Pound/Baht in 2016

[chiang mai]

The question for UK expats in Thailand is, where is the pair headed next year and why:

The UK economy and Pound Sterling

Banks and analysts think the Pound is over valued, Deutsche Bank says it's the most over valued of all currencies. But the strength of Sterling means there's no room for rate increases, many now believe until 2017. And whilst UK GDP is better than anything coming out of Europe, the UK economy remains heavily reliant on consumer spending, almost all other indicators are falling, property prices appear over inflated - debt and deficit continue to increase from an already high base plus risks from the referendum hover, the base rate is 0.5%. All those things being said, the UK has a knack of returning from the brink and doing the seemingly impossible so we don't count her as down and out by any means.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/27/gdp-uk-economy-in-five-charts-third-quarter-slowdown

Thailand and THB

Bank non-performing loans have increased in some areas, about 2.8% overall, personal and manufacturing loans have increased substantially in the last quarter yet mortgage defaults are not huge by any measure. Debt remains acceptably low and the budget deficit is currently quite small, GDP at around 2.8% is lower than most in the region but is far higher than the UK and Europe - inflation remains low as does unemployment, tourism remains buoyant and foreign currency reserves are stable at USD 155 bill., the bank lending rate is 1.5%.

https://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Graph/Pages/NPL.aspx

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=80&language=ENG

My best guess is that we'll see GBP/THB around 45 by end 2016.

So where's it headed and why?

Edited December 27, 2015 by seedy
OP request

[Chivas]

Pound over valued !! Hardly !! $1.483 is the weakest its been for some time

[chiang mai]

Pound over valued !! Hardly !! $1.483 is the weakest its been for some time

It's weaker than it was, the weakest since April when it was 1.47 but it's still not weak, without looking in detail I would guess it's around it's long term average value.

But the question was more about GBP and THB although I do accept the USD reference..

EDIT to add the following for relevance to the thread.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/881862-britains-growth-revised-downwards-suggesting-recovery-losing-momentum/#entry10238748

Edited December 27, 2015 by chiang mai

[Chivas]

Pound over valued !! Hardly !! $1.483 is the weakest its been for some time

It's weaker than it was, the weakest since April when it was 1.47 but it's still not weak, without looking in detail I would guess it's around it's long term average value.

But the question was more about GBP and THB although I do accept the USD reference..

EDIT to add the following for relevance to the thread.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/881862-britains-growth-revised-downwards-suggesting-recovery-losing-momentum/#entry10238748

Yes but Sterling/Dollar ratio is part of the GBP THB exchange rate.

[chiang mai]

Which is why I said, "I do accept the USD reference."!

[hhgz]

Up, down, and sideways.

[i claudius]

Listen to me i am always at least right 50% of the time , it will either go up or down .

[chiang mai]

Listen to me i am always at least right 50% of the time , it will either go up or down .

2015 would not be complete without hearing that line from you for the hundredth time, thanks for not disappointing!

[i claudius]

Listen to me i am always at least right 50% of the time , it will either go up or down .

2015 would not be complete without hearing that line from you for the hundredth time, thanks for not disappointing!

I am so glad you remember , i do seem to have that effect on people .

[billd766]

If the financial experts that write for the newspapers are so good at forecasting the exchange rates, why are they still working?

Why don't they form a syndicate, pool their resources and make their own fortunes using their own pooled information?

[chiang mai]

If the financial experts that write for the newspapers are so good at forecasting the exchange rates, why are they still working?

Why don't they form a syndicate, pool their resources and make their own fortunes using their own pooled information?

They're not financial experts, they're journalists who study economics and comment on economic forecasts derived from economic analysis. All the economic analyst does it looks at each of the components that make up a particular picture and tries to assess what might or might not happen, if anything, to each of those components in say 6 or 12 months time and the degree to which it might or might not happen. From all of that comes a series of probabilities. It's complex and it's not easy, because it's clearly in the domain of hypothetical "what if", few people on TVF have much interest in it and even fewer have the bandwidth to be able to consider it, so most people avoid the subject with throw away lines and simple answers, as demonstrated thus far.

[Orac]

Crystal ball stuff but, if I were to make a prediction, it would be that pound and baht will both weaken against the dollar but stay fairly stable against each other.

[i claudius]

If the financial experts that write for the newspapers are so good at forecasting the exchange rates, why are they still working?

Why don't they form a syndicate, pool their resources and make their own fortunes using their own pooled information?

