Major real estate slump or just slack brokers

[asiamint]

Hi

Trying to get a rough idea what land prices are worth in the koa tao, Milford Golf haven area, about 12 km south of hua hin.

Had sai noi beach and Khao Tao village are just around the corner and the land(4 rai,chanote) backs onto Milford golf course with sea view. In my mind one of the best upmarket(potential) areas in Thailand and I've been all over Thailand.

After being in Europe we decided to put it up for sale at the beginning of 2015

5 different estate agents visited the land and all advised between 10 and 12 million

The last price I could confirm in that immediate area was the land below us which sold for 2.8 million a rai back in 2007(the end of the Shin money printing bubble), so with this being the beginning of 2015 I thought that a reasonable price to begin with. was 12 million for 4 rai

After 6 months, not one person/company interested at all, not even one inquiry at 12 million

So as any reasonable person would do I dropped the price to 8 million to try and discover the price as I was getting the feeling the estate agents in hua hin are living in dreamland as far as current real prices go and combine that with local villages/long term landholders who always have a biased view of what they believe their land is worth

No takers at 8 million , but had a few inquires with nothing solid at all

Having lived in samui back in the 90's, Phuket in early 2000's I saw land prices move up sharply and this area of hua hin has all the attributes, so it would seem inconceivable for land prices to not do the same at some point. The very fact its within a 2 hour drive of Bangkok and the best area bar none in that driving range it seems the Thai's must be suffering a heavier downturn than the media is reporting.

I understand there is a downturn in exports, but the lower oil prices should be helping Thailand counter- act that. Also I know Thai consumers have a heavy debt load but again through history the best locations real estate wise always hold there value and recover in price quicker than the lower priced areas that your typical consumer could afford to buy.

I dropped the price 3 months ago to 6.5 million and still no one serious, strange set of circumstances as real estate agents in hua hin seem to be in a state of denial about the whole situation. The lady to the left of us still has her land for sale at 4 million a rai and the one to the right has a bit more sense thinks theirs is worth 2 million a rai.

No clarity what's so ever, just a mass of different opinions.

Does anyone else have any advice or can recommend a serious, knowledgeable real estate broker, preferable in Bangkok that actually knows the market.

My wife paid 2.7 million for the land back in 2003

Be interesting to get other peoples opinion as I know this area is loved by expat and Thai's alike for good reasons.

Major real estate slump or just slack brokers?

Thanks for reading and any answers you can provide.

[NCC1701A]

you are right about that area, really nice. i am down there all the time.

i found it impossible to buy a condo in HH for some of the same reasons you are running into trying to sell.

No MLS like in the USA where very property for sale is listed with prices on your computer.

no one knows what anything sells for. just what the owner agent says it sold for.

People always have unrealistic ideas about price both buying and selling, but in LOS people flat out lie about what they buy/sold their property for so they don't lose face and look better to their friends. Can't do that in the USA.

Very lazy real estate agents who showed me three condos and then expected me to buy one.

have you tired putting up a huge sign on your property? i see that being done a lot in HH.

a friend told me a expat was selling her property two years ago in Phuket for 25 million, she received one offer of 22 million and turned it down. the latest offer was for this year was for 18 million.

one year ago Sansiri the huge condo developer said HH was over developed and they stopped future construction.

have you tried listing with a upscale agent like Sotheby's?

they have companies that shoot drone videos of your property. it you got a nice shot of the ocean and your land maybe more interest?

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng

Edited December 30, 2015 by NCC1701A

[darrendsd]

Land doesn't sell in a matter of months unless you are very lucky. as you said there is plots of land to your left and right that have not sold, maybe it's just not as desirable as you think? Not having a pop just saying.

I know people who have been trying to sell land on Black Mountain for the last 10 years, which is supposedly one of the more desirable places in HH

There are thousands upon thousands of rai of land for sale in HH and the surrounding areas, this is also something else you must consider

You may be lucky and sell it quick however you must also be prepared for a long wait

[captwdg]

Could you please e-mail me with further information.. I would be very interested in talking to you about this property further.. I can be reached by PM

Edited January 2, 2016 by theoldgit
email removed as per forum rules.

