AirAsia flight QZ8501 from Indonesia to Singapore missing

[EyesWideOpen]

I wonder how many planes the airline industry has to " lose" before they finally install

real time tracking that is broadcast back to their home base.... In this day and age

of electronic marvels, losing a plane and then go to try and find it is insane.....

I am not talking about the complex engine ACARS system, but rather just a simple ongoing

location system.

Note to self : Do not fly on a Malaysian Airline. They seem to be having a run of bad luck....

Edited December 28, 2014 by EyesWideOpen

[george]

Malaysia search operations have stopped for now due to bad weather. Operations will resume tomorrow

--Channel NewsAsia.

[george]

National Committee of Transportation Safety (KNKT): There is still no debris found

[smedly]

I always assumed that avoiding clouds - storms - turbulence etc was for passenger comfort as opposed to a threat to the aircraft, not saying they are indestructible but I honestly believed it would take something in the extreme (tornado) to actually down one of these modern aircraft, maybe I'm wrong

History tells us that most if not all air accidents are caused by either pilot error - mechanical failure - or maintenance error, all of which point at a human in the chain, ok we have the odd situation of birds entering both engines or similar

NOAA 6/2002 - Study of Weather-Related Fatal Aviation Accidents

Abstract

This study is a statistical summary of all fatal aircraft accidents that occurred in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) and coastal waters which involved general aviation and small commuter aviation aircraft from 1995-2000. These data summarize fatal accidents in which the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) cited weather to be a cause or contributing factor. From 1995 to 2000, 4018 people died in aircraft accidents; of which weather related accidents accounted for 1,380 deaths. Essentially, the NTSB cited weather as a factor in 3 of every 10 fatal aircraft accidents during this period.

The National Weather Service Vision states a need to strive to eliminate weather-related fatalities." The NWS theme for 2002 is "Working Together to Save Lives." The yearly average for weather-related fatalities in general aviation (230) is comparable to the combined fatalities due to lightning, tornadoes and floods (213). Results of this study will provide a statistical data base that justifies an expanded outreach program. This program will be targeted to the general aviation community.

Since this report is over 12 years old and uses only NTSB data (not world-wide), it does not include AF447 and many other weather-related aviation accidents.

ok perhaps I should have elaborated, not including tale off and landing were weather can play a big part, this aircraft was flying at over 30k feet and cruising - a very different situation

[slipperylobster]

The part I'm trying to understand here, as a non-pilot, is this:

If the cause of this aircraft's mishap was strictly a weather related event, what kind of weather event would so quickly and totally disable a jet of the A320's size that the pilots would be unable to at least get out a radio'd mayday signal or any other form of distress?

Exactly. That is why the report of a large "bang", at 36,000 ft or more, sounds so ominous/catastrophic. It may have just been thunder, but I think the difference would be clear.

Most recent update I have come up with simply says...........9 hours on, no clue of missing AirAsia Flight...etc.

We are still guessing.

Edited December 28, 2014 by slipperylobster

[george]

There's a correction from AirAsia: http://on.fb.me/1vjWooS

"AirAsia Indonesia would like to issue a correction on the nationality breakdown of passenger and crew on board QZ8501 as follows:

Nationalities of passengers:
1 Singapore
1 Malaysia
3 South Korea
1 United Kingdom
149 Indonesia

Nationalities of crew:
1 France
6 Indonesia

AirAsia will release further information as soon as it becomes available. Updated information will also be posted on the AirAsia website, www.airasia.com."

[Konini]

The danger for the aircraft is not "Lightening" it is "Hail". If enough hail gets sucked into the engines it stalls. In engine testing you can shoot water directly from a fire hose into a jet engine and it will keep running but inject ice...bad things happen. Also a A320 also has a "ditch switch" for water landings . The pilot if he able too can ditch in water and the plane floats. But now I'm hearing they found wreckage but that's unconfirmed.

Would you indulge me by taking the time to explain this in a way that untechnical types can understand please; it sounds very interesting.

