Thai exports in dire straits unless govt joins TPP, trade experts warn

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Thai exports in dire straits unless govt joins TPP, trade experts warn
PETCHANET PRATRUANGKRAI
THE NATION


Duanden Nikomboriraks, research director at the TDRI

BANGKOK: -- EVEN THOUGH the recently agreed Trans-Pacific Partnership will not come into force until it is ratified by its member states, Thailand will immediately lose export orders and see its competitiveness decline next year, a seminar heard, and foreign direct investment will be the next casualty.

To reduce the impacts from a delay in joining the pact, the country needs to declare clearly its intention to join it eventually in order to preserve the confidence of traders and investors, while spending the 12 TPP members' ratification period to study the pact, participants said.

At a Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) seminar on the deal, Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said private enterprises were deeply worried that the Thai export sector would lose out before the TPP's implementation, as foreign buyers shift to TPP members, especially Vietnam and Malaysia.

In the long term, key foreign interests, mainly American and Japanese, will invest in other TPP countries. Thai industries that will certainly lose out are garments and electronics, he claimed. Raw-material export will also be affected.

Nopporn said that amid global liberalisation, inevitably Thailand could not refuse to join the world's largest free-trade bloc.

"The country should not hesitate to join the pact over worries about losses, as nobody always wins with trade liberalisation. Thailand needs to accept both the benefits and challenges, then prepare and find remedies for each sector," he said.

Sluggish for three years

Duanden Nikomboriraks, research director at the TDRI, claimed the TPP would cause Thai exports, which have already been sluggish for three years, to slow even further. Exports by trade competitors, mainly Malaysia and Vietnam, to fellow TPP members will enjoy strong growth, while Thailand's grow only slightly.

A TDRI study found that the 12 TPP members accounted for 40 per cent of Thailand's trading value, and 10 per cent of this was with three countries - the United States, Canada and Mexico - with which Thailand has no free-trade agreement. As well, the TPP states account for 45 per cent of the value of foreign direct investment into the Kingdom.

Export products that will be hurt by high tariffs levied by the US are garments and clothes, tuna, electrical appliances, vegetables and fruits, textiles, food preparations, footwear, and rubber gloves.

Vietnam will gain significantly in the export sector, as it has similar products to Thailand. These are agricultural goods, textiles and garments, footwear, and automotive parts.

Duanden said investment in the service sector would also be affected as the TPP includes an investment protection agreement favouring its members. To lessen the impact from putting off joining the TPP, Duanden suggested that Thailand accelerate negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and resume bilateral talks with the European Union.

Some industries may need to relocate to other TPP countries and benefit from other FTAs.

She said the government should also closely study the impact on important sectors, mainly from prolonged drug patents and rigid copyright enforcement.

Kannikar Kijtiwatchakul, FTA Watch coordinator, said that since Thailand was still led by an interim military regime, it could not yet join the TPP, but needed to spend this time to study the pact's impact in all dimensions as well as find remedies for some concerned sectors.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Thai-exports-in-dire-straits-unless-govt-joins-TPP-30270749.html


-- The Nation 2015-10-13

[phuketandsee]

It's going to take a great deal more than the TPP to save the Thai economy.

[terryp]

if thailand is stupid enough (yes they are) to join this first step of Agenda 21 then they might as well shut down the country ..it will destroy trade.

expats here will be falling over themselves to get out of the place as daily life will change dramatically... I could go on but PLEASE spend 30 minutes today reserching the TPP (what you can actually find out about this secret agenda)

then look at TTIP and TSIA... this is the NWO one world everything ...as i say its all into the UN AGENDA 21; 192 Countrys AGREED and signed up to it in 1992 and now its full on to implement it

this is scary stuff

[lovelomsak]

The Thai government cannot join the TPP Seems they arenot wanted. Make your bed and sleep in it..

[Eric Loh]

With China championing the alternate to TPP in the form of RCEP, Thailand government may be arm twisted to ignore TPP and join the RCEP. This a major lose for the country in terms of trading opportunities with 12 dynamic economies.

[Usernames]

In the long term, key foreign interests, mainly American and Japanese, will invest in other TPP countries. Thai industries that will certainly lose out are garments and electronics, he claimed. Raw-material export will also be affected.

But Thailand doesn't need the US. It has China, Russia, and North Korea.

[soalbundy]

Thailand cant join,they have to learn to love each other first, should take another 100 years or so.

