Thai baht remaining strong

[morrobay]

A strong baht is good for the very very wealthy and powerful Chinese/Thais who are also in position to manipulate its value with influence of BOT monetary policy. A plus side effect of this is that foreigners cannot be buying the local women on the cheap. Its common knowledge that the elite resent this very much. Is it a coincidence that while Thaksin was in power up until 2006 that the baht was around 40/$ ?.
And of course this was very beneficial to his poor supporters in the North/Northeast of the country where most of the poor young women originate from.

[paddyjenkins]

A strong baht is good for the very very wealthy and powerful Chinese/Thais who are also in position to manipulate its value with influence of BOT monetary policy. A plus side effect of this is that foreigners cannot be buying the local women on the cheap. Its common knowledge that the elite resent this very much. Is it a coincidence that while Thaksin was in power up until 2006 that the baht was around 40/$ ?.

And of course this was very beneficial to his poor supporters in the North/Northeast of the country where most of the poor young women originate from.

The thing that seemed strange about your post was that you didn't spell baht as either bart or bath

[paddyjenkins]

.

Edited January 27, 2015 by paddyjenkins

[alfieconn]

A strong baht is good for the very very wealthy and powerful Chinese/Thais who are also in position to manipulate its value with influence of BOT monetary policy. A plus side effect of this is that foreigners cannot be buying the local women on the cheap. Its common knowledge that the elite resent this very much. Is it a coincidence that while Thaksin was in power up until 2006 that the baht was around 40/$ ?.

And of course this was very beneficial to his poor supporters in the North/Northeast of the country where most of the poor young women originate from.

So are you saying the local woman being expensive is ok with the Chinese / Thais

[morrobay]

A strong baht is good for the very very wealthy and powerful Chinese/Thais who are also in position to manipulate its value with influence of BOT monetary policy. A plus side effect of this is that foreigners cannot be buying the local women on the cheap. Its common knowledge that the elite resent this very much. Is it a coincidence that while Thaksin was in power up until 2006 that the baht was around 40/$ ?.

And of course this was very beneficial to his poor supporters in the North/Northeast of the country where most of the poor young women originate from.

So are you saying the local woman being expensive is ok with the Chinese / Thais

I guess you havent thought this through too well; It is the exchange rate that makes them more expensive to foreigners

Now do Chinese Thais have to exchange their bahts for bahts ??

Edited January 27, 2015 by morrobay

[SheungWan]

A strong baht is good for the very very wealthy and powerful Chinese/Thais who are also in position to manipulate its value with influence of BOT monetary policy. A plus side effect of this is that foreigners cannot be buying the local women on the cheap. Its common knowledge that the elite resent this very much. Is it a coincidence that while Thaksin was in power up until 2006 that the baht was around 40/$ ?.

And of course this was very beneficial to his poor supporters in the North/Northeast of the country where most of the poor young women originate from.

Are you noticing any other side effects up where you are right now?

[Misab]

I think the real question here is why isn't the Baht stronger than it currently is?

Thailand imports more than $30billion of oil each year - almost 10% of their GDP just to buy oil. Now that oil prices have fallen about 50% in the last 5 months, guess what? Now they save $15 billion. That's $15bln less each year that flows out of the country.

My prediction is if Oil stays sub $50 then the Bath/USD will be trading at or below 30 by December this year. Those who think the baht is "temporarily stronger" than it should be will find out soon enough how wrong they are.

Not much difference in Thai import and export of oil

Top 5 Products exported by Thailand Computers (8.8%), Rubber (4.2%), Delivery Trucks (3.5%), Refined Petroleum (3.3%), and Gold (3.0%) Top 5 Products imported by Thailand Gold (5.6%), Crude Petroleum (4.5%), Vehicle Parts (4.2%), Petroleum Gas (2.6%), and Computers (2.3%)

[Time Traveller]

I think the real question here is why isn't the Baht stronger than it currently is?

