'US sleeping as China courts Thailand'

[webfact]

'US sleeping as China courts Thailand'
WIRAJ SRIPONG
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The relationship between Thailand and the United States is about to turn to a new chapter in light of the military coup, academics said yesterday.

Over the past 10 years, Washington's interests have clearly shifted from Thailand to the Middle East and elsewhere, said Benjamin Zawacki, a visiting fellow from Harvard Law School.

This lack of attention from the US has enabled China to gradually gain ground in Thailand by increasing its presence in the region, he said.

Thailand is important to the US, but that country's role of being the guardian of democratic principles is losing ground to China's pragmatism, he said.

While the US remains undecided on whether to impose full sanctions on Thailand or support the military government, China has curried favour with the junta by actively supporting it, he said.

Thammasat University historian Thanet Aphornsuvan said: "The current political regime in Thailand has led the country to align with the Chinese."

He added that US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel's recent comments had seriously affected how the military government felt about the United States.

Thanet said the US had a clear economic interest in Asia and, therefore, had to deal with Thailand.

The Trans Pacific Partnership, a comprehensive free-trade pact, remained a big issue that the US had to discuss with Thailand. This country so far has not participated in the talks.

The US would feel better about dealing with an elected government and not a military regime that favoured China more, Thanet said.

In Washington, US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Russel, who visited Thailand on Monday, and US Embassy charge d'affaires Patrick Murphy, who met with Deputy Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai on Wednesday, had simply reiterated the United States' stance on Thai politics.

Washington expressed the hope that it would continue to have a dialogue with the Kingdom, she said.

"Obviously, Thailand is a valued friend and ally, and we have a range of conversations with them," she said.

Despite the diplomatic tension, the US will not change any cooperation with Thailand, notably the joint military drill Cobra Gold, but the drill will be scaled down and refocused, she said.

"This year, Cobra Gold will focus on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief with the aim of expanding regional cooperation and coordination in these vital areas," she said.

The drill will take place from February 9-20 with the participation and observation of 26 countries in the region.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/US-sleeping-as-China-courts-Thailand-30252985.html


-- The Nation 2015-01-30

[NeverSure]

If Thailand prefers China to the US, and by default Japan, the US will stop providing Thailand with military assistance and both the US and Japan could pull manufacturing out of Thailand. The US and Japan have huge industrial investments in Thailand and create a lot for the Thai economy including exports and jobs.

Japan is afraid of China after having China threaten to take some of its islands and block shipping and airline routes. The US sailed some carrier groups through the area and made China back down. The US also made China back down from claiming all fishing rights in the S. China Sea - a place where several SE Asian countries including Thailand rely on for fishing.

If Thailand is stupid enough to play China against the US and by default Japan, it could lose US and Japanese manufacturing causing its economy to crash.

The US and Japan have already invested in large tracts of land in Burma at Yangon, as a backstop to Thailand. The US signed a deal with the Phils to move military forces back into Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base which will be a large boost to the Phil's economy.

Who is being left out and "Who is Sleeping?"

Thailand is usually too big for its britches and this writer should figure out that neither the US nor Japan needs Thailand at all.

Edited January 29, 2015 by NeverSure

[Thai at Heart]

I love how this discussion is always framed from "USA needs Thailand" with zero consideration for vice versa.

What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?

Thailand has everything to lose and little to gain from China. Do these numpties imagine the Chinese will move their manufacturing to thailand in volume to replace japanese or USA investment.

Thailand will lose massively if it goes all out to befriend China and move to disavow its friendship with the USA. This junta needs to wind its neck in fast or the USA might just take these threats seriously and just realign itself with someone else in the region to replace thailand.

Then listen to the wailing from the amaart and junta supporters that they no longer get courted by the USA and have to kowtow in Beijing. The mainland Chinese won't be nearly as nice or financiallt beneficial as doing business with the USA.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Thai at Heart

[Fatty123]

China? Well court away.

When they take over the Thai economy and all the fishing rights, what is Thailand gonna do about it? This is all smoke and mirrors. The US are not falling for Thailand's bluff and the Thai elite are throwing their toys out of the pram. This all stems from having their noses put out of joint after the US had a moan about the military government (which it is...no matter what they try and dress it up as).

Face is lost and it's a case of ''Well, this is my new bestest friend now if you don't say sorry!''

Edited January 29, 2015 by Fatty123

[NeverSure]

I love how this discussion is always framed from "USA needs Thailand" with zero consideration for vice versa.