[Srikcir]

It behooves Thailand to join every trade partnership it can. Its trade partnerships with Russia and China last year did little to help its economy. But with USA, Mexico and Canada in the partnership, it is necessary for Thailand not to lose any advantages to Vietnam and Malaysia, ie., capital infusion.

[JimHuaHin]

TPP is bad bad bad, for everyone except US big business.

See Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University on the topic ... http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-secret-corporate-takeover-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-05

[chainarong]

Thailand was never invited because as the name states Pacific , unless Thailand has moved in the past week, it won't be invited , the countries that are signatories are only Pacific related ones in some form or another .

[KamalaRider]

It's going to take a great deal more than the TPP to save the Thai economy.

But it would be a HUGE step forward.

[Thian]

Why don't they lower the baht to 50 for a euro to start with?

Yes imported goods will cost more so Thai will use more local goods which is good for their economy.

Export will thrive from that as well, tourism will come back (quality tourists who stay 3 weeks) , investment might come back if they give farang more rights and fair treatment.

[Usernames]

It behooves Thailand to join every trade partnership it can. Its trade partnerships with Russia and China last year did little to help its economy. But with USA, Mexico and Canada in the partnership, it is necessary for Thailand not to lose any advantages to Vietnam and Malaysia, ie., capital infusion.

That ship has sailed. Thailand is out. Vietnam and Malaysia are in. But don't worry, China will solve everything for Thailand.

[Thai at Heart]

Why don't they lower the baht to 50 for a euro to start with?

Yes imported goods will cost more so Thai will use more local goods which is good for their economy.

Export will thrive from that as well, tourism will come back (quality tourists who stay 3 weeks) , investment might come back if they give farang more rights and fair treatment.

What would they have to do to do this, oh professor........

Oh, and which local oil field are they going to find to use all that local fuel from that they don't have...

Edited October 13, 2015 by Thai at Heart

[elgordo38]

TPP is bad bad bad, for everyone except US big business.

See Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University on the topic ... http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-secret-corporate-takeover-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-05

Finally somebody shining a light on the real problem of these trade deals. Look at NAFTA. All good jobs shifted from America and Canada to Mexico. Did it increase the quality of life and pay increases for Mexicans? Nada. Their still dirt poor and angry much like the citizens of another country near and dear to our hearts. The reason that these negotiations are so secret is so that ordinary citizens cannot see how big business is screwing them over running to cheap labor countries with questionable environmental practices. Its all about Greed and cheap labor. In time through robotics and 3D printing these jobs will return to Western shores. By that time the workers there will be so full of paranoia they will perform in a rather robotic fashion as well and will accept the wages that BB dictates they are worth. The Republicans will by then have reduced the size of government to a shadow of its former self. They will have dried up all welfare payments and forced these people into low paying jobs and will have cut taxes for the rich to next to nothing. They will also have taken away women's rights over their bodies so that there will be an endless supply of young cheap labor to replace the increased numbers of sick and dying. They will have a ticker tape parade down main street in New York with the Koch Bros. and their ilk as parade marshals sitting in the limo's tossing pennies to the shouting crowd. After all pennies will be worthless by then. All transactions will be electronic anyways by then so that the underground economy dies and the Fed can easier print edollars out of thin air and keep track of you and your money. 2084 sounds to far in the future how about 2035

Edited October 13, 2015 by elgordo38

[Jonmarleesco]

Thailand was never invited because as the name states Pacific , unless Thailand has moved in the past week, it won't be invited , the countries that are signatories are only Pacific related ones in some form or another .

The same could be pedantically argued about Malaysia. All that separates Thailand from the Pacific is the South China Sea, hardly an obstacle to its joining the TPP. The true agenda of the TPP, on the other hand, is.

[waza]

the TPP and all free trade agreements take power from the people and give it to corporations, puts profit above individual rights and facilitates corporate takeover of all profitable businesses. Local laws must be amended to comply with US and Japanese standards and corporate desires. Stick to the Kings sustainable subsistence lifestyle that doesn't rely on exports and foreign investment.

[bangkapi]

TPP = One world government. Big win for globalist fiat currency ponzi-scheme bankers. Just wait and see.

