Bye Bye Europe - Exapats and Holiday Goers.

[Asiantravel]

Well where all the money people who kissed the dollar good bye 2 years ago.

Please do not count America out and gone

The American Bankers and their controllers have done a great job

I heard all the rich from all the world want to come to America and are doing it now

"The American Bankers and their controllers have done a great job"

De-Dollarization Accelerates: Russia Launches SWIFT-Alternative Linking 91 Entities

http://russia-insider.com/en/business/2015/02/19/3654

[Mencken]

Thanks for the charts pib. THB has further weakend to about 32.88 but we've been here before.

I'm not stating that the sky is falling. My comments really addressed yet another nail in the coffin. Its not the death knell. It csn be a harbinger.

Its not that the condo market is supported by farang, its that Europeans will no longer be buying. Condos have been a poor value for years.

Its not that strays won't find a way to enjoy ten days in the su, its that it used to be sixty, then thirty.

Regarding most of EU and N.EU currencies and Russia, losing 30-60% of purchasing power is a huge deal.

Then you have the others Brazil, Turkey, Korea and Japan. Japan might see 140+. A great time for Muricans to visit Japan. Japanese overseas otherwise awash in perpetual recession, not so much.

Thailand has to move. Vietnam devalued. I don't see Phils not devaluing either.

With the Fed raising, it will only strengthen the USD further.

As mentioned prior, Thailand should print some money snd spend it on infrastructure.

Rates are high, they can lower rates, lowering the baht - but then banks not lend so it does not overheat the economy. Already too much cash sloshing about.

Its been a goldilocks economy since 97. Jobs are still strong, wages weak amd prices, inflation up.

Yeah, EU scousers gonna hang around Pattaya with their last breath, but no denying losing 25% of purch power suck.

The US already did QE, its now looking to raise rates. The economy is one of the global strong points.

EU has neg bond yields -EVEN ON CORPORATE DEBT. Mind blowing.

Don't expect tbe Euro to bounce back, nor oil for that matter.

Good luck, the new normal.

PS as for condo, I cant see how the last year in slides in currencies has done anything but hurt prospective condo purchasers.

Edited March 11, 2015 by Mencken

[fletchsmile]

The EURO has surely been taking it on the chin lately with more of a beating to probably occur....but what goes around can come around to other currencies also eventually.

Per 10 year charts from XE.com they show how the Euro-Baht, USD-Baht, and GBP-Baht have oscillated over the last 10 years. Looks like the USD-THB has been fairly stable (i.e., give or take a few baht) since around late 2006 and the GBP-TBH has been fairly stable (i.e., give or take a few baht) since mid 2008. Yes, I know plus or minus a few baht can make a big difference in exchange rate, but over a long term plus or minus a few baht is normal oscillation. And it could very well be the current EUR-THB exchange rate of around 35 or a little low is setting a new normal oscillation mid point, but who really knows in the wild world of currency exchange rates and the myriad of known and unknown/unexpected events that can change the rate. Heck, many financial analysts are saying the EUR and USD will reach parity...then again many financial analysts have their own financial agenda in making projections and their projections may not be much better than a psychic.

Useful to look back over longer periods like 10 yeats. But I'm not so comfortable drawing conclusions from 2006 onwards. GFC and events that followed eg very low interest rates and QE have distorted a lot of things, not to mention the flight to USD when things go (and in this case went) pear-shaped. BTW Totally different discussion when that disappears, and one day may not return

10 years is OK, but I prefer to look back to the start of the century/millenium. In addition to having a nice round number certain whole feel about it I'd be hesitant to go back much before that because of the Asian crisis in 1997, and the fact that before that the THB was pegged. That 14 yr 2 month period is a bit more interesting

Since Dec 1999 to 28 Feb 2015, i.e 21st century to end of last month, vs THB:

USD is down 14%

GBP is down 18%

Personally those are long term trends I see continuing, i.e USD/THB slowly downwards vs THB by say 1% or so a year on average (not forgetting all the rollecoaster ups and downs)

People might be surprised that the EUR went from around THB 37.5 to THB 34.6 over this period. (source BOT buying sight rates) i.e

EUR is down only 8% ish over this total period

BTW My favourite store of value as a currency over this period that isn't THB for someone living in Thailand is SGD:

SGD is up 5% over that time

So for all you EURophiles compared to GBP and USD your glass is half full this century so far

Cheers

Fletch

Edited March 11, 2015 by fletchsmile

[MaeJoMTB]

I lived in ''France'' for quite some time, and it does not even come close to ''Thailand'' in 90 percent of most aspects..

