Is it too late to stop the Donald Trump machine?

[Publicus]

Let's look at how the oddsmakers are making out things since the Wisconsin primary.

Las Vegas oddsmakers are moving away from Trump being the heavy favorite for the R party nomination to his being only slightly favored. So are the oddsmakers in London and Dublin.

Oddsmakers have also moved toward Ted Cruz although Cruz still has the odds against him. Kasich's odds have improved though he remains a distant to Trump. Also true in London and Dublin.

Today's odds in Las Vegas as to which of the three will be the R party nominee/candidate for Potus in the November election:

Trump today continues to have the odds in favor but now only slightly so, 10-11 which convert to the percentage probability of 52.3%. This is remarkably down since the middle of March when, after the two big Tuesday sets of primaries Trump had odds of 1-4, or 80%. Trump has in fact taken a nosedive in the oddsmaking on who will be the nominee. (Maybe Trump Air One has an engine fire.)

Cruz has improved in the odds but still has ground to make up. Cruz today is at 7-4, which converts to the probability percentage of 34.7%. This is quite the improvement over two weeks ago when the odds on Cruz getting the nomination were 7-2, or 22.2% percentage probability.

Kasich has odds today of 6-1 or the percentage of 14.2%. Two weeks ago Kasich had odds of 7-1, or 12.5%.

Paul Ryan today has odds of 10-1 or the probability percentage of 9%. Two weeks ago Ryan had been at 20-1, or 4.8%. At around this time last year when Ryan announced he wasn't running his odds had been at 16-1 or 5.8%. Ryan wants it and he is the convention chairman who'll be up there at the podium declaring his interpretation of the votes and the application of the rules once they're adopted (with 'guidance' from the chairman). Then there are the times we don't see him up there.

Nothing else has changed much in the oddsmaking.

Democratic party nominee:

HRC has 1-8 odds or the percentage probability of 92.5% (down one percentage point).

Bernie has odds of 5-1 or 16.6% to be the nominee. (plus four percentage points)

To Be Elected Potus November 8th:

HRC has odds of 2-5 or the probability percentage of 71.4% (same-same, no recent change)

Donald Trump has odds of 11-2 or the probability of 15.3% (minus five percent after Wisconsin)

Bernie has odds at 7-1 or the probability of 12.5% (plus six percentage points after Wisconsin)

Cruz has odds of 9-1 or the probability of 10% (plus five points after WI)

Kasich 20-1 (4.7%)

Ryan 33-1 (2.9%)

Winning Party in November, no names:

Democratic Party to win has odds of 1-3 or the percentage probability of 75%

Republican Party to win has odds of 9-4 or the probability of 30%

Independent is at 50-1 (1.9%)

As to the last futures market stat, winning party, the Democratic party should be at the disadvantage of trying to elect another D for Potus. It happened only once directly since before the FDR presidency, in 1988 when GHW Bush won a third Reagan term. The particulars of this election however not only favor it occurring again, but the odds heavily favor it, this time for the D party.

[grumpyoldman]

.........and good for that. We don't need any more of this "trickle down" economic nonsense, nor do we need to create wars to fuel the defense industry, nor do we need nutbags saying we need to create more American jobs while his own business has his name brand clothing made in China.

We need to crunch the bipartisanship and get some things done, that's why I think the country seeing this GOP fiasco will look to the Democratic party in the next round of Congressionals which will put the country on a better course than the standstill that is Democratic President vs. Republican Congress who would prefer to flat out thwart then get anything accomplished.

Gone Old Party and the right whingers, go away, you're useless.

[boomerangutang]

How hard would it be to find some seamstresses with sewing machines, to sew ties in the USA? Particularly if you're a multi-billionaire, you have agents who can search around for, or set-up a room full of workers, and pay them minimum wage. Apparently Mr. Premier Deal Maker can't arrange that, so he has to continue to get his ties sewn in China. Even if he lost money on selling those silly ties, he would be smart to get Americans to make them - for his image quotient, and so he doesn't appear like a dyed-in-the-wool hypocrite when he keeps making faces and shouting about how America is such a big loser for using Chinese workers.

[GinBoy2]

Right, we've all seen the result at Wisconsin. It's all over for Trump.

Now then, Ted Cruz, you're the man. Lead the Republicans. And let's now have a SENSIBLE debate between the Democrats and the Republicans.

I'm sorry, are you being sarcastic? Ted Cruz, leader of the Republicans? SENSIBLE debate? He's a crazy wingnut and disliked by everyone. He's also very creepy.

Yeah Ted, lead the Republicans...right off a cliff.

Ole Ted is more dangerous than Trump. He's slightly smarter than Trump but he actually believes the invisible people telling what to do. Fortunately, he doesn't have a prayer. (Oh snap! Did you see what I did there? )

Democrats have nothing to worry about with these two or any of their other idiots for that matter.

I'm doubling down on an earlier post, in that I think a Cruz nomination, and what I believe would be his defeat, would be the best possible outcome, not only for the GOP, but the Republic in general.

For better or worse, we live with a two party system, not a multiparty proportional representative system, where you can get to elect extreme views, or even single issue parties that ultimately form coalitions.

For us two parties need to be just either side of the middle ground of popular opinion.

What we have seen on both sides, but on a much greater scale on the GOP side is within certain wings driving their parties to the extremes.

