Will The Bht Tank

[englishoak]

In light of current events I expect the bht will drop some over the next couple of days. Question is how far and will it bounce back ?

I'm betting on 4-5 drop against most currencies during this week. Any thoughts out there?

[fxm88]

The coup was announced while the markets were still open in the States: the currency only dropped about 1%; Thai ADRs and funds a bit more. If volatility implies uncertainty then it would seem that there's not much uncertainty about the future of this coup. The Thais should be waking up within the next few hours -- we'll have to wait and see how they react to the news of a new government.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDTHB=X&a...&c=USDEUR=X

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

http://www.easybourse.com/Website/dynamic/...;NewsRubrique=2

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=T...mp;q=l&c=TF

Edited September 19, 2006 by fxm88

[Rinrada]

Midnight UK time ...alll normal

70.16984 Thai Baht

1 Thai Baht (THB) = 0.01425 British Pound (GBP)

Interbank rate +/- %

This means:

You buy 1 British Pound : 70.16984 Thai Baht

You sell 1 British Pound : 69.98110 Thai Baht

You buy 1 Thai Baht : 0.01425 British Pound

You sell 1 Thai Baht : 0.01429 British Pound

Median price = 69.98110 / 70.16984 (bid/ask)

Estimated price based on daily US dollar rates

[britmaveric]

Probable a drop will occur, but how far is the question? It all depends on what happens later today.

[Charma]

Midnight UK time ...alll normal

70.16984 Thai Baht

1 Thai Baht (THB) = 0.01425 British Pound (GBP)

Interbank rate +/- %

This means:

You buy 1 British Pound : 70.16984 Thai Baht

You sell 1 British Pound : 69.98110 Thai Baht

You buy 1 Thai Baht : 0.01425 British Pound

You sell 1 Thai Baht : 0.01429 British Pound

Median price = 69.98110 / 70.16984 (bid/ask)

Estimated price based on daily US dollar rates

20 minutes later and it is over 71.

This is today:

Rather volatile?

[britmaveric]

It's starting - a noticeable increase with the $ too. This could be disasterous for the bht if the situation isnt clear relatively soon.

[fxm88]

"Thailand's Stock Exchange Plans Normal Hours, Spokeswoman Says", Sept. 20 (Bloomberg)

The Stock Exchange of Thailand plans to operate normally today in the wake of a coup, said Ladawan Kantawong, a spokeswoman.

``We will open the market,'' she said in a telephone interview from Bangkok.

Stocks trade on the Thai exchange from 10 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. and from 2:30 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. local time each weekday. The benchmark SET has fallen 1.6 percent this year, trailing a 4.3 percent gain in Morgan Stanley Capital International's Asia Pacific Index.

...

[JimmyGreaves]

Predict no real change

[TRIPxCORE]

Of course it will drop. How far is anyone's guess. The longer the situation remains unstable and there is uncertainty in the air, the longer it will suffer.

[trt]

SET is closed.... will need to wait till it opens as this will have an impact as well...

[Jeff1]

I sure hope so . This morning the baht was just under 37 to the dollar ! I ( we ) have been living with 37 for almost a year.

If you worry about a few hundred dollars, no big deal but if your talking about thousands, it matters alot.

[Soju]

I sure hope so . This morning the baht was just under 37 to the dollar ! I ( we ) have been living with 37 for almost a year.

If you worry about a few hundred dollars, no big deal but if your talking about thousands, it matters alot.

Are you talking US Dollar or another currency? The THB is a little under 38 to the USD, it is not under 37. The time that it's been in the 37 range is no where near to being a year! It was well over 40 to the USD through the end of last year, then at the beginning of this year dipped below 40, but still has been above 38 for the majority of this year. It has only been since August that it's remained below 38.

As to 1 THB difference in exchange rate making a lot of difference on thousands of dollars, well that depends I guess on your own wealth. For 1,000 USD, exchanging it to THB at 37.0 vs 38.0 would yield you 37,000 vs. 38,000 THB or a difference of 1,000 THB or about 27 USD. Not something I'd call a big difference, especially for a tourist who will likely spend 50 or 100 times that on their vacation. Lot's of people get all excited over what they see as significant movement in currency but for most of them it's actually of very little consequence. If you're a big investor, or buying/selling a house or other big ticket items, then it certainly of more significance. Or if you're living in Thailand on a fixed foreign income and having trouble making ends meet, then I guess it could also potentially be a big deal.

