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Stock Market CRASH Thread....Are we all doomed?


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The Chinese stock market has no relationship to Chinese industry and/or economic conditions hence it is just like a casino. Even the numbnuts on CNN have reported this, this week. No one with any brains in the West invests in the Chinese stock market.

Here's one such person "without a brain": http://jimtalksmarkets.blogspot.com/2015/08/china-bought-more-stocks-when-they.html

He said in that link, "10 years from now no one will be trading in US dollars." Ya right. I like Jim but when he moved to China he must have left his brain in NYC.

I recall an economist saying exactly that some years back, and that timeline has long gone.

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The Chinese stock market has no relationship to Chinese industry and/or economic conditions hence it is just like a casino. Even the numbnuts on CNN have reported this, this week. No one with any brains in the West invests in the Chinese stock market.

Here's one such person "without a brain": http://jimtalksmarkets.blogspot.com/2015/08/china-bought-more-stocks-when-they.html

He said in that link, "10 years from now no one will be trading in US dollars." Ya right. I like Jim but when he moved to China he must have left his brain in NYC.

I recall an economist saying exactly that some years back, and that timeline has long gone.

That's part of Roger's modus operandi. He often will throw in one or two seemingly outlandish predictions into otherwise level-headed opinion pieces. Ten years ago he was throwing out nuggets like "sugar farmers will become the richest men in America" but presumably some of his other market calls made money.

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I'm selling my house, and one of the lookers a while back was the Head of School, Economics, at a Melbourne University. We were standing on my verandah looking over the river, and I asked what was happening in the world, economically, just her opinion.

Her response was, "Don't ask me.....I'm an economist"!!!

I then told her the joke....If you put all the economists in the world head to toe, they wouldn't reach......................................................................................................... a conclusion!!

Edited by F4UCorsair
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if the stock market can fall 469 points which the news presenters are attributing to " poor economic data " then surely there will be a lot more of this to come? median US incomes are now 6% less than 1990 incomes. Doesn't that tell you everything?

It tells ME that US incomes are 6% less than 1990 incomes!! But it doesn't tell me everything.

There may be a lot more to come on the positive side too, i.e., significant rises. The stock markets will always respond to hysteria and panic. Fundamentals don't drive the market, hysteria does. Sure, figures are published, and the index may vary a little as a consequence, but the big swings are caused by hysteria.

The Australian market is down 6.6 with an hour to the close. At one stage it was down 90+, following the US which dropped by 469, but the traders and institutions couldn't help themselves, good companies sold down with no rational reason, were too big a temptation, so they bought heavily, and bingo!! Up it goes, like it's attached to a bungee.

I'm invested for dividends, so it matters not a dot what the capital does. I have the same number of shares in only 11 of the top 20 companies in Australia, dividends will be the same (depend on profits, not share price), so I'll knock the top off a bottle of Cab Sav tonight, enjoy a couple of glasses whilst thinking that it would be nicer if the index was still 5960, not 5050, but when it's all said and done, who cares??

I think the west is just realizing that the figures China has been publishing for the past 10 years were rubbery at best, and downright deceptive and misleading at worst.

Edited by F4UCorsair
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The following is a statement by one economist that I follow. As a logical person(in my mind anyways) this makes sense to me.

We are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane that we entered in 2007, and we’re going into its trailing edge. It’s going to be much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009… The U.S. created trillions of dollars to fight the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. Most of those dollars are still sitting in the banking system and aren’t in the economy.”

So many regular folks and pundits generate opinions going forward. Some will be right and the majority will be wrong. Chasing markets based on some "expert's" opinion is a foolish game.

I do not chase markets in fact I have no money in the market because it is my humble belief that all markets are rigged. There is to much margin in the market(borrowed money) In all my years borrowed money does not make a market its reinvestment creating good jobs to buy things that in turn completes the circle(velocity of money). I do get a lot of newsletters from economists to see where they think I should put my money IF I had any. Again in my humble opinion there is not a "economist" worth his salt out there and thus I agree with your statement. They are all a bunch of paid hacks. Just last night I watched one on Faux news giving out the usual blurb. "Stay the course, buy on the dips, yes these corrections are gut wrenching and they happen every so often, all the usual clap trap. Somehow I think it is different this time and you cannot judge the present by historical actions.

