Will Pattaya Be Bereft Of Russians?

[Naam]

reading comments of resident experts and prophets is always extremely interesting

And you are not one of them Naam?

i don't make forecasts, i state hard facts and submit evidence when required. having said so... i would like to add (in my well known modest way) that the financial expertise of my left pinky toe exceeds the combined expertise of 90% who "contribute" in Thaivisa's financial threads.

[paddyjenkins]

To repeat what i said on this thread a couple of weeks ago, the number of Russians visiting Pattaya is definitely falling as a result of the weak Ruble. Any agreement to fix the price of hotel rooms and airfares in Rubles will only have been for a short period. Certainly no fresh bookings at previous prices, the prices in Rubles will definitely be rising and some operators may well even refuse to accept Rubles. Make no mistake about any of this, no matter what nonsense certain self professed financial experts may claim on this forum. And If some dodgy travel agent tries to convince you otherwise, suspect consumption of excess vodka.

http://www.businessinsider.sg/russian-tourists-market-slumps-in-thailand-2014-12/

Edited December 19, 2014 by paddyjenkins

[tropo]

To repeat what i said on this thread a couple of weeks ago, the number of Russians visiting Pattaya is definitely falling as a result of the weak Ruble.

"Weak Ruble" is an understatement. It is currently worth half the baht it was worth in January 2014 and even dropped below that this week.

[ExPratt]

Still nearly 2 (1.977) to 1 baht and that's the actually market rate , start going to Money changers or using the Atm and it'll be worse

http://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/

[whitemouse]

The Ruble has lost 21% against the USD in the last 2 days... Over 50% in this year alone... Funny, because it's the USD that should be tanking and not the Ruble... As long as the central bankers can print $$$, they will, to keep the derivatives bubble from popping... This too shall change...

for the record: the Ruble gained 11.6% vs. US-Dollar in the last 1½ days

USDRUB.JPG

There are lies, damned lies and statistics... Take you pick....

You know as well as I do that this move in the RUB was based on the short squeeze when they announced the rate hike to 17.5%...

http://wbponline.com/Articles/View/38286/usd-rub-ruble-jumps-for-2nd-straight-day-on-verbal-assurances

Moscow - The ruble headed for a much needed two-day gain on Monday, recovering from a three month slump that led to a 21% depreciation against the dollar, falling 7.1% during the last week alone.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30490082

Russia's central bank made a drastic interest rate move overnight, raising its key rate from 10.5% to 17%.

The bank said the move was to try to ease the rouble's recent fall in value.

The rouble has lost almost 50% against the US dollar this year as falling oil prices and Western sanctions continue to weigh on the country's economy.

what i know "dàmn well" is that the Ruble appreciated from 16dec 13.05 GMT till 18dec 11.50 Thai time exactly 22.47%

case closed

Time to buy rouble now then, Naam?

It gained within few hours, after INSANE and desperate interest rate adjustment, so the rising trend of Rouble surely will continue, yes?

[Loptr]

The Ruble has lost 21% against the USD in the last 2 days... Over 50% in this year alone... Funny, because it's the USD that should be tanking and not the Ruble... As long as the central bankers can print $$$, they will, to keep the derivatives bubble from popping... This too shall change...

please show me one currency that did not tank vs. USD in 2014

Thanks for proving my point...

It's not hard to be top dog when you control the global financial system, can print $$$ at will, can impose sanctions and embargo any country that doesn't toe the line of western hegemony... It is the USD that should be tanking instead of the RUB, but the central bankers have gone all in with their plans for world domination...

I make $$$ on the USDX trade myself, but when the central banks and BIS can manipulate all markets through derivatives to move the markets where they want, it's only a matter of time before the SHTF...

How long do you think the west can keep up this charade before Russia, China and India tell the west to FO? Not long by the looks of it...

Russia to launch replacement for SWIFT system in 2015

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-central-bank-to-launch-swift-replacement-in-2015/510980.html

China enters currency swap deal with Russia

http://sputniknews.com/business/20141218/1015972496.html

I hesitate to share this, but considering the speaker is a former Asst Secretary of the US Treasury, perhaps hearing it from the horse's mouth will add some credibility to the discussion...

Edited December 19, 2014 by Loptr

[Loptr]

There are lies, damned lies and statistics... Take you pick....

You know as well as I do that this move in the RUB was based on the short squeeze when they announced the rate hike to 17.5%...

http://wbponline.com/Articles/View/38286/usd-rub-ruble-jumps-for-2nd-straight-day-on-verbal-assurances

Moscow - The ruble headed for a much needed two-day gain on Monday, recovering from a three month slump that led to a 21% depreciation against the dollar, falling 7.1% during the last week alone.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30490082

Russia's central bank made a drastic interest rate move overnight, raising its key rate from 10.5% to 17%.

The bank said the move was to try to ease the rouble's recent fall in value.