[george]

I am touched by the massive show of support especially from my fellow airlines. This is my worse nightmare. But there is no stopping. /@ Tony Fernandes

[george]

KNKT: The reason why we can't accept foreign help is because

1) We still haven't able to confirm the plane location

2) Efficiency, we still want to rely on our own sources

Source: http://news.detik.com/read/2014/12/28/174822/2788454/10/knkt-tawaran-bantuan-internasional-belum-bisa-kami-terima

[drjmagic]

Link to interesting article about why airlines don't - and SHOULD - have live streaming of black-box data

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/malaysia-airlines-mh370-why-airlines-don-t-live-stream-black-box-data-1.2586966

[jpinx]

another source of information...

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-30615089

[BernieOnTour]

ok no search and rescue sightings as yet even though its daylight . did pilot take plane off course ? who was pilot ? not conspiracy theorist but why has plane not been found yet ? i dont think this was an accident.

prayers to families and to all onboard.

This response time is just unacceptable,...a 162 people,...perhaps floating in the sea more than 7 hours after this incident. It will be dark in 2 hours.

"The Singapore Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC), managed by CAAS, had offered assistance to BASARNAS, the Indonesian Search and Rescue Agency at 9.30am on Sunday, offering planes and ships to assist in the search. Indonesia accepted the offer at 2.30pm. "

<deleted> 5 hours lost and only one of 2 C-130 accepted

Unfortunately, Philippines and Indonesia share the same negligence and face saving attitude - must be the Malay heritage...

[george]

"It is already dark, ships and aircraft is sent back to the base" Vice President Jusuf Kalla told a news conference".

Source: http://news.detik.com/read/2014/12/28/180832/2788464/10/hari-mulai-gelap-kapal-dan-pesawat-pencari-qz8501-kembali-ke-pangkalan

[krisb]

The news in Aus mentioned some 23 ticket holders failed to make it on this plane.

Hard to believe we are here reading of yet another plane crash. Just tragic.

[smedly]

I wonder how many planes the airline industry has to " lose" before they finally install

real time tracking that is broadcast back to their home base.... In this day and age

of electronic marvels, losing a plane and then go to try and find it is insane.....

I am not talking about the complex engine ACARS system, but rather just a simple ongoing

location system.

Note to self : Do not fly on a Malaysian Airline. They seem to be having a run of bad luck....

I agree it is quite ridiculous, google can track you to a toilet in any part of the world to within 5 feet of a urinal yet we are seeing aircraft with all this technology getting completely lost

I've had GPS turned on while flying and it tells absolutely everything about my position speed altitude heading all in real time - go figure

[BernieOnTour]

Reports now say the Captain has over 20,500 total time, with 6,100 hours with AirAsia. This is different from earlier information from AirAsia. /@pprune

Another early report also mentinioned, the FO is French

[Dibbler]

ok no search and rescue sightings as yet even though its daylight . did pilot take plane off course ? who was pilot ? not conspiracy theorist but why has plane not been found yet ? i dont think this was an accident.

prayers to families and to all onboard.

This response time is just unacceptable,...a 162 people,...perhaps floating in the sea more than 7 hours after this incident. It will be dark in 2 hours.

"The Singapore Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC), managed by CAAS, had offered assistance to BASARNAS, the Indonesian Search and Rescue Agency at 9.30am on Sunday, offering planes and ships to assist in the search. Indonesia accepted the offer at 2.30pm. "

<deleted> 5 hours lost and only one of 2 C-130 accepted

Unfortunately, Philippines and Indonesia share the same negligence and face saving attitude - must be the Malay heritage...

Is the estimated crash location in Indonesian, Malaysian or international waters? Who is responsible for search and rescue in such a situation? Seems incredible it took the best part of a day for rescue ops to get to a point that lies within an hours flying time of Jakarta, KL and Singapore airports.

[EyesWideOpen]

The news in Aus mentioned some 23 ticket holders failed to make it on this plane.

