The strongest El Nino in decades is going to mess with everything

[webfact]

The Strongest El Nino in Decades Is Going to Mess With Everything
Brian K Sullivan

- Drought relief possible in California, dryness in Australia
- People, crops, birds, fish all will feel effects of El Nino

It has choked Singapore with smoke, triggered Pacific typhoons and left Vietnamese coffee growers staring nervously at dwindling reservoirs. In Africa, cocoa farmers are blaming it for bad harvests, and in the Americas, it has Argentines bracing for lower milk production and Californians believing that rain will finally, mercifully fall.

El Nino is back and in a big way.

Its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950. It will dominate weather’s many twists and turns through the end of this year and well into next. And it’s causing gyrations in everything from the price of Colombian coffee to the fate of cold-water fish.

Expect “major disruptions, widespread droughts and floods,” Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. In principle, with advance warning, El Nino can be managed and prepared for, “but without that knowledge, all kinds of mayhem will let loose.”

Full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/a-huge-el-nino-is-spreading-all-kinds-of-mayhem-around-the-world

-- BloombergBusiness 2015-10-23

[spidermike007]

One can only hope and pray for such a thing, as a big El Nino year. So many areas are suffering from massive drought. California is attempting to deny that they are in a crisis stage. I believe, if we continue with the current trends, and California does not get off their asses with desalination very soon, we are ten years away from the first huge wave of migration out of the state. We may be 20 years away from the first MANDATORY migration wave out of the state. Last year, much of the state got only 5" of rain. Many areas just north of the Sahara desert get more than that. If the rainfalls do not increase in the Western US, the only solution will be for municipalities to raise the water rates to the point where they will discourage consumption. And I mean really raise rates. We could be looking at $20 showers. And $5,000 to fill your pool with water. Now that would have an real impact on quality of life. Most people do not see it. When I am California, which is often, I discuss this with friends, and they are all in denial. The state seems to be in denial too, as there are not any real serious effort toward major desalination plants in the state, or on the west coast. I am told it has to do with the possibility some seals could be harmed.

I do hear there is one plant under construction in the San Diego area. But, there should be 20 in the state, minimum. Here is an excerpt from a recent article in the New Yorker:

But desal has a troubled history in the United States. Engineering problems at a Tampa Bay, Florida, plant reduced the facility’s operating capacity by eighty per cent for years, costing the city millions more than it had budgeted. A plant in Santa Barbara, California, has been mothballed for more than two decades, after a devastating drought in the nineteen-nineties. It just became too expensive to operate after rainfall returned and filled local reservoirs. Today, the total volume of desal production from seawater in the U.S. doesn’t amount to much—less than the Carlsbad plant will yield on its own.

Edited October 24, 2015 by spidermike007

[boomerangutang]

I was in California a month ago. I didn't see everything, and was focused on the northern part, which is like a different state. Drought yes. Mass migration out of state? Not at all, but again I'm referencing north CA, not the south. If anything, there's a migration of backpackers coming in to the state (from around the world). Why? Because there are tens of thousands of good-paying jobs related to the pot industry. Now that pot-growing is legal, there are hundreds of millions of dollars being generated, and the money is going to to individuals, not to corporations. Yay!

El Nino? Bring it on. Not sure how it will affect northern Thailand, though. We've had a dry monsoon season, and nights are warmer than they ordinarily are at this time.

[Usernames]

The last time I remember a big El Nino year in California was back in the late 90s, and, although I might be wrong, I seem to remember that it mainly effected the northern part of the state. Such a turn of events would leave the regions in drought still stuck in drought. Meanwhile, I see discussions of California being in the beginning of a 500 year mega-drought. If that's the case, El Nino will not matter much anyway. As for out migration, it has already been occurring. Among native born American citizens, there has already been a net shift to out migration. California continues to be overwhelmed and have its water supply sucked dry, however, because of the non-stop flood of illegal aliens and legal immigrants from outside the US.

