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Growth should outstrip BOT forecast, says Apisak
ERICH PARPART
THE NATION



BANGKOK: -- FINANCE MINISTER Apisak Tantivorawong yesterday expressed optimism that the economy would outpace the Bank of Thailand's expectations thanks to strong tailwinds from the government's mega investment in infrastructure and the reforms that aim to lay a firm foundation for the future.

"It will be more than the central bank's predictions because of the expected increase in government spending on infrastructure projects, and the economic reform efforts should be able to help with the expansion of the economy next year," he told the press at an economic seminar arranged by the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

The central bank last week took a dimmer view of growth prospects, cutting its forecasts for increases in gross domestic product for this year from 3.0 per cent to 2.7 per cent and next year from 4.1 per cent to 3.7 per cent because of the slower-than-expected global economic recovery.

It cited further weakness in China's and other Asian economies, the impact of the midyear drought and the steeper-than-expected slide in global oil prices.

The Thai economy is now facing various risk factors such as the expected lift-off of US interest rates, which will affect capital flows, and the slowdown in China. However, China's GDP will still be able to expand by about 7 per cent annually for five to 10 years.

"The 7-per-cent expansion in China will contribute to the expansion of the Thai economy, but Thailand's economic expansion should not only depend on exports.

"The current government's policy is to support the domestic economy together with exports," Apisak said.

The new Economic Cabinet has already introduced stimulus measures to support low-income earners and small and medium enterprises.

The government will continue to accelerate its spending on infrastructure development.

It is trying to attract more foreign direct investment here via both tax and non-tax incentives and the effort to improve the ease of doing business. This will amplify the country's economic potential.

"What the government will do is integration. All government agencies will need to get in touch with investors and improve the process so that it can be more convenient by amending regulations.

"We hope that the World Bank will continue to raise our ranking next year from the reform efforts," he said.

Thailand's ranking in the World Bank's "Doing Business" report has improved from No 28 out of 189 countries in 2014 to No 26 this year.

Apisak also played down speculation that his ministry plans to dump its PTT, Thai Airways and TMB Bank stakes because of disappointing profits and the time it's taking to set up an infrastructure fund.

However, he refused to comment on the fund's limit and targeted rate of return.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Growth-should-outstrip-BOT-forecast-says-Apisak-30269739.html


-- The Nation 2015-09-29

[soalbundy]

The EXPECTED government increase in spending on infrastructure. China isn't growing 7% a year some financial investgaters put it at 4 to 5% after looking at rail freight numbers and electricity use. Still, if you cant have a dream, if you cant have dream, how you gonna have a dream come true, bubi do do bubi do do.

[clockman]

With no transparency, how can anybody predict. You may as well go to the fortune teller!

[wonder6281]

Yeah well the Baht just got battered. There goes that assumption!

[ChrisY1]

With no transparency, how can anybody predict. You may as well go to the fortune teller!

They did!!..

[anon467848]

A Mark Twain saying comes to mind whenever the Thai spin doctors try to pull the wool over the gullible Thais eyes, with regards to the economy, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

[Joe Brennan]

"expressed optimism"

Ah yes, "expressed optimism". The old stand-by. Old but inane.

[Srikcir]

The central bank's predictions are actually optimisitic!

For example:

- export and import value in terms of Thai baht dropped in August by 0.65% and 2.71%, respectively.

- export eight-month contraction was 2.90% and 6.19%, respectively.

- export shipment value fell by 6.69% in August from the same period last year.

- the direct spillover impacts from China’s economic slowdown could cut Thailand’s growth rate by 0.2%

- retail sales improved over a year earlier but still held in negative territory by mounting household debt, drought, flat private investment, and feeble consumer spending

- Thai Industries Sentiment Index for the month of August dropped for the eighth month in a row mainly due to domestic consumption contraction, particularly among farmers, and general concern over sluggish economy

The Prayut regime doesn't need cheerleaders. It needs economic accomplishments. Even Somkid is looking beyond 2016 for any kind of significant economic recovery.

[laocowboy2]

My money is on the BoT

[Redline]

I'm getting an online degree too!

[Praematura]

I agree with what you all have said. China is not going to have 7% growth rate so I question the op credibility (as if he had any.)

I would love to ask where they expect export growth since commodities are taking a beating. Look at Glencore stock price today. Thailand is in for a very rough ride.

Manufacturing? They still make hard drives here which is an old technology. My wife's cousin works in the planning department at Mitsubishi Thailand in Sriracha. She said they don't expect bonuses this year as orders are way down and they decided to build new facilities in Malaysia rather than Thailand. I think it's realistic to see manufacturing also move outside of Thailand, so again is like to see where exactly export growth is coming from.

[SantiSuk]

Yes, it should ..........

[PeVee1st]

5555555. Another joke??? Where are the facts????