PM: Almost the entire economic team to be replaced

[rubl]

Seem a little too late to replace the economic team after a full year of incompetency and continuous deterioration of the GDP. Full blame falls on the PM in stubbornly held his 'band of brothers' mentality and stick with this incompetent team for a full term. He should have replaced them at the first sign of economic malaise in the beginning of the year. Doubt Somkid and his men can do much for this year. Perhaps next year with some of Somkid's famous policies of targeting the domestic economy and less dependent on export.

Any government is blamed for current problems whether inherited or caused. That's normal.

As for the rest, well part of the blame should be shouldered by the Thai public and TVF members who continuously 'demand' the government look at this, do that, handle this, look at that. The PM seems too listen too much?

Not sure what Somkid can do. Targetting the domestic economy requires money and the government may be reluctant to borrow the odd trillions as the previous government wanted. Of cause the yearly 107 billion reservation just to pay back BAAC for the 'self-financing' RPPS doesn't help either (only seven years though).

To help the local economy by encouraging the population to spent while they're already heavily indebted won't be easy. To get local companies to increase salaries more than the few percent already discussed won't be easy either.

The bomb attack with 25 countries now having issued warning will cause more problems. Should the government have foreseen such attack? Maybe stricter surveillance is needed, like we see happening in the West?

Edited August 20, 2015 by rubl

[little mary sunshine]

Overpaid, unqualified Friends of Friends...one

Reason Thailand is in such a mess !!!!!

[Eric Loh]

Seem a little too late to replace the economic team after a full year of incompetency and continuous deterioration of the GDP. Full blame falls on the PM in stubbornly held his 'band of brothers' mentality and stick with this incompetent team for a full term. He should have replaced them at the first sign of economic malaise in the beginning of the year. Doubt Somkid and his men can do much for this year. Perhaps next year with some of Somkid's famous policies of targeting the domestic economy and less dependent on export.

Any government is blamed for current problems whether inherited or caused. That's normal.

As for the rest, well part of the blame should be shouldered by the Thai public and TVF members who continuously 'demand' the government look at this, do that, handle this, look at that. The PM seems too listen too much?

Not sure what Somkid can do. Targetting the domestic economy requires money and the government may be reluctant to borrow the odd trillions as the previous government wanted. Of cause the yearly 107 billion reservation just to pay back BAAC for the 'self-financing' RPPS doesn't help either (only seven years though).

To help the local economy by encouraging the population to spent while they're already heavily indebted won't be easy. To get local companies to increase salaries more than the few percent already discussed won't be easy either.

The bomb attack with 25 countries now having issued warning will cause more problems. Should the government have foreseen such attack? Maybe stricter surveillance is needed, like we see happening in the West?

Problem is not that the PM is listening too much but rather he listen only to selective few and himself.

Some of the economic malaise currently are well documented and I would think these will be first on the agenda for Somkid. He will have to expedite budget disbursement and entangle all the knots in the much delay infrastructure projects. He also have to address the NBTC hiccup and delay for 4G bidding and also speed up the bureaucratic mess that slow down the opening of the 5 SEZs.

Then he has to look into a stimulus package to help the SMEs and the eco-car project started by the previous government.

The household debt is a problem which created NPL fear and resulted in bank approval tightening. He has to find good policies to enable bank to lend and investors confidence.

Political instability is the big gorilla in the room and it's up to the PM to quickly announce the election date. He is as much a problem to economic recovery as the other factors.

[BSJ]

You can change all the rowers around in a row boat, but it will go no faster!

[gamini]

Somkid is a good choice. His appointment will help with reconciliation and show PTP supporters that he is fair and impartial.

[ldiablo]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

[tbthailand]

and of course if the next team doesn't "perform well as had been expected by the public." then the "public" will just vote the whole lot of them out of office...

<deleted>...

but wait, there's more...

He made clear that the new cabinet would have to work harder than the current one as they would have to start implementing reforms as well.

1) has the current dream team been on vacation for 15 months or what? And

2) there were supposed to be reforms-before-elections and elections promised for Sept 2015, so, now, when the new cabinet arrives at the beginning of Sept 2015, they "will have to start implementing reforms as well." ??

I hope no one is taking anything this man says seriously any longer....

[apetley]

Credit where credit's due....he's seen the economic policy dream team for the disaster that it is and has sacked the lot. It's a start.

One wonders what their qualifications for the posts were in the first place?

[Orac]

Credit where credit's due....he's seen the economic policy dream team for the disaster that it is and has sacked the lot. It's a start.

