Bangkok bomb: The different theories considered, and why they are met with skepticism

[kiwikeith]

Theories are theories I will wait till they are caught.

Did anyone notice the man in the red shirt was sitting exactly in the spot where the yellow shirt man sat sown. He stood up as soon as the other man came as if to give him the seat. Then the red shirt and white shirt guys made a screen by standing in front of the yellow shirt. Hiding his removal of backpack from most people. After the backpack was off the red and white walked away. Looked to me very organized. Appears to be done by people with very good training May have been trained by someone with military background or in military.

Did you notice also that they said the yellow shirt pretended to take pic on his phone -- looked to me like he brought up the screen to select a number then he walked away hit dial and up she went.

Very well organised and well made bomb.

The Thais got put off purchasing chinese submarines a few weeks back, I would not put this past the CIA and if it was them no one will ever find them guilty and it will be all theory and blame.

It was definately aimed at Chinese if they had of blown up Nana and killed heaps of europeans and Thais there would be more hell to play.

A message not to get to cozy with china but just a theory that is plausible as the ones above.

If this was targeted at Chinese, then the perpetrators chose their target poorly. I live in Chiang Mai and Chinese tourists are everywhere in packs. There are busloads of them here who would be easy targets with minimal or no collateral damage to other ethnicities. Plus CCTV surveillance here is nothing compared to what it is in Bangkok. It seems to me that the perpetrators chose the shrine right smack in the middle of Bangkok for some reason other than to harm a particular group of people.

One thing does seem quite clear, whoever did it doesn't want to be found or identified since no one has taken any responsibility for this heinous act. Even those groups who could take responsibility are shying away from publicly saying so.

There are plenty of chinese Thai with big bussiness interests that would not want to loose their bundle invested in Hotels and resorts ect... if a few more of these went off.

Edited August 20, 2015 by kiwikeith

[Kru Baa]

One theory is missing.......

What theory would that be? Really I want to hear it.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Of the few people I have spoken to, there seems strong belief that the red shirts faction carried this out.

What is omitted in the story is the date, the location, the timing, the intended target and secondary target, and the history of red shirts using bombs to intimidate people. The date is 1 day from the 2010 clash between red shirts and government troops, at the same location.

So what if the bomb was bigger than before? The point is its a bomb. its the same M.O.

There was a bombing of a market in Chachoengsao on April 19th last year and police found 1,900 ping pong bombs following the bombing. Ask yourselves this question. How many people can be killed with 1,900 ping pong bombs? I suggest more than 20.

As for the fact that a Thai person didn't do it, lets wait and see how that theory pans out.

Another factor is the timing in relation to the stripping of Thaksins rank.

Another factor omitted in the story is the obvious collateral damage, the Thai economy. Who else has a history of trying to destabilize the economy?

If they did it, why not admit it?, that's obvious too, its a terrific political blunder. I think this could be a final nail in the coffin of this movement if it can be proven.

While its important to remain even handed, its also important to consider all the facts.

Hi Charlie,

I thought the date of the clash in 2010 was May 19th, was there another?

facts.

Edited August 20, 2015 by WinnieTheKhwai

[Kru Baa]

I'm leaning towards the Junta theory. "Thailand is not ready for democracy yet because they need us to keep them safe" Could be a false flag thing. Sounds just like another country I know. Or I have another theory but it's kind of far out there.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

You mean more out there than the above? It's severely out of character for (non-Muslim/Malay) Thais with a political agenda to hit a religious site / image of a deity. (Not to mention out of character to commit mass murder of people having nothing to do with their cause. (As opposed to lobbing a ping pong bomb at actual protesters and/or the property of political leaders and then usually at night while nobody is there.) THAT is not out of character in Thai political violence, but this really is different.

So yes, this includes the military who are also Thai; I can just about see them perpetrating the fairly low intensity acts that went on before the coup such as lobbing a grenade at a mostly empty building to create legitimacy in their minds, and indeed provocateur acts are well documented from past military governments. But this is out of character for them too.

(I do appreciate that a bomb is not something that can be accurately dialed in as to how much carnage it causes. Still, the clear intent here is to kill innocent people, which is not typical for Thai political violence by any of the 3 (or so) sides.

