Dr Visanu : Election possible next January

[webfact]

Dr Visanu : Election possible next January



BANGKOK: -- Deputy Prime Minister Visanu Krua-ngarma said Thursday that only 3-4 election-related laws would be required before there is to be an election and the election could take place in January next year.

He admitted that he did not have an exact idea of how many organic laws related to the Constitution would have to be drawn up but not all of them are important and they can wait to be enacted by the next parliament.

He said that a few organic laws would be required namely the election law, the political party law and the election commission law. But if a referendum is required, then there must be a law on referendum, he added.

Asked whether an election can be held three months after the promulgation of the new charter, Mr Visanu said it was possible but a few important organic laws had to be enacted first.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/dr-visanu-election-possible-next-january


-- Thai PBS 2015-02-06

[NongKhaiKid]

Is Visanu a medical doctor because this could be a case of ' physician heal thy self ' if he's talking out of turn about election dates.

In the current climate anyone talking about elections must be very confident of their position or in need of something a little more professional than AA.

[NongKhaiKid]

Incidentally there's a different version on the BP website where it quotes Visanu as saying the govt expects to announce a poll date next January NOT the election to take place that month.

The BP also calls the DPM's comments a ' prediction '.

One statement, two newspapers and two different versions !

Edited February 5, 2015 by NongKhaiKid

[Crazy chef 1]

If till January all political opponents are adjusted or impeached than there is no reason why not....

[Somtamnication]

But but did he get the "approval" to say those things.

[stickyrice2000]

Next January? I don't see it coming.

[Thailand]

We are hoping to have the fix in by next January when we may or may not propose election dates?

[ExPratt]

As much as I'd love to see it. I thought the whole Suthep protests followed by Coup were about reforming the constitution , not doing a partial reform

Anyway whats it go to do with Hank Marvin

Edited February 6, 2015 by ExPratt

[ExPratt]

Double post

Edited February 6, 2015 by ExPratt

[Bluespunk]

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow,
Out, out brief candle,

Or as Annie said:

Edited February 6, 2015 by Bluespunk

[Bluespunk]

Incidentally there's a different version on the BP website where it quotes Visanu as saying the govt expects to announce a poll date next January NOT the election to take place that month.

The BP also calls the DPM's comments a ' prediction '.

One statement, two newspapers and two different versions !

Quelle Surprise

[NongKhaiKid]

Incidentally there's a different version on the BP website where it quotes Visanu as saying the govt expects to announce a poll date next January NOT the election to take place that month.

The BP also calls the DPM's comments a ' prediction '.

One statement, two newspapers and two different versions !

Quelle Surprise

Do you think it's a conspiracy amongst the reporters since controversial pieces can be risky they do the next best thing and agree to print different versions ?

A real walk on the wild side.

[passiflora]

next January but of which year?

[binjalin]

translation : "as soon as we have it all fixed so we know who will be elected we will have an election"

PS "organic law"? doe he mean "hobsons choice law"?

Edited February 6, 2015 by binjalin

[ratcatcher]

As much as I'd love to see it. I thought the whole Suthep protests followed by Coup were about reforming the constitution , not doing a partial reform

Anyway whats it go to do with Hank Marvin

Just to touch bass on your comment, it's called Shadow Dancing in some countries.

[Lupatria]

Another glass bowl politician.

[Suffinator]

So in effect he hasn't got the slightest idea of what laws are required to allow an election and he's the Deputy PM.

You couldn't make this stuff up and any seasoned politician in the west will be pissing their pants laughing at such a mess.

[Caveat Emptor]

But but did he get the "approval" to say those things.

This is quite a point and i would think a certain gentleman would ' frown ' on unauthorised public releases to say the least.

[trainman34014]

The day before yesterday it was 'after February', yesterday it was 'February' and today it's 'January'. At this rate, by next month we will be having an election by the second quarter of this year !

What a bunch of Cretins.

[IMA_FARANG]

I said it before, and I will say it gain.

The events just before the takeover by th Junta last year proved that the Thai lectorate is not yet capable of holding elections without violence and eventually killing each other with grenades in the streets.

I wish I could say that has changed in the last 6 months or so. but I don't believe it has .

For that reason, i still believe that an honest, fair, non-violent and Democratic election in Thailand is still impossible, and will be for several years more.

But that is just my opinion.

