Three-way strife may be likely now

[Lite Beer]

EDITORIAL
Three-way strife may be likely now
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Prayut must not let things deteriorate

Some used to say it could not get any worse than Thais being divided to the brink of civil war. The coup in May, according to its leader and interim Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, was meant to pre-empt what could be a political bloodbath. First there was hope in the wake of the coup, but with the military junta struggling to keep public faith, new fears are looming. Thais can basically split into three camps instead of two currently. That will make national strife a lot more complicated, if not worse.

The latest case of media intimidation is undermining Prayut’s pledge to bring about genuine reform. But what happened at the Thai PBS is not the only hindrance to efforts to bring political peace to Thailand. Prayut’s interim government has alienated a lot of supporters with energy policies that seem to lean toward big money rather than public interests. Anti-corruption promises have been in danger of falling through, although the jury is very much out on how the controversial rice scheme of the Yingluck administration is addressed. The red shirts are not happy, and neither are the yellow shirts. Those in between may still be willing to give Prayut a chance, but scepticism is eating into their patience.

If Thailand is politically split into "three kingdoms", romance is out of question. Yet the possibility of a three-camp political landscape that is looking increasingly likely and it will be anything but healthy. It used to be a pro- and anti-Thaksin divide but a third movement may soon emerge and say no to both the military and tainted democracy. If reform is hard when Thais are split down the middle, imagine the difficulties a three-way strife can present.

During the political turmoil last year and earlier this year, the military escaped blame. But the Armed Forces stuck its neck out with the coup and now will have to bear the brunt of criticism if the situation worsens. Much depends on what Prayut does next, as he now wields the biggest political power.

Make no mistake, genuine reform means he’s bound to galvanise many foes and lose many friends. But if he is sincere and carry out his agenda with integrity, it will be his best protection. Prayut’s relatively high approval rating in the aftermath of the coup did not reflect a pro-military or pro-dictatorship stand among Thais, but it showed how much hope politically weary Thais had for positive changes. Intimidating the media and stirring doubts regarding such mammoth issues as energy and corruption eradication are certainly not the way to go. Reform is painful, but the pain must be where it’s worth it.

Vested interests groups are abundant in Thailand, and many of them are internationally connected. Speculation has already begun about those at the very top of Thailand’s political war successfully dividing the cake, leaving the "colours" to continue their ideological fight. It’s this kind of speculation, and the likes of the Thai PBS incidents, that will hasten the formation of the "third movement". Like the anti-Thaksin camp, they won’t accept the Shinawatras’ return to power. But like the pro-Thaksin camp, they will also find the military playing a leading role in politics unacceptable.

In normal political circumstances, such a third movement can create a healthy environment in which everybody is kept on his toes. In Thai circumstances, where Prayut is reigning supreme, it can make his "reform" agenda a lot more difficult and contribute to a major deadlock. With Thailand’s neighbouring countries preparing themselves economically for the upcoming era of the Asean Economic Community, Thais will practically limp into the new regional territory.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Three-way-strife-may-be-likely-now-30248300.html

-- The Nation 2014-11-22

[Mango Bob]

It should read Prayut must not let things deteriorate any more than it has already.

[NeverSure]

To me it seems that one color of shirt has been exchanged for another with no real reforms. Where is the rooting out of corruption? Where is the change in education to bring power to the masses? Where is the change in the international commerce model to bring growth to the economy? Where are the changes to make Thailand competitive with neighbors - even lowly Vietnam or Cambodia much less Singapore?

Again, I don't see any fundamental reforms unless the color of shirt in charge is a reform.

[whybother]

If he's making both the red shirts and the yellow shirts unhappy, he must be doing something right.

[BritManToo]

And there was me thinking 3 way split would be, red, yellow, muslim.

[The stuttering parrot]

Just for a moment I thought the nation had grown a set but when it mentioned fake polls integrity and sincere in regards to the general and the junta the they lost me.

The writer conveniently leaves out words like bullying harassment suppression and intimidation but then again the attitude adjustment police are hovering.

[ramrod711]

Six months isn't long enough to turn a Country around, I don't think it's enough time to judge the progress. Certain upcoming rulings from the government will demonstrate whether they are sincere or not. One thing I am sure about is that I don't want to see a return to this.

