China cuts interest rates again to spur economic growth

[LawrenceChee]

Now that the PM has announced a 6.5% growth it's good

It's the new norm and yes let's start closing those factories down which are very low end and TOP polluters

As I mentioned before , Myanmar Cambodia and Laos would welcome those industries but it would then mean the pollution gets closer to home as the Mekong flows downwards and we all know from past examples , there will be massive Govt corruption over these lucrative contracts and no protection set up to save costs

The western companies who started out adopted the same in China in the 80s and you can see the effects. At that time it was a poorer China who was ill prepared to see the effects of a badly negotiated deal and having shady officials who rubber stamped it

[Publicus]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-home-prices-rise-3-014119360.html

From the Reuters report above [China's home prices rose at their fastest clip in almost two years in February thanks to red-hot demand in big cities, but risks of overheating in some places combined with weak growth in smaller cities threaten to put more stress on an already slowing economy.

Average new home prices in 70 major cities climbed 3.6 percent in February from a year ago, quickening from January's 2.5 percent rise, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) on Friday.]

Oh, so China's economy is suppose to be collapsing ?? The boom in real estate prices in places like Beijing and Shanghai continues. There are still a vast number of people in China's vast rural interior who are trying to get into Beijing and Shanghai. China's economy will NOT collapse as long as the USA and the EU continue to import a mountain of manufactured goods from China. For anybody who has a condo in Beijing or Shanghai, did YOU sell it two or three months ago because YOU saw all the negative news about China ??

2016-03-18T014119Z_1_LYNXNPEC2H028_RTROPTP_3_CHINA-ECONOMY-HOUSING_original.jpg

<<photo of collapsed apartment building in China not allowed on this community>>

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=photo+china+collapsed+apartment+building&view=detailv2&id=1172D21EA5C29D2F7597731532F785727649136C&selectedindex=2&ccid=trepO0pC&simid=607989309286714841&thid=OIP.Mb6b7a93b4a42ab841c48e611ba15572dH0&mode=overlay&first=1

The allowed photo in the post is revealing simply at a glance. It is unoccupied, same as 63 million housing units in the CCP China at the present time. That's almost exactly equal to the entire population of Thailand. The empty value of empty dwellings is in the hundreds of billions of bucks. That's a serious drag on the economy, the banks -- the works.

There are several ways to identify an unoccupied residential tower in the CCP, and metro housing there is almost exclusively high rise units -- very high rise and too often very plopped over on its side, as in the prohibited but linked news photo.

Given 99 percent the CCP Chinese do not have clothes drying machines, they hang their machine washed laundry outside on the veranda to dry. One traveling a roadway can hardly see the occupied buildings because of the wall of drying clothes massed along the exterior of building after building. (99 percent don't have dishwashing machines either.)

The building in the above photo is obviously unoccupied even without the telltale wall of drying clothes obscuring it. Reality is that the unoccupied buildings are no better an investment than are the CCP equity markets.

PM Li Kejiang has the thankless migrane of being in charge of putting bodies in these units. He can't do it for numerous reasons, chief among them is the Houku system instituted by Mao to control the population, i.e., prevent its mobility from town to town, city to city, province to province. You relocate your residence, you can do it only by government permit.

The 260 million CCP Chinese who have on their own relocated from the countryside to the new urban centers without a Houku household permit have no access to any government services. None. It is a strict law. No Houku permit, no access to a school for the kids. No Houku permit, no access to a People's Love Hospital Number whatever, which is where all the doctors et al are. No Houku permit, then you're certainly not going to call the People's Safety Police to stop a burglar or a rapist cause you are the one who'll be nabbed, put on a truck and deposited in the middle of a distant crop field north by northwest.

260 million people constitute the population of the United States minus California and Texas. So that's the US population of 48 states. Or the whole of the population of Indonesia.

Given Li Kejiang is a failed real estate agent big time, perhaps after the fall he can get a job teaching bankruptcy at Trump University. He can probably get some good references from around here.

[Publicus]

Now that the PM has announced a 6.5% growth it's good

It's the new norm and yes let's start closing those factories down which are very low end and TOP polluters

As I mentioned before , Myanmar Cambodia and Laos would welcome those industries but it would then mean the pollution gets closer to home as the Mekong flows downwards and we all know from past examples , there will be massive Govt corruption over these lucrative contracts and no protection set up to save costs

The western companies who started out adopted the same in China in the 80s and you can see the effects. At that time it was a poorer China who was ill prepared to see the effects of a badly negotiated deal and having shady officials who rubber stamped it

Speaking of the bum deal, CCP has tens of thousands of Trumps, it's just that in the secrecy and closed world over there we don't hear or see 'em, much less on a daily basis. Very few Chinese see 'em or hear 'em either cause the sleazebag wheeler-dealer rulers keep out of daily sight and out of mind.

When this poster lived and worked in the CCP China he paid an outrageous yuan 5000 annually to get a government approved cable satellite system permit to connect it to his television, same as the True system here and its equivalent in other free countries (some more or less free than others). Foreign devils willing to part with bucks can do that, few CCP Chinese can however, and it's not just a matter of money. It is mind control.