What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?

Thailand has everything to lose and little to gain from China. Do these numpties imagine the Chinese will move their manufacturing to thailand in volume to replace japanese or USA investment.

Thailand will lose massively if it goes all out to befriend China and move to disavow its friendship with the USA. This junta needs to wind its neck in fast or the USA might just take these threats seriously and just realign itself with someone else in the region to replace thailand.

Then listen to the wailing from the amaart and junta supporters that they no longer get courted by the USA and have to kowtow in Beijing. The mainland Chinese won't be nearly as nice or financiallt beneficial as doing business with the USA.

"What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?"

Absolutely nothing at all.

[Thai at Heart]

China? Well court away.

When they take over the Thai economy and all the fishing rights, what is Thailand gonna do about it? This is all smoke and mirrors. The US are not falling for Thailand's bluff and the Thai elite are throwing their toys out of the pram. This all stems from having their noses put out of joint after the US had a moan about the military government (which it is...no matter what they try and dress it up as).

Face is lost and it's a case of ''Well, this is my new bestest friend now if you don't say sorry!''

This is not the view of the real elite, and I have a feeling that there may well be a few wrists slapped over this pathetic rhetoric.

[Thai at Heart]

I love how this discussion is always framed from "USA needs Thailand" with zero consideration for vice versa.

What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?

Thailand has everything to lose and little to gain from China. Do these numpties imagine the Chinese will move their manufacturing to thailand in volume to replace japanese or USA investment.

Thailand will lose massively if it goes all out to befriend China and move to disavow its friendship with the USA. This junta needs to wind its neck in fast or the USA might just take these threats seriously and just realign itself with someone else in the region to replace thailand.

Then listen to the wailing from the amaart and junta supporters that they no longer get courted by the USA and have to kowtow in Beijing. The mainland Chinese won't be nearly as nice or financiallt beneficial as doing business with the USA.

"What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?"

Absolutely nothing at all.

Exactly. There is barely a single investment from MNCs that can't be shifted slowly out of Thailand over a 5 year period,be it cars or any other business.

The Thais are absolutely playing with fire if they think the world needs their cheap labour so desperately. The capacity of these factories can be moved in a few years. It just takes decisions.

So while the Thais have a fit,they better hope that Toyota or Chevrolet or Honda dont decide to find a new best friend.

The Thais are dealing from an incredibly weak position. These MNCs can have a functioning car industry up and running in Myanmar in 5 years. The junta and the NLA need to wind their necks in now.

[selftaopath]

If Thailand prefers China to the US, and by default Japan, the US will stop providing Thailand with military assistance and both the US and Japan could pull manufacturing out of Thailand. The US and Japan have huge industrial investments in Thailand and create a lot for the Thai economy including exports and jobs.

Japan is afraid of China after having China threaten to take some of its islands and block shipping and airline routes. The US sailed some carrier groups through the area and made China back down. The US also made China back down from claiming all fishing rights in the S. China Sea - a place where several SE Asian countries including Thailand rely on for fishing.

If Thailand is stupid enough to play China against the US and by default Japan, it could lose US and Japanese manufacturing causing its economy to crash.

The US and Japan have already invested in large tracts of land in Burma at Yangon, as a backstop to Thailand. The US signed a deal with the Phils to move military forces back into Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base which will be a large boost to the Phil's economy.

Who is being left out and "Who is Sleeping?"

Thailand is usually too big for its britches and this writer should figure out that neither the US nor Japan needs Thailand at all.

Thank you for your post.

[hupaknomore]

"Birds of feather flock together".

Thailand is as corrupted as China. However, it would be a grave mistake to mingle with China ( big neighbour), which could start manipulating Thailnd's economy withing couple of years..

[selftaopath]

I love how this discussion is always framed from "USA needs Thailand" with zero consideration for vice versa.

What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?

Thailand has everything to lose and little to gain from China. Do these numpties imagine the Chinese will move their manufacturing to thailand in volume to replace japanese or USA investment.

Thailand will lose massively if it goes all out to befriend China and move to disavow its friendship with the USA. This junta needs to wind its neck in fast or the USA might just take these threats seriously and just realign itself with someone else in the region to replace thailand.

Then listen to the wailing from the amaart and junta supporters that they no longer get courted by the USA and have to kowtow in Beijing. The mainland Chinese won't be nearly as nice or financiallt beneficial as doing business with the USA.

I also find many people in our Isaan village do not have much love for "Chinese" i.e. Thai/Chinese. Doubt they're going to "warm up" to mainland Chinese soon.

