Bangkok bomb: The different theories considered, and why they are met with skepticism

[webfact]

AFTERMATH
The different theories considered, and why they are met with skepticism
PRAVIT ROJANAPHRUK
THE NATION



BANGKOK: -- So far, at least six theories have emerged in the aftermath of the deadly bombing at Bangkok's Erawan Shrine, which left up to 20 dead and over a hundred others injured. The theories range from the Uighur minority from the west of China, Islamic terrorists, the anti-government red shirts to separatists from the South and the military junta itself.

Here are the theories and why they may or may not hold water:

THE UIGHUR

The government repatriated more than a hundred of the Uighur people who had fled to Thailand from China and were looking to make their way to Turkey. This move caused anger and can be considered a motive for revenge. CCTV footage shows a man, possibly Uighur looking, entering the shrine, leaving behind a backpack and walking out of the area shortly before the explosion. The Erawan Shrine is popular among Chinese tourists.

Police have pointed out that this type of bomb has not been previously used in Thailand, and though some entertain the Uighur theory, others say this Chinese minority does not have the ability or a level of hatred high enough to unleash an attack as deadly as this.

THAI-MALAY SEPARATISTS

BBC's defence and diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus was quoted as saying that this theory is possible, noting that the separatists have been "fighting Thai rule for more than a decade".

Police, however, say this type of bomb has never been used in the deep South, and Marcus himself says that the separatists have never targeted the capital. Also, he said, attacks and causalities in the deep South have been dropping.

Army chief General Udomdej Sitabutr said on television that this blast did not match the incidents in the South.

ISLAMIC STATE OR AL-QAEDA-LINKED

JIHADIST GROUPS

Reuters quoted Angel Rabasa, an expert on Islamist militancy at the RAND Corporation, as saying that these groups are expanding their reach in Southeast Asia.

Now Rabasa himself is casting doubts on this theory as such groups usually take responsibility for their attacks.

THE RED SHIRTS

Immediately after the attack, government spokesperson Maj-General Sansern Kaewkamnerd indicated that those who had lost political power might have been behind the attack. Subscribers to this theory claim that supporters of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, wanting to undermine General Prayut Chan-o-cha's government and to sink the economy, are desperate enough to opt for such extreme measures.

Many social-media users have cast doubt on this theory, saying this attack is far too cruel and indiscriminate to be carried out by Thais.

Others say the government stands to gain more by using this incident as an excuse to stay in power longer - they could claim that the country is not ready for elections and introduce more draconian measures to control the population.

THE MILITARY JUNTA

Many pro-Thaksin red shirts believe the bombing was engineered by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to prolong its stay by convincing people that Thailand is not ready for elections and by placing the blame on the red shirts and Thaksin.

Those subscribing to this theory find the quick clearing out of the bombing site suspicious and possibly a move to remove evidence.

However, this idea has been rejected by some, who say the NCPO and the government stands to lose more from the blast, as it would have a very severe impact on Thai tourism.

They also find it difficult to comprehend that any government can commit such cruelty.

THOSE UNHAPPY WITH LATEST MILITARY RESHUFFLE

There has been some speculation that those who stand to lose from the latest military reshuffle decided to express their displeasure in a very deadly manner.

This theory has been rejected by some, who say there is no history of such extreme action being taken in response to a military reshuffle.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/The-different-theories-considered-and-why-they-are-30267028.html

-- The Nation 2015-08-20

[lildragon]

The Uighur theory seems to be picking up steam.

[Jingthing]

The OP sums of the weirdness of this. There really are good reasons to rule out ALL of those theories. But the bomb happened so one of them is probably right!

[Thai at Heart]

What does the statement that Uighur don't have the ability to carry this out. Didn't anyone notice that the south is a Muslim problem? And that isil doesn't care other than to support Muslim insurgency worldwide. My god, what a truly dumb editorial

[Jingthing]

Well I'm not an expert on Uighar terrorism in China but I don't think they've carried out a bomb like this there so it's not logical they would do that in Thailand before China. But surely there could be a alliance network between Uighars and other groups ... the complexities are endless unless we actually discover which group(s) did this and why. The only "theory" I totally reject is a long wolf madman with no organization and no agenda. This was too big and too organized for that.

[NongKhaiKid]

Little wonder there's skepticism over anything that's said and it's all self-inflicted.

The govt, BIB and Thai officialdom are always in a rush to say something when there's little or no evidence to go on, they just have to talk to show they are in control, supposedly. . Everyone's at it, then they talk at cross purposes and the whole issue can degenerate into farce but they blunder on so as not to lose face.

