Economic ministers 'complete failures'

[dageurreotype]

I don't know where in Thailand you live but I can assure you the people of Phuket are suffering a massive downturn in tourists which cannot be solely attributed to the Low Season. Many closing up and going back to their home provinces. The knock on effect of this is hotel staff including maintenance and ancillary workers are without work of any kind. My mae baan has just asked me if I am able to find more work for her. Her usual work is as a painter/decorator for local hoteliers. I'm unable to help. Any work available is being spread very thinly. Some will say Phuket deserves this as a wake up call for their greed. I have much sympathy with this view. However, doesn't help the many good people I know having been able to earn a living here now finding themselves destitute.

I live in a Thailand Dageurootype, in a place called

The Real World -

where the FACTS count more than the opinion of some bloke on social media who claims he saw some other bloke moving out and whining about his failed business and blaming it on the government and tourists.

The FACTS are tourism has risen in 2015, maybe not enough to counteract the losses accumulated over time especially after last years even worse year of tourism which occurred when Yingluck was PM and Suthep were making protests.

I said tourism had risen.

I never said it had skyrocketed.

Social media? No, I actually interact with my Thai neighbours of many years. I also speak Thai, you? 'Course not. You're simply sitting on your bar stool/condo or quite possibly from your home country pronouncing upon that which you've just been fed by online 'news'. Where they don't print the er, 'facts'. I posted earlier I'd found your posts entertaining, I now find them irritating. Welcome to my List of The Ignored

[rubl]

Military governance and strong fair economic policies do not mix

Criminal fugitive controlled governance and strong 'fair' economical policies do not mix either.

Now back to today with the World Economy still causing problems for those depending a lot on export.

[Fat Haggis]

An interesting point of view, considering the country's economy was in worse shape as a result of political turmoil directly related to the political unrest caused by the PAD. (not that it didn't need to be said).

Let's not forget the mess the economy was in with Yingsy refusing to pay farmers and confirm disbursement of government funds for much anticipated infrastructure projects. Which would have given finances and a confidence boost to domestic industries.

The tourism industry took a massive hit because of the Suthep/Yingsy spat. And the country was crawling along, mainly on the back of exports.

Exports, reliant on China and Europe are down now (not as a result of the current economic policies but because the world in general teeters on the brink of a very large depression).

Since the current government came to power, there has been a rebound in tourism, but they can't do a lot to affect the export sector as that relies on trade partner economies being in good shape. The Baht has been high and that discourages manufacturing in the country. The baht has now fallen in value. The domestic economy is mired by household debt.

But career diplomat Kasit (not an economist) has the answer which is...

"Since the current government came to power there has been a rebound in tourism"

Are you kidding??? Speak to any Thai involved in the tourism industry and there has been an enormous fall in Tourism. Get your facts right don't rely on government properganda misleading all, or so they think.

The old "talk to any Thai" excuse. I love that belief structure that some cling too because facts obscure their agenda. It is like some think global economists should go and talk to a local to gauge economic indicators in the country.

Facts. The PTP's greatest friend. Beliefs, their dearest friend.

Can you present facts to state what you "believe"? I can guarantee you can't because to argue it is to argue that terrorism has a positive effect on tourism. The facts in the below graph prove otherwise and shows you are wrong.

Interestingly it is a Democrat that has criticised the Junta as well. The Junta's biggest fear is solidarity between old waring parties like the Dems and the one principle supporters.

I don't know where in Thailand you live but I can assure you the people of Phuket are suffering a massive downturn in tourists which cannot be solely attributed to the Low Season. Many closing up and going back to their home provinces. The knock on effect of this is hotel staff including maintenance and ancillary workers are without work of any kind. My mae baan has just asked me if I am able to find more work for her. Her usual work is as a painter/decorator for local hoteliers. I'm unable to help. Any work available is being spread very thinly. Some will say Phuket deserves this as a wake up call for their greed. I have much sympathy with this view. However, doesn't help the many good people I know having been able to earn a living here now finding themselves destitute.