One wonders what their qualifications for the posts were in the first place?

I think Pridyathorn has great-grandfather rights to a cushy job.

I bet he is fuming, particularly since it appears Prayut hasn't even bothered telling him yet. Expecting him to work with Somkid is a touch naive as well since Somkid being brought in as an 'envoy' by Surayud was one of the reasons Pridyathorn resigned as deputy PM/finance minister in 2007 government.

[heybruce]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

Your reference is marketing material from a company trying to sell international investments. Bloomberg, a respected business publication, has a different view of the situation. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/post-coup-thailand-sees-economic-slump-putting-pressure-on-junta

[kiwikeith]

He announces an economic reshuffle now?

Just after the bombing?

[Baerboxer]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

Your reference is marketing material from a company trying to sell international investments. Bloomberg, a respected business publication, has a different view of the situation. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/post-coup-thailand-sees-economic-slump-putting-pressure-on-junta

Interesting article Brucie.

"factory output index has fallen every month but one since March 2013"

Looks like problems started under the previous government. What actions were they taking - the many cabinet reshuffles?

"A slowing China is hurting exports across the region, while Thailand’s elevated household debt is weighing on domestic consumption. To add to its woes, the country is suffering from its worst drought in more than a decade, with the brunt of the damage in agriculture, which makes up 7 percent of GDP, according to Capital Economics Ltd."

The Thai government, any Thai government, cannot be responsible for the Chinese economy, or the climate and weather issues, although they must try and manage the effects. Arguably this government managed the drought effects better than the previous government managed the floods effects.

Household debt - please tell us what polices the previous government introduced to curb household debt.

You responded with this article to a point about the levels of foreign investment. This article doesn't specifically mention the levels of foreign investment or any comparisons thereof.

Investors are usually more concerned about stability, and therefore predictability than any concerns on political persuasions or morality of those leading a country.

Edited August 20, 2015 by Baerboxer

[firestar]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

Your reference is marketing material from a company trying to sell international investments. Bloomberg, a respected business publication, has a different view of the situation. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/post-coup-thailand-sees-economic-slump-putting-pressure-on-junta

Interesting article Brucie.

"factory output index has fallen every month but one since March 2013"

Looks like problems started under the previous government. What actions were they taking - the many cabinet reshuffles?

"A slowing China is hurting exports across the region, while Thailand’s elevated household debt is weighing on domestic consumption. To add to its woes, the country is suffering from its worst drought in more than a decade, with the brunt of the damage in agriculture, which makes up 7 percent of GDP, according to Capital Economics Ltd."

The Thai government, any Thai government, cannot be responsible for the Chinese economy, or the climate and weather issues, although they must try and manage the effects. Arguably this government managed the drought effects better than the previous government managed the floods effects.

Household debt - please tell us what polices the previous government introduced to curb household debt.

You responded with this article to a point about the levels of foreign investment. This article doesn't specifically mention the levels of foreign investment or any comparisons thereof.

Investors are usually more concerned about stability, and therefore predictability than any concerns on political persuasions or morality of those leading a country.

Here is anbother different article for you

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-04/thailand-s-generals-don-t-have-an-economic-plan

Anyway, do you think the junta would change their entire economic team if they thought that team had done a good job? It's a common thing in business, sports, politics to replace an entire team when you believe they are performing..... It's obvious the Junta itself is not happy with how things are going, they wouldn't call upon Somkid otherwise.

But congrats you have managed to out junta the junta, where even they realize they performed poorly Baerboxer is here to the rescue.

______________

Edited August 20, 2015 by firestar

[Thai at Heart]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

Your reference is marketing material from a company trying to sell international investments. Bloomberg, a respected business publication, has a different view of the situation. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/post-coup-thailand-sees-economic-slump-putting-pressure-on-junta

Interesting article Brucie.

"factory output index has fallen every month but one since March 2013"

Looks like problems started under the previous government. What actions were they taking - the many cabinet reshuffles?

"A slowing China is hurting exports across the region, while Thailand’s elevated household debt is weighing on domestic consumption. To add to its woes, the country is suffering from its worst drought in more than a decade, with the brunt of the damage in agriculture, which makes up 7 percent of GDP, according to Capital Economics Ltd."

The Thai government, any Thai government, cannot be responsible for the Chinese economy, or the climate and weather issues, although they must try and manage the effects. Arguably this government managed the drought effects better than the previous government managed the floods effects.