I think the Junta will not be able to "have it's cake and eat it too." But I suspect the Chinese are coming - not literally.

[Thai at Heart]

I love how this discussion is always framed from "USA needs Thailand" with zero consideration for vice versa.

What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?

Thailand has everything to lose and little to gain from China. Do these numpties imagine the Chinese will move their manufacturing to thailand in volume to replace japanese or USA investment.

Thailand will lose massively if it goes all out to befriend China and move to disavow its friendship with the USA. This junta needs to wind its neck in fast or the USA might just take these threats seriously and just realign itself with someone else in the region to replace thailand.

Then listen to the wailing from the amaart and junta supporters that they no longer get courted by the USA and have to kowtow in Beijing. The mainland Chinese won't be nearly as nice or financiallt beneficial as doing business with the USA.

I also find many people in our Isaan village do not have much love for "Chinese" i.e. Thai/Chinese. Doubt they're going to "warm up" to mainland Chinese soon.

I think the Junta will not be able to "have it's cake and eat it too." But I suspect the Chinese are coming - not literally.

I don't see why anyone needs to drag this to a China versus USA thing anyway. The current idiotic Thais seem to think they can play one against the other to get away with their current shenanigans.

Who knows. Maybe Thaksin is in Beijing right now planning his return in the back of Beijing's support.

The current junta are starting to flounder because they have stupidly dragged themselves into this. Do they honestly believe the world thinks their actions recently are legitimate?

Maybe they follow their farang supporters on here too much. they created a kangaroo court. No amount of lipstick can change a kangaroo.

[selftaopath]

I love how this discussion is always framed from "USA needs Thailand" with zero consideration for vice versa.

What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?

Thailand has everything to lose and little to gain from China. Do these numpties imagine the Chinese will move their manufacturing to thailand in volume to replace japanese or USA investment.

Thailand will lose massively if it goes all out to befriend China and move to disavow its friendship with the USA. This junta needs to wind its neck in fast or the USA might just take these threats seriously and just realign itself with someone else in the region to replace thailand.

Then listen to the wailing from the amaart and junta supporters that they no longer get courted by the USA and have to kowtow in Beijing. The mainland Chinese won't be nearly as nice or financiallt beneficial as doing business with the USA.

"What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?"

Absolutely nothing at all.

Exactly. There is barely a single investment from MNCs that can't be shifted slowly out of Thailand over a 5 year period,be it cars or any other business.

The Thais are absolutely playing with fire if they think the world needs their cheap labour so desperately. The capacity of these factories can be moved in a few years. It just takes decisions.

So while the Thais have a fit,they better hope that Toyota or Chevrolet or Honda dont decide to find a new best friend.

The Thais are dealing from an incredibly weak position. These MNCs can have a functioning car industry up and running in Myanmar in 5 years. The junta and the NLA need to wind their necks in now.

I agree. I believe Myanmar is going to put a big dent in the Thai economy e.g. tourism and possibly manufacturing too. Then Thailand is really going to find out a/b REALITY, which it dances away from constantly.

[Jeremy50]

Curious why cobra gold always takes place within spitting distance of Pattaya.

[Thai at Heart]

I love how this discussion is always framed from "USA needs Thailand" with zero consideration for vice versa.

What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?

Thailand has everything to lose and little to gain from China. Do these numpties imagine the Chinese will move their manufacturing to thailand in volume to replace japanese or USA investment.

Thailand will lose massively if it goes all out to befriend China and move to disavow its friendship with the USA. This junta needs to wind its neck in fast or the USA might just take these threats seriously and just realign itself with someone else in the region to replace thailand.

Then listen to the wailing from the amaart and junta supporters that they no longer get courted by the USA and have to kowtow in Beijing. The mainland Chinese won't be nearly as nice or financiallt beneficial as doing business with the USA.

"What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?"

Absolutely nothing at all.

Exactly. There is barely a single investment from MNCs that can't be shifted slowly out of Thailand over a 5 year period,be it cars or any other business.

The Thais are absolutely playing with fire if they think the world needs their cheap labour so desperately. The capacity of these factories can be moved in a few years. It just takes decisions.

So while the Thais have a fit,they better hope that Toyota or Chevrolet or Honda dont decide to find a new best friend.

The Thais are dealing from an incredibly weak position. These MNCs can have a functioning car industry up and running in Myanmar in 5 years. The junta and the NLA need to wind their necks in now.