[PattayaPhom]

From BKK its a realistic 3 hours drive not 2, that puts it over the day trippers limit. What facilities are there, what kind of people would want to live there?....Ive been a few times and although a beautiful area, there just isn't anything there.

4 Rai is a large plot, why not split the land into 4x1 Rai plots and sell at 1.4 Mil each, that's 100% profit over 12 years.

Edited December 31, 2015 by PattayaPhom

[swerving]

I have specialised in land sales for the past 12 years and i can tell you that the only people buying land for the last year or so is expats and Thai's. Outsiders are not buying and won't until there is an election.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

You are marketing it the wrong way, estate agents in this country (foreign and Thai) are the laziest people on earth. We sold plots at B 2,6 million per rai west of HH over the last few months. Only three ways work 1. advertisement boards 2. get locals involved in selling the land (3% commission) and 3. LINE, forget estate websites or FB. Just use LINE, its for free and effective.

[1FinickyOne]

I appreciate your frustrations though not uncommon for anyone selling properties anywhere. As mentioned above, lack of MLS service and reliable registry of sales. HH is overbuilt. So many people trying to sell - so much to look at it…

The first RE agents prices seem unrealistic - if you were to drop down to 2x what your wife paid, it would be an ok investment over that time period… though I am still not sure where you would find a buyer and who that would be…

Usually w/owning/selling property, the first thing to be hurt is our expectations… good luck. It is always easier to buy than sell.

[lorbhaim]

My prediction is that due to the low interest rate there has been a peak of property market.

Add this to the current depression in all major economic countries and that interest rate has now just one way - up.

Know this is also happening in Chiang Mai, I prefare to rent not buy. Just a way better deal, until prices drop farthere.

[TheCruncher]

you are right about that area, really nice. i am down there all the time.

i found it impossible to buy a condo in HH for some of the same reasons you are running into trying to sell.

No MLS like in the USA where very property for sale is listed with prices on your computer.

no one knows what anything sells for. just what the owner agent says it sold for.

People always have unrealistic ideas about price both buying and selling, but in LOS people flat out lie about what they buy/sold their property for so they don't lose face and look better to their friends. Can't do that in the USA.

Very lazy real estate agents who showed me three condos and then expected me to buy one.

have you tired putting up a huge sign on your property? i see that being done a lot in HH.

a friend told me a expat was selling her property two years ago in Phuket for 25 million, she received one offer of 22 million and turned it down. the latest offer was for this year was for 18 million.

one year ago Sansiri the huge condo developer said HH was over developed and they stopped future construction.

have you tried listing with a upscale agent like Sotheby's?

they have companies that shoot drone videos of your property. it you got a nice shot of the ocean and your land maybe more interest?

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng

but in LOS people flat out lie about what they buy/sold their property for so they don't lose face and look better to their friends.

Never more truer words spoken.

I bought my land 7 years ago East of Pattaya at 950K/ Rai.

Around the same time a charity purchased a 4 Rai plot very close to me, and everyone in the neighborhood believes that they paid 2.5 Million/Rai for the land.

Though the charity has an open accounting and has all the details of the project published on their website, for everyone to see, and it shows they paid 910K/Rai.

Guess what, now everyone won't settle for less than 3 Million/Rai and several asking for 4 Million, but since I purchased my land I'm not aware of single sale.

[JOC]

My prediction is that due to the low interest rate there has been a peak of property market.

Add this to the current depression in all major economic countries and that interest rate has now just one way - up.

Know this is also happening in Chiang Mai, I prefare to rent not buy. Just a way better deal, until prices drop farthere.

Getting so tired of the "better to rent" mantra..............

No it is not !!

Bought 3 houses here (2 rentals), paid 5.3 M, 3.9 M and 2.5 M respectively, 11, 9 and 1 year ago

If I priced those units to sell quick (6 months) I would get 10 M, 12 M (on the beach) and 3 M respectively.

Not to mention the 7 rai I bought overlooking Black Mountain Golf Course, paid 120.000 a rai (bought before the golf course became a reality), will probably be an easy sell at 2,5 M/rai.

