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CHF vs. THB - Good time to buy?

elektrified
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Swiss1960 Platinum Member

Swiss1960

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The majority of the economist comments I did read predict that the Swiss Franc will weaken over the next 1-3 years. This is supported by the facts that the Swiss Economy will slow down massively within the Export and Tourism industry when the CHF is to strong. Speaking against a weakening of the CHF is the massive printing of Euros right now, so we would first need to see whether the money will be inserted into the Economy or just "parked" with the Banks and the economy within the EU will not grow...

Since the exchange rate of the CHF to THB heavily depends on the CHF/EUR and CHF/USD exchange rates, those economies will influence what will happen to the CHF/THB.

Another driving factor is something we know will happen in Thailand in the years to come (hopefully not for a VERY long time) and that might influence the Thai economy and stability and predicting what the THB exchange rate will be against ALL currencies is like reading tea leaves under water... however it is something that we know we can not discuss...

That said.. when you need significant amounts of THB over the next years, then now would be a good time to exchange. My personal prediction is that everything >37 Baht / CHF is as good as it will get over the next 1-3 years. This is based on nothing more than the 10y graphic of CHF/THB exchange rates where only for few days back in August 2011 ever went over 40/THB

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elektrified Diamond Member

elektrified

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The majority of the economist comments I did read predict that the Swiss Franc will weaken over the next 1-3 years. This is supported by the facts that the Swiss Economy will slow down massively within the Export and Tourism industry when the CHF is to strong. Speaking against a weakening of the CHF is the massive printing of Euros right now, so we would first need to see whether the money will be inserted into the Economy or just "parked" with the Banks and the economy within the EU will not grow...

Since the exchange rate of the CHF to THB heavily depends on the CHF/EUR and CHF/USD exchange rates, those economies will influence what will happen to the CHF/THB.

Another driving factor is something we know will happen in Thailand in the years to come (hopefully not for a VERY long time) and that might influence the Thai economy and stability and predicting what the THB exchange rate will be against ALL currencies is like reading tea leaves under water... however it is something that we know we can not discuss...

That said.. when you need significant amounts of THB over the next years, then now would be a good time to exchange. My personal prediction is that everything >37 Baht / CHF is as good as it will get over the next 1-3 years. This is based on nothing more than the 10y graphic of CHF/THB exchange rates where only for few days back in August 2011 ever went over 40/THB

Thank you for your very informative answer.

Robert24 Silver Member

Robert24

Posted
Posted

I bought some US$ at 0.86 against Swiss franc. Personally I recommend long $, long Swissie, long SGD. For Thai baht I'm neutral. Short Yen and Euro.

I would only buy the baht if you have some specific investments you want to do, ie stocks, property etc.

Naam Star Member

Naam

Posted
Posted

US dollar strength will support the baht.

The dollar is on a major up move, not stopping until it is at premium to Euro.

Today is about 111;

presently EUR USD is 1.1363

Pib Star Member

Pib

Posted
Posted

US dollar strength will support the baht.

The dollar is on a major up move, not stopping until it is at premium to Euro.

Today is about 111;

presently EUR USD is 1.1363

He was just roughly rounding to a lucky odd number. 111 is lucky....looks neat on a license plate.

SheungWan Gold Member

SheungWan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Nobody buying Baht with Swiss Francs???

Why should they?

Perhaps so they have some cash to live on in LOS, build something, buy a condo....who knows?

I think that is taken as a given. The implication of the question I assumed was in relation to trading the currency pair outside of immediate spending needs, although it is a fair question to ask whether one should convert now or hold back if considering the purchase of an apartment.

Edited by SheungWan
micmichd Platinum Member

micmichd

Posted
Posted

Nobody buying Baht with Swiss Francs???

Because they might get Pension from Switzerland, and as their pensions are transferred from CHC to THB, they are victims of the decline of European currencies, too.

Why should they?

Perhaps so they have some cash to live on in LOS, build something, buy a condo....who knows?

micmichd Platinum Member

micmichd

Posted
Posted

I can also see the conversion rate in the morning Thai time, before Mr Draghi ventured to get out of his bed and make his announcements. Expats are such small fish in the big ocean of international foreign exchange trade, but if you've got two bank accounts in either country and access to online banking: why not take advantage of the time zone difference?

