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Academics warn of impact of dwindling workforce on economic growth

BANGKOK, 15 Dec 2014 (NNT) - The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) has revealed a concerning finding that Thailand may face a shortage of people at work in the near future.

NESDB Secretary-General and Transport Minister, Akom Termpittayapaisit, said that, in the next 26 years, the number of senior citizens would reach 20.5 million or 32% of the total population while the size of people in working age would be smaller with 35.18 million, a sharp drop from 2010’s 42.7 million.

Mr. Akom said that the dwindling working-age population would directly affect the economic growth in agricultural, industrial and service sectors, adding that the increased number of senior citizen may create a financial burden to the Government in the future.

Meanwhile, Chairman of the NESDB’s Sub-committee on population policy and planning, Kosit Panpiemrat, emphasized the severity of the same problem, saying that the number of children and people in the workforce has declined while the number of senior citizen continues to rise. He said the predicament would eventually post a threat to the nation’s growth, while proposing to improve the quality of education to strengthen the quality of citizens in order to offset the imbalance in demographic structure.

Mr. Kosit also stated that officials should promote saving among the workforce to ensure sufficient financial support during their final years.

A Mahidol University professor stated that Generation Y, or those aged between 25 to 35 who account for 27% of the total Thai population, have tendencies to delay the period when they get married and have children. The professor said the phenomena would affect the number of workforce in the future as this group of people is responsible for generating the new batch of population and human resources.


-- NNT 2014-12-15

[iReason]

"..proposing to improve the quality of education to strengthen the quality of citizens...

Mr Sec. General; I suggest you certainly focus on that.

"...generating the new batch of population and human resources."

Cold.

[jaltsc]

"A Mahidol University professor stated that Generation Y, or those aged between 25 to 35 who account for 27% of the total Thai population, have tendencies to delay the period when they get married and have children."

From what I have seen in the agricultural workforce and in the population in general, marriage does not appear to be a prerequisite for having children. Perhaps marriages are being delayed (or eliminated entirely), but the babies keep on coming, and way before the parents reach the age of 25. I believe if you throw in that cohort, the findings would be somewhat different.

Mr. Akom said that the dwindling working-age population would directly affect the economic growth in agricultural, industrial and service sectors..."

The true reason for a shortage of people in the workforce is that the population is not adequately educated and prepared to enter the fields encompassing modern technology. With the advances in manufacturing, the number of workers is not as much a factor as the ability of a single individual who possesses the technical skills to operate machines that do the work of many traditional workers. It will be other countries with similar demographics to that of Thailand, but with better trained work forces that will succeed economically.

[FangFerang]

This is a worldwide problem. The S Koreans said they considered it a greater threat to security than N Korea.

Says a lot, but not much is easily done. We cannot make people have large families, and there is no support structure for it anyway.

This one is a genuine ticking time bomb of thermonuclear proportions.

Edited December 15, 2014 by FangFerang

[EricBerg]

Dark times ahead globally. This makes me remember the scifi movie Soylent Green: Old age people there in an overpopulated world with hardly any nature left could opt for a good time before ending their life and after that being processed in the food industry.

[daveAustin]

Give the old people two options; work for money or free accommodation in a North Korean-style gulag.

Regards dwindling workforce, just make that office three-man, foot-shuffling job into a one-man job like the rest of the world. Plenty of spare people. These stores like HomePro have way too many staff on commission, often being the cause of congestion amid the aisles.

[wabothai]

Thailand, either you join western nations or China, up to you. You will never make it on your own because you refuse to listen, yes I am a concerned cit....oh no, farang.

[12DrinkMore]

Give the old people two options; work for money or free accommodation in a North Korean-style gulag.

Regards dwindling workforce, just make that office three-man, foot-shuffling job into a one-man job like the rest of the world. Plenty of spare people. These stores like HomePro have way too many staff on commission, often being the cause of congestion amid the aisles.

Are they on commission?

Now I understand why they rush around trying to sell me stuff.

In most stores dealing with the customer comes behind sleep, preening, mobile phone, chatting and doing nothing.

[elgordo38]

This is a worldwide problem. The S Koreans said they considered it a greater threat to security than N Korea.

Says a lot, but not much is easily done. We cannot make people have large families, and there is no support structure for it anyway.

This one is a genuine ticking time bomb of thermonuclear proportions.

Why the panic. Robots will replace 48% of jobs in the near future. They work 24 hrs a day 7 days a week need 5 baht a day worth of electric work in the dark never get sick never get holidays. If that does not work import more workers from Burma, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam or even Chinese rural folk. Pump all them cars and other products out but wait who will be making money to pay the bank loans to buy em? Noboooody

[elgordo38]

This is a worldwide problem. The S Koreans said they considered it a greater threat to security than N Korea.

Says a lot, but not much is easily done. We cannot make people have large families, and there is no support structure for it anyway.