[NeverSure]

Well I'm not an expert on Uighar terrorism in China but I don't think they've carried out a bomb like this there so it's not logical they would do that in Thailand before China. But surely there could be a alliance network between Uighars and other groups ... the complexities are endless unless we actually discover which group(s) did this and why. The only "theory" I totally reject is a long wolf madman with no organization and no agenda. This was too big and too organized for that.

I just posted this in another thread but The Guardian says that China thinks it was aimed at Chinese tourists. LINK

[Jingthing]

Well so far the Uighur theory is making the most sense, but we still don't really KNOW yet.

[impulse]

I just posted this in another thread but The Guardian says that China thinks it was aimed at Chinese tourists. LINK

The CCP is looking for international support in their oppression of the non- Han minorities in their west. No better way to gain that support than to convince the world they're blood thirsty terrorists.

I wouldn't trust a word they publish on the topic.

[Valentine]

"Many social-media users have cast doubt on this theory, saying this attack is far too cruel and indiscriminate to be carried out by Thais."

Short memories as it was not that long ago a bomb was thrown into a crowd killing children after which another crowd cheered about it when told.

Anyway, at present there still seems to be no clear evidence on who or what group was responsible. There should be a single spokesperson appointed for this otherwise the continuing opening of the mouth by those who want to feel important & spouting gibberish will continue.

[tonbridgebrit]

Well I'm not an expert on Uighar terrorism in China but I don't think they've carried out a bomb like this there so it's not logical they would do that in Thailand before China. But surely there could be a alliance network between Uighars and other groups ... the complexities are endless unless we actually discover which group(s) did this and why. The only "theory" I totally reject is a long wolf madman with no organization and no agenda. This was too big and too organized for that.

I just posted this in another thread but The Guardian says that China thinks it was aimed at Chinese tourists. LINK

People who are against the Chinese tourists, and/or they are against the non-Chinese tourists, they must be stopped.

[Charlie Croker]

Of the few people I have spoken to, there seems strong belief that the red shirts faction carried this out.

What is omitted in the story is the date, the location, the timing, the intended target and secondary target, and the history of red shirts using bombs to intimidate people. The date is 1 day from the 2010 clash between red shirts and government troops, at the same location.

So what if the bomb was bigger than before? The point is its a bomb. its the same M.O.

There was a bombing of a market in Chachoengsao on April 19th last year and police found 1,900 ping pong bombs following the bombing. Ask yourselves this question. How many people can be killed with 1,900 ping pong bombs? I suggest more than 20.

As for the fact that a Thai person didn't do it, lets wait and see how that theory pans out.

Another factor is the timing in relation to the stripping of Thaksins rank.

Another factor omitted in the story is the obvious collateral damage, the Thai economy. Who else has a history of trying to destabilize the economy?

If they did it, why not admit it?, that's obvious too, its a terrific political blunder. I think this could be a final nail in the coffin of this movement if it can be proven.

While its important to remain even handed, its also important to consider all the facts.

Edited August 20, 2015 by Charlie Croker

[AlQaholic]

One theory is missing.......

[NCC1701A]

what about just a crazy guy... on meds. with his own agenda.

Edited August 20, 2015 by NCC1701A

[tethered goat]

Let us just assume for a moment that the Uighur theory is correct.There is no way that the Junta could possibly admit that the reason for this horrendous attack was caused by Prayuth ignoring international law in sending people back to a country that would likely put them in detention torture them or kill them.So if there is a Uighur link it will be corrupted into something that is more convienent for junta spin.

[lovelomsak]

Theories are theories I will wait till they are caught.

Did anyone notice the man in the red shirt was sitting exactly in the spot where the yellow shirt man sat sown. He stood up as soon as the other man came as if to give him the seat. Then the red shirt and white shirt guys made a screen by standing in front of the yellow shirt. Hiding his removal of backpack from most people. After the backpack was off the red and white walked away. Looked to me very organized. Appears to be done by people with very good training May have been trained by someone with military background or in military.

[sungod]

Of the few people I have spoken to, there seems strong belief that the red shirts faction carried this out.

What is omitted in the story is the date, the location, the timing, the intended target and secondary target, and the history of red shirts using bombs to intimidate people. The date is 1 day from the 2010 clash between red shirts and government troops, at the same location.

So what if the bomb was bigger than before? The point is its a bomb. its the same M.O.

There was a bombing of a market in Chachoengsao on April 19th last year and police found 1,900 ping pong bombs following the bombing. Ask yourselves this question. How many people can be killed with 1,900 ping pong bombs? I suggest more than 20.

As for the fact that a Thai person didn't do it, lets wait and see how that theory pans out.

Another factor is the timing in relation to the stripping of Thaksins rank.