In 2009 after Barack Obama had been elected he wuz on my China apartment tv all the time, daily, several times a day. My CCP Chinese regular visitors would cry out, "What Obama again!" The CCPs not being Republicans or rightwhingers, and accustomed to not ever seeing their own CCP secretive leaders, much less hear 'em speak, I simply told 'em in a democracy we demand to see our leaders, like 'em or not, so we can hear their bs directly and to hold 'em accountable no matter who they might be. No such thing in the CCP China where the leaders remain behind the high and thick walls of the CCP giant and sprawling government and housing compound Zhong Nan Hai in central Beijing, never to appear on tv except to kiss babies and smile a lot.

It's the swarm of CCP Trumps you can't see who can't scare you cause they are publicly invisible. They however permeate and they do scheme their crackpot schemes.

[LawrenceChee]

The above logic is non debatable ...in a country of 1.3 billion there are of course going to be Trumps , nut cases like the USA with the KK clans and NRA who believe their beliefs are the only correct ones

Thankfully due to the strict regulations these nut cases don't get a forum to exploit the feelings and stir up unnecessary emotions among the crowds ...we all know that Chinese when stirred is a rather uncontrollable force and we don't want school yard shootings or street riots daily to disrupt the normal flow of lives

There are nut cases everywhere ...my only question for Saturday is why some posters would only meet the worst of society ? Where are they hanging out ....

I have been doing business like many posters in China for a good amount of time and it seems the people I meet are positive , intelligent , family folks who are as normal as my next door neighbor in the moobaan here in Thailand

5000 yuan is equated to $480 USD ...you should have just used a VPN like millions in China.

[tonbridgebrit]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/china-fixes-yuan-three-month-043233584.html


From the above yahoo article [China's central bank fixed its currency exchange rate at a three-month high against the US dollar on Friday as the greenback sank. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) set the yuan at 6.4628 to $1.0, up 0.51 percent from the fix on Thursday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. It marked the strongest level for the central rate since December, as well as its biggest positive move since November.]


And below is a graph of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan.




Note that the rate has been steady since early January this year, and it's at 6.47 yuan per dollar right now. The yuan's weakest point was at 6.58, the yuan has become stronger since then. Yes, it was at 6.20 yuan per dollar last year, during July and before then.
Now, a drop from 6.20 to 6.47 yuan per dollar, and it has been seven months, well, the drop is hardly a collapse. By the way, the Britsh pound was at 1.57 dollars at August last year, it fell to 1.39 three weeks ago, the pound's drop has actually been greater than the yuan's drop.

So, basically, I'm trying to say that the media hysteria on the yuan's collapse is a bit silly. Why the hysteria ?

[tonbridgebrit]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/china-expected-see-538-billion-capital-exodus-2016-125600529--sector.html

Okay, the above article is from Reuters.
Quote [ Global investors are expected to pull $538 billion (£371.4 billion) out of China's slowing economy in 2016, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimated on Monday, although the pace of outflows has dropped.That number would be down a fifth from the $674 billion pulled out last year, the industry association said,]

Also, [Roughly $35 billion was pulled out in March, bringing the total since the start of the year to around $175 billion, well below the pace seen in the second half of 2015.]

Also, the dollar was at 6.20 yuan a year ago, and it is now at 6.50. It did go to about 6.60 in Jan.



Basically, to cut a long story short, any talk of the yuan crashing was a load of nonsense !

[tonbridgebrit]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/dan-loeb-just-saw-one-125615749.html

[We just saw 'one of the most catastrophic periods' for hedge funds in decades].

[The Chinese yuan didn't collapse, major momentum stocks like Amazon and Netflix declined, Valeant continued to crater, and the year's biggest pharmaceutical deal was called off.

But for Loeb, the story starts and ends with China, beginning on August 11, 2015 with the surprise devaluation of the yuan and ending with the yuan's bottom on February 15.

Third Point, like many hedge funds, was betting on a further devaluation of the yuan. And while that may well come, a number of other popular trades were pressuring the asset class while efforts to "de-risk" portfolios didn't accomplish what some perhaps hoped.]




The above are quotes from the article, by yahoo finance.
Basically, a load of speculators went and made big bets on the yuan collapsing against the dollar. And, the collapse has simply NOT taken place. A load of speculators have lost a bit of money.

Okay, be careful what you read and what you bet on. Placing a bet (or position) where the yuan is going to fall against the dollar IS risky !
There is NO easy money to be made, don't try to speculate, YOU will probably lose !!

[Naam]

exchange rate USD CNY today exactly as 5 years ago!

[ExpatOilWorker]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/dan-loeb-just-saw-one-125615749.html

[We just saw 'one of the most catastrophic periods' for hedge funds in decades].

[The Chinese yuan didn't collapse, major momentum stocks like Amazon and Netflix declined, Valeant continued to crater, and the year's biggest pharmaceutical deal was called off.

But for Loeb, the story starts and ends with China, beginning on August 11, 2015 with the surprise devaluation of the yuan and ending with the yuan's bottom on February 15.