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if the stock market can fall 469 points which the news presenters are attributing to " poor economic data " then surely there will be a lot more of this to come? median US incomes are now 6% less than 1990 incomes. Doesn't that tell you everything?

Yes it sure does. I was reading on MSN that over 50% of Canadians have less than $10,000 saved up for a rainy day. Do they give you a rainy day loan at the bank? They seem to for everything else.

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if the stock market can fall 469 points which the news presenters are attributing to " poor economic data " then surely there will be a lot more of this to come? median US incomes are now 6% less than 1990 incomes. Doesn't that tell you everything?

It tells ME that US incomes are 6% less than 1990 incomes!! But it doesn't tell me everything.

There may be a lot more to come on the positive side too, i.e., significant rises. The stock markets will always respond to hysteria and panic. Fundamentals don't drive the market, hysteria does. Sure, figures are published, and the index may vary a little as a consequence, but the big swings are caused by hysteria.

The Australian market is down 6.6 with an hour to the close. At one stage it was down 90+, following the US which dropped by 469, but the traders and institutions couldn't help themselves, good companies sold down with no rational reason, were too big a temptation, so they bought heavily, and bingo!! Up it goes, like it's attached to a bungee.

I'm invested for dividends, so it matters not a dot what the capital does. I have the same number of shares in only 11 of the top 20 companies in Australia, dividends will be the same (depend on profits, not share price), so I'll knock the top off a bottle of Cab Sav tonight, enjoy a couple of glasses whilst thinking that it would be nicer if the index was still 5960, not 5050, but when it's all said and done, who cares??

I think the west is just realizing that the figures China has been publishing for the past 10 years were rubbery at best, and downright deceptive and misleading at worst.

Maybe fundamentals could,would,should drive the market if all that Fed QE would have been invested in transportation infrastructure : ports, rails, bridges , and also manufacturing upgrades. Instead it all was channeled to sugar kool aid asset speculation all over the U.S. and emerging markets. I hope those hacks responsible for that greedy diversion lose it all.

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anyone here invested in SET?

I follow the markets both technically and fundamentally.

Technically SET in monthly looks to me quite weak. I am expecting a double bottom at 1230 in the coming days and lower. In 2008 SET halved and i have not even put data for 1997. While financial boom and bust cycles dont follow the same pattern always I would like to hear what others think abt the near term outlook for SET in the next 3-6 months.

post-243160-0-95111300-1441011441_thumb.

Edited by spaceman79
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I see a lot of posts on here from coupon clippers that say they care little if the market goes up or down that their dividends remain steady. Hmm this defies logic. I have followed companies in the past and when their markets/profits went south the dividend followed. Companies do not and cannot maintain dividends when their profits are falling as this is where their dividends come from. Some try for a period of time to keep up investor confidence but in the end they cut. They cut staff and operating expenses first but in the end the dividend is cut to preserve capital.

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if the stock market can fall 469 points which the news presenters are attributing to " poor economic data " then surely there will be a lot more of this to come? median US incomes are now 6% less than 1990 incomes. Doesn't that tell you everything?

Inflation adjusted mean US household income for 1990 was $50,994 and $51,939 for 2013. So an increase of 1.8% from 1990 to 2013. This sounds bad, but it does not account for decrease in house hold sizes (less get or stay married), more have entered low-income retirement (Baby Boomers), more employee benefits (health care), lower taxes, etc.

Don’t get me wrong though, most things point to a shrinking middle class, and most workers are not rewarded relative to GDP growth. This is a problem because the middle class are the consumers that are driving the economy, so a shrinking/struggling middle class will affect the economy negatively.

As for your decline, the median US household income peaked in 1999 at $56,080 and in 2007 it had a local maximum of $55,627, so perhaps you meant to compare it with one of those two years.

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if the stock market can fall 469 points which the news presenters are attributing to " poor economic data " then surely there will be a lot more of this to come? median US incomes are now 6% less than 1990 incomes. Doesn't that tell you everything?

Inflation adjusted mean US household income for 1990 was $50,994 and $51,939 for 2013. So an increase of 1.8% from 1990 to 2013. This sounds bad, but it does not account for decrease in house hold sizes (less get or stay married), more have entered low-income retirement (Baby Boomers), more employee benefits (health care), lower taxes, etc.