Swiss1960 Platinum Member

Swiss1960

Posted
Posted

I can also see the conversion rate in the morning Thai time, before Mr Draghi ventured to get out of his bed and make his announcements. Expats are such small fish in the big ocean of international foreign exchange trade, but if you've got two bank accounts in either country and access to online banking: why not take advantage of the time zone difference?

very simple... because moving money from one bank account to another is NOT FOREX trading, dear micmichd... thus you will NOT get any intraday T/T rates, but the rates that the banks set once or twice a day for such transactions... and you might be facing fees that take away all your assumed win... w00t.gif

Swiss1960 Platinum Member

Swiss1960

Posted
Posted

I can also see the conversion rate in the morning Thai time, before Mr Draghi ventured to get out of his bed and make his announcements. Expats are such small fish in the big ocean of international foreign exchange trade, but if you've got two bank accounts in either country and access to online banking: why not take advantage of the time zone difference?

And by the way... in the "morning" Thai time (from 6am to 6pm)... the CHF/THB rate did go up 0.8%... and only afternoon Europe time, when Mr. Draghi "got out of bed" (so in Thai evening), did the rate drop by 2.3% due to the announcement... so where and why and how and when do you want to take advantage of the time zone difference ???? coffee1.gifcrazy.gif

micmichd Platinum Member

micmichd

Posted
Posted

Sorry, I stopped working in International Banking end of 2013 and didn't know that they stopped publishing Eonia swap index in June 2014. So, you're right now, no more eaonia swaps for private bank customers anymore.

Swiss1960 Platinum Member

Swiss1960

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sorry, I stopped working in International Banking end of 2013 and didn't know that they stopped publishing Eonia swap index in June 2014. So, you're right now, no more eaonia swaps for private bank customers anymore.

ok, you are excused....

however, I can't see what relevance the EURO overnight index average (swap index) has in a thread about CHF to THB exchange rates...

and I also fail to see what this previous DAILY index has to do with your previous comments about INTRADAY T/T rates for CHF to THB...

Edited by Swiss1960
micmichd Platinum Member

micmichd

Posted
Posted

Sorry again, I was also a customer to the bank I worked for, I did the programming for their international DWH and had access to the raw data. This connection is not available anymore.

cooked Platinum Member

cooked

Posted
Posted

Getting back to the OP: I transferred as much money as I could to my Thai bank account from Switzerland on the same day I read about this. *As others have mentioned. the CHF will doubtless fall back, but not to ฿32.0 as it was the day before. Spent it.

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Swiss1960 Platinum Member

Swiss1960

Posted
Posted

Looks like the CHF / USD exchange rate is what one needs to watch for future "predictions" about the CHF / THB exchange rate... at least that is what happened in the past 7 days ..

while USD/THB remained almost unchanged (less than 1% high to low), both CHF/USD and CHF/THB show the exact same patterns and both dropped around 6%... will be monitoring this over the next weeks to see whether this trend continues

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elektrified Diamond Member

elektrified

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Well what a difference a week makes. I got busy and wasn't paying attention to what has been happening in the markets and now the exchange rate seems to have plummeted! Had I made the exchange the day I posted this thread I would have done very well. Guess I missed it.

cooked Platinum Member

cooked

Posted
Posted

The THB x CHF rate is now back to what it was in May 2014. If you missed it, you missed it. I transferred and bought myself a nice roof. Not a big deal in the big picture unless you ate a Swiss exporter or live near the French / German frontier.

Swiss1960 Platinum Member

Swiss1960

Posted
Posted

The THB x CHF rate is now back to what it was in May 2014. If you missed it, you missed it. I transferred and bought myself a nice roof. Not a big deal in the big picture unless you ate a Swiss exporter or live near the French / German frontier.

Since the CHF / THB exchange rate is pretty much in line with the CHF / USD exchange rate and since I did read many reports predicting CHF / USD to reach parity soon and CHF / EUR to be around 1.05-1.10, I do personally expect that the future (end of 2015) will be somewhere between 32-35 THB per Swiss Franc - always assuming no major collapse neither in the US or EU or Switzerland during the year... I won't make any predictions above that date, since my tea-leave reading cup is broken and my glass bowl is only showing snow...

Robert24 Silver Member

Robert24

Posted
Posted

you may well see at some point the BoT lowering interest rates further to support exports. Clearly exporters are suffering under the strength of the bath.

Briggsy Diamond Member

Briggsy

Posted
Posted

Exchange rate now getting almost back to convergence with the Simple Moving Average. If you didn't change, you missed the boat. Though today probably represents decent value.

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