[Seastallion]

People need to understand el nino vs el nina, and that when the Western Pacific is in trouble, the Eastern Pacific is in paradise, and visa versa.

[TheKnave]

People need to understand el nino vs el nina, and that when the Western Pacific is in trouble, the Eastern Pacific is in paradise, and visa versa.

It's 'El Niño'and 'LA Niña'.

You're welcome.

[impulse]

One can only hope and pray for such a thing, as a big El Nino year. So many areas are suffering from massive drought. California is attempting to deny that they are in a crisis stage. I believe, if we continue with the current trends, and California does not get off their asses with desalination very soon, we are ten years away from the first huge wave of migration out of the state.

California's water problem won't be solved by desalination. They have plenty of water for household needs. What they don't have is enough cheap water to meet the agricultural needs on top of that.

Desalinated water isn't cheap water. It's great for household use where you can charge $$$ per 1000 gallons, but not for irrigation at $$ per million gallons.

Rather than a mass exodus, I think we'll see a massive increase in the price of the food that's grown in California, or a massive increase in the imports of the same foods- grown in areas of the world that have abundant rainfall- along with a tragic shakeout in the California agriculture biz.

Edited October 24, 2015 by impulse

[Seastallion]

People need to understand el nino vs el nina, and that when the Western Pacific is in trouble, the Eastern Pacific is in paradise, and visa versa.

It's 'El Niño'and 'LA Niña'.

You're welcome.

Thank you.

For once, you're right,

And from your previous logic, I "lied" in informing "el nina".

[elgordo38]

I was in California a month ago. I didn't see everything, and was focused on the northern part, which is like a different state. Drought yes. Mass migration out of state? Not at all, but again I'm referencing north CA, not the south. If anything, there's a migration of backpackers coming in to the state (from around the world). Why? Because there are tens of thousands of good-paying jobs related to the pot industry. Now that pot-growing is legal, there are hundreds of millions of dollars being generated, and the money is going to to individuals, not to corporations. Yay!

El Nino? Bring it on. Not sure how it will affect northern Thailand, though. We've had a dry monsoon season, and nights are warmer than they ordinarily are at this time.

You don't honestly think that corporations are going to miss out on marijuana money do you? If there is a profit there they will stamp out individual opposition and take over the market. Corporations are in juggernaut mode sucking up profits wherever available. They are everywhere and when caught pay meager fines and just keep rolling along.

[Skeptic7]

One can only hope and pray for such a thing, as a big El Nino year.

Pray??? Really??? And maybe do a Rain Dance then too...

Edited October 24, 2015 by Skeptic7

[ALLSEEINGEYE]

on a positive note, all of the money big corporations have paid the the US congress and the other politicians around the world to deny global warming and reject any bills that cut into profits by protecting the environment, are making record profits.

I wonder what they will do with all of their money once they have finished killing the planet?

Having all the money in the world won't buy you anything if there is nothing to buy.

[elgordo38]

on a positive note, all of the money big corporations have paid the the US congress and the other politicians around the world to deny global warming and reject any bills that cut into profits by protecting the environment, are making record profits.

I wonder what they will do with all of their money once they have finished killing the planet?

Having all the money in the world won't buy you anything if there is nothing to buy.

My hats off to you you could follow what is happening to its ultimate conclusion. Sadly 99.9% of the rest of the worlds population cannot. To add to your statement when large corporations have reduced the rest of us into accepting starvation wages who will have the money to buy all the products that will endlessly drop off of their convey belt. I can just picture it all stacking up.

[willyumiii]

The last time I remember a big El Nino year in California was back in the late 90s, and, although I might be wrong, I seem to remember that it mainly effected the northern part of the state. Such a turn of events would leave the regions in drought still stuck in drought. Meanwhile, I see discussions of California being in the beginning of a 500 year mega-drought. If that's the case, El Nino will not matter much anyway. As for out migration, it has already been occurring. Among native born American citizens, there has already been a net shift to out migration. California continues to be overwhelmed and have its water supply sucked dry, however, because of the non-stop flood of illegal aliens and legal immigrants from outside the US.