No it is not better to rent !!

[JimHuaHin]

My opinions, for what they are worth.

There is a huge over supply of land and housing (new and established) on the market in Hua Hin and Pran Buri Districts, most at over inflated prices.

Sansiri have built several condos in my area over recent years. Most have been sold to speculators in Bangkok, and are thus unoccupied. Huge over supply of condos in the Cha Am - Hua Hin area.

I reside in an estate about 400 metres from the beach, south of Hua Hin. Average land prices in the area are about Baht 100 million per rai, but no buyers in the past 3-4 years.

4 Western style houses in my estate of 10 houses have been on the market for 4-6 years at Baht 7-8 million each; none have sold, and in that period there have been about 10 people inspect the houses.

I have seen land about 10 kms south of Hua Hin and about 1 km from the beach for sale at about Baht 1-2 million per rai, and some of that land is moving.

Also, I was introduced to a Thai builder of "luxury" houses (through long-term close Thai friends), and have inspected 3 of his completed houses. Excellent workmanship (excuse the sexist language), great quality. He quoted me building costs about one-quarter that I had been quoted by some farang builders in town.

The high Thai Baht is putting off many farang buyers.

Personally, I waiting for the Thai Baht to fall and the Thai economy to slip further backwards before making a purchase here.

[medina21]

HH reminds me of the Costa del Sol before the bubble burst. Lots of agents, furniture shops and developments. It's way over-built. I can't understand why anyone would want to buy a place in one of these mega-projects. Lot's of Bangkok speculators, which means lots of empty units. It's the same story in many condo projects in Bangkok. Just do a 'light' count at night. The lack of an established resale market means that it's extremely difficult to shift second-hand units. I would only buy in a building where the majority of purchasers were owner-occupiers. If the market collapses, the speculators will stop paying their service charges and the maintenance will suffer.

[thaiguzzi]

Not related to HH, but where i am in Nakon Nowhere in NE Isaan, land prices just keep going to unbelievable levels. In town, in city, just up, up, up. And they are selling. Agricultural land has tailed off, and possibly even dropped slightly in 2015.

[Psychic]

If I had to speculate, Thai's aren't that interested in investing that much money for land that will become a weekend retreat from the centre of their universe.

So you're left with expats and foreigners and developers.

Expats realise the the implications of buying a parcel of land like this. They can't legally own it and disposal, as you're finding out is a nightmare.

Foreigners will soonsoon find out that unless they're married to a Thai that there is also no legal avenue to own land and the erosion of a lot of foreign currencies relative to the baht makes a bad situation worse.

So your left with developers who are fully aware of what they can pay for land.

I was amazed when I came here at how much vacant land there was. I now realise why.

Unfortunately, until the laws are changed to permit foreign ownership (and being from Vancouver and seeing the way foreign money can inflate prices beyond the reach of locals I understand the reluctance of the government to go that route) I can't see much changing.

[lorbhaim]

My prediction is that due to the low interest rate there has been a peak of property market.

Add this to the current depression in all major economic countries and that interest rate has now just one way - up.

Know this is also happening in Chiang Mai, I prefare to rent not buy. Just a way better deal, until prices drop farthere.

Getting so tired of the "better to rent" mantra..............

No it is not !!

Bought 3 houses here (2 rentals), paid 5.3 M, 3.9 M and 2.5 M respectively, 11, 9 and 1 year ago

If I priced those units to sell quick (6 months) I would get 10 M, 12 M (on the beach) and 3 M respectively.

Not to mention the 7 rai I bought overlooking Black Mountain Golf Course, paid 120.000 a rai (bought before the golf course became a reality), will probably be an easy sell at 2,5 M/rai.

No it is not better to rent !!

It depends:

If you are speculating, than I'll quote my grand ma - "you count the money down the stairs".

If you are a falang that consider living here long time - RENT!

[gemguy]

My prediction is that due to the low interest rate there has been a peak of property market.

Add this to the current depression in all major economic countries and that interest rate has now just one way - up.