I agree. I believe Myanmar is going to put a big dent in the Thai economy e.g. tourism and possibly manufacturing too. Then Thailand is really going to find out a/b REALITY, which it dances away from constantly.

FDI is drying up into Thailand already,for 3 years, and look,no GDP growth. Nothing.

This nationalistic diatribe is getting boring. A bunch of village ninnies believeing they have something the whole world wants so desperately, that they can play 100% by their own rules.

Idiots all of them

Edited January 30, 2015 by Thai at Heart

[marinediscoking]

The Junta is truly getting desperate now! The Thai's know the Chinese better than the Americans do. They know they cannot be trusted and the only use they have for them is selling them fruit and produce and getting cheap made sellable products in return. As said before there is no way the Chinese can replace the manufacturing base that the Europeans, American and Japanese companies have set up here.

It is against American Law to have military joint exercises with a Junta controlled government! The Obama administration is pushing things to modify it as being only humanitarian relieve exercises instead. The Junta is playing this up to portray it as being the regular "Cobra Gold" exercises.

[GinBoy2]

I 'think' (usual disclaimers, only my humble opinion) that like it or not Thailand in terms of strategic importance to the US has declined steadily since the 70's and the end of the cold war. Thailand used to be one of those 'useful' regimes in SEA to counter the communist insurgencies throughout the region, and not forgetting at it's peak a useful staging post during the Vietnam conflict.

Sadly for those with inflated images of Thailand's global importance, those days are gone. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and interestingly, and ever increasingly Vietnam offer much more strategically to the US in Asia than Thailand ever does.

Thailand may be cozying up to China, but it's their aggressiveness in the South China Seas that is pushing the US more towards Vietnam rather than to a country whose military seem more, how shall I say this...internally focused...than providing any real deterrent to external threats.

So Thai junta's come and go with regularity, corrupt governments come and go with regularity, and the US will make some gestures or reproach, which will outrage the Juntanista's, but at the end of the day, the US doesn't really care, or need to care what goes on here anymore

Edited January 30, 2015 by GinBoy2

[noitom]

China will eventually plunder Thailand's women to offset the gender imbalance in its population. China will also co-opt Thailand's food and use its "inferior" people as cheap labor.<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

If Thailand prefers China to the US, and by default Japan, the US will stop providing Thailand with military assistance and both the US and Japan could pull manufacturing out of Thailand. The US and Japan have huge industrial investments in Thailand and create a lot for the Thai economy including exports and jobs.

Japan is afraid of China after having China threaten to take some of its islands and block shipping and airline routes. The US sailed some carrier groups through the area and made China back down. The US also made China back down from claiming all fishing rights in the S. China Sea - a place where several SE Asian countries including Thailand rely on for fishing.

If Thailand is stupid enough to play China against the US and by default Japan, it could lose US and Japanese manufacturing causing its economy to crash.

The US and Japan have already invested in large tracts of land in Burma at Yangon, as a backstop to Thailand. The US signed a deal with the Phils to move military forces back into Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base which will be a large boost to the Phil's economy.

Who is being left out and "Who is Sleeping?"

Thailand is usually too big for its britches and this writer should figure out that neither the US nor Japan needs Thailand at all.

[konying]

If Thailand prefers China to the US, and by default Japan, the US will stop providing Thailand with military assistance and both the US and Japan could pull manufacturing out of Thailand. The US and Japan have huge industrial investments in Thailand and create a lot for the Thai economy including exports and jobs.

Japan is afraid of China after having China threaten to take some of its islands and block shipping and airline routes. The US sailed some carrier groups through the area and made China back down. The US also made China back down from claiming all fishing rights in the S. China Sea - a place where several SE Asian countries including Thailand rely on for fishing.

If Thailand is stupid enough to play China against the US and by default Japan, it could lose US and Japanese manufacturing causing its economy to crash.

The US and Japan have already invested in large tracts of land in Burma at Yangon, as a backstop to Thailand. The US signed a deal with the Phils to move military forces back into Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base which will be a large boost to the Phil's economy.

Who is being left out and "Who is Sleeping?"

Thailand is usually too big for its britches and this writer should figure out that neither the US nor Japan needs Thailand at all.

US aid to thailand is $3.5 million per year.

US and Japan does not have investments, private companies do;)

[ratcatcher]

Curious why cobra gold always takes place within spitting distance of Pattaya.

Apparently there are some good restaurants in the town.