I am a native third generation Californian and lived there exclusivly for almost 60 years ( 59).

You do not seem to be aware of two important points.

1) Southern California is a desert that has always depended on water from Northern California and other places like Colorado.

2) In recent years there has been very little "illegal immigration" from Mexico.

There is very little work in California now for immigrants and the drought has made it even worse.

Many farm labors ( illegals to you) have returned to Mexico.

[Dumbastheycome]

on a positive note, all of the money big corporations have paid the the US congress and the other politicians around the world to deny global warming and reject any bills that cut into profits by protecting the environment, are making record profits.

I wonder what they will do with all of their money once they have finished killing the planet?

Having all the money in the world won't buy you anything if there is nothing to buy.

My hats off to you you could follow what is happening to its ultimate conclusion. Sadly 99.9% of the rest of the worlds population cannot. To add to your statement when large corporations have reduced the rest of us into accepting starvation wages who will have the money to buy all the products that will endlessly drop off of their convey belt. I can just picture it all stacking up.

Sadly 99% are already well down that road of deception....Corporate greed has already begun to destroy the same governances that have been protecting them. Globilization is already faltering as nations are constricting and contracting smaller economic regional alliances with increasingly less democratic governances. The impact of an El Nino of more significant effect may well controversially justify such political movements. Robotically produced consumables could percievably become expensive luxuries despite mass outputs when the general populace is struggling to afford food and energy costs alone. Evidence of the stress to/on globalization expectations is the increase in militant assertions from significant nations. The possibility that Nature will subvert or trigger reactions not necessarily desired by the worlds population without regard to politics or corporate desire should maybe contemplated. In any case the world wheel will turn.

[spidermike007]

The last time I remember a big El Nino year in California was back in the late 90s, and, although I might be wrong, I seem to remember that it mainly effected the northern part of the state. Such a turn of events would leave the regions in drought still stuck in drought. Meanwhile, I see discussions of California being in the beginning of a 500 year mega-drought. If that's the case, El Nino will not matter much anyway. As for out migration, it has already been occurring. Among native born American citizens, there has already been a net shift to out migration. California continues to be overwhelmed and have its water supply sucked dry, however, because of the non-stop flood of illegal aliens and legal immigrants from outside the US.

I am a native third generation Californian and lived there exclusivly for almost 60 years ( 59).

You do not seem to be aware of two important points.

1) Southern California is a desert that has always depended on water from Northern California and other places like Colorado.

2) In recent years there has been very little "illegal immigration" from Mexico.

There is very little work in California now for immigrants and the drought has made it even worse.

Many farm labors ( illegals to you) have returned to Mexico.

Could you please tell that to Don the dipshit.

[boomerangutang]

The Donald would get a copyright on El Nino, and get royalties from everyone who's affected by it. He tried to copyright the phrase 'you're fired!' I kid you not.

[Usernames]

The last time I remember a big El Nino year in California was back in the late 90s, and, although I might be wrong, I seem to remember that it mainly effected the northern part of the state. Such a turn of events would leave the regions in drought still stuck in drought. Meanwhile, I see discussions of California being in the beginning of a 500 year mega-drought. If that's the case, El Nino will not matter much anyway. As for out migration, it has already been occurring. Among native born American citizens, there has already been a net shift to out migration. California continues to be overwhelmed and have its water supply sucked dry, however, because of the non-stop flood of illegal aliens and legal immigrants from outside the US.

I am a native third generation Californian and lived there exclusivly for almost 60 years ( 59).

You do not seem to be aware of two important points.

1) Southern California is a desert that has always depended on water from Northern California and other places like Colorado.

2) In recent years there has been very little "illegal immigration" from Mexico.

There is very little work in California now for immigrants and the drought has made it even worse.

Many farm labors ( illegals to you) have returned to Mexico.