Edited February 6, 2015 by IMA_FARANG

[rickirs]

Take a look at the history of the 2007 Constitution:

- Military Junta leaders (incl. Prayuth) overthrow elected PM Thaksin Shinawatra Sept. 19, 2006

- Junta justified coup needed to save democracy claiming systemic corruption under Thaksin

- Junta suspends the 1997 Constitution

- Junta handpicks 1,982 members for a National People’s Assembly

- NPA nominates 200 of its own members to write a permanent constitution

- Junta reduces constitution charter group to 35

- Junta imposed interim constitution removing civil liberties and provides itself with final authority

- Interim Constitution changes “NPA” to “National Legislative Assembly”

- August 19, 2007 referendum with 56.7% in favor, 41.4% against, and 1.9% invalidated

- August 24, 2007 new Constitution became law

- Government general election held Dec. 23, 2007

- Thaksin allied party People’s Power Party wins 47.5% seats

- Democrats win 34.6% seats

- PPP Samak Sundaravej becomes PM on Jan. 29, 2008

If the historical timeline above has any relevance, it took 16 months from the Thaksin overthrow to a new PM, including a constitutional referendum. Dr. Visanu's projection of an election in January 2016 represents a total time of 20 months and that's likely without any constitutional referendum (Junta says unnecessary and NLA says desirable).

Considering the Junta’s expanded agenda for “reforms,” Dr. Visanu’s estimate appears reasonable compared to the 2007 electoral process. According to the CDC, a constitutional referendum would add another 3 months to the electoral process, assuming a simple majority supported the proposed draft, that would also seem justified.

If there’s no majority in favor of the proposed constitution (a reason for not having a referendum at all!), the Junta may just continue its rule of the nation indefinitely without regard to any commitment for returning it to a democratically elected government. If in all this time the Junta becomes risk-sensitive to again overthrow the government, the last scenario is likely with the Junta-led government evolving into a Chinese/North Korean-style one party system.

[DM07]

DM07: election possible tomorrow!

...not very likely, though....

[rubl]

So in effect he hasn't got the slightest idea of what laws are required to allow an election and he's the Deputy PM.

You couldn't make this stuff up and any seasoned politician in the west will be pissing their pants laughing at such a mess.

Absolutely! Seasoned politicians in the West know both how to tell terrible lies with a straight face and know how to explain that what they said actually means what it now should mean.

This only makes one long for the return of that former Dept. PM Pol. Captain Chalerm who wrote a constitution just for the fun of it

[rubl]

Take a look at the history of the 2007 Constitution:

- Military Junta leaders (incl. Prayuth) overthrow elected PM Thaksin Shinawatra Sept. 19, 2006

- Junta justified coup needed to save democracy claiming systemic corruption under Thaksin

- Junta suspends the 1997 Constitution

- Junta handpicks 1,982 members for a National People’s Assembly

- NPA nominates 200 of its own members to write a permanent constitution

- Junta reduces constitution charter group to 35

- Junta imposed interim constitution removing civil liberties and provides itself with final authority

- Interim Constitution changes “NPA” to “National Legislative Assembly”

- August 19, 2007 referendum with 56.7% in favor, 41.4% against, and 1.9% invalidated

- August 24, 2007 new Constitution became law

- Government general election held Dec. 23, 2007

- Thaksin allied party People’s Power Party wins 47.5% seats

- Democrats win 34.6% seats

- PPP Samak Sundaravej becomes PM on Jan. 29, 2008

If the historical timeline above has any relevance, it took 16 months from the Thaksin overthrow to a new PM, including a constitutional referendum. Dr. Visanu's projection of an election in January 2016 represents a total time of 20 months and that's likely without any constitutional referendum (Junta says unnecessary and NLA says desirable).

Considering the Junta’s expanded agenda for “reforms,” Dr. Visanu’s estimate appears reasonable compared to the 2007 electoral process. According to the CDC, a constitutional referendum would add another 3 months to the electoral process, assuming a simple majority supported the proposed draft, that would also seem justified.

If there’s no majority in favor of the proposed constitution (a reason for not having a referendum at all!), the Junta may just continue its rule of the nation indefinitely without regard to any commitment for returning it to a democratically elected government. If in all this time the Junta becomes risk-sensitive to again overthrow the government, the last scenario is likely with the Junta-led government evolving into a Chinese/North Korean-style one party system.

interesting comparison, especially with all 'likely', 'projection', 'estimate' and so.

Mind you, this time there's reform, constitution drafting AND elections to be considered with any laws related to that. That's a wee bit more than just some minor additions to an existing constitution.

PS if calculating periods you should take similar begin and end points. So the first from 2006-09-19 to 2007-12-23 would be hardly more than 15 months