Third Point, like many hedge funds, was betting on a further devaluation of the yuan. And while that may well come, a number of other popular trades were pressuring the asset class while efforts to "de-risk" portfolios didn't accomplish what some perhaps hoped.]

The above are quotes from the article, by yahoo finance.

Basically, a load of speculators went and made big bets on the yuan collapsing against the dollar. And, the collapse has simply NOT taken place. A load of speculators have lost a bit of money.

Okay, be careful what you read and what you bet on. Placing a bet (or position) where the yuan is going to fall against the dollar IS risky !

There is NO easy money to be made, don't try to speculate, YOU will probably lose !!

So why did some of the best minds in the financial industry get it wrong?

Strong trade data from China?

The Central Bank of China threw a lot of dollars at the Yuan?

The Fed delaying raising interest rate?

[Naam]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/dan-loeb-just-saw-one-125615749.html

[We just saw 'one of the most catastrophic periods' for hedge funds in decades].

[The Chinese yuan didn't collapse, major momentum stocks like Amazon and Netflix declined, Valeant continued to crater, and the year's biggest pharmaceutical deal was called off.

But for Loeb, the story starts and ends with China, beginning on August 11, 2015 with the surprise devaluation of the yuan and ending with the yuan's bottom on February 15.

Third Point, like many hedge funds, was betting on a further devaluation of the yuan. And while that may well come, a number of other popular trades were pressuring the asset class while efforts to "de-risk" portfolios didn't accomplish what some perhaps hoped.]

The above are quotes from the article, by yahoo finance.

Basically, a load of speculators went and made big bets on the yuan collapsing against the dollar. And, the collapse has simply NOT taken place. A load of speculators have lost a bit of money.

Okay, be careful what you read and what you bet on. Placing a bet (or position) where the yuan is going to fall against the dollar IS risky !

There is NO easy money to be made, don't try to speculate, YOU will probably lose !!

So why did some of the best minds in the financial industry get it wrong?

Strong trade data from China?

The Central Bank of China threw a lot of dollars at the Yuan?

The Fed delaying raising interest rate?

because they fell for the usual baseless China bashing which you can also find in this thread

[LawrenceChee]

Hahahahhahah that's a good one Naam ...

For those in the know ...China is now just like USA ...they are so intertwined they will not be allowed to fail , every country has in some ways small or big trade and financials tied to China like USA

Only the insane would want to see a meltdown of either country ...it will be too ugly

[Publicus]

Yuan is accurately in the range of weakness the Western banking and other investment houses said it would be during Q4 of 2015. Yuan will continue to exist weakly in the present range for the remainder of the year. Nobody I know has lost any bucks or is going to lose any bucks. Posters are of course free to post at will even if they will be off the wall to dig out something that is in fact nothing.

More interesting is what none of the CCP fanboyz ever bring up or want to discuss, which is the CCP's two-speed economy. One speed is the slow decrepit and collapsing state owned and operated corporations, while the other high speed private economy prospers and thrives. My connections in the CCP China, to include Hong Kong, are with the latter, i.e., the prosperous and greedy speed.

China’s Two-Speed Economy

Clumsy state-owned industrial firms stagnate as private companies race into the global market

China’s economic slow lane is choked with state-owned industrial firms in sectors linked to real estate—steel, cement, coal and construction equipment—all suffering from massive overcapacity. Many get by on bank loans, endlessly rolled over, and orders for boondoggle civil-works projects. They are zombies in a phantom economy.

Junkyard Dog -- Scrap-metal merchant Liu Junxia in a yard in the recession-battered northeastern steel town of Fushun, China, March 3. PHOTO: MARK LEONG FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Zipping along in the economic fast lane are private companies producing goods and services for a burgeoning consumer market that has taken over from manufacturing as the engine of China’s growth. These corporate leaders are mainly clustered in megacities along China’s eastern seaboard—Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing—linked to global networks of knowledge, finance and talent.

Lopsided growth in a nominally socialist country is an especially thorny problem. Deng Xiaoping resolved the issue by turning Marxism on its head: “Let some people get rich first,” he famously declared. But today’s Internet-empowered industrial workers won’t be treated as second-class citizens. Some hanker for a return to socialism. Others find solace in religions and cults that challenge Communist Party control. Widespread anger at wealth disparities could further sap the resolve of China’s leaders to press ahead with economic reforms—and might even encourage them to launch military adventures to deflect popular frustrations.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-two-speed-economy-1457110331

It's not necessarily or always what some people might want. It is what is in fact occurring and that which needs to be documented so that real people can sort things out for themselves as they read and consider. Living in reality is the most important need in dealing with the CCP China in any respect.

CCP is going to have to brace for the fallout of its state corporations failing or simply continuing to drag down the economy. CCP's worst nightmare is the social disorder or upheavel CCP itself is creating by its continuing policies and its inability to reform in the face of the profoundly vested interests that have developed over the past 20+ years.

