RT @HaidiLun: Airbus on #QZ8501: 6,000+ A320 aircraft in service with 300+ operators. Missing plane had 23K hours, 13,600 flights. http://twitter.com/HaidiLun/status/549132374974267392/photo/1

A loud BANG .....

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/air-asia-qz8501-loud-bang-heard-by-fishermen-over-belitung-island-1481094

anyone else starting to think de ja vu, it's been 7hours now has it? Still hoping for the best but realistically speaking, it's a minor hope at this point.

It might look like a short distance from the coast of Java, but they still have to mobilise ships and get sufficient confirmation from the air that the 'wreckage' in question could be from the missing aircraft. The Indonesians havent shown themselves to be the world's best at dealing with aviation disasters, sadly, but they really made a meal of this incident:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garuda_Indonesia_Flight_200

Let's hope for a better readiness level in this case.

Yes, let's hope so , but the fact that it took 5 hours to accept Singapore's offer of the C130s is not encouraging. They could/should have been in the air in 10 minutes.

RT @SkyNewsBreak: Foreign and Commonwealth Office say the next of kin of Briton on board missing flight #QZ8501 have been informed

Terrible tragedy .No distress call which is strange as they are saying the pilot wanted to go up 6000 feet to avoid weather, so obviously bad weather is the suspected cause of the "Disappearance" at the moment

The area in question -- with the island in centre

http://skyvector.com/?ll=-2.745721,107.754917&chart=301&zoom=3

Michael Bachelard told Fairfax Media it'll still be a while before SAR boats get to the area:

"We just heard they are still eight hours ... away from that part of the ocean because the sea is quite rough today." /@Fairfax Media

Speculation about air speed indications need to be a little bit wary, there are a lot of different interpretations regarding speed -

It is a bit more involved than it first appears.

See here, and let's not give up hope!

http://www.tscm.com/mach-as.pdf

Briton on board missing AirAsia flight - UK Foreign Office

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30615389

anyone else starting to think de ja vu, it's been 7hours now has it? Still hoping for the best but realistically speaking, it's a minor hope at this point.

No,...I think it's now 10+ hours,...6:13 am to 4:40 pm

All I've heard is that 3 C130's are looking. That's a disgrace. 162 people possibly in the water,...with 1 hour of daylight left. This upsets me.

AP has been reporting it was last heard from at 6:13 am

Edited December 28, 201411 yr by Ve37

The AirAsia QZ8501 flight has now been missing for 9 hours, twice the amount of time of its fuel endurance.

The first information quoted above suggests that the pilot only asked to change altitude. The second suggests suggests that he asked to change altitude and to change direction. Perhaps Murjatmodjo also meant to say that the pilot asked to change altitude to avoid the clouds, ie fly above them. I guess one can fly around a cloud also on a vertically -- not doing a full circle, of course -- not just horizontally.

Maestro, you are describe the dilemma the pilots had very vividely. Try and climb above the CB clouds was a GOOD IDEA. Then realising that their hopes and prayers were not met as the extent of the thunderstorm exceeded the climbing ability of the aircraft. Still heavy shortly after take off - present 32,000 was probably optimal. Next option: turn the nose of the craft away from the big red area in the 12 oçlock position of the wx radar. Then the sobering realisation that the red followed: thunderstorms almost everywhere between them and Changi airport. Therefore "not a full circle" was probably an even better idea. I.e. turn back.

That is with 20/20 hindsight and in a world without commercial Directors.

Certainly looks like the aircraft was caught in a super up-draft, losing lots of airspeed.........

Leaked photo of ATCscreen on #QZ8501, it ended up at 36300ft and climbing but ground speed only 353 knots!

https://twitter.com/GerryS/status/549075001173766144/photo/1

The first information quoted above suggests that the pilot only asked to change altitude. The second suggests suggests that he asked to change altitude and to change direction. Perhaps Murjatmodjo also meant to say that the pilot asked to change altitude to avoid the clouds, ie fly above them. I guess one can fly around a cloud also on a vertically -- not doing a full circle, of course -- not just horizontally.