I live in a Thailand Dageurootype, in a place called

The Real World -

where the FACTS count more than the opinion of some bloke on social media who claims he saw some other bloke moving out and whining about his failed business and blaming it on the government and tourists.

The FACTS are tourism has risen in 2015, maybe not enough to counteract the losses accumulated over time especially after last years even worse year of tourism which occurred when Yingluck was PM and Suthep were making protests.

I said tourism had risen.

I never said it had skyrocketed.

It can rise by a billion it matters not a jot unless they're spending increases!!!

[Fat Haggis]

Military governance and strong fair economic policies do not mix

Criminal fugitive controlled governance and strong 'fair' economical policies do not mix either.

Now back to today with the World Economy still causing problems for those depending a lot on export.

Whisky and coke are a terrible mix too, but it actually works!!

The Junta should have brought in SMEs with proven track records right from rhe get go, but they've been stumbling from one crises to another, sure they inherited a mess, but this bunch of bozos want to stay on for a few more years, so it's very much their problem!!!

[harada]

I guess it's a bit like getting a dentist to work on your car, sooner or later your car will come to a grinding halt.

[Charlie Croker]

I don't know where in Thailand you live but I can assure you the people of Phuket are suffering a massive downturn in tourists which cannot be solely attributed to the Low Season. Many closing up and going back to their home provinces. The knock on effect of this is hotel staff including maintenance and ancillary workers are without work of any kind. My mae baan has just asked me if I am able to find more work for her. Her usual work is as a painter/decorator for local hoteliers. I'm unable to help. Any work available is being spread very thinly. Some will say Phuket deserves this as a wake up call for their greed. I have much sympathy with this view. However, doesn't help the many good people I know having been able to earn a living here now finding themselves destitute.

I live in a Thailand Dageurootype, in a place called

The Real World -

where the FACTS count more than the opinion of some bloke on social media who claims he saw some other bloke moving out and whining about his failed business and blaming it on the government and tourists.

The FACTS are tourism has risen in 2015, maybe not enough to counteract the losses accumulated over time especially after last years even worse year of tourism which occurred when Yingluck was PM and Suthep were making protests.

I said tourism had risen.

I never said it had skyrocketed.

Social media? No, I actually interact with my Thai neighbours of many years. I also speak Thai, you? 'Course not. You're simply sitting on your bar stool/condo or quite possibly from your home country pronouncing upon that which you've just been fed by online 'news'. Where they don't print the er, 'facts'. I posted earlier I'd found your posts entertaining, I now find them irritating. Welcome to my List of The Ignored

So you couldn't refute my FACTS with other FACTS

You tried the jab and move technique, that didn't work, now you have turned to blatant wrong stereotypical insults and Coventry.

Thanks for putting me on 'the ignored' list

You might like to open that up to everyone though, I expect a few more might volunteer to join me.

I am most grateful, I only wish it came sooner.

You realize, As I'm in Coventry you have no right of reply?

Edited August 2, 2015 by Charlie Croker

[rubl]

Military governance and strong fair economic policies do not mix

Criminal fugitive controlled governance and strong 'fair' economical policies do not mix either.

Now back to today with the World Economy still causing problems for those depending a lot on export.

Whisky and coke are a terrible mix too, but it actually works!!

The Junta should have brought in SMEs with proven track records right from rhe get go, but they've been stumbling from one crises to another, sure they inherited a mess, but this bunch of bozos want to stay on for a few more years, so it's very much their problem!!!

The Junta should have brought in SME's with proven track records? Would that be a list they would need to ask from the former Minister of Economy or the Minister of Commerce who seemed mainly concerned with throwing away hundreds of billions of Baht in a (self-financing) RPPS ?

Mind you, I agree that it is a problem the government of the day needs to tackle.

[Charlie Croker]

I guess it's a bit like getting a dentist to work on your car, sooner or later your car will come to a grinding halt.

Do you mean nominating a socialite who used to be employed at AIS, with 40 days experience of politics to run the country?