Know this is also happening in Chiang Mai, I prefare to rent not buy. Just a way better deal, until prices drop farthere.

Getting so tired of the "better to rent" mantra..............

No it is not !!

Bought 3 houses here (2 rentals), paid 5.3 M, 3.9 M and 2.5 M respectively, 11, 9 and 1 year ago

If I priced those units to sell quick (6 months) I would get 10 M, 12 M (on the beach) and 3 M respectively.

Not to mention the 7 rai I bought overlooking Black Mountain Golf Course, paid 120.000 a rai (bought before the golf course became a reality), will probably be an easy sell at 2,5 M/rai.

No it is not better to rent !!

Famous last words until you get ripped off or set up or just given the usual run around by any number or persons or government entities.

All is good ...until it turns bad....and happens all the time ...

So tell us what makes you supposedly immune to any of the negatives.

Just wondering.

Cheers

[JOC]

My prediction is that due to the low interest rate there has been a peak of property market.

Add this to the current depression in all major economic countries and that interest rate has now just one way - up.

Know this is also happening in Chiang Mai, I prefare to rent not buy. Just a way better deal, until prices drop farthere.

Getting so tired of the "better to rent" mantra..............

No it is not !!

Bought 3 houses here (2 rentals), paid 5.3 M, 3.9 M and 2.5 M respectively, 11, 9 and 1 year ago

If I priced those units to sell quick (6 months) I would get 10 M, 12 M (on the beach) and 3 M respectively.

Not to mention the 7 rai I bought overlooking Black Mountain Golf Course, paid 120.000 a rai (bought before the golf course became a reality), will probably be an easy sell at 2,5 M/rai.

No it is not better to rent !!

Famous last words until you get ripped off or set up or just given the usual run around by any number or persons or government entities.

All is good ...until it turns bad....and happens all the time ...

So tell us what makes you supposedly immune to any of the negatives.

Just wondering.

Cheers

>>So tell us what makes you supposedly immune to any of the negatives.<<

First of all I know Thai law very well. My Thai wife is a lawyer, and even she admits, that I know Thai law better than her. So the authorities will not be able to do any "run around" with me !!

Secondly I don't listen to all the bar stool nonsense, you hear from fellow expat "experts"

Yes the goalposts can be moved, which can change the situation. But that will not change the facts, that I have had 12 very good years here already.

Yes the world is dangerous place, but if you don't buy the lottery ticket you can't win !!

[JimHuaHin]

HH reminds me of the Costa del Sol before the bubble burst. Lots of agents, furniture shops and developments. It's way over-built. I can't understand why anyone would want to buy a place in one of these mega-projects. Lot's of Bangkok speculators, which means lots of empty units. It's the same story in many condo projects in Bangkok. Just do a 'light' count at night. The lack of an established resale market means that it's extremely difficult to shift second-hand units. I would only buy in a building where the majority of purchasers were owner-occupiers. If the market collapses, the speculators will stop paying their service charges and the maintenance will suffer.

Totally agree.

Spot on.

[medina21]

JimHuaHin,

Glad you agree. Pattaya is exactly the same. And there seems to be way too much building in Chiang Mai.

[inzman]

My prediction is that due to the low interest rate there has been a peak of property market.

Add this to the current depression in all major economic countries and that interest rate has now just one way - up.

Know this is also happening in Chiang Mai, I prefare to rent not buy. Just a way better deal, until prices drop farthere.

Getting so tired of the "better to rent" mantra..............

No it is not !!

Bought 3 houses here (2 rentals), paid 5.3 M, 3.9 M and 2.5 M respectively, 11, 9 and 1 year ago

If I priced those units to sell quick (6 months) I would get 10 M, 12 M (on the beach) and 3 M respectively.

Not to mention the 7 rai I bought overlooking Black Mountain Golf Course, paid 120.000 a rai (bought before the golf course became a reality), will probably be an easy sell at 2,5 M/rai.

No it is not better to rent !!

Famous last words until you get ripped off or set up or just given the usual run around by any number or persons or government entities.

All is good ...until it turns bad....and happens all the time ...