Don’t get me wrong though, most things point to a shrinking middle class, and most workers are not rewarded relative to GDP growth. This is a problem because the middle class are the consumers that are driving the economy, so a shrinking/struggling middle class will affect the economy negatively.

As for your decline, the median US household income peaked in 1999 at $56,080 and in 2007 it had a local maximum of $55,627, so perhaps you meant to compare it with one of those two years.

You can slice and dice this any way you want but in the end the middle class is getting the shaft while the rich are getting the gold mine and the government is helping them mine it.

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anyone here invested in SET?

I follow the markets both technically and fundamentally.

Technically SET in monthly looks to me quite weak. I am expecting a double bottom at 1230 in the coming days and lower. In 2008 SET halved and i have not even put data for 1997. While financial boom and bust cycles dont follow the same pattern always I would like to hear what others think abt the near term outlook for SET in the next 3-6 months.

Tech or fund analysis will mean zip, zero, nadda...when the unspeakable happens.

A 40 pecent clip off the SET in the weeks that follow.

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Investing in India since they changed the computation of the GDP or China in my opinion is like jumping in water that you can't see the rocks below the surface. No accurate information available.

How can you invest in non opaque closed societies that tell you down is up? Governments are like organ grinders or jugglers when it comes to GDP CPI or any other numbers. We are all joining the "Save Face" society.

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anyone here invested in SET?

I follow the markets both technically and fundamentally.

Technically SET in monthly looks to me quite weak. I am expecting a double bottom at 1230 in the coming days and lower. In 2008 SET halved and i have not even put data for 1997. While financial boom and bust cycles dont follow the same pattern always I would like to hear what others think abt the near term outlook for SET in the next 3-6 months.

Tech or fund analysis will mean zip, zero, nadda...when the unspeakable happens.

A 40 pecent clip off the SET in the weeks that follow.

Investors invest with either a feel good feeling or sell when full blown panic sets in. In my humble opinion we have been living in a market "Fools Paradise" If this keeps up banks will start doing margin calls on clients and that is when the schmidt really hits the fan and things get ugly. Again the market is running on debt being it people buying stocks on margin or companies buying back stock or paying dividends with "cheap" borrowed money. Its all about debt debt debt. This also includes we the people who run to banks to borrow money to buy all that useless crap we think we need in our "Keep Up With The Joneses" lifestyle. As my sainted grandmother used to say God bless her "A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted"

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I see a lot of posts on here from coupon clippers that say they care little if the market goes up or down that their dividends remain steady. Hmm this defies logic. I have followed companies in the past and when their markets/profits went south the dividend followed.

You conflate earnings with market valuation. The latter is set by Wall Street consensus and can be totally decoupled from the company’s actual numbers.

Mostly though, I think Wall Street gives too high valuations, but I’ve been invested in Apple Inc. for 10+ years so I have followed both their earnings and Wall Street’s valuation, and while Apple Inc. have shown consistent year-over-year growth, Wall Street are repeatedly pricing them as if their bankruptcy is imminent.

Right now Apple is paying about 2% dividend, their EPS last year was $6.45 with current share price of $107.72. This year their EPS is already $7.25 and we’re still waiting for earnings from another quarter.

The stock could drop by 50% and I wouldn’t worry, because their numbers are strong and their growth potential is far from exhausted, so I would expect to still receive the yearly dividend (which for me is more than 2% of what I put into Apple Inc., as my average acquisition price is significantly below their current price). Although I did buy the stock as a growth stock (before they were paying a dividend) and do hope that Wall Street will soon wake up and price this stock according to their potential :)

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if the stock market can fall 469 points which the news presenters are attributing to " poor economic data " then surely there will be a lot more of this to come? median US incomes are now 6% less than 1990 incomes. Doesn't that tell you everything?

It tells ME that US incomes are 6% less than 1990 incomes!! But it doesn't tell me everything.

There may be a lot more to come on the positive side too, i.e., significant rises. The stock markets will always respond to hysteria and panic. Fundamentals don't drive the market, hysteria does. Sure, figures are published, and the index may vary a little as a consequence, but the big swings are caused by hysteria.