Thailand imports more than $30billion of oil each year - almost 10% of their GDP just to buy oil. Now that oil prices have fallen about 50% in the last 5 months, guess what? Now they save $15 billion. That's $15bln less each year that flows out of the country.

My prediction is if Oil stays sub $50 then the Bath/USD will be trading at or below 30 by December this year. Those who think the baht is "temporarily stronger" than it should be will find out soon enough how wrong they are.

Not much difference in Thai import and export of oil

Top 5 Products exported by Thailand Computers (8.8%), Rubber (4.2%), Delivery Trucks (3.5%), Refined Petroleum (3.3%), and Gold (3.0%) Top 5 Products imported by Thailand Gold (5.6%), Crude Petroleum (4.5%), Vehicle Parts (4.2%), Petroleum Gas (2.6%), and Computers (2.3%)

Well I don't know what year those figures are from so let's just assume they are current.

4.5% (crude petroluem imports)+2.6%(petroleum gas imports) - 3.3% (refined petroleum export) = 3.8% deficit in petroleum products.

As GDP is around $387 billion (as of 2013 World Bank) , then the 3.8% deficit = $14.7 bln.

So with petroleum prices falling 55% in the last 7 months then the savings is $8 billion.

That assumes your figures are recent. I suspect they are not since the total crude oil imports have contined to increase each year in the last 5 years according energy industry reports.

So the savings is I suspect closer to $15 bln than the $8 bln using your figures - either way, that's still a big benefit to the trade balance and bullish for the Baht.

Edited January 27, 2015 by Time Traveller

[Berkshire]

A strong baht is good for the very very wealthy and powerful Chinese/Thais who are also in position to manipulate its value with influence of BOT monetary policy. A plus side effect of this is that foreigners cannot be buying the local women on the cheap. Its common knowledge that the elite resent this very much. Is it a coincidence that while Thaksin was in power up until 2006 that the baht was around 40/$ ?.

And of course this was very beneficial to his poor supporters in the North/Northeast of the country where most of the poor young women originate from.

Just about every single one of your points in this post is wrong and/or utter nonsense.

[morrobay]

A strong baht is good for the very very wealthy and powerful Chinese/Thais who are also in position to manipulate its value with influence of BOT monetary policy. A plus side effect of this is that foreigners cannot be buying the local women on the cheap. Its common knowledge that the elite resent this very much. Is it a coincidence that while Thaksin was in power up until 2006 that the baht was around 40/$ ?.

And of course this was very beneficial to his poor supporters in the North/Northeast of the country where most of the poor young women originate from.

Just about every single one of your points in this post is wrong and/or utter nonsense.

Well at least im trying to answer the question, instead of taking potshots at those who are doing so. My primary point is that the baht is being manipulated to some extent and it would be by those that benefit.(and have influence) Ie, the very wealthy who buy property overseas and send their children to universities overseas. There are alot of sectors in this country who would appreciate a devaluation. Tourism and manufacturing/export sectors both of which are seeing declining revenues Of course the elites could care less

[Time Traveller]

A strong baht is good for the very very wealthy and powerful Chinese/Thais who are also in position to manipulate its value with influence of BOT monetary policy. A plus side effect of this is that foreigners cannot be buying the local women on the cheap. Its common knowledge that the elite resent this very much. Is it a coincidence that while Thaksin was in power up until 2006 that the baht was around 40/$ ?.

And of course this was very beneficial to his poor supporters in the North/Northeast of the country where most of the poor young women originate from.

Just about every single one of your points in this post is wrong and/or utter nonsense.

Well at least im trying to answer the question, instead of taking potshots at those who are doing so. My primary point is that the baht is being manipulated to some extent and it would be by those that benefit.(and have influence) Ie, the very wealthy who buy property overseas and send their children to universities overseas. There are alot of sectors in this country who would appreciate a devaluation. Tourism and manufacturing/export sectors both of which are seeing declining revenues Of course the elites could care less

morrobay, your comments say a lot about you. Just because you're obsessed with how many thai hookers your dollars can buy, doesn't mean that everyone esle does and conspires to manipulate currency rates for that purpose.