[NeverSure]

If Thailand prefers China to the US, and by default Japan, the US will stop providing Thailand with military assistance and both the US and Japan could pull manufacturing out of Thailand. The US and Japan have huge industrial investments in Thailand and create a lot for the Thai economy including exports and jobs.

Japan is afraid of China after having China threaten to take some of its islands and block shipping and airline routes. The US sailed some carrier groups through the area and made China back down. The US also made China back down from claiming all fishing rights in the S. China Sea - a place where several SE Asian countries including Thailand rely on for fishing.

If Thailand is stupid enough to play China against the US and by default Japan, it could lose US and Japanese manufacturing causing its economy to crash.

The US and Japan have already invested in large tracts of land in Burma at Yangon, as a backstop to Thailand. The US signed a deal with the Phils to move military forces back into Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base which will be a large boost to the Phil's economy.

Who is being left out and "Who is Sleeping?"

Thailand is usually too big for its britches and this writer should figure out that neither the US nor Japan needs Thailand at all.

US aid to thailand is $3.5 million per year.

US and Japan does not have investments, private companies do;)

The US and Japan can put embargos on Thailand making it illegal for private companies to do business. The US sells and gives modern weapons to Thailand including F16's and the munitions to hang on them.

There are so many ways the US, Japan and even Europe could abandon Thailand that I think you should rethink your comments.

It should be obvious to all that if the junta trashes the West and buddies up to China that it will lose in so many ways. That's not to mention the crocodile that China is and how the loss of the US would let China damage Thailand.

[konying]

If Thailand prefers China to the US, and by default Japan, the US will stop providing Thailand with military assistance and both the US and Japan could pull manufacturing out of Thailand. The US and Japan have huge industrial investments in Thailand and create a lot for the Thai economy including exports and jobs.

Japan is afraid of China after having China threaten to take some of its islands and block shipping and airline routes. The US sailed some carrier groups through the area and made China back down. The US also made China back down from claiming all fishing rights in the S. China Sea - a place where several SE Asian countries including Thailand rely on for fishing.

If Thailand is stupid enough to play China against the US and by default Japan, it could lose US and Japanese manufacturing causing its economy to crash.

The US and Japan have already invested in large tracts of land in Burma at Yangon, as a backstop to Thailand. The US signed a deal with the Phils to move military forces back into Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base which will be a large boost to the Phil's economy.

Who is being left out and "Who is Sleeping?"

Thailand is usually too big for its britches and this writer should figure out that neither the US nor Japan needs Thailand at all.

US aid to thailand is $3.5 million per year.

US and Japan does not have investments, private companies do;)

The US and Japan can put embargos on Thailand making it illegal for private companies to do business. The US sells and gives modern weapons to Thailand including F16's and the munitions to hang on them.

There are so many ways the US, Japan and even Europe could abandon Thailand that I think you should rethink your comments.

It should be obvious to all that if the junta trashes the West and buddies up to China that it will lose in so many ways. That's not to mention the crocodile that China is and how the loss of the US would let China damage Thailand.

Yes i am sure Japan would put embargo on its bread and butter companies and remind me again who are those big American investors in Thailand?

[JohnnyJazz]

I'll have to ask my neighbours whose son is currently studying in London if they have any plan to send him to Beijing next year. Who knows, Abhisit ("Mark") successor might be known as "Brother Chang" and praised for his fluent Putonghua ;-)

[asdecas]

Just as well Thailand has no littoral bordering the South China Sea. If they had, they would discover in short order the kind of friend China, with its nine-dash line, is.

[GinBoy2]

Curious why cobra gold always takes place within spitting distance of Pattaya.

Apparently there are some good restaurants in the town.

and I thought it was the abundance of 'temples' <cough>

[geriatrickid]

Squeeze the USA and the financial markets will respond. Financial institutions do not like instability. All it takes is a few words with the "market" and Thailand may find itself without access to the world capital markets. The USA is not alone in its position and the EU would act in lockstep with the USA if some new regulations were imposed, or if the rules on money laundering and taxation were enforced more strictly. China isn't going to be much help in those circumstances, as China has an investment stake in the international market. The Chinese don't toss their money around unless there are guaranteed returns.

[rijb]

If China gets more aggressive, it might be wiser for Thailand to get closer to their other neighbors.

The Philippines and Vietnam are forming partnerships. And they're also talking to Malaysia, India and others.