The Australian market is down 6.6 with an hour to the close. At one stage it was down 90+, following the US which dropped by 469, but the traders and institutions couldn't help themselves, good companies sold down with no rational reason, were too big a temptation, so they bought heavily, and bingo!! Up it goes, like it's attached to a bungee.

I'm invested for dividends, so it matters not a dot what the capital does. I have the same number of shares in only 11 of the top 20 companies in Australia, dividends will be the same (depend on profits, not share price), so I'll knock the top off a bottle of Cab Sav tonight, enjoy a couple of glasses whilst thinking that it would be nicer if the index was still 5960, not 5050, but when it's all said and done, who cares??

I think the west is just realizing that the figures China has been publishing for the past 10 years were rubbery at best, and downright deceptive and misleading at worst.

" It tells ME that US incomes are 6% less than 1990 incomes!! But it doesn't tell me everything"

It told me everything about USA at least because 70% of America’s GDP is based on consumption and the accompanying statistics regarding how much Americans can potentially spend can only be described as dismal.

76% of Americans live from paycheck to paycheck. Fewer than one in four Americans have enough money in their savings account to cover just six months of expenses such as a job loss or medical emergency or other unexpected event. 50% have less than three months of expenses and 27% have absolutely no savings at all.sad.png

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if the stock market can fall 469 points which the news presenters are attributing to " poor economic data " then surely there will be a lot more of this to come? median US incomes are now 6% less than 1990 incomes. Doesn't that tell you everything?

Inflation adjusted mean US household income for 1990 was $50,994 and $51,939 for 2013. So an increase of 1.8% from 1990 to 2013. This sounds bad, but it does not account for decrease in house hold sizes (less get or stay married), more have entered low-income retirement (Baby Boomers), more employee benefits (health care), lower taxes, etc.

Don’t get me wrong though, most things point to a shrinking middle class, and most workers are not rewarded relative to GDP growth. This is a problem because the middle class are the consumers that are driving the economy, so a shrinking/struggling middle class will affect the economy negatively.

As for your decline, the median US household income peaked in 1999 at $56,080 and in 2007 it had a local maximum of $55,627, so perhaps you meant to compare it with one of those two years.

It’s not only the middle class which is shrinking. It is jobs for humans which are also shrinking due to robots automation and software. This is even happening in China supposedly a cheap labour country (a factory in China recently replaced 90% of its human workforce with robots and achieved a productivity increase of 125%) The MIT technology review did a study in 2000 when productivity was still rising robustly but employment suddenly started shrinking noticeably. By 2011 the gap became significant and they called it the great decoupling.

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if the stock market can fall 469 points which the news presenters are attributing to " poor economic data " then surely there will be a lot more of this to come? median US incomes are now 6% less than 1990 incomes. Doesn't that tell you everything?

Inflation adjusted mean US household income for 1990 was $50,994 and $51,939 for 2013. So an increase of 1.8% from 1990 to 2013. This sounds bad, but it does not account for decrease in house hold sizes (less get or stay married), more have entered low-income retirement (Baby Boomers), more employee benefits (health care), lower taxes, etc.

Don’t get me wrong though, most things point to a shrinking middle class, and most workers are not rewarded relative to GDP growth. This is a problem because the middle class are the consumers that are driving the economy, so a shrinking/struggling middle class will affect the economy negatively.

As for your decline, the median US household income peaked in 1999 at $56,080 and in 2007 it had a local maximum of $55,627, so perhaps you meant to compare it with one of those two years.

You can slice and dice this any way you want but in the end the middle class is getting the shaft while the rich are getting the gold mine and the government is helping them mine it.

Very much what Dr Sheldon said as she closed the Jackson Hole summit.

Judy Shelton, Ph.D. closed out the conservative Jackson Hole Summit this past weekend by offering a practical pathway to re-restore the U.S. dollar as a gold-backed currency without economic disruption by having the Fed pledge about 7 percent of America’s gold in Fort Knox as collateral to issue gold-convertible Treasury Bonds.

Dr. Shelton argued that by allowing the U.S. monetary system to be administered by a group of supposed experts, the policies they implement will better serve the interests of the experts than those of the American people. She believes Americans want their money to function as a useful tool for measuring value, not as the means through which government attempts to implement economic and social policy.This is especially true, if that social policy primarily benefits crony capitalists.

