SURVEY: Do you believe there is high probability of a terrorist attack in Thailand?

[Scott]

The recent leaked memo purported to have come from the Russian Federal Security Services has warned of a potential terrorist attack in Thailand. In your opinion, do you believe these reports are credible and there is a good chance of a terrorist attack in Thailand?

Please feel free to make a comment.

Here are some links to threads on the subject:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/875864-moscow-warns-that-isis-in-thailand-to-attack-russian-targets/

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/876030-walking-street-khaosan-road-believed-to-be-targets-of-isis-in-thailand/

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/876209-no-imminent-threat-russian-ambassador/

[inaktive]

the question is a bit unspecified ... i am very sure there is a high risk of a terrorist attack but not sure it from out of country.

every week there are bombs going off in the south and i am still totally surprised the "idiots" fighting there didnt long ago go for the tourists to <deleted> up the moneyflow and perhaps make the government let them go for the cash they stand too loose

[Seastallion]

I said No. But with reservations: "High" and "Low" are subjective.

With regard to Russian intel and Syrian men entering the country, I think the likeliehood is very low.

That's not to say a different set of men won't do something, especially to Russians.

And cue the guys who will drift off-topic and bring up the South's troubles.

[z42]

I think one thing that seems certain enough is that if any such thing happens the cops / army will be ill prepared to investigate it and deter other would be attackers from doing the same.

I expect something pretty grave will happen in the region soon enough

[NongKhaiKid]

It's naive to think there's not the possibility but TIT where officials have to import sand for them to bury their heads in since there isn't enough available locally.

[MRDave]

Lots of Russians, lots of Europeons, fair sized Arab quarters, lax corrupt Police.

[Jingthing]

Not enough choices, but I would say a moderate to higher chance of a Daesh / Al Queda (etc.) related attack within a year's time. Directed at foreigners, of course.

Of course there are frequent Muslim separatist terror attacks in South Thailand and there was the recent Chinese Muslim Uighur related terror attack in Bangkok at the Erawan shrine.

So I reckon the OP relates to Daesh or Al Queda (more international Islamist Jihadist) and/or self radicalized Thai Muslims who follow their terrorist suggestions (as recently happened in the U.S.).

Thailand wasn't spared impact from the last world war ... being "neutral" only gets you so far.

Edited December 7, 2015 by Jingthing

[PattayaPhom]

Very worrying times ahead, islam has always wanted the World and the past 15 years have come to the forefront again. Two attacks this week already in London and California with over 30 suppressed by intelligence. Softer targets as whats happened in Tunisia are therefor preferred options for terrorists hence Thailand will be high on their list. With Christmas coming I wouldn't be surprised if we see something disturbing within the next 3 weeks.

[geriatrickid]

I said No. But with reservations: "High" and "Low" are subjective.

With regard to Russian intel and Syrian men entering the country, I think the likeliehood is very low.

That's not to say a different set of men won't do something, especially to Russians.

And cue the guys who will drift off-topic and bring up the South's troubles.

It is not off topic to reference the ongoing insurrection in the South. If you don't believe that sooner rather than later the southern insurgents will make a deal with other groups, then you are naive. The history of terrorist groups has been that they link up with others even if they may not share identical ideologies.

[Briggsy]

I voted no as I assumed you are referring to a "spectacular" ISIS style attack on foreign tourists.

Of course, there has already been the terrorist attack at the Erawan shrine.

[ChrisY1]

We tend to keep away from areas where foreigners congregate nowadays in Thailand....so an attack is on our minds to a degree....

We should all by now, understand how easy another attack could be launched in Thailand..........

Edited December 7, 2015 by ChrisY1

[Seastallion]

I said No. But with reservations: "High" and "Low" are subjective.

With regard to Russian intel and Syrian men entering the country, I think the likeliehood is very low.

That's not to say a different set of men won't do something, especially to Russians.

And cue the guys who will drift off-topic and bring up the South's troubles.

It is not off topic to reference the ongoing insurrection in the South. If you don't believe that sooner rather than later the southern insurgents will make a deal with other groups, then you are naive. The history of terrorist groups has been that they link up with others even if they may not share identical ideologies.

It is off-topic if you understand the OP is about foreign terrorists, and if you understand the insurgency in the South has nothing to do with jihad.

[Caveat Emptor]

Heaven forbid anything happens but it's not reassuring in the least to hear talk of being on ' High Alert ' which probably equates to the infamous crackdowns and other such expressions that mean nothing and usually result in nothing.

[razer]

Look at the past ... look at the present ... predict the future

Past - Domestic politically motivated terrorist; foreign criminal or religious motivated terrorist (Erawan Shrine bomb)

Present - Royal Thai Police efficiency, training and work ethic ??? Border control and vigilance ??? FSB warning.

Unknown - Thai military intelligence and training

Future - Probability of a terrorist act taking place could be a reasonable conclusion

[ThaiWai]

I think one thing that seems certain enough is that if any such thing happens the cops / army will be ill prepared to investigate it and deter other would be attackers from doing the same.

I expect something pretty grave will happen in the region soon enough

Like the French cops/army

[BSJ]

Not a good poll to answer! I am guessing the Bali bombing wasn't on anyone's radar back then.....or Tunisia. There is always a possiblility something may happen...anywhere!

[rhodie]

Anywhere that can make an impact and Thailand has lots of tourist hot spots. I would say just a matter of time before the next one.