Edited April 28, 2016 by Publicus

[boomerangutang]

Chinese Investors Left Reeling After Wealth Management Firm's Collapse

excerpt: Zhongjin is one of three Chinese financial firms to collapse in the past year. In February, Ezubao, a peer-to-peer lending company, was exposed as a $7 billion Ponzi scheme. Police took over the headquarters of the Fanya Metal Exchange, a trading platform for nonferrous metals, late in 2015 and are investigating an alleged multibillion dollar Ponzi scheme involving more than 200,000 investors.

Source: NPR (the article is also on audio)

[LawrenceChee]

Chinese Investors Left Reeling After Wealth Management Firm's Collapse

excerpt: Zhongjin is one of three Chinese financial firms to collapse in the past year. In February, Ezubao, a peer-to-peer lending company, was exposed as a $7 billion Ponzi scheme. Police took over the headquarters of the Fanya Metal Exchange, a trading platform for nonferrous metals, late in 2015 and are investigating an alleged multibillion dollar Ponzi scheme involving more than 200,000 investors.

Source: NPR (the article is also on audio)

Enron / Lehman / Subprime ....China is going through the same phase ...greed breeds this things ....

[Naam]

Chinese Investors Left Reeling After Wealth Management Firm's Collapse

excerpt: Zhongjin is one of three Chinese financial firms to collapse in the past year. In February, Ezubao, a peer-to-peer lending company, was exposed as a $7 billion Ponzi scheme. Police took over the headquarters of the Fanya Metal Exchange, a trading platform for nonferrous metals, late in 2015 and are investigating an alleged multibillion dollar Ponzi scheme involving more than 200,000 investors.

Source: NPR (the article is also on audio)

Enron / Lehman / Subprime ....China is going through the same phase ...greed breeds this things ....

not to forget The Right Honourable Sir Bernie Madoff, Esq. and his $65 billion fraud

[LawrenceChee]

Yeap scams exist everywhere and news like this is not limited to China

You get the Nigerians Lottery scans , in Thailand farangs who fall for the buafflo and motorbike accident scams ....people should have learnt

The only way to make a buck is to work for it

[Publicus]

Chinese Investors Left Reeling After Wealth Management Firm's Collapse

excerpt: Zhongjin is one of three Chinese financial firms to collapse in the past year. In February, Ezubao, a peer-to-peer lending company, was exposed as a $7 billion Ponzi scheme. Police took over the headquarters of the Fanya Metal Exchange, a trading platform for nonferrous metals, late in 2015 and are investigating an alleged multibillion dollar Ponzi scheme involving more than 200,000 investors.

Source: NPR (the article is also on audio)

Enron / Lehman / Subprime ....China is going through the same phase ...greed breeds this things ....

not to forget The Right Honourable Sir Bernie Madoff, Esq. and his $65 billion fraud

This is the natural order of things and the scale of it over there .....

China: $4 Trillion in Dirty Money Should Worry Us All

Global Financial Integrity’s new report on illicit financial flows from China showed some of the worst numbers that we’ve ever estimated. Crime, corruption, and tax evasion cost the world’s largest country and second-largest economy $3.79 trillion from 2000-2011. To make matters even darker, illicit capital flight is intensifying.

http://www.gfintegrity.org/press-release/china-4-trillion-in-dirty-money-should-worry-us-all/

Those were the numbers the last time anyone took a good close look. Capital flight last year hit $1 Trillion. In the CCP economy, the reserve reversal occurring in the forex accounts are big numbers too, which means what came in fast and easy goes out even faster.

Edited April 28, 2016 by Publicus

[boomerangutang]

another excerpt from the same NPR article:

"Shanghai now has more than 100,000 wealth management companies and the country has more than a million," says Iris Pang, a senior economist for greater China with a French investment bank.

Many Chinese investors who have been bilked say that: one big reason for the failings of investment firms is Chinese banks. Because banks are handling less money, they don't like the competition - for handling other peoples' money.

Yeap scams exist everywhere and news like this is not limited to China
You get the Nigerians Lottery scans , in Thailand farangs who fall for the buafflo and motorbike accident scams ....people should have learnt
The only way to make a buck is to work for it

LC, just because scams happen in other countries, doesn't lessen the gravity of it happening on such large scale in China. China is the world's 2nd biggest economy, so there's a lot of money involved. There's also mega amounts of money being clandestinely moved out of China each day. Even in small cities like Burma's Tachilek and northern Thailand's Chiang Rai (two towns I frequent), there are many fancy houses going up, and rumors abound that it's Chinese money - mostly rich Chinese who want a safety valve if/when shit hits the fan in China. These two small cities are just what I'm personally familiar with because I reside here. yet they're just the tiniest tip (may one five millionth) of the iceberg of Chinese money leaving China.