I see your point - That is stupendously naïve.

You're be better off with the head of a national organisation, more used to giving orders and making difficult decisions, managing large budgets and planning to deal with crisis (plural).

I don't someone like... lets see now.. Oh yes, I know, lets say the head of the armed forces for example.

[Fat Haggis]

Military governance and strong fair economic policies do not mix

Criminal fugitive controlled governance and strong 'fair' economical policies do not mix either.

Now back to today with the World Economy still causing problems for those depending a lot on export.

Whisky and coke are a terrible mix too, but it actually works!!

The Junta should have brought in SMEs with proven track records right from rhe get go, but they've been stumbling from one crises to another, sure they inherited a mess, but this bunch of bozos want to stay on for a few more years, so it's very much their problem!!!

The Junta should have brought in SME's with proven track records? Would that be a list they would need to ask from the former Minister of Economy or the Minister of Commerce who seemed mainly concerned with throwing away hundreds of billions of Baht in a (self-financing) RPPS ?

Mind you, I agree that it is a problem the government of the day needs to tackle.

Are you trying to say there's no economists in Thaialnd that don't have or were not part of any political party mate?

[Thai at Heart]

Military governance and strong fair economic policies do not mix

Criminal fugitive controlled governance and strong 'fair' economical policies do not mix either.

Now back to today with the World Economy still causing problems for those depending a lot on export.

Whisky and coke are a terrible mix too, but it actually works!!

The Junta should have brought in SMEs with proven track records right from rhe get go, but they've been stumbling from one crises to another, sure they inherited a mess, but this bunch of bozos want to stay on for a few more years, so it's very much their problem!!!

The Junta should have brought in SME's with proven track records? Would that be a list they would need to ask from the former Minister of Economy or the Minister of Commerce who seemed mainly concerned with throwing away hundreds of billions of Baht in a (self-financing) RPPS ?

Mind you, I agree that it is a problem the government of the day needs to tackle.

Are you trying to say there's no economists in Thaialnd that don't have or were not part of any political party mate?

Problem is they have to find ones that are further right wing than those on fox news if they want to be approved of by the Pad.

[Fat Haggis]

I guess it's a bit like getting a dentist to work on your car, sooner or later your car will come to a grinding halt.

Do you mean nominating a socialite who used to be employed at AIS, with 40 days experience of politics to run the country?

I see your point - That is stupendously naïve.

You're be better off with the head of a national organisation, more used to giving orders and making difficult decisions, managing large budgets and planning to deal with crisis (plural).

I don't someone like... lets see now.. Oh yes, I know, lets say the head of the armed forces for example.

So why is Prayuth in the big seat then?

[rubl]

I guess it's a bit like getting a dentist to work on your car, sooner or later your car will come to a grinding halt.

Do you mean nominating a socialite who used to be employed at AIS, with 40 days experience of politics to run the country?

I see your point - That is stupendously naïve.

You're be better off with the head of a national organisation, more used to giving orders and making difficult decisions, managing large budgets and planning to deal with crisis (plural).

I don't someone like... lets see now.. Oh yes, I know, lets say the head of the armed forces for example.

So why is Prayuth in the big seat then?

I thought you knew that. He was put forward and chosen by the NLA.

Mind you, the topic is economy and failures and not PM's with limited understanding of the Economy as we see in many countries.

[spidermike007]

Would you ask a shoe salesman to repair your car? Would you ask your gardener to perform surgery on you? Would you ask your mechanic to build your house? Would you invite a guy who owned a car dealership to run a large bank? That is essentially what every Thai government does. There has not been any sign of a meritocracy for decades, if ever here. Cronies, friends with money and supporters. Not qualified people. Little wonder the current state of affairs.

[docshock13]

Chinese tourists #1 in visitors, #9 in daily spend per capita.

Well, when one has a low quality product they must rely on volume.