The Friendlyness and the overall general Efficiency here , knocks spots of ''France''...

I could go on and on about it, but best not .... but ''France'' does not come anywhere near ''Thailand''...

Great bread, cheese and wine beats false Thai smiles IMHO.

[elgordo38]

Game over for Europeans. But why German pensioners aside ? Germany is on the Euro too.

Did you not see the news from Germany that Germans are travelling more and more all the time due to a good economy rising wages good paying jobs low unemployment etc. They were also lined up at the Mercedes Benz dealers shopping for new cars. They are flush with cash and with negative interest rates why save? for retirement? saving money today is a suckers game. Get something for your money while it still retains some value. Live the good life like the Jews did while Moses was up the mountain hammering out the 10 commandments.

[elgordo38]

Well where all the money people who kissed the dollar good bye 2 years ago.

Please do not count America out and gone

The American Bankers and their controllers have done a great job

I heard all the rich from all the world want to come to America and are doing it now

"The American Bankers and their controllers have done a great job"

De-Dollarization Accelerates: Russia Launches SWIFT-Alternative Linking 91 Entities

http://russia-insider.com/en/business/2015/02/19/3654

American Bankers is spelled wrong its American Banksters.

[gandalf12]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Thank god that britain for once was diplomatically correct for not joining the euro money go round err i mean down.

Agreed but I think it was more luck than design

[elgordo38]

Long stay holiday goers already rattled by the visa nonsense...

Is it game over for Europeans? Even Scandinavian currencies have been hit hard.

With the Russisns gone, is it game over for Thailand?

What does the sinking Euro have to do with "the visa nonsense?'

I've been hearing the "final nail in the coffin" nonsense for 15 or more years every time something happens. Undoubtedly it's a blow for Euro dependent expats, but not all of them are living here on just enough to survive. In all probability the European economies will recover and the Euro will regain at least some of its lost value in a few years. For those expats who have already invested in a home or condo and have settled in, it may mean some belt-tightening but they should be able to weather the cyclical hit to the Euro. Those who cannot survive a short-term exchange devaluation probably weren't contributing that much to the Thai economy anyway and it would be better for everyone if they returned to their debt-ridden home countries. It's the financial world's way of culling the weak.

The same will be true for the Russians and others. Problems get solved and what goes down can just as easily go back up.

The Thai economy has survived the 1997 financial crash, several coups, tsunamis, the bird flu, political unrest in Bangkok and in the south. Probably the survival of the Eurozone, deflation in western economies and massive debt in the west & a return to recession there are more compelling concern for game over in those economies.

Yes your right but if you took the warm weather and cheap labor out of the equation (and global warming) things would be a whole lot different. Even the politics here cannot kill the first two.

[puukao]

Why is AMERICA so strong.....soon to be 1.00 against our once powerful EURO!!! I am doomed....I am doomed!!!

So sick of these good-looking, happy Americans who can live in California or NYC.....so arrogant and now their currency is the greatest!!! Why did we need them to help us in WW2.....we must get stronger, we are too weak!!!

signed,

Uncle Sam

[German Viking]

Thank god that britain for once was diplomatically correct for not joining the euro money go round err i mean down.

We should also step out of the EU back to DM and let the Banana states alone, time to stop the milking system.

[German Viking]

Whoever leaves will be replaced, as always happens. The expat population in Thailand goes up every year. Maybe more Americans will be coming over. The dollar is doing fine and poised to do even better. And then there's the Chinese.