[sgtsabai]

There are lies and then there are damn lies. Anything and everything about TPP is a damned lie when it comes from government and "trade" organizations. There is little about trade in this corporate coup, soon to be coupled with the other secret corporate coups in progress. Please read:

https://wikileaks.org/tpp-ip3/press.html

http://ourfuture.org/20151006/tpp-deal-reached-here-it-comes

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/09/wikileaks-releases-tpp-intellectual-property-rights-chapter

http://www.thenation.com/article/tpp-prioritizes-rights-of-corporations-over-workers-the-environment-and-democracy/?print=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-trans-pacific-partnership-charade-tpp-isnt-about-free-trade-at-all-2015-10-05/print

I've got much, much more, contact if you want. TPP and the other secret corporate deals will spell the death knell of what is left of the working/middle class in not only America but all those that sign on. Medicine prices will rise to the extent it will cause a rise in deaths, think US prices in Thailand etc. The internet will be censored, ahem forget those P2P movies you get off torrents. Those that are not working poor yet, will be.

[Thian]

Why don't they lower the baht to 50 for a euro to start with?

Yes imported goods will cost more so Thai will use more local goods which is good for their economy.

Export will thrive from that as well, tourism will come back (quality tourists who stay 3 weeks) , investment might come back if they give farang more rights and fair treatment.

What would they have to do to do this, oh professor........

Oh, and which local oil field are they going to find to use all that local fuel from that they don't have...

They can just print more Baht and throw them out of a helicopter.

Oil they can buy in chinese currency, that was the plan allready. And oil is still cheap anyway.

Without export/tourism it's a downward spiral, Thailand is just too expensive in everything.

[Robbie Dye]

As usual let Rome burn!!

[swissie]

TPP is bad bad bad, for everyone except US big business.

See Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University on the topic ... http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-secret-corporate-takeover-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-05

Finally somebody shining a light on the real problem of these trade deals. Look at NAFTA. All good jobs shifted from America and Canada to Mexico. Did it increase the quality of life and pay increases for Mexicans? Nada. Their still dirt poor and angry much like the citizens of another country near and dear to our hearts. The reason that these negotiations are so secret is so that ordinary citizens cannot see how big business is screwing them over running to cheap labor countries with questionable environmental practices. Its all about Greed and cheap labor. In time through robotics and 3D printing these jobs will return to Western shores. By that time the workers there will be so full of paranoia they will perform in a rather robotic fashion as well and will accept the wages that BB dictates they are worth. The Republicans will by then have reduced the size of government to a shadow of its former self. They will have dried up all welfare payments and forced these people into low paying jobs and will have cut taxes for the rich to next to nothing. They will also have taken away women's rights over their bodies so that there will be an endless supply of young cheap labor to replace the increased numbers of sick and dying. They will have a ticker tape parade down main street in New York with the Koch Bros. and their ilk as parade marshals sitting in the limo's tossing pennies to the shouting crowd. After all pennies will be worthless by then. All transactions will be electronic anyways by then so that the underground economy dies and the Fed can easier print edollars out of thin air and keep track of you and your money. 2084 sounds to far in the future how about 2035

Unfortunately I have to agree, sentence by sentence, word by word. No, the future doesn't look bright. The "Masses" with their right to vote could stop it.

But like comrade Lenin said, some 97 years ago: The "Masses" are merely useful idiots.

Cheers.

[dru2]

TPP is bad bad bad, for everyone except US big business.

See Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University on the topic ... http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-secret-corporate-takeover-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-05

Finally somebody shining a light on the real problem of these trade deals. Look at NAFTA. All good jobs shifted from America and Canada to Mexico. Did it increase the quality of life and pay increases for Mexicans? Nada. Their still dirt poor and angry much like the citizens of another country near and dear to our hearts. The reason that these negotiations are so secret is so that ordinary citizens cannot see how big business is screwing them over running to cheap labor countries with questionable environmental practices. Its all about Greed and cheap labor. In time through robotics and 3D printing these jobs will return to Western shores. By that time the workers there will be so full of paranoia they will perform in a rather robotic fashion as well and will accept the wages that BB dictates they are worth. The Republicans will by then have reduced the size of government to a shadow of its former self. They will have dried up all welfare payments and forced these people into low paying jobs and will have cut taxes for the rich to next to nothing. They will also have taken away women's rights over their bodies so that there will be an endless supply of young cheap labor to replace the increased numbers of sick and dying. They will have a ticker tape parade down main street in New York with the Koch Bros. and their ilk as parade marshals sitting in the limo's tossing pennies to the shouting crowd. After all pennies will be worthless by then. All transactions will be electronic anyways by then so that the underground economy dies and the Fed can easier print edollars out of thin air and keep track of you and your money. 2084 sounds to far in the future how about 2035

Unfortunately I have to agree, sentence by sentence, word by word. No, the future doesn't look bright. The "Masses" with their right to vote could stop it.

But like comrade Lenin said, some 97 years ago: The "Masses" are merely useful idiots.