[Charlie Croker]

Would you ask a shoe salesman to repair your car? Would you ask your gardener to perform surgery on you? Would you ask your mechanic to build your house? Would you invite a guy who owned a car dealership to run a large bank? That is essentially what every Thai government does. There has not been any sign of a meritocracy for decades, if ever here. Cronies, friends with money and supporters. Not qualified people. Little wonder the current state of affairs.

I am sorry where is the school of professional political development?

It doesn't exist.

Unless you count Eton of course- In which case it does.

But for the rest of the world, its just lawyers, business people and legislators coming together and relying on the help they get from the civil service.

[phoenixdoglover]

I think the current leadership has a blind spot for economic issues, and of course the emphasis of the Junta has been on "pacifying" the opposition, asserting broad control, and making a show of addressing corruption . In addition, they've been largely reacting to issues related to airline safety, the migrant crisis, and slavery in the fishing industry. All of this keeps them away from addressing the growing problems of the Thai economy.

Here's what I consider to be the major items over the past 18 months with respect to probable economic impact:

1. The amnesty bill - the catalyst (or excuse) for protests - probably not an economic factor

2. Mass demonstrations and reactionary violence - disruption of the local (Bangkok) economy and a reduction in tourism revenues

3. Delayed payments to rice farmers - lack of economic stimulus, reduction in farm activity

4. The coup - introduced uncertainty both internally and externally - a general negative effect

5. Stoppage of demonstrations - restoration of normal business in Bangkok and better conditions for tourism

6. Payments and financial aid to rice farmers - stimulus for farming regions

7. Various highly publicized corruption cases (DSI chief, etc) - probably no effect on economy

8. Ongoing issues with airline safety oversight - clearly an economic issue for local airlines

9. Price controls for lottery tickets - probably not a big economic item, but approach showed lack of understanding of middle markets

10. Forest encroachment - reduction in economic activity on the disputed lands

11. G2G Rail Deals - so far, lack of transparency makes it hard to judge if net economic benefits will accrue to Thailand

12. Delayed government projects - clearly a major item highlighted by international economists, and a lack of short term stimulus

13. Human trafficking - major threat to Thai fishing industry, reduced economic activity

14. Oil price reduction - should be a benefit for Thailand

15. Faltering global economy - a negative factor for Thailand and many other countries

16. Liquor sales restrictions (rescinded) - would have created significant economic disruption, if enforced

17. Submarine purchase (on hold) - probably no economic impact, but gives strong impression of lack of spending priorities

18. Loss of manufacturing businesses - negative impact

19. Drought - negative impact

I probably missed some items; it's been an eventful time for Thailand.

Overall, I get the impression the current government is:

- weak in focus and understanding

- reactionary, not anticipating problems in the economy

- slow; not using the tools they have (such as project spending)

- mute; not articulating an economic strategy for Thailand (if manufacturing goes, kiss this baby goodbye)

Is this surprising? Let's ask the Generals.

Phoenixdogginglover is wrong to lay this at the door of the current government.

1. The current government took over 15mths ago, not 18mths ago.

2. Within the first 3 days of taking power they paid the rice farmers outstanding monies owed.

3. I don't need to read anymore the suggestions are dodgy at best. The numbers are rubbery, the hyperbole obvious.

You have reading comprehension problems, or an innate desire for senseless argument.

The 18 months, of course, predates the coup, as my items 1, 2, and 3 predate the coup.

Item 6 credits the rice payments as an economic stimulus. Did you miss that?

Of course the current economic conditions get laid at the door of the government. The measure of a government is not who is to blame, as much is inherited. Rather, the question is, how is the response?

[tomacht8]

I think the current leadership has a blind spot for economic issues, and of course the emphasis of the Junta has been on "pacifying" the opposition, asserting broad control, and making a show of addressing corruption . In addition, they've been largely reacting to issues related to airline safety, the migrant crisis, and slavery in the fishing industry. All of this keeps them away from addressing the growing problems of the Thai economy.

