A watershed, or status quo for Myanmar?

BY MICHAEL PEEL

The generals and their allies restated their power on June 25 by seeing off an effort to change the Constitution to open a possible path for opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to become President and seal Myanmar’s transition from almost half a century of military rule.

But the show of strength was as notable for its undercurrent of weakness, with about 60 per cent of the members of the country’s newly assertive Parliament voting for reform. The military was able to rely on the comfort blanket of a guaranteed 25 per cent of legislative seats. This gives the generals an effective veto, since constitutional Bills require a 75 per cent plus one majority.

The vote provided a taste of what are likely to be turbulent months after elections in late October or early November, when Parliament is due to choose the President.

The elections will mark a 25-year turn of the political wheel from 1990 polls held by the then-junta and won by a landslide by Ms Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). Shocked by the result, the generals simply ignored it and extended their repressive and insular rule, until a gradual process of change driven by necessity led to a formal handover of power to a quasi-civilian administration in 2011.