Thai talk: New election timeline is anybody's guess

webfact · May 27, 2015

THAI TALK
New election timeline is anybody's guess

BANGKOK: -- Now that all parties concerned have agreed on holding a national referendum on the new constitution draft - a provision that isn't incorporated in the current interim charter - how is General Prayut Chan-o-Cha's "road map" towards the next election affected?

Quite a number of political analysts believe the road map has been revised in a major, unpredictable way.

One crucial point to bear in mind is that Premier Prayut has made it abundantly clear that while the Cabinet and the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), in their joint session on May 19, agreed "in principle" that a referendum should be held after the draft is completed, it's not a firm commitment.

The catchphrase, repeated often in the past few months by the premier and NCPO head, remains: "Everything will depend on the prevailing circumstances at the time."

In other words, the official version remains that the NCPO and Cabinet have decided to make the appropriate preparations for a referendum to be held - but whether or not a referendum will materialise won't be decided until such time as is deemed necessary. The premier seemed to have made it plain that he will cross that bridge when he comes to it.

In fact, many questions still need to be addressed before it becomes clear whether the next election can be held next year.

It's now an open-ended issue.

First, the interim constitution will have to be amended to fit in a referendum. The proposed changes will be submitted to the National Legislative Assembly, which has one month to debate and approve details of the move.

Once the amendments are passed, the charter draft will go to the National Reform Council, where a heated debate will undoubtedly ensue. According to the original road map, the NRC will have until around August to decide whether to pass the draft or not.

With the new scenario, this step has been delayed for at least a month.

If the draft is killed by the NRC - which would be tantamount to a suicidal move, since failing to pass the draft would mean its own demise - then it's back to Square One. A new Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC) will be formed and another NRC will be set up with the proviso that old members can't be re-appointed to the new bodies.

Under that scenario, the whole exercise will begin anew, and that means at least 18 months of delay before the next election.

But even if the NRC passes the draft, the process won't be smooth sailing all the way either. That's because if the draft is approved, a decision will have to be made on whether a referendum will actually have to be held.

Who will make that decision when that crucial time arrives? General Prayut has tried not to appear as if he is making that decision alone. He may ask the Cabinet and NCPO to jointly consider that issue yet again. Or, he may want to expand the base of the parties involved by asking the NRC and the NLA as well as the CDC to join in the process.

If, for any reason at all, a final decision is made not to hold a national public poll, the draft will be submitted for royal approval.

If, however, a decision is made to go ahead with the referendum, the timeline will come under revision, as the process will take at least three months, moving the date of the election to the middle of next year at the earliest - if the majority of those who show up to vote in the referendum say yes to the draft, that is.

If the draft is rejected in the poll, however, how the new scenario will play out becomes anybody's guess.

Deputy Premier Wissanu Krea-ngam has offered four scenarios that could follow a rejection of the charter draft:

1. Form a new National Reform Council and CDC and start the drafting process all over again. Back to Square One. (In this case, there is no telling when the next election could be held.)

2. Assign the National Legislative Assembly to set up a new charter drafting committee to draw up a new draft. (That will also take no less time than the first round.)

3. Set up a new CDC to start the process afresh without having to refer to the legislative body.

4. Dust off either the 1997 or the 2007 constitution and make the necessary amendments.

None of these scenarios promises a quick return to a general election. And roadblocks can emerge out of the blue to derail the process in the name of national security and national reconciliation or the lack of it.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/New-election-timeline-is-anybodys-guess-30261088.html

-- The Nation 2015-05-28

wowfactor10 · May 28, 2015

Sorry to say but i never seen a country like this with such a political system

My guess is that the country will be bankrupt before any election...

Srikcir · May 28, 2015

"If, for any reason at all, a final decision is made not to hold a national public poll, the draft will be submitted for royal approval."

The ONLY scenario that gives the NCPO everything it wants politically within the timeframe it wants. This process was followed with the military handcrafted 1997 Constitution and it lasted until the 2006 miitary coup.