[LawrenceChee]

I am not defending that practices as I have seen first hand how it unfolded in USA and affected mainly normal families

What I am stating is it's unfortunate the same things happening in USA is now slowly unfolding out in China

The government has a chance to fix it as its not at the same level of secrecy like USA until the bubble burst and it was too late then

The good thing about being a communist government is they are in a position to fix it before the bubble burst ...and they have the powers to tell you how to fix it as they are still communist ...hoping this is right as banking is not my first subject matter of expertise and we can see many "experts" get it wrong all the time

I am hoping they would as there are many distracting issues for a government this big and while the USA is also running around in the SCS

The rich Chinese are smartly moving their money around and out...guys all over the world who has made their money hide it in tax havens ...we know the Chinese didn't invent most of tax fraud , offside accounts , Swiss banking , hiding money in backyards etc etc but the Chinese like everyone else is worried about money losing their value

Anyone in TVF would probably have multiple accounts in Thailand and their home country ...again nothing new we all hedged ourselves

[Naam]

LC, just because scams happen in other countries, doesn't lessen the gravity of it happening on such large scale in China. China is the world's 2nd biggest economy, so there's a lot of money involved. There's also mega amounts of money being clandestinely moved out of China each day. Even in small cities like Burma's Tachilek and northern Thailand's Chiang Rai (two towns I frequent), there are many fancy houses going up, and rumors abound that it's Chinese money - mostly rich Chinese who want a safety valve if/when shit hits the fan in China. These two small cities are just what I'm personally familiar with because I reside here. yet they're just the tiniest tip (may one five millionth) of the iceberg of Chinese money leaving China.

the assumption "if/when shit hits..." is arbitrary. one could also argue that the lion part of money flowing out of China is to avoid stiff (45%) income tax and risk spread by buying tangible assets such as immobile property. the latter not only in Tachilek and Chiang Rai but on a global scale.

[tonbridgebrit]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/dan-loeb-just-saw-one-125615749.html

[We just saw 'one of the most catastrophic periods' for hedge funds in decades].

[The Chinese yuan didn't collapse, major momentum stocks like Amazon and Netflix declined, Valeant continued to crater, and the year's biggest pharmaceutical deal was called off.

But for Loeb, the story starts and ends with China, beginning on August 11, 2015 with the surprise devaluation of the yuan and ending with the yuan's bottom on February 15.

Third Point, like many hedge funds, was betting on a further devaluation of the yuan. And while that may well come, a number of other popular trades were pressuring the asset class while efforts to "de-risk" portfolios didn't accomplish what some perhaps hoped.]

The above are quotes from the article, by yahoo finance.

Basically, a load of speculators went and made big bets on the yuan collapsing against the dollar. And, the collapse has simply NOT taken place. A load of speculators have lost a bit of money.

Okay, be careful what you read and what you bet on. Placing a bet (or position) where the yuan is going to fall against the dollar IS risky !

There is NO easy money to be made, don't try to speculate, YOU will probably lose !!

So why did some of the best minds in the financial industry get it wrong?

Strong trade data from China?

The Central Bank of China threw a lot of dollars at the Yuan?

The Fed delaying raising interest rate?

Hello Expatoilworker.

"So why did some of the best minds in the financial industry get it wrong?".

Well, you've got to remember that 'experts' who express their views on BBC Finance, Bloomberg, CNBC, etc, are usually people who are guests from whatever finance (hedge-fund) company. They're only saying what is their views. Off-course, NOT all hedge-funds and finance companies are betting the same way.

"The Central Bank of China threw a lot of dollars at the Yuan?"

Well, they have. But I think we have to accept that China has a big trade surplus (with America and the EU) and this big trade surplus means it's easier for the Chinese Central Bank to prevent a collapse of the yuan. Remember, at 6.50 yuan to a dollar, the yuan is still considered 'under-valued' by many people. 6.50 is the rate today.

Cynics claim the yuan should be at 5.0 per dollar, but China fixes it at 6.0 to 6.50 to make Chinese exports to America cheaper. The yuan crashing to 7.50 per dollar doesn't actually make sense, a cheap yuan becomes even cheaper. Hence, 7.50 yuan per dollar is unlikely, but there is still a slim chance.

"The Fed delaying raising interest rate?"

That, I'm not sure. America's economy is not actually strengthening that much. There was belief prior to Christmas (2015) that America would raise interest rates, and hence strengthen the dollar (and put pressure on the yuan and other currencies). But the latest news and economic indicators seem to suggest that the US economy is NOT actually growing strongly. Hence, chances of an increase in dollar interest rates are now lower, and so we're seeing a slightly weaker dollar. This makes it easier for the yuan to keep up with the dollar.

(please note, my views are only my views, if I actually knew what would be happening, I would bet my life-savings on whatever stuff, and make a fortune when the result comes out).

[Publicus]

I am not defending that practices as I have seen first hand how it unfolded in USA and affected mainly normal families

What I am stating is it's unfortunate the same things happening in USA is now slowly unfolding out in China

The government has a chance to fix it as its not at the same level of secrecy like USA until the bubble burst and it was too late then

The good thing about being a communist government is they are in a position to fix it before the bubble burst ...and they have the powers to tell you how to fix it as they are still communist ...hoping this is right as banking is not my first subject matter of expertise and we can see many "experts" get it wrong all the time

I am hoping they would as there are many distracting issues for a government this big and while the USA is also running around in the SCS

The rich Chinese are smartly moving their money around and out...guys all over the world who has made their money hide it in tax havens ...we know the Chinese didn't invent most of tax fraud , offside accounts , Swiss banking , hiding money in backyards etc etc but the Chinese like everyone else is worried about money losing their value

Anyone in TVF would probably have multiple accounts in Thailand and their home country ...again nothing new we all hedged ourselves

I am not defending that practices as I have seen first hand how it unfolded in USA and affected mainly normal families

What I am stating is it's unfortunate the same things happening in USA is now slowly unfolding out in China

Not the same. Radically different in fact. With radically different problems. US for instance does not have 63 million unoccupied housing units in existing cities or, much more significantly, in a number of unpopulated "new" ghost cities. Nothing like it in number, scale, nature or character.