The rouble has lost almost 50% against the US dollar this year as falling oil prices and Western sanctions continue to weigh on the country's economy.

what i know "dàmn well" is that the Ruble appreciated from 16dec 13.05 GMT till 18dec 11.50 Thai time exactly 22.47%

case closed

No, it's not... I concede that I missed the time frame... It was not in the previous 2 days...

Now check Dec 15th to the 16th... RUB dropped 24.3%...

I was traveling for 30+ hours beginning on the 16th from the USSA to Thailand and lost 2 days...

Edited December 19, 2014 by Loptr

[Loptr]

reading comments of resident experts and prophets is always extremely interesting

I presume you fit in that category too...

[petercool]

off topic posts removed

[Naam]

No, it's not... I concede that I missed the time frame... It was not in the previous 2 days...

Now check Dec 15th to the 16th... RUB dropped 24.3%...

I was traveling for 30+ hours beginning on the 16th from the USSA to Thailand and lost 2 days...

i'm sorry for your loss!

[thailiketoo]

For heaven's sake! Putin invaded Ukraine, sanctions were imposed, then the price of iol dropped.

I believe there is another thread running about Russian tourism to Thailand being 70% off and didn't someone in this thread say not to worry as the Russians are still coming. Who is correct?

[tropo]

I reckon a year or two of very low tourist numbers could possibly improve Pattaya in the long run. It could serve as an attitude adjustment to Thai business owners who take foreigners for granted and treat them poorly. It could also weed out the poorly run businesses. As an expat I wouldn't mind at all.

[thailiketoo]

I reckon a year or two of very low tourist numbers could possibly improve Pattaya in the long run. It could serve as an attitude adjustment to Thai business owners who take foreigners for granted and treat them poorly. It could also weed out the poorly run businesses. As an expat I wouldn't mind at all.

Has this ever in your experience happened before (attitude adjustment)?

[tropo]

I reckon a year or two of very low tourist numbers could possibly improve Pattaya in the long run. It could serve as an attitude adjustment to Thai business owners who take foreigners for granted and treat them poorly. It could also weed out the poorly run businesses. As an expat I wouldn't mind at all.

Has this ever in your experience happened before (attitude adjustment)?

I've seen attitudes worsen over the 9 years I've been in town, but there hasn't been a major downturn over that time.

[CarlTyson]

For heaven's sake! Putin invaded Ukraine, sanctions were imposed, then the price of iol dropped.

I believe there is another thread running about Russian tourism to Thailand being 70% off and didn't someone in this thread say not to worry as the Russians are still coming. Who is correct?

The Hotel Association reported 70% down and that was before the recent Ruble drop.

[champers]

I'm just back from 2 weeks in Patts and a week elsewhere in Thailand. I think there still are plenty of Russians about but they seem to be mostly living on a diet of coconuts and banana pancakes . What I also noticed was an increase in Chinese visitors, both in groups on busses and as couples. There seems to be a lot more signage in Chinese and reading the Bangkok Post it does seem that tourism from China will increase dramatically over the next few years. I would regret any reduction of tourists from anywhere; Russia included; but I do wonder about what the future holds. Incidentally, I spent a day in old Sukothai and didn't see a Russian or Chinese there.

[thaibeachlovers]

I'm just back from 2 weeks in Patts and a week elsewhere in Thailand. I think there still are plenty of Russians about but they seem to be mostly living on a diet of coconuts and banana pancakes . What I also noticed was an increase in Chinese visitors, both in groups on busses and as couples. There seems to be a lot more signage in Chinese and reading the Bangkok Post it does seem that tourism from China will increase dramatically over the next few years. I would regret any reduction of tourists from anywhere; Russia included; but I do wonder about what the future holds. Incidentally, I spent a day in old Sukothai and didn't see a Russian or Chinese there.

Prices in Pattaya have indeed risen because Russians have been willing to pay more. If they can no longer do so, it will hopefully force all businesses to reduce their inflated prices.

It would be interesting to know if Russian money is the cause of such atrocities as the ghastly car parking building at Bali Hai and the view blocking skyscraper, and if it was, will the lack of such prevent even more mistakes?

[thaibeachlovers]

I reckon a year or two of very low tourist numbers could possibly improve Pattaya in the long run. It could serve as an attitude adjustment to Thai business owners who take foreigners for granted and treat them poorly. It could also weed out the poorly run businesses. As an expat I wouldn't mind at all.

Has this ever in your experience happened before (attitude adjustment)?

In my experience there has never been a significant fall off to cause such an attitude adjustment previously. The nearest that I remember was when Taksin came to power and tried to destroy the farang night scene. That caused a significant increase in petty crime as many Thais became unemployed.

[MZurf]

I reckon a year or two of very low tourist numbers could possibly improve Pattaya in the long run. It could serve as an attitude adjustment to Thai business owners who take foreigners for granted and treat them poorly. It could also weed out the poorly run businesses. As an expat I wouldn't mind at all.

I wish this was true but that requires admitting to yourself that you made a mistake and correcting your behavior accordingly, and in my years of living in Thailand I have found that this is not the strongest of Thai cultural traits.