Shelton further argues that since 1970, the Federal Reserve’s central planning has resulted in 90 percent of Americans seeing no inflation-adjusted income growth, while the top 10 percent of Americans saw their inflation-adjusted income more than tripled. Many economists believe the reason the top 10 percent have benefited is because they have the resources to game the Fed’s monetary policies to maximize their own returns.

Article

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It’s not only the middle class which is shrinking. It is jobs for humans which are also shrinking due to robots automation and software. This is even happening in China supposedly a cheap labour country (a factory in China recently replaced 90% of its human workforce with robots and achieved a productivity increase of 125%) The MIT technology review did a study in 2000 when productivity was still rising robustly but employment suddenly started shrinking noticeably. By 2011 the gap became significant and they called it the great decoupling.

Assembly jobs are disappearing. But they moved away from the West long ago, and are only a fraction of the cost of most products. I believe that they are often seen as a transitional thing for a developing economy.

The big problem in the US is that they are not investing properly in education, so their manufacturing skills are lacking behind, and now China, Japan, Germany, and South Korea are taking these jobs.

Instead the money that should have been taxed and gone into common goods, goes to the elite who use them to buy politicians to make the economic environment even more favorable to their interests, and then gain passive income from the financial markets, furthering the inequality gap.

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Very much what Dr Sheldon said as she closed the Jackson Hole summit.

Judy Shelton, Ph.D. closed out the conservative Jackson Hole Summit this past weekend by offering a practical pathway to re-restore the U.S. dollar as a gold-backed currency without economic disruption by having the Fed pledge about 7 percent of America’s gold in Fort Knox as collateral to issue gold-convertible Treasury Bonds.

How about just raising taxes, and use the money on common goods like education and infrastructure?

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To answer the original question.

No we are not, some of us got out of China. I May have missed the current fall, but missed the previous years growth. Never the less they are overvalued by most company worth calculations.

"In every crisis there is opportunity" according to the Chinese proverb, and having cash available will I believe be beneficial in the not too distant future.

I would encourage everyone to read "Second Chance" by Robert Kiyosaki ( he of "rich dad poor dad" fame .... again a great read )

He predicted the last major crash, and had already forecast the next.

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anyone here invested in SET?

I follow the markets both technically and fundamentally.

Technically SET in monthly looks to me quite weak. I am expecting a double bottom at 1230 in the coming days and lower. In 2008 SET halved and i have not even put data for 1997. While financial boom and bust cycles dont follow the same pattern always I would like to hear what others think abt the near term outlook for SET in the next 3-6 months.

Tech or fund analysis will mean zip, zero, nadda...when the unspeakable happens.

A 40 pecent clip off the SET in the weeks that follow.

Investors invest with either a feel good feeling or sell when full blown panic sets in. In my humble opinion we have been living in a market "Fools Paradise" If this keeps up banks will start doing margin calls on clients and that is when the schmidt really hits the fan and things get ugly. Again the market is running on debt being it people buying stocks on margin or companies buying back stock or paying dividends with "cheap" borrowed money. Its all about debt debt debt. This also includes we the people who run to banks to borrow money to buy all that useless crap we think we need in our "Keep Up With The Joneses" lifestyle. As my sainted grandmother used to say God bless her "A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted"

Dividends are paid from earnings. In other words dividends are an investor's share of company profits. No profits = no dividends.

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I see a lot of posts on here from coupon clippers that say they care little if the market goes up or down that their dividends remain steady. Hmm this defies logic. I have followed companies in the past and when their markets/profits went south the dividend followed.

You conflate earnings with market valuation. The latter is set by Wall Street consensus and can be totally decoupled from the company’s actual numbers.

Mostly though, I think Wall Street gives too high valuations, but I’ve been invested in Apple Inc. for 10+ years so I have followed both their earnings and Wall Street’s valuation, and while Apple Inc. have shown consistent year-over-year growth, Wall Street are repeatedly pricing them as if their bankruptcy is imminent.

Right now Apple is paying about 2% dividend, their EPS last year was $6.45 with current share price of $107.72. This year their EPS is already $7.25 and we’re still waiting for earnings from another quarter.