They're not financial experts, they're journalists who study economics and comment on economic forecasts derived from economic analysis. All the economic analyst does it looks at each of the components that make up a particular picture and tries to assess what might or might not happen, if anything, to each of those components in say 6 or 12 months time and the degree to which it might or might not happen. From all of that comes a series of probabilities. It's complex and it's not easy, because it's clearly in the domain of hypothetical "what if", few people on TVF have much interest in it and even fewer have the bandwidth to be able to consider it, so most people avoid the subject with throw away lines and simple answers, as demonstrated thus far.

That is exactly what i do ,and then come to my conclusions,see i am right 50% of the time as well Chiang Mai

[jpinx]

Elections coming up means that the currencies will be volatile anyway. There seems to have been a general trend in weakening during the "uncertainty period" - followed by a surge immediately after the result is known -- totally regardless of who wins Currency markets are driven by traders who are working with professional crystal balls -- as opposed to ourselves, who only have hobbyist balls. The thing to remember is that it is all driven by EMOTION -- not fact

Edited December 28, 2015 by jpinx

[TheCruncher]

Pound over valued !! Hardly !! $1.483 is the weakest its been for some time

A historic rate should not be taken as a guarantee/reference for the future

[chiang mai]

A decent article that explains why UK interest rates will stay lower for longer, likely 2017:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/12069843/What-is-stopping-the-Bank-of-England-from-raising-interest-rates-in-2016.html

[billd766]

If the financial experts that write for the newspapers are so good at forecasting the exchange rates, why are they still working?

Why don't they form a syndicate, pool their resources and make their own fortunes using their own pooled information?

They're not financial experts, they're journalists who study economics and comment on economic forecasts derived from economic analysis. All the economic analyst does it looks at each of the components that make up a particular picture and tries to assess what might or might not happen, if anything, to each of those components in say 6 or 12 months time and the degree to which it might or might not happen. From all of that comes a series of probabilities. It's complex and it's not easy, because it's clearly in the domain of hypothetical "what if", few people on TVF have much interest in it and even fewer have the bandwidth to be able to consider it, so most people avoid the subject with throw away lines and simple answers, as demonstrated thus far.

So basically it is just inspired (or not) guesswork.

Both this and my previous post were not throw away lines demanding simple answers.

[chiang mai]

If the financial experts that write for the newspapers are so good at forecasting the exchange rates, why are they still working?

Why don't they form a syndicate, pool their resources and make their own fortunes using their own pooled information?

They're not financial experts, they're journalists who study economics and comment on economic forecasts derived from economic analysis. All the economic analyst does it looks at each of the components that make up a particular picture and tries to assess what might or might not happen, if anything, to each of those components in say 6 or 12 months time and the degree to which it might or might not happen. From all of that comes a series of probabilities. It's complex and it's not easy, because it's clearly in the domain of hypothetical "what if", few people on TVF have much interest in it and even fewer have the bandwidth to be able to consider it, so most people avoid the subject with throw away lines and simple answers, as demonstrated thus far.

So basically it is just inspired (or not) guesswork.

Both this and my previous post were not throw away lines demanding simple answers.

Of course they were. And analysis and conclusion by qualified individuals who set out to evaluate a precise topic can hardly be called guess work.

[TommyUK1960]

Best to expect the worst then if we get anything better, then it will be a bonus. I think between 47 and 50 to the Baht

[chiang mai]

Finally, somebody who actually thought about the subject, thanks.

[The manic]

If the financial experts that write for the newspapers are so good at forecasting the exchange rates, why are they still working?

Why don't they form a syndicate, pool their resources and make their own fortunes using their own pooled information?

They're not financial experts, they're journalists who study economics and comment on economic forecasts derived from economic analysis. All the economic analyst does it looks at each of the components that make up a particular picture and tries to assess what might or might not happen, if anything, to each of those components in say 6 or 12 months time and the degree to which it might or might not happen. From all of that comes a series of probabilities. It's complex and it's not easy, because it's clearly in the domain of hypothetical "what if", few people on TVF have much interest in it and even fewer have the bandwidth to be able to consider it, so most people avoid the subject with throw away lines and simple answers, as demonstrated thus far.

So basically it is just inspired (or not) guesswork.

Both this and my previous post were not throw away lines demanding simple answers.

Medical journalists do not perform surgery or dispense medicine yet they in their own way have their own expertise and medical knowledge - As it happens some financial journalists have invested on the basis of their insights and made money - Robbie Burns for example.

Edited December 28, 2015 by The manic

[flossiebear]

Usual situation where humans are desperate to control things and do there crystal ball analysts . You can only predict on current situation , most of everything else is beyond our control.

[billd766]

If the financial experts that write for the newspapers are so good at forecasting the exchange rates, why are they still working?

Why don't they form a syndicate, pool their resources and make their own fortunes using their own pooled information?