[smotherb]

the question is a bit unspecified ... i am very sure there is a high risk of a terrorist attack but not sure it from out of country.

every week there are bombs going off in the south and i am still totally surprised the "idiots" fighting there didnt long ago go for the tourists to <deleted> up the moneyflow and perhaps make the government let them go for the cash they stand too loose

Exactly, I live in the South and have witnessed several terrorist attacks in recent years. We all witnessed the terrorist attacks in BKK just a few months ago. So, the headline question is a bit rhetorical, except to clarify it as associated to the Russian statement.

[asdecas]

What a nonsensical survey.

In the next one hundred years? Yes, with one hundred percent certainty.

Why do many Western governments warn against travel to certain Southern provinces - because the food's no good?

[JAG]

Not enough choices, but I would say a moderate to higher chance of a Daesh / Al Queda (etc.) related attack within a year's time. Directed at foreigners, of course.

Of course there are frequent Muslim separatist terror attacks in South Thailand and there was the recent Chinese Muslim Uighur related terror attack in Bangkok at the Erawan shrine.

So I reckon the OP relates to Daesh or Al Queda (more international Islamist Jihadist) and/or self radicalized Thai Muslims who follow their terrorist suggestions (as recently happened in the U.S.).

Thailand wasn't spared impact from the last world war ... being "neutral" only gets you so far.

As far as Daesh or Al Quaida are concerned there aren't really any neutrals, only countries they haven't got round to attacking yet.

With Thailands high western tourist profile an attack is very likely..

And yes, the campaign in the south may predate ISIL or Al Quaida, but I'll bet there will be some takers if they offer to get involved/help.

Edited December 7, 2015 by JAG

[smotherb]

I said No. But with reservations: "High" and "Low" are subjective.

With regard to Russian intel and Syrian men entering the country, I think the likeliehood is very low.

That's not to say a different set of men won't do something, especially to Russians.

And cue the guys who will drift off-topic and bring up the South's troubles.

It is not off topic to reference the ongoing insurrection in the South. If you don't believe that sooner rather than later the southern insurgents will make a deal with other groups, then you are naive. The history of terrorist groups has been that they link up with others even if they may not share identical ideologies.

It is off-topic if you understand the OP is about foreign terrorists, and if you understand the insurgency in the South has nothing to do with jihad.

There we go with the old buggaboo of off-topic. Do you always wear blinders? Do you think it really makes a difference if you are killed by a jihadist's or jesuit's bullet?

I maintain these forums are to draw comment and discussion and if the posters care to go off-topic and that draws further comment, the forum has succeeded. If you want to get it back on topic, make your on-topic comment more interesting.

Additionally, the forum title plainly states,

"Do you believe there is high probability of a terrorist attack in Thailand?"

Yes, the poster made reference to the Russian intel; but that is just one example of a terrorist attack.

[NormanW]

No way.

There are far more prominent cities around the world other than Bangkok.

[micmichd]

No. "Terrorists" are made in the West and by the West. The struggle in the Pattani area is something else, an internal Asian affair.

[Thailand101]

For anyone to say "no", you must have a very short memory and forgotten about the bombing in Bangkok several months ago, AND have complete faith in the keystone cops that are also known as the Thai police.

Good luck breathing with your head in the sand, or in another location....

[gemguy]

Not a high probability..rather a lower probability....seeing as there have been several incidents already...or have we forgotten that.

[MobileContent]

I voted with yes as we just had a terrorist attack just a few months ago at the Erawan Shrine and their are daily terrorist attacks in the South.

[Seastallion]

I said No. But with reservations: "High" and "Low" are subjective.

With regard to Russian intel and Syrian men entering the country, I think the likeliehood is very low.

That's not to say a different set of men won't do something, especially to Russians.

And cue the guys who will drift off-topic and bring up the South's troubles.

It is not off topic to reference the ongoing insurrection in the South. If you don't believe that sooner rather than later the southern insurgents will make a deal with other groups, then you are naive. The history of terrorist groups has been that they link up with others even if they may not share identical ideologies.

It is off-topic if you understand the OP is about foreign terrorists, and if you understand the insurgency in the South has nothing to do with jihad.

There we go with the old buggaboo of off-topic. Do you always wear blinders? Do you think it really makes a difference if you are killed by a jihadist's or jesuit's bullet?

I maintain these forums are to draw comment and discussion and if the posters care to go off-topic and that draws further comment, the forum has succeeded. If you want to get it back on topic, make your on-topic comment more interesting.

Additionally, the forum title plainly states,

"Do you believe there is high probability of a terrorist attack in Thailand?"

Yes, the poster made reference to the Russian intel; but that is just one example of a terrorist attack.

Re "off-topic", I agree wholeheartedly with you.

My comment was aimed at the Islamaphobes who will use the OP (about Russian intel and imported jihadists) to make out that the Southern problem is somehow connected to international Islamic extremists, which it is not.

[Colabamumbai]

It depends who Ocha treats minorities in Thailand, as shown by the recent Erawan Shrine bombing, or the two Chinese he deported to China, who were to go to Canada. What goes around comes around if you look at the countries that are supporting the Assad regime and supposedly against ISIL, look what is happening there. Russia, France, and possibly the U.S. with the recent killings there.

[Mr Creosote]

It can happen anywhere, anytime in any country. The thing is, keep calm and carry on. Dont let all the hype be effective in scaring you. This is the whole purpose of "terrorism" in the first place. Dont buy into it.

[METV]

I believe Thai government has wised up to how to manipulate people through terror.

The best way to submit people and pass whatever law they wish against foreigners, is to use the old boogie man excuse, the West has been using for the past 15 years.