And since it seems you are probably at the bottom rung on the financial ladder, let me give you a little secret about rich people. They don't care one way or another about exchanges rates (let alone thai hooker prices) simply because exchange rates movements have no significant impact on them. You think a rich guy is worried about the tuitition cost and the effect the exchange rate on it and property investments? Well if they are, then I'm afraid they are more aspiring to be rich than actually rich.

The baht is manipulated. There's no secret about this. It's called a managed float. That's the terminology used when the central bank intervenes to prevent volatile swings, so when it appreciates too much they sell baht to devalue it or bring it back to where it was before. When it depreciates too much they buy buy to appreciate the currency. And that's why over the last decade the baht has moved within a 20% range. Over the last 5 years the range has been even narrower - around 10% - hardly worth getting worried about

Edited January 29, 2015 by Time Traveller

[Diplomatico]

The baht is manipulated. There's no secret about this. It's called a managed float. That's the terminology used when the central bank intervenes to prevent volatile swings, so when it appreciates too much they sell baht to devalue it or bring it back to where it was before. When it depreciates too much they buy buy to appreciate the currency. And that's why over the last decade the baht has moved within a 20% range. Over the last 5 years the range has been even narrower - around 10% - hardly worth getting worried about

Spot on.

[morrobay]

The baht is manipulated. There's no secret about this. It's called a managed float. That's the terminology used when the central bank intervenes to prevent volatile swings, so when it appreciates too much they sell baht to devalue it or bring it back to where it was before. When it depreciates too much they buy buy to appreciate the currency. And that's why over the last decade the baht has moved within a 20% range. Over the last 5 years the range has been even narrower - around 10% - hardly worth getting worried about

Spot on.

Nice textbook example: Sure the central bank is manipulating the baht and the very rich are manipulating the central bank.

@ T T your reading comprehension says alot about you: Obsessed with hooker prices ??.

In first post I said it was just incidental to the exchange rate that the wealthy benefit from and influence. In second post I said the primary point was just that.

And your conclusions say alot about your mindset: That those here for the girls are on bottom ladder rung ??

Edited January 30, 2015 by morrobay

[Time Traveller]

deleted post

Edited January 30, 2015 by Time Traveller

[Time Traveller]

The baht is manipulated. There's no secret about this. It's called a managed float. That's the terminology used when the central bank intervenes to prevent volatile swings, so when it appreciates too much they sell baht to devalue it or bring it back to where it was before. When it depreciates too much they buy buy to appreciate the currency. And that's why over the last decade the baht has moved within a 20% range. Over the last 5 years the range has been even narrower - around 10% - hardly worth getting worried about

Spot on.

Nice textbook example: Sure the central bank is manipulating the baht and the very rich are manipulating the central bank.

@ T T your reading comprehension says alot about you: Obsessed with hooker prices ??.

In first post I said it was just incidental to the exchange rate that the wealthy benefit from and influence. In second post I said the primary point was just that.

And your conclusions say alot about your mindset: That those here for the girls are on bottom ladder rung ??

I'm only saying what you view as important and what you think other people view as important are completely different things. For someone geninuely rich - $30mln (1 billion baht) or more - 10% movements in exchange rates are nothing. You think Russian billionaires are crying since the Ruble lost 50% of it's value last year?

Only those leveraged to the max with expenses in different currencies from the their assets/income live and die by exchange rate movements.

So if exchange rate movements become meaningless than what reason would they want to manipulate it?

But you are entitled to keep believing the rich Thais are manipulating the THB exchange rate so they can save $2000 a year on the cost of their children's foreign education. Good for you morrobay, there's a conspiracy around every corner and people trying to take advantage of you without your knowledge..