The chinese mass tourists are stingy like hell, just the quality tourists who thailand has invited.

[German Viking]

Game over for Europeans. But why German pensioners aside ? Germany is on the Euro too.

They get massive pensions.

Who getting massive pensions!!???

[German Viking]

Why is AMERICA so strong.....soon to be 1.00 against our once powerful EURO!!! I am doomed....I am doomed!!!

So sick of these good-looking, happy Americans who can live in California or NYC.....so arrogant and now their currency is the greatest!!! Why did we need them to help us in WW2.....we must get stronger, we are too weak!!!

signed,

Uncle Sam

I can wait until this bubble burst USA is bankrupt, they don't own their country anymore.

[MrWorldwide]

Hmmm - some interesting claims here - lets look at how the Euro has fared against it's currency 'competition' over the last 12 months.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=GBP&view=1Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=1Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=CHF&view=1Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=THB&view=1Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=AUD&view=1Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=CNY&view=1Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=SGD&view=1Y

I dont care who you are, or how many Euros you're earning, anything you import is subject to at least 20% VAT - probably not such a big deal if you're a German dentist driving a Merc, but for everyone else tied to the currency those charts dont paint a happy picture. As someone who still has the bulk of his life savings in AUD, I can relate to some of the pain - the difference is that Oz isnt trying to bail out countries which have no intention of repaying their debts.

[NeverSure]

Well where all the money people who kissed the dollar good bye 2 years ago.

Please do not count America out and gone

The American Bankers and their controllers have done a great job

I heard all the rich from all the world want to come to America and are doing it now

"The American Bankers and their controllers have done a great job"

De-Dollarization Accelerates: Russia Launches SWIFT-Alternative Linking 91 Entities

http://russia-insider.com/en/business/2015/02/19/3654

Russia has crashed. The rubble has crashed. Oil has crashed. No one will accept rubble for anything. Russia has to do business in USD. Sanctions against Russia cut it off from swift.

You are seeing desperation from Russia, not strength.

[NeverSure]

Why is AMERICA so strong.....soon to be 1.00 against our once powerful EURO!!! I am doomed....I am doomed!!!

So sick of these good-looking, happy Americans who can live in California or NYC.....so arrogant and now their currency is the greatest!!! Why did we need them to help us in WW2.....we must get stronger, we are too weak!!!

signed,

Uncle Sam

I can wait until this bubble burst USA is bankrupt, they don't own their country anymore.

Let's do a proper financial statement for the US government, not just look at debts. The US government has close to 200 trillion dollars in assets to include land, oil on that land, vast tracts of timber, buildings and valuable city real estate all across the country, it owns most of Alaska , most of the State of Utah and others...

If it went on a selling spree you'd see something different.

A lot of people just don't realize how big the US is or how much wealth, even in the form of natural resources, exists in it.

People including bankers have been forecasting the collapse of the US and the dollar since I was a banker and Nixon changed the dollar in the early 1970's and most of those people are now dead and the dollar is still the place to be.

[SheungWan]

It would be far more expensive for me to live in Europe than it is for me living here. Here I can live comfortably....at home I'd be on the streets. (metaphorically speaking).

Spain is very cheap.

House and apartment purchase prices cheaper than Thailand, rent not so.

And if you're British,

1.4 Euro to the GBP, at one point it was 1:1, so great exchange rate too.

Worth 40% more than 6 years ago, I might have ended up in Europe with an exchange rate like that.

The Euro is still strong

If you're British it was 1.50+ to the GBP not so long ago.

Around 1.45 for 2005, 2006 and half of 2007, then took a nose dive heading towards parity at 1.03 and change in 2008.

Those Brits who had purchased European property around the 1.40 mark were then the irritations of dinner table conversations. Now?

Edited March 12, 2015 by SheungWan

[jacko45k]

I was chatting with some Swedish guys recently in Pattaya and they feel they have been hit hard too.

This European experiment seems to be creating beggars of us all!