Cheers.

Please show me where Lenin said this, together with a precise textual reference - if you can.

[Thai at Heart]

Why don't they lower the baht to 50 for a euro to start with?

Yes imported goods will cost more so Thai will use more local goods which is good for their economy.

Export will thrive from that as well, tourism will come back (quality tourists who stay 3 weeks) , investment might come back if they give farang more rights and fair treatment.

What would they have to do to do this, oh professor........

Oh, and which local oil field are they going to find to use all that local fuel from that they don't have...

They can just print more Baht and throw them out of a helicopter.

Oil they can buy in chinese currency, that was the plan allready. And oil is still cheap anyway.

Without export/tourism it's a downward spiral, Thailand is just too expensive in everything.

Neither a very palatable prospect I fear. China is a net importer of oil, so they don't have much spare, and printing that much baht would stoke inflation to God knows what.

I would suggest they reform the FDA rules to allow more companies into the domestic market both for domestic and export business. There are still large tracts of the Thai economy hiding behind protectionism.

With a military govt in power, Many companies are not going to invest on principal. Throw in 2 coups in the last 10 years and the odd flood, and even more are put off. Thailand obsession with getting thaksin out of power has killed the FDI today.

Thailand has to do something to polish itself up for Fdi. Alas, somethings are very hard to polish.

Edited October 13, 2015 by Thai at Heart

[dru2]

TPP is bad bad bad, for everyone except US big business.

See Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University on the topic ... http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-secret-corporate-takeover-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-05

Finally somebody shining a light on the real problem of these trade deals. Look at NAFTA. All good jobs shifted from America and Canada to Mexico. Did it increase the quality of life and pay increases for Mexicans? Nada. Their still dirt poor and angry much like the citizens of another country near and dear to our hearts. The reason that these negotiations are so secret is so that ordinary citizens cannot see how big business is screwing them over running to cheap labor countries with questionable environmental practices. Its all about Greed and cheap labor. In time through robotics and 3D printing these jobs will return to Western shores. By that time the workers there will be so full of paranoia they will perform in a rather robotic fashion as well and will accept the wages that BB dictates they are worth. The Republicans will by then have reduced the size of government to a shadow of its former self. They will have dried up all welfare payments and forced these people into low paying jobs and will have cut taxes for the rich to next to nothing. They will also have taken away women's rights over their bodies so that there will be an endless supply of young cheap labor to replace the increased numbers of sick and dying. They will have a ticker tape parade down main street in New York with the Koch Bros. and their ilk as parade marshals sitting in the limo's tossing pennies to the shouting crowd. After all pennies will be worthless by then. All transactions will be electronic anyways by then so that the underground economy dies and the Fed can easier print edollars out of thin air and keep track of you and your money. 2084 sounds to far in the future how about 2035

Unfortunately I have to agree, sentence by sentence, word by word. No, the future doesn't look bright. The "Masses" with their right to vote could stop it.

But like comrade Lenin said, some 97 years ago: The "Masses" are merely useful idiots.

Cheers.

So you cannot answer.

Lenin said no such thing and you are a charlatan.

[waza]

TPP is bad bad bad, for everyone except US big business.

See Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University on the topic ... http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-secret-corporate-takeover-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-05

Finally somebody shining a light on the real problem of these trade deals. Look at NAFTA. All good jobs shifted from America and Canada to Mexico. Did it increase the quality of life and pay increases for Mexicans? Nada. Their still dirt poor and angry much like the citizens of another country near and dear to our hearts. The reason that these negotiations are so secret is so that ordinary citizens cannot see how big business is screwing them over running to cheap labor countries with questionable environmental practices. Its all about Greed and cheap labor. In time through robotics and 3D printing these jobs will return to Western shores. By that time the workers there will be so full of paranoia they will perform in a rather robotic fashion as well and will accept the wages that BB dictates they are worth. The Republicans will by then have reduced the size of government to a shadow of its former self. They will have dried up all welfare payments and forced these people into low paying jobs and will have cut taxes for the rich to next to nothing. They will also have taken away women's rights over their bodies so that there will be an endless supply of young cheap labor to replace the increased numbers of sick and dying. They will have a ticker tape parade down main street in New York with the Koch Bros. and their ilk as parade marshals sitting in the limo's tossing pennies to the shouting crowd. After all pennies will be worthless by then. All transactions will be electronic anyways by then so that the underground economy dies and the Fed can easier print edollars out of thin air and keep track of you and your money. 2084 sounds to far in the future how about 2035

Unfortunately I have to agree, sentence by sentence, word by word. No, the future doesn't look bright. The "Masses" with their right to vote could stop it.