Edited August 20, 2015 by WinnieTheKhwai

[Jim walker]

Never a red wearing a Yellow shirt and it looks like a Thai that planted the bomb not a foreigner as a foreigner would never be seen dead wearing a yellow shirt like that. So some unhappy locals do the bombing but how could this be as Junta says every Thai is happy now with a general as pretend PM.

[Just1Voice]

I posted this in another thread, but it fits here as well.

Everyone is so busy throwing around theories, how about this one? Suthep.

This man is so corrupt and dirty that even members of his own Democratic Party (when he was still a Demo) said he was the dirtiest and most corrupt politician they had ever known. With this man's past, I wouldn't put ANYTHING past him. His reasons? Create panic, keep the Junta in power. Not to had to imagine when it comes to him.

[JDGRUEN]

As I said - none of the 6 theories feels right. Perhaps that weakling just wanted to make headlines and have his face printed on a glossy magazine, being idolized. Have a look at this - it's shocking:

I have to agree to a degree... the looks of the guy on moving video - not the stills taken from it, make him look geeky, gawky, pencil necked. The composite art depicting the Perp's face just does not seem to take this into consideration - what the moving video made him look like. I would hope the artist who drew the composite had benefit of some still photos taken by some tourists' cameras with a greater resolution than the stills taken from the video. If this is not the case -- I just do not agree with the artist's composite drawing as being reflective of what the perp actually looks like.

But from looking at the video, it strikes me that this fellow is not a hard core killer recruited to do the job. But rather he struck me as a disturbed young guy taking revenge for some wrong he thinks was done to him personally. His video image struck me as being a kissing cousin of several of the malcontent mass shooters of late in America. This is geeky, gawky, pencil necked weaklings, lashing out at the innocent to get back at 'the system' for slighting him and causing him some great imagined offense.

Delusional minds do strange things. They can even fantasize about being aligned with one or the other side in the years long internal Thailand political disputes.., thus striking a blow for his side. The 'perp' did not strike me as an Asian of any kind,,, His walking gate - his body language - struck me as a Caucasian and not the face depicted in the composite drawing.

Delusional minds can even make pending expulsion from Thailand for creating problems here as being good reason for striking out as pay backs against what he sees as an unjust system.

Personally (and I will be happy to stand corrected when strong evidence comes to light), I just do not believe a conspiracy will be found. I believe this guy is a loner who has enough talent to create access to bomb materials - assemble a bomb and take his revenge (for whatever insult - affront done to him whether real or imagined) by making it seem it was just another awful event of the national political problems ...

Edited August 20, 2015 by JDGRUEN

[Tonto21]

Thers is no hope................"Many social-media users have cast doubt on this theory, saying this attack is far too cruel and indiscriminate to be carried out by Thais"

Head....Sand and ostrich, just 3 words that come to mind.

[Jonmarleesco]

'Many social-media users have cast doubt on this theory, saying this attack is far too cruel and indiscriminate to be carried out by Thais.' Well, some group were responsible, and there is no more reason to dismiss their being Thai than any other nationality.
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[simonuk]

The Uighur theory seems to be picking up steam.

Would certainly suit the Chinese. ..and the boss man would just spin it as evidence as to why they should not be allowed to reside in the peaceful kingdom

[simonuk]

'Many social-media users have cast doubt on this theory, saying this attack is far too cruel and indiscriminate to be carried out by Thais.' Well, some group were responsible, and there is no more reason to dismiss their being Thai than any other nationality.

​

Although if tens of thousands of your countrymen have been killed and are living in poverty this would provoke extreme fury in some. I e Palestine Afghanistan etc.

Just being frustrated at your nations election process and coups should not provoke the same anger

[silverado]

'Many social-media users have cast doubt on this theory, saying this attack is far too cruel and indiscriminate to be carried out by Thais.' Well, some group were responsible, and there is no more reason to dismiss their being Thai than any other nationality.

​

so, should be NO skepticism about ALL the different theories....

Edited August 20, 2015 by silverado

[metisdead]

Please use discretion in your references to the government. Phrases which can be considered as anti-coup will be removed. Referring to Thailand or the government as a dictatorship, military dictatorship or other such terms will be removed.