Hard to believe we are here reading of yet another plane crash. Just tragic.

Link please ? 23 seems like a lot of people......

[Prbkk]

"It is already dark, ships and aircraft is sent back to the base" Vice President Jusuf Kalla told a news conference".

Source: http://news.detik.com/read/2014/12/28/180832/2788464/10/hari-mulai-gelap-kapal-dan-pesawat-pencari-qz8501-kembali-ke-pangkalan

Just pathetic in the face of tragedy. They knew by 7.00am local time, if not sooner, that it was likely this plane was down. They could have had the Singaporean C130 on the site, in the area at least, by 11.00am.

[Prbkk]

The news in Aus mentioned some 23 ticket holders failed to make it on this plane.

Hard to believe we are here reading of yet another plane crash. Just tragic.

Link please ? 23 seems like a lot of people......

I believe this is incorrect. The passenger manifest put online ( but now delted?) listed 3 "no shows", all from one (very luck) family

[BernieOnTour]

I wonder how many planes the airline industry has to " lose" before they finally install

real time tracking that is broadcast back to their home base.... In this day and age

of electronic marvels, losing a plane and then go to try and find it is insane.....

I am not talking about the complex engine ACARS system, but rather just a simple ongoing

location system.

Note to self : Do not fly on a Malaysian Airline. They seem to be having a run of bad luck....

Acc. to some sources, first the signal was lost, but the ADS-B still broadcastedfor a short time (not to the home base, but the traffic control), so essentially sending out identity, location, and velocity.

[krisb]

The news in Aus mentioned some 23 ticket holders failed to make it on this plane.

Hard to believe we are here reading of yet another plane crash. Just tragic.

Link please ? 23 seems like a lot of people......

It was on channel 10 news here in Aus so probably hard to link that.

I agree, seems a lot, but I heard it clearly. 23 passengers failed to check in.

No doubt the 'actual' number will be found out. Just take the passenger list, it's changed several times.

[Konini]

Whatever the outcome, the question remains why ATC took 50 minutes to report the aircraft "missing" -- as I posted earlier.

Also why it took 9 hours for the offer of SAR assistance to be accepted.

Yes, this doesn't make it look good. George has posted a quote saying that the Indonesians wanted to rely on their own sources rather than accept foreign help. This is ludicrous, even more so given how long it takes help to arrive once it's accepted. It would have been close to nightfall when they accepted Singapore's offer, rather than have them on standby in the suspected area (which hasn't changed all day). I'm sure nobody would mind if they had a crew on standby in the wrong spot, surely that would be more acceptable than not having them there at all. Unfortunately, Indonesia has had more experience with aircraft disasters as most countries, and their track record in locating them isn't great, so you'd think that they would gratefully accept any help offered.

I'm not sure what they mean by reported missing - is that reported internally as missing or reported to the press as missing. I'm assuming the press, because I don't want to think that anyone in such a position would be so incompetent that they wouldn't report something like this immediately it were noticed - if for no other reason than passing the buck and all responsibility for it to a higher-up. It just doesn't sound right that a plane would be off the radar for 50 minutes before anyone dragged their backside out of their chair and made it known. I hope, anyway.

[agogohome]

The news in Aus mentioned some 23 ticket holders failed to make it on this plane.

Hard to believe we are here reading of yet another plane crash. Just tragic.

Link please ? 23 seems like a lot of people......

I believe this is incorrect. The passenger manifest put online ( but now delted?) listed 3 "no shows", all from one (very luck) family

No, I've seen the passenger list on line, and it clearly shows 23 'no shows'. Roughly 50/50 male/female passengers and crew.

[krisb]

The news in Aus mentioned some 23 ticket holders failed to make it on this plane.

Hard to believe we are here reading of yet another plane crash. Just tragic.

Link please ? 23 seems like a lot of people......

I believe this is incorrect. The passenger manifest put online ( but now delted?) listed 3 "no shows", all from one (very luck) family

Hmm, maybe I heard 2 or 3, not 23.