Whether illegal immigration has continued the last few years isn't the point. Much of California's current unsustainable population is the result of at least three decades of uncontrolled illegal immigration. And btw there is NEVER any need for a farm laborer to be illegal, as the US government provides a visa, largely going to Mexicans, specifically designated for farm laborers. Only the greed of farmers and the WGA who want to undercut legal wages for Mexican workers keeps the illegal pipeline going.

Edited October 24, 2015 by Usernames

[up2u2]

The overall Global effect of El Niño and La Niña are negative extremes of Weather and prolonged climatic events.

Both create extreme and damaging events in Northern and Southern hemispheres.

El Niño and La Niña = bad not good. That is why they are monitored so closely to forecast adverse weather events such as torrential rainfall, flooding mudslides, prolonged droughts and crop failures and increased destructive Hurricanes.

[kannot]

The last time I remember a big El Nino year in California was back in the late 90s, and, although I might be wrong, I seem to remember that it mainly effected the northern part of the state. Such a turn of events would leave the regions in drought still stuck in drought. Meanwhile, I see discussions of California being in the beginning of a 500 year mega-drought. If that's the case, El Nino will not matter much anyway. As for out migration, it has already been occurring. Among native born American citizens, there has already been a net shift to out migration. California continues to be overwhelmed and have its water supply sucked dry, however, because of the non-stop flood of illegal aliens and legal immigrants from outside the US.

I am a native third generation Californian and lived there exclusivly for almost 60 years ( 59).

You do not seem to be aware of two important points.

1) Southern California is a desert that has always depended on water from Northern California and other places like Colorado.

2) In recent years there has been very little "illegal immigration" from Mexico.

There is very little work in California now for immigrants and the drought has made it even worse.

Many farm labors ( illegals to you) have returned to Mexico.

Yes makes me laugh when they talk about California as if it was some sort of wetlands previously to the latest drought.............this is the problem with the climate change BS everything was " better" before

[55Jay]

End of rain season and my town just put us on water rationing hours, 0800-1700.

We had a fair amount of rain but the ground didn't get saturated enough to cause more to run into the local reservoirs.

I've got about 9,000 liters of rain water stored. The next 6 to 7 months is going to be tough.

[up2u2]

End of rain season and my town just put us on water rationing hours, 0800-1700.

We had a fair amount of rain but the ground didn't get saturated enough to cause more to run into the local reservoirs.

I've got about 9,000 liters of rain water stored. The next 6 to 7 months is going to be tough.

What Country 55jay?

[spidermike007]

One can only hope and pray for such a thing, as a big El Nino year.

Pray??? Really??? And maybe do a Rain Dance then too...

It was meant as a figurative manner of speaking. But, sorry you have problems with things of an abstract nature.

[55Jay]

End of rain season and my town just put us on water rationing hours, 0800-1700.

We had a fair amount of rain but the ground didn't get saturated enough to cause more to run into the local reservoirs.

I've got about 9,000 liters of rain water stored. The next 6 to 7 months is going to be tough.

What Country 55jay?

GMT+7

[boomerangutang]

Interesting map of California with all the colors. I resided there for most (25) of those years, left in '98 for Thailand. It's odd that the two places I resided are both colored dark blue on the map. Update: I was in CA recently, and I stopped in the tiny town of Coleman on the Nevada border, just south of Lake Tahoe. I asked a guy who ran a trailer park if I could pay to take a shower there. He laughed good-naturedly and said, 'no' as they they hadn't had a drop of rain in 5 years.

[TheKnave]

People need to understand el nino vs el nina, and that when the Western Pacific is in trouble, the Eastern Pacific is in paradise, and visa versa.

It's 'El Niño'and 'LA Niña'.

You're welcome.

Thank you.

For once, you're right,

And from your previous logic, I "lied" in informing "el nina".

"For once" is, of course, forum-speak for "As usual"...

And I agree with Seastallion...

See how that works??

Lolzzz ?