FPO projects 4 per cent GDP growth next year

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FPO projects 4 per cent GDP growth next year
By Digital Content



BANGKOK, Nov 21 -- Thailand's Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) projects that the Thai economy will expand by 4 per cent next year due to rising consumption in the private sector and government spending.

FPO Deputy Director-General Ekniti Nitithanprapas said in a seminar on the Thai economic and industrial outlook in the year ahead that the growth rate would result from increasing consumption in the private sector that should likely continue in the first quarter of next year, starting from the very low growth rate basis this year.

Additionally, he said, oil prices were declining partly because of Thailand's domestic energy price restructuring.

This will strengthen the public's purchasing power, which is also strengthened by the low unemployment rate of only 0.8 per cent.

Mr Ekniti warned that household debt caused installment burdens and that lower prices of farm products including natural rubber were negatively affecting the Thai economy.

What he thinks is driving the economy is government spending. He said that only 89 per cent of the 2014 budget had been disbursed due to past political problems.

The disbursement of the remaining budget in the present fiscal year and the spending of state enterprises would create considerable economic activity, Mr Ekniti said.

Energy expert Manoon Siriwan said the energy price restructuring would limit price reduction in only gasoline and gasohol. (MCOT online news)


-- TNA 2014-11-21

[uel1968]

Defo,not much rise due to tourism for sure,Thailand is finished,Vietnam,Cambodia,laos,maybe a little more welcoming!!!

[thesetat2013]

I predict snow in S. Thailand for Christmas.

My prediction will happen before the FPOs.

[RustBucket]

In your dreams.

It has been on a downward spiral all this year and they still claim growth despite all the negative indicators.

Next year will be no different.

Thailand is going into serious recession.

[shirtless]

By March next year when the optimism is proved to be misplaced we will see these numbers downgraded .

[CMBob]

I predict snow in S. Thailand for Christmas.

My prediction will happen before the FPOs.

Although highly unlikely, your prediction is at least possible! The FPO must have consulted a witch doctor.

[Anthony5]

Don't forget that the Tour de France, together with the Formula One race, will create a lot of revenue.

[Suffinator]

Is this before or after they change the Foreign Business Act and continue to kill off tourism so that foreigners finally get the message they are NOT wanted in Thailand?

[rickirs]

"What he thinks is driving the economy is government spending. He said that only 89 per cent of the 2014 budget had been disbursed due to past political problems.

The disbursement of the remaining budget in the present fiscal year and the spending of state enterprises would create considerable economic activity, Mr Ekniti said."

On the other hand you have opposing comments from Somkid Jatusripitak, an adviser to the NCPO, who is tasked to "help" Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, who is in charge of economic affairs, on "specific assigned issues." Somkid has stated that to shift the economy out of idle, the gross domestic product should grow on its fundamentals, not from an injection of capital (aka stimulus). Somkid does not believe in quick stimuli to revive the economy that Gen. Prayuth has been attempting to do since the coup in May 2014:

"GDP growth should be based on its capability to develop products in terms of innovation and strength, which could help the country compete with others. A capital injection could only boost the economy temporarily.

Academically Somkid is correct but from a practical viewpoint the Junta cannot afford the years necessary for more measured stimuli take grow the economy for fear it will lose its power over economic decisions. I think Ekniti realizes the importance for the Junta to get a quick economic recovery before 2016 to cover the economic cost to the nation for the anti-government protests and coup as a way to legitimize continued military governance of Thailand beyond 2015.

Prayuth has said he only wants to be in power for one year. He may get his wish.

[Alwyn]

4% GDP growth today... Within the past week we've heard tourism down by a rather large amount, exports tanking (particularly cars although Ebola is to blame for that apparently), imports increasing, debt increasing where is the 4% growth coming from as all figure seem to be down. Oil prices declining partly because of Thailand's domestic energy pricing... Nothing to do with the fact that oil prices have dropped 25% since June?

[IamNoone88]

Perhaps a typo. 0.4 percent would be closer to the actual reality. Prime pumping the economy takes time, personal debt remains high and fdi and tourism have missed target. Importantly confidence remains low. Its pretty already over for 2015.