[robblok]

If he's making both the red shirts and the yellow shirts unhappy, he must be doing something right.

Not exactly true but at least you cant accuse him of favoritism.

I liked the guy and the coup but i certainly dont agree with everything.

But there will never be a political party that i agree with 100%

Unless i become a dictator and decide it all. (Joke)

[comeondoit]

It is simple, three parties are better than 2, in a real democracy it needs more than a 2 party system. it is the balance of power and a working control system which is needed, but you cannot get it if the freedom of expression is not guaranteed

[chainarong]

It is doubtful that anything will save Thailand , the position was getting critical and with no alternative the Coup was probably the best course of action, however how the Junta leaders handle the day to day and future debates and reforms is a matter for them to sit down and plan , at this time the wheels are starting to fall off the cart as they are slowly returning to the old pattern of the Thai politician, whatever the outcome, the country will still be divided with some hate meshed in for General Prayuth, the real worry develops when the Junta stays longer than planned.

[Tatsujin]

It is simple, three parties are better than 2, in a real democracy it needs more than a 2 party system. it is the balance of power and a working control system which is needed, but you cannot get it if the freedom of expression is not guaranteed

Yup, that 3-party system, Democracy, the balance of power, etc are working out real well over the other side of the world currently ... and just as badly as in my home country.

As for what they stand for, well, just take a look at Colorado State Legislator, Gordon Klingenschmitt (anti-gay, anti-everything), who campaigned (partly) on his belief that Obama is possessed by a demon ... and he won. (Go check the Colbert Report video on YouTube).

I thought he was deluded, but as for those that voted for him ... speechless ... I'm not sure who is more insane, these morons that "represent the people" (get paid by big business to promote their agenda's) or those that actually vote for them.

[MisterTee]

Six months isn't long enough to turn a Country around, I don't think it's enough time to judge the progress. Certain upcoming rulings from the government will demonstrate whether they are sincere or not. One thing I am sure about is that I don't want to see a return to this.

Agreed... give the government a chance.

Nothing could be worse than a return to organized criminality on a massive scale.

[mojorison]

What a crock of BS. More divisions will inevitably lead to a healthier democracy. That's always been the problem that there has only ever been 2 parties. Usually coalitions made up of about 20 fair weather pissant parties. Get some more objectivity into the mix, and it will be much harder to simply do deals and maintain the tainted status quo. This is good.

[whybother]

What a crock of BS. More divisions will inevitably lead to a healthier democracy. That's always been the problem that there has only ever been 2 parties. Usually coalitions made up of about 20 fair weather pissant parties. Get some more objectivity into the mix, and it will be much harder to simply do deals and maintain the tainted status quo. This is good.

Thai governments have nearly always been coalitions. (excluding military of course)

Thaksin's first government was made through a coalition. The PPP government (2007 election) was through a coalition. Yingluck got a majority of seats, but still included other parties. Probably the only government that hasn't been a coalition is Thaksin's second government. Even with large majority he still called elections after only 12 months. Before TRT gobbled up a heap of north and north eastern regional parties there was never a party big enough to govern in their own right.

[BritTim]

I cannot imagine, under current conditions, the urban elite agreeing a return to democracy while the rural majority wants policies that favor them. The current martial law regime is the only practical alternative. We shall need to see what happens as the support for martial law wanes over the next few years. Perhaps, a consensus for a return to democracy will eventually emerge, perhaps with constitutional constraints on what the elected government is allowed to do..

[whybother]

I cannot imagine, under current conditions, the urban elite agreeing a return to democracy while the rural majority wants policies that favor them. The current martial law regime is the only practical alternative. We shall need to see what happens as the support for martial law wanes over the next few years. Perhaps, a consensus for a return to democracy will eventually emerge, perhaps with constitutional constraints on what the elected government is allowed to do..

Next FEW years? If martial law isn't dropped in about the next 3-6 months or elections don't happen in the next 12-18 months, there will be protesters in the streets. The silent majority who are now accepting of the government, won't continue that way if things don't keep moving forward.

[mojorison]

What a crock of BS. More divisions will inevitably lead to a healthier democracy. That's always been the problem that there has only ever been 2 parties. Usually coalitions made up of about 20 fair weather pissant parties. Get some more objectivity into the mix, and it will be much harder to simply do deals and maintain the tainted status quo. This is good.