[pomchop]

Why is AMERICA so strong.....soon to be 1.00 against our once powerful EURO!!! I am doomed....I am doomed!!!

So sick of these good-looking, happy Americans who can live in California or NYC.....so arrogant and now their currency is the greatest!!! Why did we need them to help us in WW2.....we must get stronger, we are too weak!!!

signed,

Uncle Sam

I can wait until this bubble burst USA is bankrupt, they don't own their country anymore.

Let's do a proper financial statement for the US government, not just look at debts. The US government has close to 200 trillion dollars in assets to include land, oil on that land, vast tracts of timber, buildings and valuable city real estate all across the country, it owns most of Alaska , most of the State of Utah and others...

If it went on a selling spree you'd see something different.

A lot of people just don't realize how big the US is or how much wealth, even in the form of natural resources, exists in it.

People including bankers have been forecasting the collapse of the US and the dollar since I was a banker and Nixon changed the dollar in the early 1970's and most of those people are now dead and the dollar is still the place to be.

There is a reason that so many people all over the world try over and over to get into the USA. There is a reason that so many people have preferred to hold US dollars for decades. It is far far from perfect but in spite of all the doomsday predictions the USA is still an incredibly powerful economic force in the world....just imagine if we could manage to go a decade or so without spending a zillion bucks on various "conflicts" around the world and spent that money on upgrading USA infrastructure.

[fletchsmile]

Have to say I'm starting to watch EUR more closely. Haven't been a fan this century, but as we get closer to parity with USD I'm looking to see if there's a buying opportunity. Whether that's above or below parity I don't know. But it is looking interesting.

BTW Worth bearing in mind:

31 Dec 1999 the 2 currencies were almost at parity.

and EUR/USD:

7 Mar 1999 @ 1.0835

7 Mar 2015 @ 1.0843

So over that 15 year period to a few days ago they've ended up back where they started

Cheers

Fletch

[jdinasia]

People have been talking about the death knell of tourism and expats since before I first visited Thailand in 97. Much less since I moved here in 03

[Berkshire]

People have been talking about the death knell of tourism and expats since before I first visited Thailand in 97. Much less since I moved here in 03

Agree. It's as if certain people see their finances/lives going down the toilet, they then wish the same on others. But Thailand is rather resilient.

I would certainly love to see a weaker baht for my own personal benefit, but I can see why foreign currency keeps pouring into the country. It's actually becoming a safe haven, relative to everywhere else. With the BOT cutting rates, the baht should weaken a bit. And once the US Fed raises their rates, the US$ should be cruising.

[maidee]

it would be an ideal time ot get the most out of your baht and the maximum of euros, if you would be able to send back your stranded money in thailand to your home country

but, sadly there are so many rules, specially one where you can bring in how much you want, but to bring it back out, that is another problem

[morrobay]

Whoever leaves will be replaced, as always happens. The expat population in Thailand goes up every year. Maybe more Americans will be coming over. The dollar is doing fine and poised to do even better. And then there's the Chinese.

+1...Pattaya seems to be getting more crowded all the time.

Sure is but have you noticed who its getting more crowded with ? You can bet that the Thais will be the group doing the most replacements of any other decreasing population.

The domestic tourism and resident population is the one accelerating here

Edited March 12, 2015 by morrobay

[BernieOnTour]

Game over for Europeans. But why German pensioners aside ? Germany is on the Euro too.

They get massive pensions.

That is a baseless rumour.

20 years ago - yes. But already the reunion meant a 30% cut for those, who are now receiving a pension from the governmental pension system, because the eastern Mickey Mouse money was change 1:1 to German Mark with full pensions for the ex-communists.

The governmental pensions have been raised the last few years only by ridiculous small amounts.

Pension age was raised from 65 to 67, with huge deductions, if you retire before 67.

People with an average salary without a company pension can barely meet the requirements for retirement visa...

[NeverSure]

A government pension that's enough to meet retirement requirements would be quite good for some people. Today 65,000 baht would be about $US1,850 per month. FWIW my US SS is about $US2,500 per month which is the most one can get if retired at age 66 which I did, just under the wire before they raised the age a bit.