Edited January 30, 2015 by Time Traveller

[Dustdevil]

Japan keeps the Thai baht strong by heavily investing in Thailand. Japan has an aging population and needs retirement facilities for their seniors; or so I read recently.

That may be so but average Japanese cannot bear to live in a different culture. I know because I lived there for four years. OK, I don't KNOW, but this is my opinion based on a pretty good understanding of Japanese culture.

[Muzarella]

I was trying to get some education about money exchange here, and economy, instead I just was disgusted with the amount of comments about cost of Thai prostitutes and farang girlfriends, To think that any country economy have something to do with that kind of "business" is stupidity.

[hhgz]

The THB will remain strong as long as the military is in control. However, even if it isn't, the THB has shown strength. If you look this forum over the past several years, you'll read some TVers are exasperated that the THB is strong, and others are similarly upset when the THB is weak. Then, when the government steps in to either strengthen or weaken the THB, there are discussions regarding the inevitable failure of the program and, when it does, you'll read opposing perspectives over the cause and cost of the failure. However, in summary: someone is always unhappy, and it's always a conspiracy.

[paddyjenkins]

I was trying to get some education about money exchange here, and economy, instead I just was disgusted with the amount of comments about cost of Thai prostitutes and farang girlfriends, To think that any country economy have something to do with that kind of "business" is stupidity.

In fact unlike the Fed, who are mandated to target unemployment and inflation, the BoT targets both of these measures but in addition the BG Long Time index which is an index representing the average all in cost of hiring a bargirl for a 24 hour period, know as 'long time'. There is a also a short time index but this is more volatile and considered unreliable. For several years a central plank of BoT policy was to manage this index downwards, but latest thinking is the farang should pay more, in foreign currency terms, so currency strength has been tolerated for moral reasons.

[MrWorldwide]

The notion that the cornerstone of the second largest economy in Southeast Asia is the ability of Thai women to attract 'export income' is laughable. Like many here, I saw the news item estimating the impact of foreign men on Udon's economy, but how did they seriously go about collecting that kind of data ? Do women submit tax returns detailing their 'income from sources outside Thailand' ? Nope - it was a guesstimate at best. Forget about manufacturing and agriculture - Thailand depends on the fair maidens of the Northeast for it's economic strength. Right.

[Naam]

I think the real question here is why isn't the Baht stronger than it currently is?

Thailand imports more than $30billion of oil each year - almost 10% of their GDP just to buy oil. Now that oil prices have fallen about 50% in the last 5 months, guess what? Now they save $15 billion. That's $15bln less each year that flows out of the country.

My prediction is if Oil stays sub $50 then the Bath/USD will be trading at or below 30 by December this year. Those who think the baht is "temporarily stronger" than it should be will find out soon enough how wrong they are.

sorry, but i have to prick that assumption balloon:

With a total trade balance of 68.4 million barrels in 2013, Thailand is a net exporter of petroleum products.

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=th

[Naam]

A strong baht is good for the very very wealthy and powerful Chinese/Thais who are also in position to manipulate its value with influence of BOT monetary policy. A plus side effect of this is that foreigners cannot be buying the local women on the cheap. Its common knowledge that the elite resent this very much. Is it a coincidence that while Thaksin was in power up until 2006 that the baht was around 40/$ ?.

And of course this was very beneficial to his poor supporters in the North/Northeast of the country where most of the poor young women originate from.

Are you noticing any other side effects up where you are right now?

the good doctor forgot to renew the prescription

[mahtin]

It's good when a topic is like a breath of fresh air: hot.