Household debt - please tell us what polices the previous government introduced to curb household debt.

You responded with this article to a point about the levels of foreign investment. This article doesn't specifically mention the levels of foreign investment or any comparisons thereof.

Investors are usually more concerned about stability, and therefore predictability than any concerns on political persuasions or morality of those leading a country.

The issue is fdi rising in neighbouring countries and moving out of Thailand. They could liberalise all the protected businesses tomorrow and the investment would flood in.

Unfortunately that would impinge on the oligopoly in so many markets here, they would probably pay for another coup...

[jayboy]

Somkid, you may remember, was former PM Thaksin's economic leader for the Thai Rak Thai party, who was banned for 5 years from politics.

Well, having overseen years of growth under TRT, he can't be a bad choice. Devakula is a complete old school, pooyai fool.

Where is Korn? Can't he be dragged out for the good of the country. They have to get the economy moving somehow.

Liberalise investment rules and let the wonga flood in. Property reform, banking reform, agricultural reform. Of whoops. They are all staunch Democrats milking the country with their oligopoly......

I'm not starry eyed about Korn.He is compromised and should have shown greater courage during the PDRC debacle.He is culturally and personally close to the old discredited elites.Nevertheless he is manifestly able and a decent man to boot.

Despite the caveats above I believe it is unthinkable he would take a post with this incompetent and tainted government.As a relatively young man he has a brilliant career in prospect - possibly internationally and certainly in a free Thailand.He is independently wealthy.Why should he get into the gutter with these appalling people?

[smutcakes]

Somkid, you may remember, was former PM Thaksin's economic leader for the Thai Rak Thai party, who was banned for 5 years from politics.

Well, having overseen years of growth under TRT, he can't be a bad choice. Devakula is a complete old school, pooyai fool.

Where is Korn? Can't he be dragged out for the good of the country. They have to get the economy moving somehow.

Liberalise investment rules and let the wonga flood in. Property reform, banking reform, agricultural reform. Of whoops. They are all staunch Democrats milking the country with their oligopoly......

I'm not starry eyed about Korn.He is compromised and should have shown greater courage during the PDRC debacle.He is culturally and personally close to the old discredited elites.Nevertheless he is manifestly able and a decent man to boot.

Despite the caveats above I believe it is unthinkable he would take a post with this incompetent and tainted government.As a relatively young man he has a brilliant career in prospect - possibly internationally and certainly in a free Thailand.He is independently wealthy.Why should he get into the gutter with these appalling people?

Agree 100%, people like Korn should be the future of this country, if he and dare i say Abhisit could cut out on their own rather than being in the Democrats. It is really impossible though as any attempt they may have to change the way things work here would be swiftly cut down by the old guard of all persuasions.

In addition blood is thicker than water, and allegiances among older family members are obviously very strong.

[heybruce]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

Your reference is marketing material from a company trying to sell international investments. Bloomberg, a respected business publication, has a different view of the situation. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/post-coup-thailand-sees-economic-slump-putting-pressure-on-junta

Interesting article Brucie.

"factory output index has fallen every month but one since March 2013"

Looks like problems started under the previous government. What actions were they taking - the many cabinet reshuffles?

"A slowing China is hurting exports across the region, while Thailand’s elevated household debt is weighing on domestic consumption. To add to its woes, the country is suffering from its worst drought in more than a decade, with the brunt of the damage in agriculture, which makes up 7 percent of GDP, according to Capital Economics Ltd."

The Thai government, any Thai government, cannot be responsible for the Chinese economy, or the climate and weather issues, although they must try and manage the effects. Arguably this government managed the drought effects better than the previous government managed the floods effects.

Household debt - please tell us what polices the previous government introduced to curb household debt.

You responded with this article to a point about the levels of foreign investment. This article doesn't specifically mention the levels of foreign investment or any comparisons thereof.

Investors are usually more concerned about stability, and therefore predictability than any concerns on political persuasions or morality of those leading a country.

You don't think this refers to foreign investment?

"Thailand’s financial markets offer little respite. It is the only major equity market in Asia that has posted outflows this year, while corporate debt sales look set to miss last year’s record."

Do you think rule by decree with no checks and balances under Article 44 offers the predictability that investors are concerned about?

[Thai at Heart]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

Your reference is marketing material from a company trying to sell international investments. Bloomberg, a respected business publication, has a different view of the situation. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/post-coup-thailand-sees-economic-slump-putting-pressure-on-junta

Interesting article Brucie.