Maestro, you are describe the dilemma the pilots had very vividely. Try and climb above the CB clouds was a GOOD IDEA. Then realising that their hopes and prayers were not met as the extent of the thunderstorm exceeded the climbing ability of the aircraft. Still heavy shortly after take off - present 32,000 was probably optimal. Next option: turn the nose of the craft away from the big red area in the 12 oçlock position of the wx radar. Then the sobering realisation that the red followed: thunderstorms almost everywhere between them and Changi airport. Therefore "not a full circle" was probably an even better idea. I.e. turn back.

That is with 20/20 hindsight and in a world without commercial Directors.

Pilots know full well that out-climbing a thunderstorm of this size just after dawn is a really stupid thing to attempt.

RT @W7VOA: RT @flightradar24: Only about 1h our of daylight left in #QZ8501 search area. http://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/549140971599200256/photo/1

I see conflicting information given by two Indonesian officials about the last communication from the aircraft to air traffic control.

1. Joko Muryo Atmodjo, air transportation director at the Transport Ministry, told a news conference on Sunday that the plane had been flying at 32,000 feet and had asked to fly at 38,000 feet to avoid clouds.

2. "At 6.12 am, the pilot asked Jakarta tower to be allowed to move up to 38,000 feet from 32,000 feet and to fly around a bad cloud. The tower lost contact at 6.17am," Murjatmodjo told a media briefing at Indonesia's main international airport, the Soekarno-Hatta, outside Jakarta.

Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/airasia-indonesia-flight-qz8501-pilot-asked-fly-higher-altitude-avoi#sthash.WTJeLBcM.JF1Ydm62.dpuf

The first information quoted above suggests that the pilot only asked to change altitude. The second suggests that he asked to change altitude and to change direction. Perhaps Murjatmodjo also meant to say that the pilot asked to change altitude to avoid the clouds, ie fly above them. I guess one can fly around a cloud also on a vertically -- not doing a full circle, of course -- not just horizontally.

I believe the safest reply is: "that depends". If "loops" around a cloud are disallowed, how about "flat spins"?

There is the horrific story of Pulkovo 612 08/22/06 - Wiki, which AFAIC is a prophetic parallel to the AF447 loss.

"Early reports suggest that Flight 612 may have been caught in a thunderstorm; immediately prior to the crash, the pilots notified air traffic control that they were experiencing severe turbulence. According to the residents of a nearby town, the weather at the time of the crash was violent enough to cause power outages and cell phone disruptions on the ground. Authorities on the scene have speculated that the aircraft was struck by lightning which may have initiated an onboard fire. However, another theory has since been proposed. Based on various information, including the partially decrypted from a recovered flight recorder crash investigators believe that the aircraft climbed to an altitude higher than the maximum for which it was designed, causing the aircraft to enter into a flat spin from which it never recovered." (edited - emphasis mine)

Pulkovo 612 Flight Simulation - YouTube (Becomes dramatic around 3 minutes in)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uJHIzXQWXk

Edited December 28, 201411 yr by MaxYakov

Presumably Singapore's C-130 Hercules should be able to do IR night searches, as is common in SAR operations with these planes - at least in Australia and New Zealand

In any case, before it took off there would have been an assessment of daylight left and its search ability. If it was not able to do low-light search, it wouldn't have been sent. RNZAF Hercules which were outfitted for MH370 search had a fuel capacity of 6-8 hours.

/@Reddit

Whatever the outcome, the question remains why ATC took 50 minutes to report the aircraft "missing" -- as I posted earlier.

Also why it took 9 hours for the offer of SAR assistance to be accepted.

Anyone floating around in a liferaft would not unreasonably expect full answers for the delay in their rescue.

I am still hoping there are people to be rescued, but approaching night is going to make that more difficult than it needs to be

QZ8501 believed crashed near Belitung, boats despatched, says Indonesian SAR
Published: 28 December 2014

Missing AirAsia flight QZ8501 is believed to have crashed at the location 03.22.46 South and 108.50.07 East, in waters around 80 to 100 nautical miles from Belitung, according to Indonesia's search and rescue agency.

A National Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas) official from Pangkalpinang, Supriandi, was reported by Antara news agency as saying it had dispatched a rescue team to Belitung.

