Thai Baht - The Perfect Model

[Naam]

Children, listen....

2+2=4

3+3=6

Are you writing this down.....?

Can you repeat the first one again?

This is hard stuff to remember!

Haha, thanks mr Oilworker, I thought i might add something more demanding on your brain cells after reading the OP...

Here goes...

2+2=?..........anyone?

1.9999 ?

[ExpatOilWorker]

Children, listen....

2+2=4

3+3=6

Are you writing this down.....?

Can you repeat the first one again?

This is hard stuff to remember!

Haha, thanks mr Oilworker, I thought i might add something more demanding on your brain cells after reading the OP...

Here goes...

2+2=?..........anyone?

What happen to 1+1? How did you arrive at 2? Did you use iterations, integrals, algebra, a Lorenz map or infinite Fourier series? It is all chaos theory to me.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Children, listen....

2+2=4

3+3=6

Are you writing this down.....?

Can you repeat the first one again?

This is hard stuff to remember!

Haha, thanks mr Oilworker, I thought i might add something more demanding on your brain cells after reading the OP...

Here goes...

2+2=?..........anyone?

1.9999 ?

I think you are getting close to half the answer. You can actually prove that 1.9999999999999(infinite 9's) = 2 Not just close to 2, but rock solid "=" 2.

Edited September 9, 2015 by ExpatOilWorker

[sandyf]

Only fully convertible currencies, about 40 percent of currencies, are freely traded and subject to market forces.

Partially convertible currencies can only be traded with government approval and non convertible are not traded.

It is not that long ago that the SBV issued a warning to brokers over trading the VND without approval.

The Yuan is unique in that it is partially convertible as CNY onshore and fully convertible as CNH offshore.

Although there are currency regulations in place,as far as I am aware the Thai Baht is a fully convertible currency.

THB is not fully convertible, BOT continues to place restrictions on its export and the amount that foreign banks can hold.

You may well be right. I have never seen a definitive source, only conflicting references to the convertibility.

here's your definitive source (my bank in SG):

Dear Client,

Thai Baht Currency Restrictions

Further to the Bank of Thailand’s Measure No. 33/2003 (Additional Measure to Prevent Thai Baht Speculation), which came into effect in October 2003, XYZ Bank, Singapore Branch is subject to restrictions affecting its holdings of Thai Baht currency. These include the following:

Maintaining THB accounts in Thailand for settlement purposes only, where settlement means the settlement of securities transactions and cash payment transactions. The exception is for deposits of a tenor of at least 6 months or more.

Forfeiture of credit interest on its accounts (other than deposits of a tenor of at least 6 months or more)

Ensuring that the aggregated end of day balances for cash accounts with all financial institutions in Thailand do not exceed THB 300 million (the “Daily THB Limit”)

Imposition of deposit charge on THB account balances.

In relation to the Daily THB Limit, XYZ Bank, Singapore Branch will be required to adjust its Thai Baht balances in all its client accounts to be compliant with the permitted level as determined by the Thai authorities on a daily basis. As such accounts may include balances in Thai Baht held on your behalf, it is critical that we are able to adjust client THB balances to ensure compliance.

Accordingly, at any time that you are holding a long position in THB, we reserve the right in our absolute discretion and without prior notice to you to convert your holding of THB, in whole or part, into United States dollars at the prevailing spot rate.

Yours truly,

XYZ Bank, Singapore Branch

Not disputing your reference and this is why I mentioned conflicting references. The following is from an HSBC report in 2012.

"THB is fully convertible and has a relatively liquid spot market. Foreign exchange forward transactions executed with onshore banks must have legitimate underlying business in Thailand with supporting documentary evidence (e.g. an invoice or loan agreement)."

Report on emerging market currencies.

Obviously differing views on full convertibility.

[chiang mai]

An interesting document, it starts off on page 59 by stating that THB is fully convertible and then spends the next three pages describing what you're not allowed to do with it!

[Naam]

Not disputing your reference and this is why I mentioned conflicting references. The following is from an HSBC report in 2012.

"THB is fully convertible and has a relatively liquid spot market. Foreign exchange forward transactions executed with onshore banks must have legitimate underlying business in Thailand with supporting documentary evidence (e.g. an invoice or loan agreement)."

Report on emerging market currencies.

Obviously differing views on full convertibility.

the difference is that full convertibility is subject to the conditions/restrictions mentioned by HSBC and my bank.

in my [not so] humble view any restriction (e.g. forwards) negates full convertibility.

[SheungWan]

Well done OP.

[sandyf]

THAILAND: Given the recent sharp declines in the Thai baht vs the USD and the

likelihood of Fed lift-off soon, BOA Merrill Lynch strategists look at the

prospects of "sharp and disruptive capital outflows from Thailand" going

forward. "Our conclusions point to the possibility of tangible capital outflows

from a continued foreign sell - down of Thai stocks, more Thai investments

abroad given the limited investment opportunities in Thailand, and regulatory

changes that not only allow but encourage Thais to diversify their portfolio

investments abroad," they say. At the same time however, "Thailand's large

current account surplus (equaling 5% of GDP this year) and sizeable foreign

reserves provide ample buffers to minimize the likelihood that such unexpected

events could undermine the resilience of the Thai economy," they say. Overall,

they do not find any "apparent vulnerability that would trigger unmanageable

capital outflows from Thailand." USDTHB holds near Thb36.12, on the high side of

a Thb35.937/36.149 range. The pair topped out yesterday at Thb36.230, the

highest level seen since March 2009 (Thb36.438 March 2, 2009).

[richard10365]

About tourism, it's made up by domestic and international tourist. The direct impact to Thailand's GDP (373.5 billion dollars) from tourism in 2014 was about 8.54% (31.9 billion dollars). However, the indirect impact to the GDP from tourism was 19.27% (72.2 billion dollars). This data estimate is from the World Travel and Tourism Council.

Edited September 13, 2015 by richard10365