"factory output index has fallen every month but one since March 2013"

Looks like problems started under the previous government. What actions were they taking - the many cabinet reshuffles?

"A slowing China is hurting exports across the region, while Thailand’s elevated household debt is weighing on domestic consumption. To add to its woes, the country is suffering from its worst drought in more than a decade, with the brunt of the damage in agriculture, which makes up 7 percent of GDP, according to Capital Economics Ltd."

The Thai government, any Thai government, cannot be responsible for the Chinese economy, or the climate and weather issues, although they must try and manage the effects. Arguably this government managed the drought effects better than the previous government managed the floods effects.

Household debt - please tell us what polices the previous government introduced to curb household debt.

You responded with this article to a point about the levels of foreign investment. This article doesn't specifically mention the levels of foreign investment or any comparisons thereof.

Investors are usually more concerned about stability, and therefore predictability than any concerns on political persuasions or morality of those leading a country.

You don't think this refers to foreign investment?

"Thailand’s financial markets offer little respite. It is the only major equity market in Asia that has posted outflows this year, while corporate debt sales look set to miss last year’s record."

Do you think rule by decree with no checks and balances under Article 44 offers the predictability that investors are concerned about?

FDI is bricks and mortar manufacturing, not investment in the stock market.

[Tonawatchee]

Note to Supreme Commander, in future coups, have experienced Combat Economists ready to assume effective role in civilian government.

[englishoak]

He announces an economic reshuffle now?

Just after the bombing?

Kind of strange seeing as a cabinate reshuffle was cited as one original possible reasons.

Thats a lot of people being slapped in the face. Just saying.

[heybruce]

Your reference is marketing material from a company trying to sell international investments. Bloomberg, a respected business publication, has a different view of the situation. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/post-coup-thailand-sees-economic-slump-putting-pressure-on-junta

Interesting article Brucie.

"factory output index has fallen every month but one since March 2013"

Looks like problems started under the previous government. What actions were they taking - the many cabinet reshuffles?

"A slowing China is hurting exports across the region, while Thailand’s elevated household debt is weighing on domestic consumption. To add to its woes, the country is suffering from its worst drought in more than a decade, with the brunt of the damage in agriculture, which makes up 7 percent of GDP, according to Capital Economics Ltd."

The Thai government, any Thai government, cannot be responsible for the Chinese economy, or the climate and weather issues, although they must try and manage the effects. Arguably this government managed the drought effects better than the previous government managed the floods effects.

Household debt - please tell us what polices the previous government introduced to curb household debt.

You responded with this article to a point about the levels of foreign investment. This article doesn't specifically mention the levels of foreign investment or any comparisons thereof.

Investors are usually more concerned about stability, and therefore predictability than any concerns on political persuasions or morality of those leading a country.

You don't think this refers to foreign investment?

"Thailand’s financial markets offer little respite. It is the only major equity market in Asia that has posted outflows this year, while corporate debt sales look set to miss last year’s record."

Do you think rule by decree with no checks and balances under Article 44 offers the predictability that investors are concerned about?

FDI is bricks and mortar manufacturing, not investment in the stock market.

Yes, but foreign investment, stuff like foreign money invested in the Thai stock market, is foreign investment. That's all I commented on, I haven't posted about new bricks and mortar investments from abroad Are there any plans for significant new FDI money? If so, is any of it not coming from China?

[Broken Record]

lets hope they have western educations and understand wall street, Geo politics, FX, US FED, IMF, and can enforce the rule of law.

Yeah, just like the Financial powerhouses and Bankers in the West understood everything and had Western Education, before they caused chaos.

[Basil B]

As they say "do not fix it if it is not bust"...

But there again I think the PM has done the right thing ...well at least he trying another team.

[jayboy]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

Rubbish.I monitor FDI and equity inflows carefully and it is evident there has been a sharp decline in investment during this hapless military regime.Even the link you provide doesn't show other than a fall off.

[Thai at Heart]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

Rubbish.I monitor FDI and equity inflows carefully and it is evident there has been a sharp decline in investment during this hapless military regime.Even the link you provide doesn't show other than a fall off.

I agree. Whichever stat I drag up show its been falling since 2011. There was a bump in q1 this year, but the trend is down.

What easier way to boost exports than to attract foreign companies making exports. All the money and investment they pump into the country boosts investment in gdp.

Without this continued input, the Thai economy will inevitably slow since domestic consumption is relatively low in thailand. They have been losing their share to their neighbours while continuing to portray themselves as a hub.