Edited September 20, 2006 by Soju

[thohts]

The currency markets seem to want Thaksin out. The baht increased when he became "caretaker".

However, I think the slight drop (yes, slight.. the baht is not 'tanking', no pun intended) was caused by the martial law part of the equation. It was erratic yesterday, but nothing dramatic seems to be happening to the baht.

Once democratic government is re-instated, I think the baht will appreciate even higher. Perhaps to 36-36.5 baht to the US dollar over the next few months. (Too bad for my dollars)

I've slowly been moving baht out of the country over the past 3 months because of the unstable political situation here. I've still got over 3mm in the banks, and when I heard about the coup I was concerned about my dosh.

However, learning more about the situation and how the markets have been responding I'm much more confident in the baht. If it wipes out any gains made over the past 3 months, so be it. But I don't think it will become a Thai peso.

[fxm88]

The latest on Yahoo has 1 USD = 37.730 THB at 2:18 AM ET. (I haven't a clue what market it's coming from, at this time of morning, but it's not atypical.) The graph still shows some volatility. Maybe it's just spurious data.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=USDTHB%3DX

[GuestHouse]

My wife and I have been keeping a close eye on the Bht with the intention of moving Bht2.5M to Thailand to fund our house build, while we've been in no great rush, I shall be going to the bank this morning to get funds ready for the transfer if the Bht takes a dive.

The savings could be sufficient to pay for the beer I'll no doubt need to drink to calm my nerves once the build starts.

[OldAsiaHand]

Yeah, I would also have bet on a bigger knee-jerk fall from the Singapore traders when they opened this morning, but it's after lunch on Wednesday now and the THB is still stable at about 1% down from yesterday. Who would have thought?

As a prior poster said, currency markets reflect uncertainty so this has to suggest that the markets aren't all that uncertain about the situation. They must know something I don't. I'm sitting right at the middle of it and it all look uncertain as hel_l to me. If somebody's willing to buy my THB at a 1% discount from yesterday under circumstances like these, I'm a happy seller.

[marshbags]

Amazing Thailand.

As a marker just look at what happened last wek to the U.K. pound.

It dipped to 1.85 from 1.95 just because T.Blair and G.Brown,s relationship was yet again took to task.

Regarding the Baht

When you look at all that has happened in Thailand on this footing it should have / and now probably will get somewhat weaker.

It has been kept artificially high due to the oil situation as one factor.

" Dip your bread " while you can when your satisfied with an xxx exchange rate you had your mind set on.

You can only cash it once.

marshbags

[Losangels]

The announcement of bank closure today should hurt the Baht. The longer banks are ordered closed the weaker the Baht will be. Of course it all depends whether there is a truly bloodless coup, Taksin may still have some influence with the military here and could easily turn ugly. Thats when Baht will go downhill, how far no one knows. If there's a huge outflow of fund out of the country, you'll bet they'll be restriction on money transfers at the bank

[thaihome]

My wife and I have been keeping a close eye on the Bht with the intention of moving Bht2.5M to Thailand to fund our house build, while we've been in no great rush, I shall be going to the bank this morning to get funds ready for the transfer if the Bht takes a dive.

The savings could be sufficient to pay for the beer I'll no doubt need to drink to calm my nerves once the build starts.

Tomorrow might be a better day,since Thai banks are closed today. I am really pissed has I transfered USD 10K yesterday at 37.2

TH

[fxm88]

Yeah, I would also have bet on a bigger knee-jerk fall from the Singapore traders when they opened this morning, but it's after lunch on Wednesday now and the THB is still stable at about 1% down from yesterday. Who would have thought?

Is it possible whoever is in charge of the central bank could be keeping the currency stable by buying it on the market? The World Factbook estimates Thailand's reserves of foreign exchange and gold at $52.07 billion. Back in 1997, how long did Thailand manage to defend the baht against "massive speculative attacks" before finally devaluing? 2 months? How much did that cost them?

