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Thai tourism: Another victim of the bomb? Perhaps not
Curtis S Chin
Special to The Nation

The remarkable resilience of the hospitality industry is facing its sternest challenge yet

BANGKOK: -- When Thailand's new deputy prime minister overseeing economic and foreign affairs, Somkid Jatusripitak, delivered his first major public policy address last week, the news was far from good.

Investigations had so far proven unsuccessful in finding who was behind the bombing at the Erawan Shrine, and the short-term economic consequences continue to be felt. More than 20 nations and territories have issued travel advisories or warnings for their citizens travelling to Thailand. Hotels, as well as tour operators, are reporting cancellations.

And now, the latest economic data has Thai exports shrinking for the seventh consecutive month. Overall exports from Thailand from January to July are now down 4.66 per cent. In June, the country had the worst monthly contraction since 2011 - a 7.87 per cent year-on-year decline.

Yet in this nation famously known for looking on the bright side, Somkid has declared that the economy is merely weak, not in crisis. This is to be no repeat of the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

Five years since violent street protests and the worst floods to hit Thailand in 50 years brought about dire predictions for the nation's tourism industry, the purveyors of economic doom are back. Pessimistic views compete with images from the nation's longstanding "Amazing Thailand" tourism promotions.

Worries continue about the impact of the bombing on the all important inward bound travel market. Chinese travellers now make up about a quarter of all foreign tourists in Thailand annually, with the Erawan Shrine and the surrounding shopping district a popular destination. More than 4 million visitors from China travelled to Thailand in the first six months of this year alone, and those numbers were expected to continue to rise.

In the immediate aftermath of the bomb attack, equities related to tourism, transport and distribution, given Thailand's key role as a regional logistics hub, were particularly hard hit. The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index experienced its worst one-day decline in more than a year. The baht also has fallen to six-year lows to the US dollar.

Responsible for about 10 per cent of Thailand's gross domestic product, the nation's vital tourism industry had been one of the few economic bright spots for Southeast Asia's second-largest economy. And yet amid the gloom and the near-term chill on Thailand's markets, one lesson from past crises in this Land of Smiles is that the Thai tourism sector will survive and once again thrive.

CEO Kevin Beauvais of GLOW Hotels & Resorts, with operations in Thailand and Malaysia and other properties under development in China, Vietnam and the Maldives, underscores this view.

"Thailand is amazingly resilient and still offers some of the best tourism values in the world," says Beauvais, who has lived and worked in Thailand through floods, political turmoil and a succession of governments. "In spite of Monday's [August 17] incident, Bangkok remains one of the safest cities in the world," he adds. "People will always come back for the sun, sand [and] sea."

Bouncing back

Tourism numbers in recent years support this view. Bangkok has continued along with London to take one of the top two spots in the MasterCard Global Destination Cities Index for the last five years. That index ranks 132 destination cities around the world in terms of total international overnight visitor arrivals and cross-border spending.

Bangkok's draw remained despite some of the worst street violence in Thailand's recent history.

In May 2010, large parts of Bangkok were paralysed by weeks of anti-government demonstrations. Rioting and violence spread, leading to the declaration of Bangkok's first night curfew in 15 years.

Thailand's largest shopping complex was set ablaze. A television station and the stock exchange, among others, were attacked. More than 70 people lost their lives.

Then, as now, dire warnings followed about the nation's tourism industry. Today, a gleaming new and expanded CentralWorld shopping mall complex has emerged from the embers as one of Bangkok's most visited destinations.

And, just a few months later, in October and November 2010, Thailand was hit by one of the worst calamities in five decades. Floods killed hundreds, inundated homes and factories, closed airports and roads, and stranded tourists and residents across the country. Dire predictions about the tourism sector also ensued as hotel occupancy rates plummeted and expenditures by visitors declined.

Few international visitors also may now remember that four years earlier, on December 31, 2006, during the New Year's countdown, bombings in Bangkok left at least 40 dead or injured.

So, what lies ahead for Thailand's enduring travel and tourism industry?

Dan Fraser, co-founder of Smiling Albino, a leading luxury adventure tour company in the Kingdom, says: "Bookings will take a very short-term hit, like the markets, but will bounce back. Thailand is resilient and has a history of bouncing back… so we don't expect anything more than a temporary blip."

Short of a sustained campaign of bombings, which would wreak havoc with any nation's tourism sector, Thailand will more than recover from the Erawan Shrine tragedy. That event is unlikely to have a long-lasting impact on the nation's still lacklustre economy or investor sentiment, already weighed down by Thailand's continued political uncertainties.

Other major travel destinations have withstood much worse attacks - including the resort island of Bali, the focus of bombings in 2002 and 2005, and New York in September 2001. The Erawan Shrine has reopened, vigilance is up, and the nearby Grand Hyatt Erawan Bangkok hotel, which experienced some minor damage in the Monday explosion, is in full operation at this time, says Hyatt area vice president and hotel general manager Gordon Fuller.

With exports continuing to contract, falling consumer sentiment, a drought-stricken agricultural sector and a persistent political divide, the resilience of the nation's tourism sector should be among the least of the worries facing Thailand's newly installed economic team.

Indeed, that so much focus has been placed on the Erawan Shrine bombing's possible impact on tourism is itself a testament to the sector's ability to bounce back. It has done so in the past, and will do so again.