[halloween]

You mean more out there than the above? It's severely out of character for (non-Muslim/Malay) Thais with a political agenda to hit a religious site / image of a deity. (Not to mention out of character to commit mass murder of people having nothing to do with their cause. (As opposed to lobbing a ping pong bomb at actual protesters and/or the property of political leaders and then usually at night while nobody is there.) THAT is not out of character in Thai political violence, but this really is different.

So yes, this includes the military who are also Thai; I can just about see them perpetrating the fairly low intensity acts that went on before the coup such as lobbing a grenade at a mostly empty building to create legitimacy in their minds, and indeed provocateur acts are well documented from past military governments. But this is out of character for them too.

(I do appreciate that a bomb is not something that can be accurately dialed in as to how much carnage it causes. Still, the clear intent here is to kill innocent people, which is not typical for Thai political violence by any of the 3 (or so) sides.

"It's severely out of character for (non-Muslim/Malay) Thais with a political agenda to hit a religious site / image of a deity. "

Except when a red shirt named Bundit fired an RPG at the Emerald Buddha. And several at the Dusit Thani Hotel. And at a fuel tank farm. And fired M-79s all over the bloody place.

[balo]

I still believe it could have beeen just one lunatic, a self radicalized person that acted alone. Compare it with the Breivik massacre in Norway, first they believed it was a big organized terror attack but only one man did the evil acts and almost got away with it. You never know.

Edited August 20, 2015 by balo

[Kru Baa]

Phrases considered to be too close to the truth will be removed. (Understandably as the people who run this site don't want to be arrested.)

[WinnieTheKhwai]

You mean more out there than the above? It's severely out of character for (non-Muslim/Malay) Thais with a political agenda to hit a religious site / image of a deity. (Not to mention out of character to commit mass murder of people having nothing to do with their cause. (As opposed to lobbing a ping pong bomb at actual protesters and/or the property of political leaders and then usually at night while nobody is there.) THAT is not out of character in Thai political violence, but this really is different.

So yes, this includes the military who are also Thai; I can just about see them perpetrating the fairly low intensity acts that went on before the coup such as lobbing a grenade at a mostly empty building to create legitimacy in their minds, and indeed provocateur acts are well documented from past military governments. But this is out of character for them too.

(I do appreciate that a bomb is not something that can be accurately dialed in as to how much carnage it causes. Still, the clear intent here is to kill innocent people, which is not typical for Thai political violence by any of the 3 (or so) sides.

"It's severely out of character for (non-Muslim/Malay) Thais with a political agenda to hit a religious site / image of a deity. "

Except when a red shirt named Bundit fired an RPG at the Emerald Buddha. And several at the Dusit Thani Hotel. And at a fuel tank farm. And fired M-79s all over the bloody place.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/659741-court-acquits-thai-policeman-accused-of-launching-rpg-attacks/

(Try again)

Also the claim that the target was the temple was government spin, and somewhat ludicrous as well. That line never surfaced again.

Anyway we may be getting sidetracked. My point was that it's out of character for political violence from any side. ( Intentional mass murder of innocent people who have nothing to do with any Thailand-related political goal would be new. )

Edited August 20, 2015 by WinnieTheKhwai

[Jingthing]

I still believe it could have beeen just one lunatic, a self radicalized person that acted alone. Compare it with the Breivik massacre in Norway, first they believed it was a big organized terror attack but only one man did the evil acts and almost got away with it. You never know.

Well, I don't, but even that example isn't exactly correct. That mass murderer was indeed motivated by a radical right wing political ideology. It wasn't just mental illness. There was a political agenda, actually an explicit one.

Yes, there are a lot of pretty wild and scary theories being bandied about, but one of them (or a variation) is the truth (whether we ever know or not) but for some reason the crazy lone wolf angle to me seems the MOST unlikely.

Edited August 20, 2015 by Jingthing

[smedly]

The Uighur theory seems to be picking up steam.

I honestly don't believe it, whoever carried this out had a clear motive, to effect the Thai economy and tourism, I would completely rule out anything to do with terrorists as they have an agenda and always claim responsibility for their actions simply because they want something otherwise what's the point

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I still believe it could have beeen just one lunatic, a self radicalized person that acted alone. Compare it with the Breivik massacre in Norway, first they believed it was a big organized terror attack but only one man did the evil acts and almost got away with it. You never know.