Does anyone here have access to real forex market data? Yahoo just isn't cutting it.

Edited September 20, 2006 by fxm88

[boppia]

My vote is for not much change unless in the following months the new government finds problems in the previous gov'ts accounting etc.

Is the world really doing well right now? Seems like things are slowing everywhere.

[thaigene2]

It's 37.68 currently (around 4pm Bangkok)

Here is a fast link to a good forex calcuator: http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi

[Thaibel]

At 4pm:

-Euro= 47,9870 THB

-USD= 37,8555 THB

-GBP= 71,2673 THB

[mouse]

If there's a huge outflow of fund out of the country, you'll bet they'll be restriction on money transfers at the bank

But we all have PayPal now therefore any policies such as that suggested would be totally inconsequential to many.

[sleepyjohn]

Yes the baht's drop does seem to have been muted. An optimist might say the markets were aleady discounted for uncertainty and after the softish fall the baht may rise on relief of that. History however tells us anything can happen and the baht is something less than desirable right now. In the eyes of the big boy funds Thailand for the foreseeable future will be a country where coups can happen at the drop of a hat. Imagine being a fund manager. Would you like to be called in front of your boss to explain why you didn't get your funds out of Thailand. or invested more there, just before something else bad happened? No they have to play it safe. Not to mention that a big business, Tesco's already agreed expansion plans get dumped on. Not good not good. This will all take years to forget. When funds get out of the SET the baht falls.

SET by the way says they will open tomorrow.....maybe they're right.

[Jeff1]

I sure hope so . This morning the baht was just under 37 to the dollar ! I ( we ) have been living with 37 for almost a year.

If you worry about a few hundred dollars, no big deal but if your talking about thousands, it matters alot.

Are you talking US Dollar or another currency? The THB is a little under 38 to the USD, it is not under 37. The time that it's been in the 37 range is no where near to being a year! It was well over 40 to the USD through the end of last year, then at the beginning of this year dipped below 40, but still has been above 38 for the majority of this year. It has only been since August that it's remained below 38.

As to 1 THB difference in exchange rate making a lot of difference on thousands of dollars, well that depends I guess on your own wealth. For 1,000 USD, exchanging it to THB at 37.0 vs 38.0 would yield you 37,000 vs. 38,000 THB or a difference of 1,000 THB or about 27 USD. Not something I'd call a big difference, especially for a tourist who will likely spend 50 or 100 times that on their vacation. Lot's of people get all excited over what they see as significant movement in currency but for most of them it's actually of very little consequence. If you're a big investor, or buying/selling a house or other big ticket items, then it certainly of more significance. Or if you're living in Thailand on a fixed foreign income and having trouble making ends meet, then I guess it could also potentially be a big deal.

I have been following the baht and it is easy to say it has been plus / minus 38 . As you say not a big deal. Don't tell me this is an improvement over years before . Im not a tourist or talking about them . I am talking about THOUSANDS, tens of thousands year in my case.

I make ends meet quite well, thank you . Any extra IMO is a good thing but then I guess im talking to a multimillionare.

Edited September 20, 2006 by Jeff1

[Loom]

Baht surprisingly stable. About the same as it was this morning. Bloomberg is updating quotes but I'm not sure of their source if the Thai banking system is on vacation. Quotes here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencie...currencies.html

What encourages me to be more optimistic is that the government has been on and off and on again since parliament dissolved. If the coup leaders can keep things stable, that's better than what Thailand has had for most of this year. Yet the baht has kept relatively strong all year despite the stop go, stop go government.

The market would probably respond well to a renewed comittment to "clean" democracy, the the extent that's possible. Delay of next election to a year from now probably the biggest negative so far.

[thohts]

Baht is relatively stable because this has already been factored in.

Thai people have been speculating about a coup for a while now.

Banks will be open tomorrow.

My money is secure, for now. However, I may move some out next week just to be sure.

This isn't over yet.

[britmaveric]

Wait till the market/banks open up tomorrow - this will be true test

[sleepyjohn]

I'm interested about how the baht trades on secondary markets. One might expect these markets to be low volume and therefore support or negative sentiment could have a disproportionate effect.....as long as the buyers/sellers ain't nervous about their positions when the main market opens.