Thai governments have nearly always been coalitions. (excluding military of course)

Thaksin's first government was made through a coalition. The PPP government (2007 election) was through a coalition. Yingluck got a majority of seats, but still included other parties. Probably the only government that hasn't been a coalition is Thaksin's second government. Even with large majority he still called elections after only 12 months. Before TRT gobbled up a heap of north and north eastern regional parties there was never a party big enough to govern in their own right.

I've got no problems with coalition govt. However when there are 10+ parties in the coalition, who swap sides depending on what's on offer, then it is beyond a joke. 3 parties, with different ideologies is a good development though.

[rickirs]

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And there was me thinking 3 way split would be, red, yellow, muslim.

Maybe it's red, yellow, and purple (color of royalty)

[nong38]

Prayuth is discovering that a military timetable is not the same as political one, he is also finding out that some people are not doing what he thought they were, a classic case is the ever popular lottery, the tickets were supposed to come to 80 bts and they did for a while now they are back at 110 and nobody noticed?

This running the country is not as easy as it looked when he was a General.

For sure the people have been patient so far but I wonder how long that will last and will we see the other political groups looking to exploit situations? I do hope that is not the case, but, Prayuth does need to get things moving, the reforms need to be seen to be being put in place, the reforms need to be accepted by one and all.

There is till much to be done and we are 6 months down the road, are we on track or do we think we are?

I hope the people give him time to carry out his plans and that after that time we will see a different Thailand emerge. It is probably asking to much to envisage a startlingly different democracy but lets hope for some improvement that can be worked on. Education is a much bigger problem, he will meet much resistance here from the old school who dont want to change the system, but, change it must to prepare the young for the world of the future not the world of the past or the country will be left behind, we all know what the problems are in the system but in a system where everyone passes its difficult to accept that change is required for a future outside of the borders where a "different" type of English is used, where modern business methods are employed, where there are different ways of doing things which are easier and more efficient.

Prayuth has big job on to enforce these changes to people who live in their own world and cannot themselves be bothered to look at change, I wish him well but the job is getting more and more difficult now.

Edited November 22, 2014 by nong38

[HUAHIN62]

Six months isn't long enough to turn a Country around, I don't think it's enough time to judge the progress. Certain upcoming rulings from the government will demonstrate whether they are sincere or not. One thing I am sure about is that I don't want to see a return to this.

Agreed... give the government a chance.

Nothing could be worse than a return to organized criminality on a massive scale.

After the 2006 coup corruption peaked and its on its way up again (the oil block allocation and mega projects thats been approved without any transparency) . The coup is the worst thing that could have happened to Thailand as the junta will not leave before the big change has happened and it could take another 5 years or more. By that time the country will be on the edge of a civil war. The economy will be run down with atleast 4 of the next 5 years spend in recession if the world economy maintain its present course. The military have never been able to unite the country, they have only devided it (you can go back to the 70's). The coup was not about reform, nor fighting corruption nor stability, it was and is about being in power when the change takes place. For those who are being fooled by the media and hollow words spoken by semi-politicians, please wake up to reality.

[binjalin]

Six months isn't long enough to turn a Country around, I don't think it's enough time to judge the progress. Certain upcoming rulings from the government will demonstrate whether they are sincere or not. One thing I am sure about is that I don't want to see a return to this.

Agreed... give the government a chance.

Nothing could be worse than a return to organized criminality on a massive scale.

After the 2006 coup corruption peaked and its on its way up again (the oil block allocation and mega projects thats been approved without any transparency) . The coup is the worst thing that could have happened to Thailand as the junta will not leave before the big change has happened and it could take another 5 years or more. By that time the country will be on the edge of a civil war. The economy will be run down with atleast 4 of the next 5 years spend in recession if the world economy maintain its present course. The military have never been able to unite the country, they have only devided it (you can go back to the 70's). The coup was not about reform, nor fighting corruption nor stability, it was and is about being in power when the change takes place. For those who are being fooled by the media and hollow words spoken by semi-politicians, please wake up to reality.

this is the TRUTH we cannot speak about...

[rickirs]

I am sorry General Prayuth, they just do not understand.

[jayboy]

If he's making both the red shirts and the yellow shirts unhappy, he must be doing something right.

