teej Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Yeah, I would also have bet on a bigger knee-jerk fall from the Singapore traders when they opened this morning, but it's after lunch on Wednesday now and the THB is still stable at about 1% down from yesterday. Who would have thought?As a prior poster said, currency markets reflect uncertainty so this has to suggest that the markets aren't all that uncertain about the situation. They must know something I don't. I'm sitting right at the middle of it and it all look uncertain as hel_l to me. If somebody's willing to buy my THB at a 1% discount from yesterday under circumstances like these, I'm a happy seller. My hands are up, and palms facing in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 They'll ramp it to get the shorts out, then tank it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ding Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Biz pundits are saying the economics are about as stable as before. That this is a political situation and not economic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimsKnight Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Biz pundits are saying the economics are about as stable as before. That this is a political situation and not economic. Lets hope for expats (with funds internally) Thai baht to £ or $ that it does stay stable. But many on the outside looking in (with money coming in from the west) will secretly be wanting the baht to go shooting into the stratosphere of the 80s or even 90s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 90bht per quid would be fabulous!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizz Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 90bht per quid would be fabulous!!! Ding is i think on the ball. quote Biz pundits are saying the economics are about as stable as before. That this is a political situation and not economic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cclub75 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 BOT has learned fast from her sisters FED and BOJ.. Market manipulation. Oops sorry, the right word is "intervention". The central bank must be buying THB. And probably some SET shares (heavy volume today, you'll see that we are going to finish the day in the green !) That's the motto now : no cycle anymore. Just higher, higher, higher. Terrorist attack ? Higher ("let's show them that we are not impressed") Coup ? Higher. etc. It's becoming utterly ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMguy Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 BOT has learned fast from her sisters FED and BOJ.. Market manipulation. Oops sorry, the right word is "intervention".The central bank must be buying THB. And probably some SET shares (heavy volume today, you'll see that we are going to finish the day in the green !) That's the motto now : no cycle anymore. Just higher, higher, higher. Terrorist attack ? Higher ("let's show them that we are not impressed") Coup ? Higher. etc. It's becoming utterly ridiculous. I also suspect central bank "intervention" to keep the market/currency stable but the question is how deep into their pockets are they willing to go ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxm88 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Neither The Thai Fund (TTF) nor Thai Capital Fund (TF) appear to have traded yesterday (20-Sep). These are Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) so I wouldn't have expected the SET not being open to have directly affected them. Does anyone know if trading in these two funds was suspended? Or is it just a case of Yahoo missing some data? TF - THAI CAPITAL FUND (AMEX) Last Trade: 9.70 Trade Time: Sep 19 TTF - THAI FUND THE (NYSE) Last Trade: 8.65 Trade Time: Sep 19 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TF,TTF&t=5d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestro Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 fxm, do you know of a stock traded on a US exchange that reflects the SET index? --------------- Maestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestro Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 (edited) Neither The Thai Fund (TTF) nor Thai Capital Fund (TF) appear to have traded yesterday (20-Sep).I see how for both funds the price peaked briefly in April 2006, probably due to the elections. With new elections now predicted again for next month, the same may happen again.Regarding the exchange rate, on 16 April I predicted that within a year the Baht would loose at least 25% against the British Pound, but with the Thaksin government now out of the picture I don’t think anymore that this crash will happen. --------------- Maestro Edited September 21, 2006 by maestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backflip Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 "That this is a political situation and not economic." With the clear exception of you, I have never known anyone to believe that that a "political situation" and "economics" to be mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 "That this is a political situation and not economic."With the clear exception of you, I have never known anyone to believe that that a "political situation" and "economics" to be mutually exclusive. Agreed look at Iran and oil prices as a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dan Sai Kid Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 My wife and I have been keeping a close eye on the Bht with the intention of moving Bht2.5M to Thailand to fund our house build, while we've been in no great rush, I shall be going to the bank this morning to get funds ready for the transfer if the Bht takes a dive.The savings could be sufficient to pay for the beer I'll no doubt need to drink to calm my nerves once the build starts. When we built our house we got a book of numbers from the bank (RBS) and when we wanted to transfer money we could do it over the phone - you had to pay for each transfer - but it was security against anything happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taxexile Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 (edited) this is the pound sterling against the baht today up until 6pm , can anyone explain what sort of buying and selling would cause this pattern of fluctuations. Edited September 21, 2006 by taxexile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 (edited) tax - from what I see this whole crisis has no effect, Bht seems to be bloody immune to anything. Edited September 21, 2006 by britmaveric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taxexile Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 (edited) i only watch the pound , and as you say , the baht has hardly changed , but today's patterns are very strange and i was just wondering why they occurred , could the thai central bank be intervening to keep the baht stable ? Edited September 21, 2006 by taxexile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thohts Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 "It has been a rumour for the last three or four months that a coup was imminent, and I think the reason behind it... has been Thaksin's reluctance to stand down from power," said Hugh Young from Aberdeen Asset Management in Bangkok. see http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/business/5362354.stm as I mention, the coup has already been factored into the current value of the baht. (Yes, it has risen against major currencies the past few months, though perhaps not as much as it could have because of this information) However, I think in 2 weeks it will start to drop dramatically. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
englishoak Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 "Bht seems to be bloody immune to anything" I could not have put it better myself. Glad I did'nt bet on my original expectation Certainly looks the case ATM. Suspect there is some central bank involvement and doubt anything will change tomorrow. I expect the next likely crunch point will be down to how quick a "caretaker" is appointed and that the military do in fact step down as promised. Then again anything may or may not happen TIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loom Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 So far so good. There are those who still think the baht has peaked. But they're taking a stand against the longer-term trend. I'm more concerned about the global macro environment which will probably get worse before it gets better. It's possible that in the past this might have encouraged countries with more expensive labor costs to invest in Thailand and help support the currency. At the same time, the weak baht post financial crisis was also a big help in boosting export earnings and stimulating growth. That in turn eventually encouraged more investment and generated trade surplus helping drive baht to where it is now. At least with the central bank still (?) targeting inflation, the severe imbalances that led to the financial crisis shouldn't be building. May be why baht has performed as well as it has in past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simcity Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Today in bangkok post ( 23 sept ) CHATUMONG TIPPED AS PM ON MAY 30 2001, mr CHATUMONGOL was sacked by the Thaskin goverment . that follow a dispute with Mr Thaskin over interest rate policies. Mr chatumongol had argued that low rates were needed for economic growth at the time, while Mr Thaskin had pushed for a rate hike to help strengthen the baht ! what will be his stand now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizz Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Talk seems to be going back and forth Some Fund managers are on holidays. Give it a month bloodless coup or not it just doesn’t sit well, to many crazy things happening in Thailand now the old saying takes precedence here don’t invest money here unless you are prepared to lose it. For one I would think it crazy to invest in the set or bring large amounts of foreign exchange into Thailand at the present time. This is only my two cents worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.png.3b3332cc2256ad0edbc2fe9404feeef0.png)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now