Curtis S Chin, a former US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank, is managing director of advisory firm RiverPeak Group, LLC. Follow him on Twitter at @CurtisSChin.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Thai-tourism-Another-victim-of-the-bomb-Perhaps-no-30267822.html


-- The Nation 2015-09-01

[NongKhaiKid]

Oh Please, we all know NOTHING ever affects Thai tourism !

How do i know you ask, well TAT told me !!

[robertthebruce]

ever hopeful.....

[andytime]

Well perhaps they should have had a look 747 inbound from HK this week (Sat night) that carried a total of 45 passengers before making up more stories given their vested interests.

Perhaps TAT should organize a CLEAN UP THAILAND day. This will likely yield more long term benefits than their marketing campaigns and ignorance as to what is really happening.

Edited August 31, 2015 by andytime

[Thian]

Nothing ever damages Thai tourism, that's why they write so much about it.

[BSJ]

Do they get bottles of 'Optimism' delivered daily or is it piped in from a bulk source???

[NovaBlue05]

That bombing could have happened in any city in the world just as easily. Go down into the subway in Washington DC in the winter at rush hour. Hundreds of people in overcoats carrying backpacks and standing shoulder to shoulder. And if you have a real committed nutcase willing to take their own life, then it would be impossible to stop.

[lovelomsak]

That bombing could have happened in any city in the world just as easily. Go down into the subway in Washington DC in the winter at rush hour. Hundreds of people in overcoats carrying backpacks and standing shoulder to shoulder. And if you have a real committed nutcase willing to take their own life, then it would be impossible to stop.

Yes could happen anywhere. But it didnot happen anywhere it happened here in Bangkok.

Edited September 1, 2015 by lovelomsak

[mojorison]

The importance of tourism is a complete red herring. The only relevance being that many of those in power have stakes in tourist businesses and own land in tourist areas. Simple.

[ratcatcher]

Do they get bottles of 'Optimism' delivered daily or is it piped in from a bulk source???

No, someone at TAT merely presses a red button.

[Praematura]

Here in Jomtien there are about half of the busses parked on the streets below view talay 5. Clearly Chinese tourism has been affected. This article is propaganda.

[Prbkk]

There is an intetesting piece in today's BP ( print and online) by the security analyst who gave the talk last week about the Uighur connection. In it he argues that the second bomb might have been intended for Asiatique, but aborted. The impact of that would have been tremendous

[keemapoot]

There is an intetesting piece in today's BP ( print and online) by the security analyst who gave the talk last week about the Uighur connection. In it he argues that the second bomb might have been intended for Asiatique, but aborted. The impact of that would have been tremendous

Yes, that is an interesting theory that also fits with the Erawan Shrine as a target, thereby clearly showing the intended victims were mainly Chinese tourists:

popular with east Asian, and mainly Chinese, tourists

[Emster23]

"Tourism another victim of bomb... perhaps not". There are plenty of other possible reasons for tourism being down: world economy, trash everywhere, open season on tourist wallets, police who "serve and protect" themselves, insanely dangerous roads.... we could go on and on. Straw that broke the camels back?

[Shermanator]

People forget quickly. And nowadays it seems that a bomb blast is accepted as common and unpredictable "risk" you have to deal with when visiting any major city or bigger events...

Just look at 9/11 a day after people went HiSo shopping in the malls closeby just like nothing ever happened... which is, in a way, rather sickening.

[chilli42]

Delusional! Riots, bombing, coup, collapsing economy, tourist safety (murder, rape, scams). What other country in Asia has this all at one brief moment in time. There are many other attractive places to go. Why come here? Sure if the problems can be righted but Thailand has already gained momentum on that slippery slope, hard to see how they can put the brakes on now much less get back to where they were

[tonbridgebrit]

Thailand, don't worry about it.

The flood of Chinese tourists will be back. Pattaya's roads will be packed full of them coaches and buses carrying Chinese tourists, we all know that.

[Srikcir]

Whether tourism is affected or not is really irrelevant in the larger picture of the economy.

Historically, tourism accounted for only 10% of the GDP with the balance being 70% exports and 20% government spending. Prior to Somkid's appointment it was the government's plan that tourism would now account for 80% of GDP growth - essentially turning all of Thailand into a Costa Del Sol , French Riveria, or Waikiki Beach.

Already "domestic tourism for the second half of the year will not be brisk as earlier predicted and revenue for the whole year is likely to fall short of the 800 billion baht target by up to 300 billion baht" - Yutthachai Sunthornrattanavech, president of Domestic Tourism Business Association.

Somkid's doesn't see tourism as essential to Thailand's economic recovery - "first priority is to inject money into the system, focusing on the grassroots and small and medium-sized enterprises in the next three months." That is a realistic approach.

But it's not a realistic timetable to be a meaningful solution for economic recovery. Furthermore, this kind of government low-tier stimulus does not in the face of historical levels of household debt create greater domestic and foreign consumption.

Somkid must use a macro economic approach instead of micro economics preferred by Devakula to regenerate the economy. But if Prayut sees his regime as having a limited life, Somkid's economic policies will be confined to an economic "monkey cheek."

Edited September 1, 2015 by Srikcir