SS is based on how much one paid in and can be almost nothing.

Some people of course have other pensions and investment income and savings but I'm wondering about German pension only.

Do all Germans get enough to match 65,000 baht pm? A lot of other people don't get nearly that much.

[Anthony5]

Long stay holiday goers already rattled by the visa nonsense...

Is it game over for Europeans? Even Scandinavian currencies have been hit hard.

With the Russisns gone, is it game over for Thailand?

What does the sinking Euro have to do with "the visa nonsense?'

I've been hearing the "final nail in the coffin" nonsense for 15 or more years every time something happens. Undoubtedly it's a blow for Euro dependent expats, but not all of them are living here on just enough to survive. In all probability the European economies will recover and the Euro will regain at least some of its lost value in a few years. For those expats who have already invested in a home or condo and have settled in, it may mean some belt-tightening but they should be able to weather the cyclical hit to the Euro. Those who cannot survive a short-term exchange devaluation probably weren't contributing that much to the Thai economy anyway and it would be better for everyone if they returned to their debt-ridden home countries. It's the financial world's way of culling the weak.

The same will be true for the Russians and others. Problems get solved and what goes down can just as easily go back up.

The Thai economy has survived the 1997 financial crash, several coups, tsunamis, the bird flu, political unrest in Bangkok and in the south. Probably the survival of the Eurozone, deflation in western economies and massive debt in the west & a return to recession there are more compelling concern for game over in those economies.

Our Resident Thaier than Thai member want to add his usual apologist comments without reading the OP properly.

The Visa nonsense have nothing to do with the sinking Euro, only the visa nonsense ejected already planty of long stayers, and the decline of Euro and Ruble makes it only worse.

Indeed there has been talk about the final nail in the coffin for decades, but what we experience currently worldwide is a something we haven't seen for at least 80 years, and my guess is that it's gonna get only worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-142313872.html

China's economy: It's worse than you think

[MaeJoMTB]

A government pension that's enough to meet retirement requirements would be quite good for some people. Today 65,000 baht would be about $US1,850 per month. FWIW my US SS is about $US2,500 per month which is the most one can get if retired at age 66 which I did, just under the wire before they raised the age a bit.

SS is based on how much one paid in and can be almost nothing.

Some people of course have other pensions and investment income and savings but I'm wondering about German pension only.

Do all Germans get enough to match 65,000 baht pm? A lot of other people don't get nearly that much.

Average German state pension 1200E/month, maximum state pension 2500E/month

(Salary related) So 50Kbht-100Kbht a month.

[Naam]

A government pension that's enough to meet retirement requirements would be quite good for some people. Today 65,000 baht would be about $US1,850 per month. FWIW my US SS is about $US2,500 per month which is the most one can get if retired at age 66 which I did, just under the wire before they raised the age a bit.

SS is based on how much one paid in and can be almost nothing.

Some people of course have other pensions and investment income and savings but I'm wondering about German pension only.

Do all Germans get enough to match 65,000 baht pm? A lot of other people don't get nearly that much.

Average German state pension 1200E/month, maximum state pension 2500E/month

(Salary related) So 50Kbht-100Kbht a month.

in Germany one has to distinguish between social insurance (Rente), payments by company pension funds (Betriebsrente) and Pension (only for former government officials).

-the "Rente" is capped and based on former earnings as well as years of work and last salary.

-the "Betriebsrente" is not capped and based on contributions during working years.

-the "Pension" is not capped and based on the last rank as well as salary.

[Naam]

it would be an ideal time ot get the most out of your baht and the maximum of euros, if you would be able to send back your stranded money in thailand to your home country

but, sadly there are so many rules, specially one where you can bring in how much you want, but to bring it back out, that is another problem

there is no limit on what amount you are allowed to transfer to Thailand and it is not a problem to obtain cash foreign currency against Thai Baht and take forex out within the "export limit" of US-Dollars 20,000.-