So tell us what makes you supposedly immune to any of the negatives.

Just wondering.

Cheers

>>So tell us what makes you supposedly immune to any of the negatives.<<

First of all I know Thai law very well. My Thai wife is a lawyer, and even she admits, that I know Thai law better than her. So the authorities will not be able to do any "run around" with me !!

Secondly I don't listen to all the bar stool nonsense, you hear from fellow expat "experts"

Yes the goalposts can be moved, which can change the situation. But that will not change the facts, that I have had 12 very good years here already.

Yes the world is dangerous place, but if you don't buy the lottery ticket you can't win !!

don't matter if you can recite the law verbatim. The law here is not enforced. He who has the most friends and money always wins. Your a fool if you think you can abide by the "law" you might have forgotten where you are. As they say, your not in Kansas anymore.

[GOLDBUGGY]

Did you try breaking your 4 Rai into 4 parcels of land of 1 Ra each?

Being next to a Golf Course and the Sea, the most logical use for this land is an Executive Style House which 1 Rai is large enough for. Buying 3 extra Rai and then still having to build a house doesn't make much sense to me. Maybe as Commercial Property or a Hotel or Resort they may want that, but in small plots they can still get all 4 if they want. . .

[gemguy]

My prediction is that due to the low interest rate there has been a peak of property market.

Add this to the current depression in all major economic countries and that interest rate has now just one way - up.

Know this is also happening in Chiang Mai, I prefare to rent not buy. Just a way better deal, until prices drop farthere.

Getting so tired of the "better to rent" mantra..............

No it is not !!

Bought 3 houses here (2 rentals), paid 5.3 M, 3.9 M and 2.5 M respectively, 11, 9 and 1 year ago

If I priced those units to sell quick (6 months) I would get 10 M, 12 M (on the beach) and 3 M respectively.

Not to mention the 7 rai I bought overlooking Black Mountain Golf Course, paid 120.000 a rai (bought before the golf course became a reality), will probably be an easy sell at 2,5 M/rai.

No it is not better to rent !!

Famous last words until you get ripped off or set up or just given the usual run around by any number or persons or government entities.

All is good ...until it turns bad....and happens all the time ...

So tell us what makes you supposedly immune to any of the negatives.

Just wondering.

Cheers

>>So tell us what makes you supposedly immune to any of the negatives.<<

First of all I know Thai law very well. My Thai wife is a lawyer, and even she admits, that I know Thai law better than her. So the authorities will not be able to do any "run around" with me !!

Secondly I don't listen to all the bar stool nonsense, you hear from fellow expat "experts"

Yes the goalposts can be moved, which can change the situation. But that will not change the facts, that I have had 12 very good years here already.

Yes the world is dangerous place, but if you don't buy the lottery ticket you can't win !!

Good for you....but you are still vulnerable as everyone else.

Everyone claims they have a connection while all too often those "connections" can and often do become a liability.

You said : So the authorities will not be able to do any "run around" with me !!

Again, Famous last words.

The authorities and or government entities here in Thailand will do anything they please with you ...if and when they really want to or need to...while either way you are still vulnerable, in the end

That is the annoying part about living here in Thailand.

Something you build up for a long time....be it 5 or 10 or 20 years or more can easily enough be swept out from under you by underhanded means and people of influence and power...including the police...here in Thailand.

When that happens to people then the people with cash money in a offshore banking jurisdiction are better off than people with land and property holdings.

Just saying

Cheers

[PattayaPhom]

HH reminds me of the Costa del Sol before the bubble burst. Lots of agents, furniture shops and developments. It's way over-built. I can't understand why anyone would want to buy a place in one of these mega-projects. Lot's of Bangkok speculators, which means lots of empty units. It's the same story in many condo projects in Bangkok. Just do a 'light' count at night. The lack of an established resale market means that it's extremely difficult to shift second-hand units. I would only buy in a building where the majority of purchasers were owner-occupiers. If the market collapses, the speculators will stop paying their service charges and the maintenance will suffer.

Totally agree.

Spot on.