The Singapore-bound Airbus A320-200 from Surabaya had circled over the sea near Belitung to avoid a storm before it experienced severe turbulence and crashed into the ocean, reports said.

The flight was carrying 155 passengers on board, including 16 children and one infant, and seven crew members.
With hard details few and far between, panicked relatives gathered at Singapore's Changi airport, AFP reported.

Hundreds of Indonesians also descended on the Surabaya terminal hoping for news of the missing jet.

A 45-year-old woman told AFP that she had six family members on the plane.

"They were going to Singapore for a holiday," she said.

"They have always flown with AirAsia and there was no problem. I am shocked to hear the news, and I am very worried that the plane might have crashed."

This is the first major incident for Asia's largest low-cost carrier group. The missing jet is operated by AirAsia Indonesia, which is 49% owned by the Malaysia-based AirAsia Bhd.

Bangkapos.com reported that fishermen in east Belitung claimed to have heard a loud explosion near the coast of Kelapa Kampit between 7am and 8am Indonesian time.

The information was then channeled to Tagana (a disaster management group) to engage in a search and rescue effort.

The Indonesian news portal reported that the fishermen were fishing off the Kelapa Kampit coast when they heard the sound, roughly 10 kilometres away.

They were, however, unable to pinpoint the exact location of the explosion and suspected it could have originated near Pulau Nangka in Belitung Timur.

-- Source: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/qz8501-believed-crashed-near-belitung-boats-despatched-says-indonesian-sar#sthash.8T5x80l5.dpuf

Whatever the outcome, the question remains why ATC took 50 minutes to report the aircraft "missing" -- as I posted earlier.

Also why it took 9 hours for the offer of SAR assistance to be accepted.

Anyone floating around in a liferaft would not unreasonably expect full answers for the delay in their rescue.

I am still hoping there are people to be rescued, but approaching night is going to make that more difficult than it needs to be

It would not seem unreasonable that at least one ship/vessel on the water would have seen something. Especially since the airplane went down before noontime. Is there nothing at all in that area?

There are reports that the RAAF (Australia) is sending 3 P-3 Orions to assist the search.

UPDATE: No wreckage of #AirAsia flight #QZ5801 found, weather conditions poor - Indonesian Navy official

Reports now say the Captain has over 20,500 total time, with 6,100 hours with AirAsia. This is different from earlier information from AirAsia. /@pprune

Whatever the outcome, the question remains why ATC took 50 minutes to report the aircraft "missing" -- as I posted earlier.

Also why it took 9 hours for the offer of SAR assistance to be accepted.

Anyone floating around in a liferaft would not unreasonably expect full answers for the delay in their rescue.

I am still hoping there are people to be rescued, but approaching night is going to make that more difficult than it needs to be

It would not seem unreasonable that at least one ship/vessel on the water would have seen something. Especially since the airplane went down before noontime. Is there nothing at all in that area?

Apparently the weather is bad, poor visibility and big seas. Local fishermen reported a loud bang earlier -- I posted about that above

A flight arrival information signboard shows the status of AirAsia
flight QZ 8501 from Indonesian city of Surabaya to Singapore at
Changi Airport in Singapore.

RT @mpoppel: Online flight trackers show wrong last position of AirAsia flight because they don't have coverage there.

RT @mpoppel: Confirmed: The last known position of AirAsia flight QZ8501, which is different from what online trackers showed http://twitter.com/mpoppel/status/549150840670650368/photo/1

Oh no, not again. What a sad day, again.

After reading more, I see that this doesn't look good. Holiday Hopes for survivors.

Edited December 28, 201411 yr by ThaiFraiGai

The part I'm trying to understand here, as a non-pilot, is this:

If the cause of this aircraft's mishap was strictly a weather related event, what kind of weather event would so quickly and totally disable a jet of the A320's size that the pilots would be unable to at least get out a radio'd mayday signal or any other form of distress?

Updated info from Indonesian National SAR:

06:12 local time: QZ8501 in contact with Jakarta center at FL320 and requested deviation left from M635 and climb to FL380.

ATC approved left deviation, but the climb to FL380 had not been approved, pending conflicting traffic. /@pprune