The CCP command economy and the USA regulated economy are two different beasts. One economy is the global reserve currency while the other economy consists of behemoths grazing on quicksand. USD remains dominant by far as the global currency of trade. With the CCP economy staggering about and careening off walls no one has any faith or trust in it or in its monopoly game currency.

Worse for youse guyz the CCP myth is busted.

CCP Boyz throughout China revealed last year they are not masters of the universe who are in control of the Frankenstein economy they created. And anyone who believes CCP is using the economy to benefit the people of the People's Republic of China needs to see me cause I have a bridge in Brooklyn available cheap but for today only.

So youse guyz musn't delay.

Edited April 29, 2016 by Publicus

[boomerangutang]

I am not defending that practices as I have seen first hand how it unfolded in USA and affected mainly normal families

What I am stating is it's unfortunate the same things happening in USA is now slowly unfolding out in China

The government has a chance to fix it as its not at the same level of secrecy like USA until the bubble burst and it was too late then

The good thing about being a communist government is they are in a position to fix it before the bubble burst ...and they have the powers to tell you how to fix it as they are still communist ...hoping this is right as banking is not my first subject matter of expertise and we can see many "experts" get it wrong all the time

I am hoping they would as there are many distracting issues for a government this big and while the USA is also running around in the SCS

The rich Chinese are smartly moving their money around and out...guys all over the world who has made their money hide it in tax havens ...we know the Chinese didn't invent most of tax fraud , offside accounts , Swiss banking , hiding money in backyards etc etc but the Chinese like everyone else is worried about money losing their value

Anyone in TVF would probably have multiple accounts in Thailand and their home country ...again nothing new we all hedged ourselves

Generally, there is more secrecy in China, when large-scale things go bad. When a natural disaster hits, it's usually a farang news organization which first reports the problem. I assume it's similar for financial meltdowns.

Also, LC, you're so quick to semi-justify something bad happening in China, by immediately claiming the same sorts of things (or worse) happen in the US. That has some validity, but it's a tepid argument. That's like saying, "ok, WWII was bad, but so was WWI." ...as if to lessen the severity of WWII. The topic here is China's financial challenges.

For a long time, I've held a private hope that, when Beijing's iron grip loosens or breaks, Tibetans will have the opportunity to take their country back. It may not be realistic in lieu of multitudes of Han Chinese migrating there every week, but it's not impossible. China has a long history of tumult, with boundary lines changing often.

[Naam]

The topic here is China's financial challenges...

...and not Tibet

[LawrenceChee]

I am not defending that practices as I have seen first hand how it unfolded in USA and affected mainly normal families

What I am stating is it's unfortunate the same things happening in USA is now slowly unfolding out in China

The government has a chance to fix it as its not at the same level of secrecy like USA until the bubble burst and it was too late then

The good thing about being a communist government is they are in a position to fix it before the bubble burst ...and they have the powers to tell you how to fix it as they are still communist ...hoping this is right as banking is not my first subject matter of expertise and we can see many "experts" get it wrong all the time

I am hoping they would as there are many distracting issues for a government this big and while the USA is also running around in the SCS

The rich Chinese are smartly moving their money around and out...guys all over the world who has made their money hide it in tax havens ...we know the Chinese didn't invent most of tax fraud , offside accounts , Swiss banking , hiding money in backyards etc etc but the Chinese like everyone else is worried about money losing their value

Anyone in TVF would probably have multiple accounts in Thailand and their home country ...again nothing new we all hedged ourselves

Generally, there is more secrecy in China, when large-scale things go bad. When a natural disaster hits, it's usually a farang news organization which first reports the problem. I assume it's similar for financial meltdowns.

Also, LC, you're so quick to semi-justify something bad happening in China, by immediately claiming the same sorts of things (or worse) happen in the US. That has some validity, but it's a tepid argument. That's like saying, "ok, WWII was bad, but so was WWI." ...as if to lessen the severity of WWII. The topic here is China's financial challenges.

For a long time, I've held a private hope that, when Beijing's iron grip loosens or breaks, Tibetans will have the opportunity to take their country back. It may not be realistic in lieu of multitudes of Han Chinese migrating there every week, but it's not impossible. China has a long history of tumult, with boundary lines changing often.

They are communists right ? Secrecy is part of being communist. The open society of USA didn't prevent the collapse or the secrecy till it happen ?

I hate to compare but we are alway on this thread who has the better governance and why China can do better by some China bashers but the reality is the open society or "democratic" one didn't do much better so why should China emulate them ?