Here's what I consider to be the major items over the past 18 months with respect to probable economic impact:

1. The amnesty bill - the catalyst (or excuse) for protests - probably not an economic factor

2. Mass demonstrations and reactionary violence - disruption of the local (Bangkok) economy and a reduction in tourism revenues

3. Delayed payments to rice farmers - lack of economic stimulus, reduction in farm activity

4. The coup - introduced uncertainty both internally and externally - a general negative effect

5. Stoppage of demonstrations - restoration of normal business in Bangkok and better conditions for tourism

6. Payments and financial aid to rice farmers - stimulus for farming regions

7. Various highly publicized corruption cases (DSI chief, etc) - probably no effect on economy

8. Ongoing issues with airline safety oversight - clearly an economic issue for local airlines

9. Price controls for lottery tickets - probably not a big economic item, but approach showed lack of understanding of middle markets

10. Forest encroachment - reduction in economic activity on the disputed lands

11. G2G Rail Deals - so far, lack of transparency makes it hard to judge if net economic benefits will accrue to Thailand

12. Delayed government projects - clearly a major item highlighted by international economists, and a lack of short term stimulus

13. Human trafficking - major threat to Thai fishing industry, reduced economic activity

14. Oil price reduction - should be a benefit for Thailand

15. Faltering global economy - a negative factor for Thailand and many other countries

16. Liquor sales restrictions (rescinded) - would have created significant economic disruption, if enforced

17. Submarine purchase (on hold) - probably no economic impact, but gives strong impression of lack of spending priorities

18. Loss of manufacturing businesses - negative impact

19. Drought - negative impact

I probably missed some items; it's been an eventful time for Thailand.

Overall, I get the impression the current government is:

- weak in focus and understanding

- reactionary, not anticipating problems in the economy

- slow; not using the tools they have (such as project spending)

- mute; not articulating an economic strategy for Thailand (if manufacturing goes, kiss this baby goodbye)

Is this surprising? Let's ask the Generals.

Phoenixdogginglover is wrong to lay this at the door of the current government.

1. The current government took over 15mths ago, not 18mths ago.

2. Within the first 3 days of taking power they paid the rice farmers outstanding monies owed.

3. I don't need to read anymore the suggestions are dodgy at best. The numbers are rubbery, the hyperbole obvious.

You have reading comprehension problems, or an innate desire for senseless argument.

The 18 months, of course, predates the coup, as my items 1, 2, and 3 predate the coup.

Item 6 credits the rice payments as an economic stimulus. Did you miss that?

Of course the current economic conditions get laid at the door of the government. The measure of a government is not who is to blame, as much is inherited. Rather, the question is, how is the response?

Very good flashlight list.

One could add a lot of points.

What the process of change is lacking is a fundamental basis:

Equal rights for all.

As long as some HiSo´s, Police generals and etc. people get here special rights,

get impunity, nothing will change and the economy will suffer more in the future.

Only if the government realize to get rid of these leading corrupt officials then there will be progress, also in the economic field.

[15Peter20]

I'm gonna do you guys a favor and break it down to the bare bones. History provides the context. Democracy is viewed in more than one way here. ----- counsellors themselves have argued in the past that a ------- is actually an effective expression of democracy since if most people were dissatisfied with a man they could change him. Words from a man's mouth decades ago. Diplomatic dispatches as well as public announcements have conveyed this and there is nothing private about it.

People at the highest levels have ring fenced the fallibilty of such and protected it so that what once was ostensibly changeable is no longer so. Thus, with an available constant which purportedly transcends political shenanigans there is always available a way to gain control for those closest to it for the reason of national security. The exploitation of political disagreement to remove control from political parties.

That part of Thainess which so many of us love - tolerance, 'mai pben rai', acceptance - have been the enablers on a societal level, as well as religious and moral overtones. Political players come and go, but they are just the flotsam and jetsam on the tide I am trying to describe. If this post makes no sense, either you haven't been here long, or the generals and 'families' of the past 50 years have done a good job on you.

Edited August 2, 2015 by 15Peter20