The stock could drop by 50% and I wouldn’t worry, because their numbers are strong and their growth potential is far from exhausted, so I would expect to still receive the yearly dividend (which for me is more than 2% of what I put into Apple Inc., as my average acquisition price is significantly below their current price). Although I did buy the stock as a growth stock (before they were paying a dividend) and do hope that Wall Street will soon wake up and price this stock according to their potential :)

Apple also has approximately $200 billion in cash and that number continues to grow.

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It’s not only the middle class which is shrinking. It is jobs for humans which are also shrinking due to robots automation and software. This is even happening in China supposedly a cheap labour country (a factory in China recently replaced 90% of its human workforce with robots and achieved a productivity increase of 125%) The MIT technology review did a study in 2000 when productivity was still rising robustly but employment suddenly started shrinking noticeably. By 2011 the gap became significant and they called it the great decoupling.

Assembly jobs are disappearing. But they moved away from the West long ago, and are only a fraction of the cost of most products. I believe that they are often seen as a transitional thing for a developing economy.

The big problem in the US is that they are not investing properly in education, so their manufacturing skills are lacking behind, and now China, Japan, Germany, and South Korea are taking these jobs.

Instead the money that should have been taxed and gone into common goods, goes to the elite who use them to buy politicians to make the economic environment even more favorable to their interests, and then gain passive income from the financial markets, furthering the inequality gap.

" The number of U.S. residents who are struggling to survive on just $2 a day ohmy.png has more than doubled since 1996 "

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-surging-ranks-of-americas-ultrapoor/

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if the stock market can fall 469 points which the news presenters are attributing to " poor economic data " then surely there will be a lot more of this to come? median US incomes are now 6% less than 1990 incomes. Doesn't that tell you everything?

It tells ME that US incomes are 6% less than 1990 incomes!! But it doesn't tell me everything.

There may be a lot more to come on the positive side too, i.e., significant rises. The stock markets will always respond to hysteria and panic. Fundamentals don't drive the market, hysteria does. Sure, figures are published, and the index may vary a little as a consequence, but the big swings are caused by hysteria.

The Australian market is down 6.6 with an hour to the close. At one stage it was down 90+, following the US which dropped by 469, but the traders and institutions couldn't help themselves, good companies sold down with no rational reason, were too big a temptation, so they bought heavily, and bingo!! Up it goes, like it's attached to a bungee.

I'm invested for dividends, so it matters not a dot what the capital does. I have the same number of shares in only 11 of the top 20 companies in Australia, dividends will be the same (depend on profits, not share price), so I'll knock the top off a bottle of Cab Sav tonight, enjoy a couple of glasses whilst thinking that it would be nicer if the index was still 5960, not 5050, but when it's all said and done, who cares??

I think the west is just realizing that the figures China has been publishing for the past 10 years were rubbery at best, and downright deceptive and misleading at worst.

not trying to talk your strategy foul here but you can't really assume that in case there is a real bear market in the stock markets coming which would be fundamentally more than justified that your blue chip stocks could weather this with the same profits and dividend payments. You're diversified which is good and as long as you derive income from it all power to you but have you seen what can happen to share prices when they cut or cancel dividends? So you don't need to be nervous but at the same time are you far from saved.

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The DOW is about where it was a year ago and quite a bit up from 5 years ago. What's the big deal. China is crashing but that's not the topic is it?

you ask what's the big deal? don't you ever ask what is wrong with this picture? The DOW is quite a bit up from five years ago and yet one out of every six people in America still can't afford to eat without government assistance. They've now progressed to trading or selling these entitlements to raise cash which is illegal.where is the recovery?

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The DOW is about where it was a year ago and quite a bit up from 5 years ago. What's the big deal. China is crashing but that's not the topic is it?

you ask what's the big deal? don't you ever ask what is wrong with this picture? The DOW is quite a bit up from five years ago and yet one out of every six people in America still can't afford to eat without government assistance. They've now progressed to trading or selling these entitlements to raise cash which is illegal.where is the recovery?

They could always get a job. You do know that there are 10,000,000 illegal Mexicans working in the USA because the natives won't stoop to do the work?

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