While taking into account your uncritical devotion to the General, your statement is just childish.Most Thais are neither hardcore red or yellows; it is they who have become disillusioned.More critically in my view though not mentioned in the article are the elite internal divisions.

[Wilsonandson]

No one said it would be easy to solve all the nations problems at once. Given time and input from all sides of the political divide, then the country can move forward. There is no time limit but if everyone cooperates then surely new democratic reforms can be implemented and fresh elections held. Thailand is in a stable situation now and is ready to move on to the next phase, reform. Be patient not unproductive.

[whybother]

If he's making both the red shirts and the yellow shirts unhappy, he must be doing something right.

While taking into account your uncritical devotion to the General, your statement is just childish.Most Thais are neither hardcore red or yellows; it is they who have become disillusioned.More critically in my view though not mentioned in the article are the elite internal divisions.

While taking into account your condescending BS, did I say anything about ALL Thais?

[Wilsonandson]

Elite, internal divisions? So the article should read four-way strife? More info pls.

[rickirs]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Prayuth is discovering that a military timetable is not the same as political one, he is also finding out that some people are not doing what he thought they were, a classic case is the ever popular lottery, the tickets were supposed to come to 80 bts and they did for a while now they are back at 110 and nobody noticed?

This running the country is not as easy as it looked when he was a General.

For sure the people have been patient so far but I wonder how long that will last and will we see the other political groups looking to exploit situations? I do hope that is not the case, but, Prayuth does need to get things moving, the reforms need to be seen to be being put in place, the reforms need to be accepted by one and all.

There is till much to be done and we are 6 months down the road, are we on track or do we think we are?

I hope the people give him time to carry out his plans and that after that time we will see a different Thailand emerge. It is probably asking to much to envisage a startlingly different democracy but lets hope for some improvement that can be worked on. Education is a much bigger problem, he will meet much resistance here from the old school who dont want to change the system, but, change it must to prepare the young for the world of the future not the world of the past or the country will be left behind, we all know what the problems are in the system but in a system where everyone passes its difficult to accept that change is required for a future outside of the borders where a "different" type of English is used, where modern business methods are employed, where there are different ways of doing things which are easier and more efficient.

Prayuth has big job on to enforce these changes to people who live in their own world and cannot themselves be bothered to look at change, I wish him well but the job is getting more and more difficult now.

"Prayuth has big job on to enforce these changes to people"

When change is willingly accepted, it will be embraced. But when change is enforced by military might, it will be resisted. Prayuth's initiated change as he foresaw it, motivated it through his NCPO controlled NLA, NRC and CDC, and will enforce it upon the unwilling population. And once again we'll hear him say, "They do not understand" when his change is resisted.

[jayboy]

If he's making both the red shirts and the yellow shirts unhappy, he must be doing something right.

While taking into account your uncritical devotion to the General, your statement is just childish.Most Thais are neither hardcore red or yellows; it is they who have become disillusioned.More critically in my view though not mentioned in the article are the elite internal divisions.

While taking into account your condescending BS, did I say anything about ALL Thais?

Did I?

[Thai at Heart]

To me it seems that one color of shirt has been exchanged for another with no real reforms. Where is the rooting out of corruption? Where is the change in education to bring power to the masses? Where is the change in the international commerce model to bring growth to the economy? Where are the changes to make Thailand competitive with neighbors - even lowly Vietnam or Cambodia much less Singapore?

Again, I don't see any fundamental reforms unless the color of shirt in charge is a reform.

This was absolutely inevitable. Thais don't want to change, they just want to change who sits at the top table depending on their own pockets.

So few Thais understand public service and sacrifice, that it is impossible for them to act solely for the good of the majority. They act perosnally, then for family, then for friends and then for the rest of the people.

They are incapable to rewrite a constitution to serve the country because it impinges on them personally.

[whybother]

If he's making both the red shirts and the yellow shirts unhappy, he must be doing something right.

While taking into account your uncritical devotion to the General, your statement is just childish.Most Thais are neither hardcore red or yellows; it is they who have become disillusioned.More critically in my view though not mentioned in the article are the elite internal divisions.

While taking into account your condescending BS, did I say anything about ALL Thais?

Did I?

I didn't even say anything about MOST Thais.