As for Comrade P comments that they should do better etc etc ...they are trying and they have not failed yet and the collapse has not happen yet ...so there is a clear distinction ...it has happened in USA and the failure happen but not in China yet

While some may wait gleefully and hope it happen , I am more pragmatic and hope it does not as it impacts the world when this happens

So you are right that the Chinese have to think through things and systems and cranks have to go to see who is responsible and what to do next ...so they are slower to admit to faults or publish something etc etc

[Publicus]

LC, just because scams happen in other countries, doesn't lessen the gravity of it happening on such large scale in China. China is the world's 2nd biggest economy, so there's a lot of money involved. There's also mega amounts of money being clandestinely moved out of China each day. Even in small cities like Burma's Tachilek and northern Thailand's Chiang Rai (two towns I frequent), there are many fancy houses going up, and rumors abound that it's Chinese money - mostly rich Chinese who want a safety valve if/when shit hits the fan in China. These two small cities are just what I'm personally familiar with because I reside here. yet they're just the tiniest tip (may one five millionth) of the iceberg of Chinese money leaving China.

the assumption "if/when shit hits..." is arbitrary. one could also argue that the lion part of money flowing out of China is to avoid stiff (45%) income tax and risk spread by buying tangible assets such as immobile property. the latter not only in Tachilek and Chiang Rai but on a global scale.

Private owners and entrepreneurs in the CCP China have their golden rule, which is to "Make it here and use it over there."

Make the bucks in CCP China then take the money and your family and run...to the West. The outflow of capital from CCP continued to increase in record amounts last year, so much of it private business people who've finally hit their bucks target and their financial goal...to at last escape the CCP and its closed world on the mainland.

Last year capital outflows hit $628 billion. However, after capital outflows hit $843 billion in January alone, this happened, as reported by

South China Morning Post in Hong Kong...

Sensitive financial data ‘missing’ from central bank report on capital flowing out of China’s slowing economy

Information on forex purchases missing from the People’s Bank of China’s list of financial figures as Beijing tries to stabilise the yuan exchange rate

Sensitive data is missing from a regular Chinese central bank report amid concerns about capital outflow as the economy slows and the yuan weakens

.

Financial analysts say the sudden lack of clear information makes it hard for markets to assess the scale of capital flows out of China as well as the central bank’s foreign exchange operations in the banking system.

China’s foreign exchange reserves shrank almost US$100 billion last month as the central bank sells dollars and buys renminbi to shore up the country’s weakening currency. It followed a record US$108 billion drop in December.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/1914007/sensitive-financial-data-missing-central-bank-report-capital

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/capital-flows

CCP forex reserves will also continue to disappear, both in real money and in record keeping. Very soon they will zoom past $3 Trillion heading straight on downward, toward $2 Trillion during 2016.

Edited April 29, 2016 by Publicus

[keemapoot]

Private owners and entrepreneurs in the CCP China have their golden rule, which is to "Make it here and use it over there."

Make the bucks in CCP China then take the money and your family and run...to the West. The outflow of capital from CCP continued to increase in record amounts last year, so much of it private business people who've finally hit their bucks target and their financial goal...to at last escape the CCP and its closed world on the mainland.

Last year capital outflows hit $628 billion. However, after capital outflows hit $843 billion in January alone, this happened

What you state about Chinese entrepreneurs is largely true, and I know lots of them, but what often happens is that they do establish residency abroad, educate their children abroad, but usually go back to China to continue to invest and prosper. The result is that there is a continual money and brain drain, but it is two ways, and my guess is that it evens out. I wonder if there have been any academic studies on this?

Moreover, many of their children, who keep fluency and cultural ties, are the new generation of returning immigrant legacy, as they make great candidates for multinational companies in their China expansion as they are multicultural, native multilingual, and western trained in business methods & corporate cultures.

So, I don't have any facts to refute the capital outflows figures you mentioned, but I would guess this is a more complex picture than you paint.

**BTW, the reason most of them have given me is simply: quality of life. The quality of life in the west is simply much better and that is the reason they chose to leave.

Edited April 29, 2016 by keemapoot

[Publicus]

Private owners and entrepreneurs in the CCP China have their golden rule, which is to "Make it here and use it over there."

Make the bucks in CCP China then take the money and your family and run...to the West. The outflow of capital from CCP continued to increase in record amounts last year, so much of it private business people who've finally hit their bucks target and their financial goal...to at last escape the CCP and its closed world on the mainland.

Last year capital outflows hit $628 billion. However, after capital outflows hit $843 billion in January alone, this happened

What you state about Chinese entrepreneurs is largely true, and I know lots of them, but what often happens is that they do establish residency abroad, educate their children abroad, but usually go back to China to continue to invest and prosper. The result is that there is a continual money and brain drain, but it is two ways, and my guess is that it evens out. I wonder if there have been any academic studies on this?

Moreover, many of their children, who keep fluency and cultural ties, are the new generation of returning immigrant legacy, as they make great candidates for multinational companies in their China expansion as they are multicultural, native multilingual, and western trained in business methods & corporate cultures.

So, I don't have any facts to refute the capital outflows figures you mentioned, but I would guess this is a more complex picture than you paint.