Edited January 30, 2015 by rijb

[kamahele]

While my opinion would be that Thailand has lost some importance for the USA in recent years as other countries in the area have become more willing to work with the US, it is still considered important, a sign of which would be the size of their workforce attached to the embassy which is significant. If Thailand wants to veer towards China, so be it. To their benefit, they have played the US and China very well over the past few decades getting benefits from both.

[rametindallas]

Thanet said the US had a clear economic interest in Asia and, therefore, had to deal with Thailand.

'had to' is a lot different than 'want to'. The US Community Organizer in Chief is too busy bowing to Saudi Kings to care that China is encroaching on all the Western Pacific countries' territorial waters that border the South China Sea. Non of the US' traditional allies in the Western Pacific are getting support from Washington DC. US envoys meeting with the disgraced former 'elected' government of Yingluck Thaksin is an affront to the current government and, realistically, the current government of Thailand is the only one the US can do business with. Poking a finger in Prayut's eye is no way to gain influence in Thailand. Sucking up the the Thaksin cause is a loser for sure as the Junta will never let him back in power again. The US drove the Ho Chi Minh government into the arms of the communist back in 1949, lost their bases in the Philippine Islands in 1991, and they continue to make more enemies than friends. Which countries in SEA are friendly to the US? All the friends they have now are either bought or dependent on the US for the military umbrella they provide.

[wwest5829]

If Thailand prefers China to the US, and by default Japan, the US will stop providing Thailand with military assistance and both the US and Japan could pull manufacturing out of Thailand. The US and Japan have huge industrial investments in Thailand and create a lot for the Thai economy including exports and jobs.

Japan is afraid of China after having China threaten to take some of its islands and block shipping and airline routes. The US sailed some carrier groups through the area and made China back down. The US also made China back down from claiming all fishing rights in the S. China Sea - a place where several SE Asian countries including Thailand rely on for fishing.

If Thailand is stupid enough to play China against the US and by default Japan, it could lose US and Japanese manufacturing causing its economy to crash.

The US and Japan have already invested in large tracts of land in Burma at Yangon, as a backstop to Thailand. The US signed a deal with the Phils to move military forces back into Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base which will be a large boost to the Phil's economy.

Who is being left out and "Who is Sleeping?"

Thailand is usually too big for its britches and this writer should figure out that neither the US nor Japan needs Thailand at all.

I fear you overstate the situation. Thailand will try its traditional role of balancing the interests of the two players, China vs U.S. interests off each other thus being able to maintain its modicum of independence. I do not think this will be a clearly available balance but I think this is the traditional thinking being used. The U.S., Japan, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc are not anywhere near "winning" against the Chinese claims in the South China Sea. China, too, is playing its traditional role and will try to reach accommodation with each claimant one at a time with China being able to gain its objectives. I believe that neither U.S. nor Japan will withdraw investment on political grounds but rather economic grounds if Thailand becomes unstable. In the meantime continuing development of other area countries will be explored and developed where possible. I agree, a good deal of the current competition will focus on economic investment and therein is a danger to Thailand in dealing with China. Currently, it appears that the Thai approach toward society and politics is inline with the Chinese thinking. Bottom line, and I apologize but I think you learn too strongly toward a nationalistic approach in your post. I just take a, what I think, is a less nationalistic approach.

[wwest5829]

I love how this discussion is always framed from "USA needs Thailand" with zero consideration for vice versa.

What exactly does the USA need Thailand for?

Thailand has everything to lose and little to gain from China. Do these numpties imagine the Chinese will move their manufacturing to thailand in volume to replace japanese or USA investment.

Thailand will lose massively if it goes all out to befriend China and move to disavow its friendship with the USA. This junta needs to wind its neck in fast or the USA might just take these threats seriously and just realign itself with someone else in the region to replace thailand.

Then listen to the wailing from the amaart and junta supporters that they no longer get courted by the USA and have to kowtow in Beijing. The mainland Chinese won't be nearly as nice or financiallt beneficial as doing business with the USA.

I agree. The thinking seems to me to be short term benefit (investment in rail development, tourism). If we look at Chinese recent involvement in Africa and Latin America one can see that there have been problems with a clash of cultural interests. Thailand is certainly recognized as a culture closer to China, especially in light of the current government, but I predict there will be a result similar as seen elsewhere as the Chinese approach things in their usual manner. Thais will resist what they will consider as a too disadvantageous, overbearing manner. You know, we read about some Chinese tourists behaving poorly in light of international standards but we seem to forget that the Chinese government is also trying to find its way in pursuit of their traditional m.o. But having to deal with international standards not based on its own cultural mores.