Another factor omitted in the story is the obvious collateral damage, the Thai economy. Who else has a history of trying to destabilize the economy?

If they did it, why not admit it?, that's obvious too, its a terrific political blunder. I think this could be a final nail in the coffin of this movement if it can be proven.

While its important to remain even handed, its also important to consider all the facts.

Hi Charlie,

I thought the date of the clash in 2010 was May 19th, was there another?

[NCC1701A]

"Many social-media users have cast doubt on this theory, saying this attack is far too cruel and indiscriminate to be carried out by Thais."

are these the same people who cut the heads off of pigs and display them in the market while standing in a sea of fish blood and fish that are flopping around gasping for air all day, waiting for a zombie to cut their heads off with a butchers knife?

[farang000999]

I really don't see what the red shirts gain by this attack. It is quite a reach.

[farang000999]

So if it was the red shirts, what was the point of the attack? They can't use it to extort the government because the government would gladly come forward and inform the public that the red shirts were behind it. Therefore they cannot claim responsibility.

The only theory is that it would hurt tourism.

Tourism is only a small percent of the economy and even a 10-15% decrease in tourists is not going to make a big dent and you want to risk being found out over that?

The red shirt theory seems like a very long reach.

Edited August 20, 2015 by farang000999

[Loaded]

Whoever was responsible for this attack has managed to undermine the authority of the current junta. The junta couldn't prevent this attack, they can't catch the culprits and they don't even know where to start looking.

[oneday]

What I do not understand is what is the point in a bomb like this from a group of people with an agenda such as ISIS if they do not take responsibility for it. How else does their message get out. These terror groups almost always take responsibility.

One reason might be for one group to throw suspicion on another group, but you would think if this were the case the first group would plant or leave clear evidence pointing to the other group. For instance, this could be thought of as the military versus red shirts. There is just too much of a chance this could backfire for them and as a lot of people say, this isn't like Thai people to be this indiscriminately destructive and vicious.

Now someone who is just mad at something or someone and wants revenge would have no reason to take responsibility and no reason to leave evidence pointing to any group or announce some message.

[simple1]

Well I'm not an expert on Uighar terrorism in China but I don't think they've carried out a bomb like this there so it's not logical they would do that in Thailand before China. But surely there could be a alliance network between Uighars and other groups ... the complexities are endless unless we actually discover which group(s) did this and why. The only "theory" I totally reject is a long wolf madman with no organization and no agenda. This was too big and too organized for that.

It's been claimed Uighars are fighting with the Taliban, ISIS and some other Islamist groups so it's quite possible they would have people with the skill to build an IED designed for mass causalities. On the other side of the coin there are so many variable political motivations, so at this stage impossible to pin down to one group.

[UKCanuk]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand. When queried on why the bombing was timed to explode at a peak visiting period, she said maybe it was a lone nutcase who was just desperate to destroy the shrine without considering the carnage to the worshipers.

[farang000999]

What I do not understand is what is the point in a bomb like this from a group of people with an agenda such as ISIS if they do not take responsibility for it. How else does their message get out. These terror groups almost always take responsibility.

One reason might be for one group to throw suspicion on another group, but you would think if this were the case the first group would plant or leave clear evidence pointing to the other group. For instance, this could be thought of as the military versus red shirts. There is just too much of a chance this could backfire for them and as a lot of people say, this isn't like Thai people to be this indiscriminately destructive and vicious.

Now someone who is just mad at something or someone and wants revenge would have no reason to take responsibility and no reason to leave evidence pointing to any group or announce some message.

One possibility is that they are planning more attacks in Thailand and do not want to tip off the Thai government about whom is responsible. Let them search for everyone instead of a select few.

[farang000999]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand.

Sounds like nonsense.

[Orac]

Could it be some of the thaivisa extremists that have banded together in order to destabilize the govt or frame the Thaksinistas - has anyone checked the TV message logs?

Or maybe the Vietnamese trying to divert a few tourists.

[Halion]

What medicine are they on when they claim that this attack was simply too brutal to be conducted by Thai's. This is a violent and brutal country in almost every aspect of life. Violent death is a daily occurrence in one form or another,yet they pontificate that Thai's would not do this.

This type of nationalistic hype serves no purpose outside the delusional

[farang000999]

Because being found out would surely be more determential than whatever slight gain may be made politically.

[farang000999]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand.

Sounds like nonsense.

I think there could be more to this angle.

Thaksin is a very superstitious guy and once before tried to have the Erawan Shrine destroyed, as the belief is that it is a 'protector' of the Monarchy (his arch rival).

Why didn't he destroy it when he destroyed Central World?

You are now claiming that the mentally challenged man who attacked it with a hammer and was beaten to death was sent by Thaksin?