But like comrade Lenin said, some 97 years ago: The "Masses" are merely useful idiots.

Cheers.

So you cannot answer.

Lenin said no such thing and you are a charlatan.

No Stalin said it, and its ironic that it applies to your comment. While the German economist Karl Marx said, "Religion is the opium of the people ". This applies to the Red cult as well and explains their unwavering support for thaksinomics and its corrupt criminal founder. But back to the topic, name me one free trade agreement that has a free market and name me one capitalist country that's doing well?

Edited October 13, 2015 by waza

[Lunchbob]

This is great because there can be no doubt who is willing to sell out the people of the country to western corporate blank blank.

[Langsuan Man]

Thailand should have just joined TPP and then just ignored all it's provisions it doesn't like, that is what they do with every other International agreement that they sign

Sign it and then forget it, what are the effected countries going to do, invade Thailand by submarine to force compliance ?

[geriatrickid]

if thailand is stupid enough (yes they are) to join this first step of Agenda 21 then they might as well shut down the country ..it will destroy trade.

expats here will be falling over themselves to get out of the place as daily life will change dramatically... I could go on but PLEASE spend 30 minutes today reserching the TPP (what you can actually find out about this secret agenda)

then look at TTIP and TSIA... this is the NWO one world everything ...as i say its all into the UN AGENDA 21; 192 Countrys AGREED and signed up to it in 1992 and now its full on to implement it

this is scary stuff

You have no investment in a business that relies on the export market do you? Nor do you have any understanding of Thailand's exports markets either, do you? Instead you offer up a scare scenario. You claim the TTP will destroy trade, but you don't even know what the agreement will involve or what is at stake. Instead you run aound afraid, inventing a big bad conspiracy.

While you were making false claims and Thailand was oblivious to the TPP, Thailand had its opportunity to expand its export of auto parts curtailed when Mexico and Canada cut back Japan's attempt to amend the North American Automobile import regulations to allow a greater use of Thai components in Japanese vehicles. Because Thailand wasn't a party to the trade talks, it was clueless to what was negotiated. The failure of Thailand to participate means that it could very well find itself priced out of its most profitable export market. Are you even aware that Thailand's economic life depends upon access to North America? The most profitable exports go the USA/Canada and EU. The TPP means that agricultural tariffs will come down for signatories. Chile will be able to have greater access to the USA for its aquaculture. Vietnam is going to have a financial jackpot as it will be able to send its textiles & garments, rice and small consumer goods to North America under favourable tariff treatment. Thailand is going to be pushed out. Japan and Vietnam would be favoured over Thailand for trade. That is what is at stake. Vietnam and Malaysia will become the designated food suppliers for Japan and the USA. In return, Australia and New Zealand should they sign on, will have easier access into Malaysia and Vietnam. What's scary is that people like you are clueless as to what is at stake. Thailand is going to get squeezed out of access to the Australia, Canada, USA, and Japan markets. Thailand's economy cannot afford to lose this access.

[geriatrickid]

No Stalin said it, and its ironic that it applies to your comment. While the German economist Karl Marx said, "Religion is the opium of the people ". This applies to the Red cult as well and explains their unwavering support for thaksinomics and its corrupt criminal founder. But back to the topic, name me one free trade agreement that has a free market and name me one capitalist country that's doing well?

Free trade agreements are targeted agreements and they do deliver on what is agreed to. I see the repetition of the falsehood about NAFTA, so I will use NAFTA as an example. The intent of NAFTA was to eliminate trade barriers between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. In that respect, it unlocked the shackles on those operations which provided goods and services, making trade more "free". No one has ever claimed that there was a free market. A free market is one that has no regulations whatsoever. Anti dumping regulations, fair trade practices, intellectual property rights were strengthened under NAFTA. Trade barriers make goods and services more expensive than they need be and are an indirect form of hidden taxation which punish efficient and cost efficient operations.

You ask that we name a capitalist country that is doing well. That is a relative term. On the whole capitalist countries are doing much better than countries which are not. If capitalist countries are such failures, why are all those Eritreans, Arabs, and Afghanis running to the capitalist countries of the EU, USA and Canada? They aren't running to Zimbabwe, Russia, or the socialist utopias of Cuba or Ecuador or Venezuela are they?

Seems to me that capitalist countries like Switzerland, Germany, Australia, Canada etc. are all doing much better than non capitalist countries.

.