They're not financial experts, they're journalists who study economics and comment on economic forecasts derived from economic analysis. All the economic analyst does it looks at each of the components that make up a particular picture and tries to assess what might or might not happen, if anything, to each of those components in say 6 or 12 months time and the degree to which it might or might not happen. From all of that comes a series of probabilities. It's complex and it's not easy, because it's clearly in the domain of hypothetical "what if", few people on TVF have much interest in it and even fewer have the bandwidth to be able to consider it, so most people avoid the subject with throw away lines and simple answers, as demonstrated thus far.

So basically it is just inspired (or not) guesswork.

Both this and my previous post were not throw away lines demanding simple answers.

Of course they were. And analysis and conclusion by qualified individuals who set out to evaluate a precise topic can hardly be called guess work.

So what you have said in your previous post is quote

"All the economic analyst does it looks at each of the components that make up a particular picture and tries to assess what might or might not happen, if anything, to each of those components in say 6 or 12 months time and the degree to which it might or might not happen. From all of that comes a series of probabilities. It's complex and it's not easy, because it's clearly in the domain of hypothetical "what if". "

To me and probably many others it is simply guesswork.

A scenario for you.

Yesterday I rode my motorbike 65 km to Khampaeng Phet and back.

1 What if a dog had run out in front of me?

2 What if a car overtook somebody and knocked me off my motorbike?

3 What is I had a tyre blow out at speed and I came off?

Now if I had spent time analysing those options I would have come up with 3 choices.

1 Stay at home and don't ride my motorbike.

2 Take the pickup truck instead as I would have more protection.

3 Ride the motorbike and tell myself if something happens, then it happens.

There is little different in choosing my options than all these learned journalists doing the same thing with financial forecasts. The exchange rates will go up, go down or stay the same. That is their 3 choices and some will get it right most of the time, some of the time or only a little of the time.

In my case I took option #3 and had no problem.

[OJAS]

The outcome of the EU referendum may well have a significant impact as far as the GBP is concerned. Remember the GBP plummeted in the run-up to the Scottish referendum but recovered afterwards.

As regards the THB, who knows what a third straight year of military rule might bring?

[chiang mai]

They're not financial experts, they're journalists who study economics and comment on economic forecasts derived from economic analysis. All the economic analyst does it looks at each of the components that make up a particular picture and tries to assess what might or might not happen, if anything, to each of those components in say 6 or 12 months time and the degree to which it might or might not happen. From all of that comes a series of probabilities. It's complex and it's not easy, because it's clearly in the domain of hypothetical "what if", few people on TVF have much interest in it and even fewer have the bandwidth to be able to consider it, so most people avoid the subject with throw away lines and simple answers, as demonstrated thus far.

So basically it is just inspired (or not) guesswork.

Both this and my previous post were not throw away lines demanding simple answers.

Of course they were. And analysis and conclusion by qualified individuals who set out to evaluate a precise topic can hardly be called guess work.

So what you have said in your previous post is quote

"All the economic analyst does it looks at each of the components that make up a particular picture and tries to assess what might or might not happen, if anything, to each of those components in say 6 or 12 months time and the degree to which it might or might not happen. From all of that comes a series of probabilities. It's complex and it's not easy, because it's clearly in the domain of hypothetical "what if". "

To me and probably many others it is simply guesswork.

A scenario for you.

Yesterday I rode my motorbike 65 km to Khampaeng Phet and back.

1 What if a dog had run out in front of me?

2 What if a car overtook somebody and knocked me off my motorbike?

3 What is I had a tyre blow out at speed and I came off?

Now if I had spent time analysing those options I would have come up with 3 choices.

1 Stay at home and don't ride my motorbike.

2 Take the pickup truck instead as I would have more protection.

3 Ride the motorbike and tell myself if something happens, then it happens.

There is little different in choosing my options than all these learned journalists doing the same thing with financial forecasts. The exchange rates will go up, go down or stay the same. That is their 3 choices and some will get it right most of the time, some of the time or only a little of the time.

In my case I took option #3 and had no problem.

The fact is Bill that you're neither trained nor equipped to undertake the analysis you mapped out, to a sufficient level to be able to arrive at a supportable conclusion, instead you leave it to chance which yet another easy answer. And whilst it's fascinating not to read about motorbikes, dogs and people being correct 50% of the time, I'm really not interested in any of those things. so rather than listen to more nonsense I'll simply ask the mods to close this thread, yet again, trying to sensibly discuss any aspect of forex or economics on TVF proves far too much for most.

[metisdead]

As it seems the responses are not on topic and at request of OP, this topic is now closed.