2015 Thai export growth makes 6-yr record low

[webfact]

2015 Thai export growth makes 6-yr record low

BANGKOK, 27 January 2016 (NNT) - The Ministry of Commerce has reported that Thai export growth in 2015 made a 6-year record low mainly due to the sluggish global economy and decreasing oil price.

Mr.Somkiat Trirattanaphan, a Ministry of Commerce director, said the value of 2015 Thai exports was 214 billion USD or a -5.78% negative growth. It was the lowest in six years since 2009 when the export growth was -14.3%.

The director added that lower exports such as oil products, chemicals and plastic resin led to overall drop in industrial products and decreasing agricultural product prices.

However, the director said the 2015 Thai export growth contracted less that the global average. Thailand's competitiveness was not lower despite the export contraction since the country still maintained its market share in important markets, said the director.

Thailand's top exports like automobiles and parts have a tendency to increase. The ministry therefore maintains the 2016 export growth target at 5%.

-- NNT 2016-01-27

[jaywalker]

And....yesterday this:

Thailand records first trade surplus in five years
By Nopparat Chaichalearmmongkol

[soalbundy]

And....yesterday this:

Thailand records first trade surplus in five years

By Nopparat Chaichalearmmongkol

That is possible because imports fell as well

[soalbundy]

The whole world is in deep doo doo,not just Thailand

[Srikcir]

"Thailand's top exports like automobiles and parts have a tendency to increase."

Except throughout 2015 export of automobile and auto parts decreased. Tendencies have a tendency to be erratic and not practically predictable. Like a 200-year storm that occurs two years in a row.

For 2016 Thailand faces some serious problems with auto and auto part sales:

1. The tax hike on automobiles starting Jan. 1, 2016 will slow domestic demand.

2. Rising household debt will slow domestic demand.

3. Higher property taxes will slow domestic demand.

4. Based on 17% lower leased vehicles in 2015, fleet leasing will reduce purchases in 2016.

5. Lower farming incomes due to droughts and falling market prices.

6. Relocation of production bases for electronics products away from Thailand began in 2015 has begun to drop output of certain products, such as hard disk drives, automobiles, televisions and jewelry.

7. Thailand has been ignoring Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal negotiations. "Mexico has called for a TPP 'rule of origins' that would prohibit TPP members from sourcing products from non-TPP countries. TPP member Japan buys lots of automobile parts from Thailand. If the TPP's rule of origins kicks in, Japan will have to look elsewhere for automobile parts suppliers and shift its investments in this sector away from Thailand.

The 2016 export growth target at 5% is a fantasy. The Bank of Thailand predicted flat export growth for 2016.

[rickudon]

Toyota actually said they expected a 9% drop in sales for the Thai automobile industry in 2016 ..... so where is the increase going to come from?

Just a wish list.

[asdecas]

"Thailand's top exports like automobiles and parts have a tendency to increase."

Except throughout 2015 export of automobile and auto parts decreased. Tendencies have a tendency to be erratic and not practically predictable. Like a 200-year storm that occurs two years in a row.

For 2016 Thailand faces some serious problems with auto and auto part sales:

1. The tax hike on automobiles starting Jan. 1, 2016 will slow domestic demand.

2. Rising household debt will slow domestic demand.

3. Higher property taxes will slow domestic demand.

4. Based on 17% lower leased vehicles in 2015, fleet leasing will reduce purchases in 2016.

5. Lower farming incomes due to droughts and falling market prices.

6. Relocation of production bases for electronics products away from Thailand began in 2015 has begun to drop output of certain products, such as hard disk drives, automobiles, televisions and jewelry.

7. Thailand has been ignoring Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal negotiations. "Mexico has called for a TPP 'rule of origins' that would prohibit TPP members from sourcing products from non-TPP countries. TPP member Japan buys lots of automobile parts from Thailand. If the TPP's rule of origins kicks in, Japan will have to look elsewhere for automobile parts suppliers and shift its investments in this sector away from Thailand.

The 2016 export growth target at 5% is a fantasy. The Bank of Thailand predicted flat export growth for 2016.

Figures for 2016 will inevitably be far worse than last year's; yes, it is in part a function of the well-known global debt problem, but there are factors closer to home which will continue to weigh on the Thai economy. Among them I would cite the political problem, which is currently suppressing a good deal of conflict but which in my opinion is no nearer to solving than two years ago; the lack of progress across a broad spectrum of the Thai landscape - failures in education, in care for the environment, in conservation, in human rights; the inability, despite some cosmetic efforts, to rein in corruption, the tendency to blame others instead of accepting responsibility oneself.

The Thai economy has come a long way in the thirty years I have lived here, but it feels very much as if a plateau has been reached in the last few years. There is a danger that the country is reaching the other side of said plateau and may start downward if the problems cited above are not tackled with urgency, resolution and tenacity - traits which one does not normally associate with Thais, bless 'em.

[bangon04]

Ford should pull out now before it gets too expensive....

[robblok]

Why are they calling it growth when there is no growth, but a decline ?

Hoping that some people will thing there is still growth but less ?

[lucky11]

And....yesterday this:

Thailand records first trade surplus in five years

By Nopparat Chaichalearmmongkol

That is possible because imports fell as well

Don't spoil his moment of mirth. He clearly isn't an economist!!

[lucky11]

Why are they calling it growth when there is no growth, but a decline ?

Hoping that some people will thing there is still growth but less ?

They did state 'negative' growth and put minus signs in front of the figures - what more do you expect them to do when quoting growth figures?

[robblok]

Why are they calling it growth when there is no growth, but a decline ?

Hoping that some people will thing there is still growth but less ?

They did state 'negative' growth and put minus signs in front of the figures - what more do you expect them to do when quoting growth figures?

I would expect them to say growth contracted or decline of growth.. 6 year record low sounds like there is still growth but lower as usual. Might be just me.. but when something is not growing we call it a decline. Just find the term growth when there is no growth strange.