This one is a genuine ticking time bomb of thermonuclear proportions.

Why the panic. Robots will replace 48% of jobs in the near future. They work 24 hrs a day 7 days a week need 5 baht a day worth of electric work in the dark never get sick never get holidays. If that does not work import more workers from Burma, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam or even Chinese rural folk. Pump all them cars and other products out but wait who will be making money to pay the bank loans to buy em? Noboooody

Thailand may even have a RoboCop someday.

[asdecas]

This is a worldwide problem. The S Koreans said they considered it a greater threat to security than N Korea.

Says a lot, but not much is easily done. We cannot make people have large families, and there is no support structure for it anyway.

This one is a genuine ticking time bomb of thermonuclear proportions.

Why the panic. Robots will replace 48% of jobs in the near future. They work 24 hrs a day 7 days a week need 5 baht a day worth of electric work in the dark never get sick never get holidays. If that does not work import more workers from Burma, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam or even Chinese rural folk. Pump all them cars and other products out but wait who will be making money to pay the bank loans to buy em? Noboooody

Thailand may even have a RoboCop someday.

It does already. It's named "Booreeocop" and it is programmed to home in on farangs on Lower Sukhumvit.

[bangon04]

I am a bit confused. Won't the implementation of the AEC and free movement of labour make Thailand a very attractive option for several other nations - inflated salaries for sleeping all day etc compared to what other countries can offer.

Or is Thailand assuming that it will continue the same way as usual and face a shortage of legal workers?

[Krataiboy]

Don't worry about it. In a decade or two, robots will be doing most of the work and we'll all be living like lords on the produce of their labour.

Well, that's what one of the one-percenters tells me, at least.

[fgmr]

"A Mahidol University professor stated that Generation Y, or those aged between 25 to 35 who account for 27% of the total Thai population, have tendencies to delay the period when they get married and have children."

From what I have seen in the agricultural workforce and in the population in general, marriage does not appear to be a prerequisite for having children. Perhaps marriages are being delayed (or eliminated entirely), but the babies keep on coming, and way before the parents reach the age of 25. I believe if you throw in that cohort, the findings would be somewhat different.

Mr. Akom said that the dwindling working-age population would directly affect the economic growth in agricultural, industrial and service sectors..."

The true reason for a shortage of people in the workforce is that the population is not adequately educated and prepared to enter the fields encompassing modern technology. With the advances in manufacturing, the number of workers is not as much a factor as the ability of a single individual who possesses the technical skills to operate machines that do the work of many traditional workers. It will be other countries with similar demographics to that of Thailand, but with better trained work forces that will succeed economically.

I would add to the above by stating that as long as wages remain low there is little incentive for capital investment in modern machinery whether it is in agriculture or manufacturing. The appropriate training will align to operational need.

There needs to a balance for incentives between both labour (USA stop corrupting my language ) and capital .

[thailiketoo]

Australia ships immigrants to other countries why not America ship Mexicans to Thailand. They like spicy food and have big families and they are good workers.

[selftaopath]

I don't see what difference this will make. Ageism is alive and well in Thailand. Maybe they are concerned the older people who cut rice and sugar cane will not be available. Then what?

[JimHuaHin]

Maybe some Thai academics need to get out more (I am a retired academic and have taught social sciences at Mahidol University).

Go to the shopping centres and see all the employees in shops waiting for customers to come in. At many big stores there are more staff than customers at any hour of any day.

There is no labour shortage in Thailand now, if the existing Thai employed work force was more efficiently used, and if unskilled Thais were willing to do the dirty low paid work that Burmese, Cambodia, etc. workers now do here.

[seajae]

half the problem is that after "graduating" uni they simply think that work is menial and below them. I have 2 males opposite our house living with their parents because they refuse to work as they have "qualifications" and think that no job is good enough for them. Until these idiots get the idea that they are special out of their heads nothing will change.

[thailiketoo]

Maybe some Thai academics need to get out more (I am a retired academic and have taught social sciences at Mahidol University).

Go to the shopping centres and see all the employees in shops waiting for customers to come in. At many big stores there are more staff than customers at any hour of any day.

There is no labour shortage in Thailand now, if the existing Thai employed work force was more efficiently used, and if unskilled Thais were willing to do the dirty low paid work that Burmese, Cambodia, etc. workers now do here.

The same thing could have been said on the cotton plantations that employed slaves if you get my meaning.

[phuketandsee]

I am a bit confused. Won't the implementation of the AEC and free movement of labour make Thailand a very attractive option for several other nations - inflated salaries for sleeping all day etc compared to what other countries can offer.

Or is Thailand assuming that it will continue the same way as usual and face a shortage of legal workers?

There is no free movement of labor under the AEC. And Thailand is the 2nd most protectionist member after The Philippines.