Well, I don't, but even that example isn't exactly correct. That mass murderer was indeed motivated by a radical right wing political ideology. It wasn't just mental illness. There was a political agenda, actually an explicit one.

True, true. Still, even among radical right wing lunatics it's a bit of a stretch to then go slaughter young people of your own racial background and belonging to a mainstream political movement. Any imagined goal or effect of doing that existed only in Breivik's head and indeed he achieved the opposite of his delusional aims.

Compare also: Oklahoma; yes the political agenda was at the root of his delusion, but -like Balo wrote above- they were self-radicalized lone wolfs, not part of an organization of any kind.

That's incredibly difficult to prevent using intelligence, surveillance, etc. Borderline impossible actually, and that's in the US or Norway.

Edited August 20, 2015 by WinnieTheKhwai

[bamnutsak]

Many "authorities" are commenting publicly, and causing more confusion. Of course, the Junta is threatening everyone with prosecution if they spread "mis-information" on social media.

In a BP article posted a few hours ago...an NCPO "spokesman, Winthai Suvaree, said it was "organized crime"?

Col Winthai said the bombing was probably the work of organised crime, or kabuankarn.

In that same article, there was this interesting nugget...

AFP news agency reported on Thursday that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha said he would not attend a memorial service for the victims at the shrine on Friday because of growing fears for his safety.

[simple1]

So many different topics, but thought I'd post again as maybe of interest to TV detectives.

As soon as the image of the alleged bomber was posted online, Internet users didn't take long to zero in on where one could find the shirt the suspect is wearing: an Indonesian clothing shop and corresponding website called Amaranthine Fashion.

http://mashable.com/2015/08/18/bangkok-bomber-yellow-shirt/

[cumgranosalum]

What does the statement that Uighur don't have the ability to carry this out. Didn't anyone notice that the south is a Muslim problem? And that isil doesn't care other than to support Muslim insurgency worldwide. My god, what a truly dumb editorial

It would seem that yours is even dumber though.....just who are ISIL fighting in Syria and Iraq? Muslims.....the south isn't a Muslim problem, it's a separatist movement....the only problem with "muslims" is your own blinkered perception

Just cuz you're not paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.

Absolutely, but it does mean I'm able to take a rational view of the situation.

[Travelman868]

I can't see it being the red shirts. If they were found to be guily they would be unelectable forever.

My view:- Any group who would behead small children, would certainly not worry about killing with pipe bombs. So Islamists

[Jingthing]

I can't see it being the red shirts. If they were found to be guily they would be unelectable forever.

My view:- Any group who would behead small children, would certainly not worry about killing with pipe bombs. So Islamists

I am not saying it was a red shirt faction but your point doesn't make it impossible. A red shirt faction MIGHT do such a thing with the expectation of never taking credit and assuming it could never be proven it was them. Why? Well a number of factions (including a red shirt one) might think they can gain advantage by destabilizing the nation ... politically and economically, as it is during such times when political revolutions have a better chance of success in any country.

Also keep in mind there is no such thing as a monolithic red shirt faction. Like any political movement, there are different factions within the factions, and some more radical than others.

Bottom line, any of the different theories are theoretically possible and probably none of those is exactly true ... there is some force behind this and I think we all want to know about it.

Of course I don't know if the public will EVER know with any certainty or whether instead people will be speculating about this forever. But KNOWING for sure has some very scary consequences as well, depending on which faction it is that is seen to be guilty.

Edited August 20, 2015 by Jingthing

[cookee68]

And we can rule out Thai's because they would not have enough hatred in their hearts to do this, Yeah Right, So it must be a Foreigner, But why would a foreigner hate Thailand so much to do this, Well, thats the big Question Thailand that you need to address first

[car720]

The Uighur theory seems to be picking up steam.

Except they prefer to use knives and make a big splash doing it. It draws more attention to their plight.

[Bezdomny]

Why they clean up so quickly?

Why hurry?

Who is trained to deal with TNT or C4?

[tukkytuktuk]

Interesting article about the curse of the Erawan Shrine. http://www.thailawforum.com/erawan-shrine-curse.html

Well worth reading.