I wouldn't disagree there is much over development in parts of Thailand however the"light at night count" means and proves absolutely nothing. Many condos are used at weekends or holidays only or letting purposes....how many people when on holiday stay at home in the evenings....they go out, hence no lights. If you look at the Takiab area of HH and the condos there...not many lights on but units all owned and not for sale.

[TheCruncher]

HH reminds me of the Costa del Sol before the bubble burst. Lots of agents, furniture shops and developments. It's way over-built. I can't understand why anyone would want to buy a place in one of these mega-projects. Lot's of Bangkok speculators, which means lots of empty units. It's the same story in many condo projects in Bangkok. Just do a 'light' count at night. The lack of an established resale market means that it's extremely difficult to shift second-hand units. I would only buy in a building where the majority of purchasers were owner-occupiers. If the market collapses, the speculators will stop paying their service charges and the maintenance will suffer.

Totally agree.

Spot on.

I wouldn't disagree there is much over development in parts of Thailand however the"light at night count" means and proves absolutely nothing. Many condos are used at weekends or holidays only or letting purposes....how many people when on holiday stay at home in the evenings....they go out, hence no lights. If you look at the Takiab area of HH and the condos there...not many lights on but units all owned and not for sale.

And of course the majority of the " no light" condos are condo's that are purchased by investors with the intention to flip before completion, which has been a disappointment so far, but at the end of the day they still have to find a buyer.

And as long as the banks don't pay interests on savings, that isn't a big deal, but watch when the interests start to rise or better returns can be get elsewhere

[JimHuaHin]

Totally agree.

Spot on.

I wouldn't disagree there is much over development in parts of Thailand however the"light at night count" means and proves absolutely nothing. Many condos are used at weekends or holidays only or letting purposes....how many people when on holiday stay at home in the evenings....they go out, hence no lights. If you look at the Takiab area of HH and the condos there...not many lights on but units all owned and not for sale.

I am not sure which part of Khao Ta Kiab you are referring to, but, in my area, where there are 3 condos (2 completed in the past 2 years) within close sight of where I live, I have never ever seen any lights on, any doors or windows open, no sign of occupancy in 90-95% of the condos in the 3 years I have lived in the area. I have a couple of friends living in 2 of the condos, and they have reported never ever seeing anyone (other than staff) on their floors.

I agree with earlier comments that most are owned by speculators and are permanently vacant. Some are weekenders for Bangkok Thais, some are owned and occupied by farangs, and others are rented out on a long-term or short-term basis. But the vast majority, 90-95% are permanently unoccupied.

[medina21]

The 'light count' is not scientific, but if you visit a condo over a couple of weeks, on different days, you will be able to form a good idea of occupancy. You can also talk to the Juristic Office. I looked at a building in Charoen Nakhon Road, Bangkok a short while ago. The manager told me that only 200 out of the 398 units were actually occupied. The building is around 4 years old. I'm not surprised by what JimHuaHin reports for Khao Ta Kiab.

[NCC1701A]

The 'light count' is not scientific, but if you visit a condo over a couple of weeks, on different days, you will be able to form a good idea of occupancy. You can also talk to the Juristic Office. I looked at a building in Charoen Nakhon Road, Bangkok a short while ago. The manager told me that only 200 out of the 398 units were actually occupied. The building is around 4 years old. I'm not surprised by what JimHuaHin reports for Khao Ta Kiab.

i have lived in Khao Ta Kiab for two years and walk past all these condos down here everyday and believe me, the condo buildings are frickin' empty.

and a good thing too. the parking lots for all these building cannot support a car for every unit.

and the traffic is bad enough. impossible current roads in Khao Ta Kiab could support even 50% occupancy.

Edited January 4, 2016 by NCC1701A

[tlock]

Could you please e-mail me with further information.. I would be very interested in talking to you about this property further.. I can be reached by PM

I think the tactic of posting classified ads under the guise of a thread on popular web forums is a great way to find potential buyers!

[loonytune]

this current last debacle and aftermath has convinced me that i am NEVER going to buy any type of real estate in thailand. immediately before i was considering it. i am very long term here. am guessing that many see similarly,