war index is rising as well so look out for hot spots around the globe. As European and Russian and other world currencies drops in value they switch their money into US dollars and into the US stock market. I have heard figures of 31,000 for the Dow. Also I feel the big boys are goosing the market to drive it up and then when it tops they will short it and have it both ways. Goodbye little guy again. The US as well packages the information they release i.e. unemployment numbers, home sales Where will all the spending come from as 1/3 of all young people 35 years and younger are living in their parents basement paying of college loans they will not rush out and buy a new car soon. If you figure the people that have dropped out of looking for work the people working more than 1 job and the underemployed the rate is much higher than the 5.8 that they tout. The stock market is highly overvalued and climbing a wall of worry. When the <deleted> hits the fan lookout the doorways will be too narrow for everybody to rush through at the same time. Margin calls on stock will happen to as the people buying stock on credit is at an all time high. Margin calls feed on themselves. The oil frackers are in trouble now with oil at $78 a barrel and if it reaches 70 50% of the frackers will loose money. Saudi Arabia this time is pushing prices down to push a lot of producers out of business and to hold other OPEC members in check who if the Saudi's cut production would step in and steal customers like they did in the last oil downturn. The Saudi's are getting smarter and have deeper pockets.

[Saan]

Have an each way bet. Convert half to baht now and wait and see with the rest.

[Tazwa]

I'd just go ahead and transfer now. If you're waiting for the Aussie to hit 30 baht again, you might not have that new pickup for a long time.

You're still going to get that new car far cheaper than what you'd pay in Australia anyway.

Nobody knows what the dollar will do. I clearly recall the last time that the Aussie dollar dropped below 90 cents, 'experts' were coming out of the woodwork in the media proclaiming that the Aussie would promptly fall to 70 cents or even as low as 55 cents to the $US. What happened next? It climbed back up to 94 cents and stayed thereabouts for over 6 months.

On balance, it would appear that sentiment is more bullish on the $US recently and who knows how long this will last?

With the Russian ruble down 30% to the Thai baht compared to last high season, I think the tourism sector is in for a rude shock this Christmas season. Can you imagine the $AUD fetching 20 baht? That's the equivalent fall for the Russians. I think this may negatively affect the baht.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Tazwa

[GreasyFingers]

I have been converting from AUD for about 5 years with rates varying from 27 baht to 31 baht from year to year. It was 30 baht earlier this year but 28 baht seems a reasonable short term rate but it is below that at the moment.

You are better to bring as much cash with you as you can or are prepared to carry. Don't worry about the $10000 undeclared limit. Over that it just another form to sign declaring the amount. No questions where it came from but they probably check later. You will get a much better exchange rate here in Thailand for cash than you will with a forex transfer (especially if you use a bank).

[Sparkles]

The saving grace if you are converting A$ to Thai baht is that the Thai economy is not travelling well. A stock take on the failed, and stupid rice scheme, has revealed losses amounting to a trillion baht amongst other negative news.

That can't be waved away it has to be absorbed. The new regime now seems to be putting hurdles in front of foreign investment and Thai household debt has risen 45 % in the last 5 years my bank manager tells me.

So Thailand is still liveable for anyone seeking an alternative to living in Oz. I well know I certainly couldn't afford to live in Australia. Sydney now the 3 rd most expensive city in the world to buy real estate and live where did it all go wrong ?

Whatever you do don't going buying real estate here you could be in a dark place for a long time. Rent and take your time.

De valuation of the Thai baht is also a possibility according to "experts",crystal ball anyone ?

[jacksam]

Ummmmm made big mistake in a post....

I meant to say "gold would be stupid..." Rather than gold would not be stupid.....

Anyway I'm sure people wouldn't be jumping into gold at present.......another 12 months or so maybe....let's see what happens with Europe also what will be demand for gold from China down the track.

[Kenny202]

Thanks for all the advice fellers. I think I'll just go over and sit tight. Problem is we live about 60km out from the city and renting a car is prohibitive and too far for a motor bike.

I have to say this is the only forum I have ever been on where there is 100% positive and constructive advice. Great to not have someone jump in correcting spelling errors or driving your question off topic completely with a side debate before even getting an answer. Great stuff!

[Tassie Norm]

Greasyfingers you are correct. As a retired Australian Customs Officer it is a simple document related to money laundering viz crime. Nothing to hide - no probs. And I note you mentioned FOREX. I have no financial interest in OZFOREX (except I use there facilicity for transfer of funds). Beats all the banks by miles -my personal experience. Hope this may help others - maybe I'll receive a Christmas Card from OZFOREX for my recommendation.

[shaurene]

The US$ is the problem also as the Thai Baht is pegged to the US and Aussie biggest exports are commodities like coal, iron ore ect and this stuff is going down all the time mainly due to less buying from the east. I took quite a few thousand Kiwi $ with me and declare it leaving Aussie and arriving in Thailand no problems and wait for a better rate if you can if not the best exchange places are Super Rich exchanges.

It is hard at the moment year ago I changed quite a few kiwi at 28. But now it is 25 all to do with the US$ they say the US$ is going to crash but I do not believe it will the US will not let that happen so not much luck for you over the next 6-12 months Mate.

[12DrinkMore]

The US$ is the problem also as the Thai Baht is pegged to the US and Aussie biggest exports are commodities like coal, iron ore ect and this stuff is going down all the time mainly due to less buying from the east. I took quite a few thousand Kiwi $ with me and declare it leaving Aussie and arriving in Thailand no problems and wait for a better rate if you can if not the best exchange places are Super Rich exchanges.

It is hard at the moment year ago I changed quite a few kiwi at 28. But now it is 25 all to do with the US$ they say the US$ is going to crash but I do not believe it will the US will not let that happen so not much luck for you over the next 6-12 months Mate.

The THB is not pegged to the USD.

The BoT maintains a "managed float" to a basket of currencies of trading partners and competitors.

[soalbundy]

The saving grace if you are converting A$ to Thai baht is that the Thai economy is not travelling well. A stock take on the failed, and stupid rice scheme, has revealed losses amounting to a trillion baht amongst other negative news.

That can't be waved away it has to be absorbed. The new regime now seems to be putting hurdles in front of foreign investment and Thai household debt has risen 45 % in the last 5 years my bank manager tells me.

So Thailand is still liveable for anyone seeking an alternative to living in Oz. I well know I certainly couldn't afford to live in Australia. Sydney now the 3 rd most expensive city in the world to buy real estate and live where did it all go wrong ?

Whatever you do don't going buying real estate here you could be in a dark place for a long time. Rent and take your time.

De valuation of the Thai baht is also a possibility according to "experts",crystal ball anyone ?

yeah right ''experts''. I meet financial experts every morning when i take a dump.