Where is the SET going in the next 6 months?

[Beanster]

Will be leaving Thailand in the next 6-9 months and have some money in the market / mutual funds etc. Just wondering what people's opinions are on where it's going.

If I return to Europe and the market isn't favourable, I should probably leave the investments until a more opportune time?

How hard is it to repatriate money if you aren't in the country?

Thanks in advance everyone.

Beanster

[Asiantravel]

McWalen of McWalen School of Investment thinks it could go to 1800

[fang37]

The SET is only part of the decision. EUR:THB also has an effect.

[JacChang]

The SET is expected to remain in the same spot as the high point and will decrease about 10-15% as the low point in 6 months time. Stay away from banking stocks for now, with the current information, all banks are headed downwards of atleast 5% for this year. Most companies Q2 results aren't that satisfying, but REIT stocks are doing well with 6-8% dividends and slowly creeping up in price. With interest rates going down to barely 2%, and stock principal possible loss of 5-10%, property funds are the way to go for now. Some may argue to keep as cash, but I dislike inflation more than anything, so I recommend sitting on property funds with 6-8% dividends.

[thaimlord]

The common sense school of investing will tell you that if you can't figure if the SET will be up or down tomorrow, let alone by how much, that you have no possibility whatsoever of telling what it will be doing in 180 tomorrows.

Don't listen to anyone's opinion on the sharemarket. If results were able to be known, then everyone would be acting accordingly in the markets. And of course that wouldn't work either because then there'd be no-one on the other side of the trades and you couldn't complete them. For every block of shares that someone wants to be long on, someone else has to want to sell.

Not saying don't invest, but use your own guidance and commonsense.

Good luck, I hope it goes well for you.

TL

[fang37]

For any market to exist, there MUST be a difference in opinion - me thinks.

[AyG]

The OP didn't state that the funds were invested in Thailand, so the THB exchange rate may be irrelevant.

The OP didn't state the amount of money involved and whether it is all or part of his investment portfolio. If the Thailand portion is small (a few percent), it may be a reasonable part of a balanced portfolio.

The amount of money also affects how difficult it would be to take out of the country.

And what was the source of the money invested? Brought into Thailand or earned here? That will affect how easy it is to remit to Europe.

[SantiSuk]

I would not touch the SET with a barge-pole for new money at the moment. Sell now would be my advice if you are not a long term holder. It will come back one day, but there are too many bad things happening around Asia-Pac presently. China is in the grips of a dead Panda bounce before the artificial inflation of infrastructure spending finally comes home to roost. Korea in recession, Japan demonstrating yet again that its executives do not have the mores to run a safe market and Thailand F***ed by a military regime that has no more idea how to run an economy than I have when it comes to designing a nuclear power station - and a regime that is being increasingly disliked around the world and targeted as such by the biggest economy on earth.

If I was in your shoes I would go to cash in UK deposits, staying within the GBP75k insured limits for any one bank, and then look again at investing in the UK come late October in time to catch the traditional best months of the UK market.

[GBP is up to touching 54 a baht his morning. It's on a roll - don't bet against the UK economy vs the Thai economy for the time being! How many times could I say that in the last two decades. The long run story for Asia still holds good, but how many of us have been burnt by the short story over the years]

40 year substantive private investor in equities

[jgold]

McWalen of McWalen School of Investment thinks it could go to 1800

Oh boy!!

only a true dumbass would follow his advice. I rather listen to my ex-gf sick buffalo stories.

The SET is most likely heading lower unless the economy turns around.

[SantiSuk]

Postscript. Although I personally would go 100% to cash, it would be an equally good strategy to put 50% to cash (for the short term) and 50% to work - 25% in the UK (as in UK mutuals), 12.5% in Europe (thru' UK mutuals) and 12.5% in the US (through UK mutuals). My preference for UK mutuals is investment trust shares.

No-one should be light on the US - unlikely to bomb, and if it does take off (which would be my guess for 2016) ... well no-one ever got rich by underestimating the power of that economy to motor when in come-back mode.

[Estrada]

I have been investing in the SET for 20 years and know the market. I am not interested in the SET index, however it will go up in the second half and fall in the 1st half of next year then rise again in the second half. That is the investment pattern. So if you have money leave it in for the 6 months you indicated then sell at the high. However if you want to make money invest in shares with a good volume turnover, a 5 to 8%+ dividend and an upside of 20-50%+ such as BTS (infrastructure), Advance, Intuch, THCOM (Communications affected by new 4G awards and Digital Technology).

[fred Kubasa]

Look at your toes to get market direction !

[Ghostnigel]

For any market to exist, there MUST be a difference in opinion - me thinks.

I beg to differ....there, you were right.

[Estrada]

Look at your toes to get market direction !

My toes are pointing up!

[Time Traveller]

IF you need the money, then sell out. The best strategy is to sell out in equal portions over the next 6 to 9 months to get an average over that period of time. This will avoid selling out at the worst possible time.

If you don't need the money, then what you are asking is really about timing the market. Not even the best investors can forecast that with any accuracy. So just toss a coin and hope.

With regards to repatriating the money if you are not in the country, then you need to instruct your fund or broker to wire that to your foreign bank account. This requires you to have the same name on the foreign account as listed on your Thai investment account.