[krisb]

The news in Aus mentioned some 23 ticket holders failed to make it on this plane.

Hard to believe we are here reading of yet another plane crash. Just tragic.

Link please ? 23 seems like a lot of people......

I believe this is incorrect. The passenger manifest put online ( but now delted?) listed 3 "no shows", all from one (very luck) family

No, I've seen the passenger list on line, and it clearly shows 23 'no shows'. Roughly 50/50 male/female passengers and crew.

Thankyou for confirming.

23 of the luckiest people in the world tonight.

[Lite Beer]

RT @W7VOA: MT @ChannelNewsAsia: 3 planes searched area for 2 hours until operations suspended http://cna.asia/qz8501updates http://twitter.com/ChannelNewsAsia/status/549167233612541953/photo/1

[BernieOnTour]

"It is already dark, ships and aircraft is sent back to the base" Vice President Jusuf Kalla told a news conference".

Source: http://news.detik.com/read/2014/12/28/180832/2788464/10/hari-mulai-gelap-kapal-dan-pesawat-pencari-qz8501-kembali-ke-pangkalan

Just pathetic in the face of tragedy. They knew by 7.00am local time, if not sooner, that it was likely this plane was down. They could have had the Singaporean C130 on the site, in the area at least, by 11.00am.

You are totally right, and of cause, sun dawn around 6pm is a total surprise in the tropics...

But George already reported the reason:

KNKT: The reason why we can't accept foreign help is because

1) We still haven't able to confirm the plane location

2) Efficiency, we still want to rely on our own sources

Source: http://news.detik.com/read/2014/12/28/174822/2788454/10/knkt-tawaran-bantuan-internasional-belum-bisa-kami-terima

[Lite Beer]

RT @W7VOA: RT @ChannelNewsAsia: #QZ8501 search and locate operations have been suspended for tonight, will resume tomorrow http://cna.asia/qz8501updates

[jpinx]

Whatever the outcome, the question remains why ATC took 50 minutes to report the aircraft "missing" -- as I posted earlier.

Also why it took 9 hours for the offer of SAR assistance to be accepted.

Yes, this doesn't make it look good. George has posted a quote saying that the Indonesians wanted to rely on their own sources rather than accept foreign help. This is ludicrous, even more so given how long it takes help to arrive once it's accepted. It would have been close to nightfall when they accepted Singapore's offer, rather than have them on standby in the suspected area (which hasn't changed all day). I'm sure nobody would mind if they had a crew on standby in the wrong spot, surely that would be more acceptable than not having them there at all. Unfortunately, Indonesia has had more experience with aircraft disasters as most countries, and their track record in locating them isn't great, so you'd think that they would gratefully accept any help offered.

I'm not sure what they mean by reported missing - is that reported internally as missing or reported to the press as missing. I'm assuming the press, because I don't want to think that anyone in such a position would be so incompetent that they wouldn't report something like this immediately it were noticed - if for no other reason than passing the buck and all responsibility for it to a higher-up. It just doesn't sound right that a plane would be off the radar for 50 minutes before anyone dragged their backside out of their chair and made it known. I hope, anyway.

From Indonesia National SAR official briefing:

(all times local)

05:36 QZ8501 departed Juanda airport, Surabaya

06:12 Contacts Jakarta center 125.70 at FL320, requests weather deviation left of M635 airway and climb to FL380

06:16 QZ8501 still observed on radar

06:17 Radar contact lost. Radio contact lost. Only ADS-B signal remained.

06:18 All contact lost. Only flight plan view on radar screen.

07:08 ATC declares INCERFA (aircraft position uncertain)

07:28 ATC declares ALERTFA (emergency alert)

07:55 ATC declares DETRESFA (emergency distress)

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/787404-airasia-flight-qz8501-from-indonesia-to-singapore-missing/?view=findpost&p=8862090

Edited to add --

ADS-B -- what flightradar24.com use (and others)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_dependent_surveillance-broadcast

Edited December 28, 2014 by jpinx