[morrobay]

You so called economists have to laugh at conspiracy theories because you do not really have a clue as to why the baht remains strong. Not only in relation to the dollar appreciating against world currencies but regionally as well From one of the papers yesterday: The local economy which relies heavily on exports has slowed to a pace not seen in years. The .7% growth in 2014 was just the tip of the iceberg. To make matters worse the Thai baht has been among only a handful of currencies that has appreciated over the past few months. While the Singapore dollar, the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have devalued against the U.S. dollar

[SheungWan]

You so called economists have to laugh at conspiracy theories because you do not really have a clue as to why the baht remains strong. Not only in relation to the dollar appreciating against world currencies but regionally as well From one of the papers yesterday: The local economy which relies heavily on exports has slowed to a pace not seen in years. The .7% growth in 2014 was just the tip of the iceberg. To make matters worse the Thai baht has been among only a handful of currencies that has appreciated over the past few months. While the Singapore dollar, the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have devalued against the U.S. dollar

The problem with so-called non-economists is that they get their terms incorrect and show some limits to their understanding. As far as I am aware the Singapore dollar and the others referred to have not devalued against the USD. They have declined in their respective pairs but that is not the same thing at all. Re SGDTHB the rate has been fluctuating around the 24 mark for the last 4 years. The SGD has a loose peg against a basket of currencies. Its decline against the dollar will be partially as a result of the other junk in the basket. Frankly I am tempted to buy some SGD later this month at the current rate. Re THB its a difficult call. The Thai economy has the key investment of the Japanese car industry. While that holds and even expands don't hold your breath on a currency dive, subject to another bout of flooding etc.

[MrWorldwide]

Most of us did spreadsheets when we moved here with our home currencies. Despite having transferred significant AUD parcels at anything from 29.8 to 27.5 baht over the last 10 months, my 'cut and run' figure was 23.5 baht when I did my crystal balling in April 2014. The Aussie dipped below 77 US cents yesterday and the TT rate at my Thai bank is below 25 baht - I'll give it a couple of days to settle down but right now that 23.5 figure is a lot closer than I thought it would be this quickly, if that makes any sense.

I am under no illusions re Cambodia or anywhere else in the region - it's often swings and roundabouts when you start looking at prices - but at least if I'm buying USD I should be buying into a currency that's on the way up. I guess the continual doomsaying re property and household debt here have eroded my confidence in the baht. Still, at this point in time 100K baht will get me ~3K USD and that's looking awfully good right now.

Of course, said doomsayers are heppy to predict the demise of the world economy, but if that happens we're all screwed anyway. Think happy thoughts.

[zierf1]

Most of us did spreadsheets when we moved here with our home currencies. Despite having transferred significant AUD parcels at anything from 29.8 to 27.5 baht over the last 10 months, my 'cut and run' figure was 23.5 baht when I did my crystal balling in April 2014. The Aussie dipped below 77 US cents yesterday and the TT rate at my Thai bank is below 25 baht - I'll give it a couple of days to settle down but right now that 23.5 figure is a lot closer than I thought it would be this quickly, if that makes any sense.

I am under no illusions re Cambodia or anywhere else in the region - it's often swings and roundabouts when you start looking at prices - but at least if I'm buying USD I should be buying into a currency that's on the way up. I guess the continual doomsaying re property and household debt here have eroded my confidence in the baht. Still, at this point in time 100K baht will get me ~3K USD and that's looking awfully good right now.

Of course, said doomsayers are heppy to predict the demise of the world economy, but if that happens we're all screwed anyway. Think happy thoughts.

Heheh. Just wait 'til AUD goes to 15 baht(coming soon to a theatre near you thanks to the surging $USD). Won't see many Aussies in Thailand after that..

[MrWorldwide]

Most of us did spreadsheets when we moved here with our home currencies. Despite having transferred significant AUD parcels at anything from 29.8 to 27.5 baht over the last 10 months, my 'cut and run' figure was 23.5 baht when I did my crystal balling in April 2014. The Aussie dipped below 77 US cents yesterday and the TT rate at my Thai bank is below 25 baht - I'll give it a couple of days to settle down but right now that 23.5 figure is a lot closer than I thought it would be this quickly, if that makes any sense.