Well the hub is expanding into neighbouring economies and it doesn't bode well for Thailand in the long term.

[rubl]

Seem a little too late to replace the economic team after a full year of incompetency and continuous deterioration of the GDP. Full blame falls on the PM in stubbornly held his 'band of brothers' mentality and stick with this incompetent team for a full term. He should have replaced them at the first sign of economic malaise in the beginning of the year. Doubt Somkid and his men can do much for this year. Perhaps next year with some of Somkid's famous policies of targeting the domestic economy and less dependent on export.

Any government is blamed for current problems whether inherited or caused. That's normal.

As for the rest, well part of the blame should be shouldered by the Thai public and TVF members who continuously 'demand' the government look at this, do that, handle this, look at that. The PM seems too listen too much?

Not sure what Somkid can do. Targetting the domestic economy requires money and the government may be reluctant to borrow the odd trillions as the previous government wanted. Of cause the yearly 107 billion reservation just to pay back BAAC for the 'self-financing' RPPS doesn't help either (only seven years though).

To help the local economy by encouraging the population to spent while they're already heavily indebted won't be easy. To get local companies to increase salaries more than the few percent already discussed won't be easy either.

The bomb attack with 25 countries now having issued warning will cause more problems. Should the government have foreseen such attack? Maybe stricter surveillance is needed, like we see happening in the West?

Problem is not that the PM is listening too much but rather he listen only to selective few and himself.

Some of the economic malaise currently are well documented and I would think these will be first on the agenda for Somkid. He will have to expedite budget disbursement and entangle all the knots in the much delay infrastructure projects. He also have to address the NBTC hiccup and delay for 4G bidding and also speed up the bureaucratic mess that slow down the opening of the 5 SEZs.

Then he has to look into a stimulus package to help the SMEs and the eco-car project started by the previous government.

The household debt is a problem which created NPL fear and resulted in bank approval tightening. He has to find good policies to enable bank to lend and investors confidence.

Political instability is the big gorilla in the room and it's up to the PM to quickly announce the election date. He is as much a problem to economic recovery as the other factors.

From "full blame" you now start to sound much more reasonable and objective. Maybe you realised that worldwide governments tend to re-act and there are enough examples where governments weren't re-acting optimal and certainly not pro-active ?

So, yes indeed much to do. Current governments always blamed for the mess others left behind.

BTW eco-car project? You mean this from December 2014?

http://thinkasiainvestthailand.com/boiblog/index.php/19-second-phase-of-thailand-s-eco-car-program-a-success

or this from July 2007

"BOI drives the eco-car forward

The Board of Investment announced in mid-June its investment promotion scheme for Eco-Car manufacturing, whereby maximum incentives are now offered for integrated car assembly and key parts manufacturing projects."

http://www.boi.go.th/tir/issue_content.php?issueid=30;page=0

[rubl]

I agree with Baerboxer. As much as I dislike the current government it is clearly obvious thst foreign investment has not decreased bit has increased since the junta took control.

https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment

Rubbish.I monitor FDI and equity inflows carefully and it is evident there has been a sharp decline in investment during this hapless military regime.Even the link you provide doesn't show other than a fall off.

I agree. Whichever stat I drag up show its been falling since 2011. There was a bump in q1 this year, but the trend is down.

What easier way to boost exports than to attract foreign companies making exports. All the money and investment they pump into the country boosts investment in gdp.

Without this continued input, the Thai economy will inevitably slow since domestic consumption is relatively low in thailand. They have been losing their share to their neighbours while continuing to portray themselves as a hub.

Well the hub is expanding into neighbouring economies and it doesn't bode well for Thailand in the long term.

"What easier way to boost exports than to attract foreign companies making exports"

Even foreign companies would have a problem exporting if there's no one to buy their stuff. Problem with a bit more global malaise.

[EnglishJohn]

Somkid Jatusripitak better known as Thaksin Shinawatra's deputy prime minister and finance minister to the rescue

But wait... according to some here weren't Thaksin's chums all incompetents who ruined Thailand....

No, they were a dirty bunch of cronies who stole billions of baht from the taxpayer then for afters they voted 310:0 to absolve themselves of all corruption charges since 2004.

Then they murdered people who protested about this on the street.

Incompetent comes some way down the list of what they were. But hey - your version is a lot simpler for you to understand so you may as well stick with it.

At least (as far as I know) Somkid is not a self-confessed liar like the last mate Thaksin put in the position.