**BTW, the reason most of them have given me is simply: quality of life. The quality of life in the west is simply much better and that is the reason they chose to leave.

This is a principal reason 1 of every three CCP Chinese students studying abroad do not ever return to live or work in the CCP China

If you or anyone else finds any research that finds Chinese entrepreneurs who escape the CCP with their families and their fortune to live abroad, then have a brain wave to return to live and work their business back in the CCP, let us know.

No reason to doubt you know some "sea turtles" business types who become "overseas Chinese" and who do return ("Hai Gui). I don't know of any from the past to the present, but I haven't any doubt they exist to some extent. The extent does however sound like it is a limited one as there just isn't any major research on this I am aware of or have heard of. As I say, I don't know of a one of 'em.

You note "quality of life" is the major draw to the mainland CCP Chinese business types who take their families to live abroad and to ply their fortunes in a new land. The quality of life would of course include freedoms and liberties such as contained in the First Amendment in the US with the full Bill of Rights and similar basic rights as they exist throughout the West.

As had been noted by another poster to the thread, wealthy corporate types of the CCP do not relocate to Tibet or to Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Russia or any other shitholes places unless they are in the Party and they are ordered to do so. Given the choice, business people and their families finally and at long last fleeing the CCP go to the West.

Keep in mind the CCP's PRC is a vast and barren cultural wasteland that is politically desolate and socially moribund. Everything is bucks bucks bucks and only bucks. Oh, and absolute power and control.

And among those who do return to CCP from living abroad...

Almost all returnees experience culture shock upon their return to their homeland - as much as they did when they landed in the foreign land for the first time. Returning with high anticipation and enthusiasm, many have found themselves having difficulties adapting to their own homeland due to their overseas experience and unrealistic expectations. In some instances, highly trained and experienced overseas returnees have found themselves serving roles that are no better than a full-time interpreter - being treated by their homeland bosses like an overseas Chinese tour guide on the bosses' annual overseas trip. It is generally expected that returnees need two to three years to fully adapt to the Chinese market and systems, and five to ten years to fully realize their professional potential.

Moreover, CCP has a trade deficit of students returning to CCP from study abroad, a trade deficit of scientists and engineers fleeing CCP to live and work abroad,

It has been estimated that the loss of 200,000 trained science and technological personnel has cost China approximately $8 billion USD worth of public sector investment in their training. Each year, approximately 15% of graduates from the top Chinese Universities pursue further education in overseas universities, mainly in the U.S. and Europe.

What's more, you should know already that many if not most CCP "overseas Chinese" who return to the CCP get segregated in their housing, that there is a residence building exclusively for the sea turtles ("Hai Gui) after they have returned. After all, CCP can't afford to have people exposed to foreign devils loose in the land with all their exposure to subversive ideas. Not all overseas Chinese get this treatment, but it is a CCP policy and it is implemented. I know of it in Shenzhen.

http://www.chinasmack.com/2013/stories/why-are-overseas-chinese-students-not-returning-to-china.html

http://www.worldwideerc.org/Resources/MOBILITYarticles/Pages/0813Dodwell.aspx

Edited April 29, 2016 by Publicus

[boomerangutang]

This is a bit different, but in my adopted town of Chiang Rai, there are many businesses run by Chinese Thai. No surprise, as most (particularly large) businesses in Thailand are run by people with Chinese names. Same for most politicians in Thailand. The point I'm getting at, is more subtle: which segment of the Chinese residents (can I call them immigrants?) are most open to what a farang like myself may have to say?

Generally, they're not open at all. All is business business business. They're friendly, but in a perfunctory rote way. However, the one segment of Chinese-Thai folks that seem the most open, comparatively, are elder women. Not senile, but around 40 to 65. If younger, they're too constricted by cultural requirements to open up to farang. I'm basing this on unscientific personal observations. There's nothing romantically tinged in what I'm putting forth here. When I enter their shops, and there are no other men around (women act more self-restricted when their men are nearby), ....the women start asking me questions. It's not like bar-girl questions (hello, where you from? You want beer?), but instead deeper questions - sometimes about politics but more often about cultural issues. The impression I get is, when they're younger, all their focus must go into family and business. If there's a man around (husband, father, son, uncle, etc) the women know they're not supposed to project any curiosity toward a strange man, particularly a westerner. Yet, when they get past their salad years, they can relax a bit more and be themselves, and give air to their curiosity about the world outside of business and immediate family.

As for Chinese-Thai men, they're just about business. Secondarily, it's about family commitments. I've never heard a Chinese-Thai man mention anything that's not about business - but then I've never spent leisure time with one, so it's probably not a fair assessment.

[LawrenceChee]

Quality of life is fresh air and clean waters ....this liberation thing that Comrade P keeps talking about is comically nonsensical

Pretty much like most of us living in Thailand chose this place for how far the retirement dollar is stretching and the lifestyle ...I don't think we came here for any liberation from politics etc etc

Most Chinese businessman are so practical ...unless the government serves a function to aid their business further , they are not even keen to establish any ties or have any reviews on whatever policies is posted or printed

Edited April 29, 2016 by LawrenceChee