I am under no illusions re Cambodia or anywhere else in the region - it's often swings and roundabouts when you start looking at prices - but at least if I'm buying USD I should be buying into a currency that's on the way up. I guess the continual doomsaying re property and household debt here have eroded my confidence in the baht. Still, at this point in time 100K baht will get me ~3K USD and that's looking awfully good right now.

Of course, said doomsayers are heppy to predict the demise of the world economy, but if that happens we're all screwed anyway. Think happy thoughts.

Heheh. Just wait 'til AUD goes to 15 baht(coming soon to a theatre near you thanks to the surging $USD). Won't see many Aussies in Thailand after that..

That's a doomsday prediction. You're talking about an Aussie dollar well below 50 US cents - about the only upside there is that Australian exports would be cheap and Thailand's very expensive, assuming they could maintain pace with a runaway greenback.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD&view=10Y

Go back and look at what happened to the AUD/THB rate after the dust settled post-GFC - it may never regain those heights, but I dont see it at 46 cents US either. Time will tell, I guess.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=THB&view=10Y

Either way, I have enough baht to move now if things do seem to be heading in that direction longterm. Resources are in the toilet atm, simple as that - it will all hinge on where China finds itself by the fourth quarter of this year, and I may well be in Cambodia by then. I definitely wouldnt have been any better off in Malaysia. At the time, I questioned some of my transfers from Oz for the reasons I outlined earlier - in hindsight, they worked in my favor, but who would have predicted oil prices to fall off the chart 12 months ago ?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=1Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1Y

[SheungWan]

Most of us did spreadsheets when we moved here with our home currencies. Despite having transferred significant AUD parcels at anything from 29.8 to 27.5 baht over the last 10 months, my 'cut and run' figure was 23.5 baht when I did my crystal balling in April 2014. The Aussie dipped below 77 US cents yesterday and the TT rate at my Thai bank is below 25 baht - I'll give it a couple of days to settle down but right now that 23.5 figure is a lot closer than I thought it would be this quickly, if that makes any sense.

I am under no illusions re Cambodia or anywhere else in the region - it's often swings and roundabouts when you start looking at prices - but at least if I'm buying USD I should be buying into a currency that's on the way up. I guess the continual doomsaying re property and household debt here have eroded my confidence in the baht. Still, at this point in time 100K baht will get me ~3K USD and that's looking awfully good right now.

Of course, said doomsayers are heppy to predict the demise of the world economy, but if that happens we're all screwed anyway. Think happy thoughts.

Heheh. Just wait 'til AUD goes to 15 baht(coming soon to a theatre near you thanks to the surging $USD). Won't see many Aussies in Thailand after that..

Why stop at 15? The bar is probably still open.

Edited March 10, 2015 by SheungWan

[Naam]

You so called economists have to laugh at conspiracy theories because you do not really have a clue as to why the baht remains strong. Not only in relation to the dollar appreciating against world currencies but regionally as well From one of the papers yesterday: The local economy which relies heavily on exports has slowed to a pace not seen in years. The .7% growth in 2014 was just the tip of the iceberg. To make matters worse the Thai baht has been among only a handful of currencies that has appreciated over the past few months. While the Singapore dollar, the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have devalued against the U.S. dollar

The problem with so-called non-economists is that they get their terms incorrect and show some limits to their understanding. As far as I am aware the Singapore dollar and the others referred to have not devalued against the USD. They have declined in their respective pairs but that is not the same thing at all. Re SGDTHB the rate has been fluctuating around the 24 mark for the last 4 years. The SGD has a loose peg against a basket of currencies. Its decline against the dollar will be partially as a result of the other junk in the basket. Frankly I am tempted to buy some SGD later this month at the current rate. Re THB its a difficult call. The Thai economy has the key investment of the Japanese car industry. While that holds and even expands don't hold your breath on a currency dive, subject to another bout of flooding etc.

As far as I am aware the Singapore dollar and the others referred to have not devalued against the USD.

incorrect "awareness"

last 6 months:

SGD USD...............-10.20%

IDR USD................-11.30%

MYR USD...............-16.40%