The zealots have decided that you can't have a broad church approach, hence there are no moderate Republicians left. And yes I will trot out the cliche, which I believe to be true, that even Reagan wouldn't survive a primary election in today's party.

So the logic has been on the right wing rants, that Romney and McCain lost because they weren't right wing enough! I'll ignore the fact that McCain, for whatever reason got attached to the ultimate winging Palin.

So, let's have Cruz, as pure an extreme right wing choice they could get, and see what happens.

When, as I believe he would, lose, then sanity may return, and drive everyone back to the truth that center ground is where you fight to win in two party system.

Edited April 8, 2016 by GinBoy2

[CousinEddie]

Trump likes to sue.

He is suing people and threatening lawsuits all the time. He threatened to sue Ted Cruz recently for something.

I will predict that he won't get the nomination, file some lawsuits and hold the election hostage.

[Jingthing]

Trump likes to sue.

He is suing people and threatening lawsuits all the time. He threatened to sue Ted Cruz recently for something.

I will predict that he won't get the nomination, file some lawsuits and hold the election hostage.

Yes he won't be nominated but he does not have the power to hold the election hostage. Sure some of his nut case followers may riot. That's what the police are for or perhaps the national guard.

[Publicus]

Right, we've all seen the result at Wisconsin. It's all over for Trump.

Now then, Ted Cruz, you're the man. Lead the Republicans. And let's now have a SENSIBLE debate between the Democrats and the Republicans.

I'm sorry, are you being sarcastic? Ted Cruz, leader of the Republicans? SENSIBLE debate? He's a crazy wingnut and disliked by everyone. He's also very creepy.

Yeah Ted, lead the Republicans...right off a cliff.

Ole Ted is more dangerous than Trump. He's slightly smarter than Trump but he actually believes the invisible people telling what to do. Fortunately, he doesn't have a prayer. (Oh snap! Did you see what I did there? )

Democrats have nothing to worry about with these two or any of their other idiots for that matter.

I'm doubling down on an earlier post, in that I think a Cruz nomination, and what I believe would be his defeat, would be the best possible outcome, not only for the GOP, but the Republic in general.

For better or worse, we live with a two party system, not a multiparty proportional representative system, where you can get to elect extreme views, or even single issue parties that ultimately form coalitions.

For us two parties need to be just either side of the middle ground of popular opinion.

What we have seen on both sides, but on a much greater scale on the GOP side is within certain wings driving their parties to the extremes.

The zealots have decided that you can't have a broad church approach, hence there are no moderate Republicians left. And yes I will trot out the cliche, which I believe to be true, that even Reagan wouldn't survive a primary election in today's party.

So the logic has been on the right wing rants, that Romney and McCain lost because they weren't right wing enough! I'll ignore the fact that McCain, for whatever reason got attached to the ultimate winging Palin.

So, let's have Cruz, as pure an extreme right wing choice they could get, and see what happens.

When, as I believe he would, lose, then sanity may return, and drive everyone back to the truth that center ground is where you fight to win in two party system.

The nature of American politics has changed.

The center holds. The right sector has expanded. The left of center has expanded. The center has shifted to the left and it is the new middle.

Evidence the new center is holding is the polling that shows HRC defeating the far right (Cruz Trump) and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio presently leading HRC for Potus. Hillary Clinton is left of center and John Kasich is right of center. Each is either side of the new American political center, more and less.

The Republican Party is fractured and fragmenting. We'll need to see into the Convention and in the critical one to two weeks after it if the Party will divide in a schism, right and extreme right. The traditional Republican Party and then a new Conservative Party. (Whatever the name of the new one.) We may see a breakup during the convention but we may need to wait until the immediate aftermath of the convention to find out either way.

Gone is compromise between the two parties. No middle ground between 'em on issues. All issues. Nothing to negotiate. Nothing to discuss. It's become a parliamentary system of winner take all. Nothing happens across the traditional aisle. It's kill or be killed and take no prisoners.

Voters know as of this election, that if they want anything done they'll need to put the executive and the congress in the hands of the same party. Or, if they want a standoff, split the two branches in the traditional sense and to expect nothing from a divided executive branch and the national legislature. Because nothing happens across the aisle. Absolutely nothing.

Those dayze are gone of bipartisan people and acts in Washington. There's no give and all take. Win-Lose only.

Upon us indefinitely.

[keemapoot]

^@ Publicus, that above analysis is probably as good a look into the crystal ball as anyone right now, but I wonder what would happen (highly unlikely he gets the nomination notwithstanding) if Kasich won the general election?

Publicus wrote:

Voters know as of this election, that if they want anything done they'll need to put the executive and the congress in the hands of the same party. Or, if they want a standoff, split the two branches in the traditional sense and to expect nothing from a divided executive branch and the national legislature. Because nothing happens across the aisle. Absolutely nothing.

By that logic, the most effective government would be for the GOP to retain the Senate majority, and they might without a coat tail effect from a Clinton or Sanders win. I guess under that scenario only, following your logic, the GOP might avoid the apocalypse that awaits them otherwise and get a new lease on life.

So, failing someone right centric (still within that "new center" theory) like Kasich getting nominated, I suppose it is the end of the GOP as we know it.

[CWMcMurray]

Trump has had a rough couple of weeks to be sure ... But wouldn't count out him winning Republican nomination yet..

He is still up by quite a bit in New York, California, Maryland and Pennsylvania

If he wins all of these states this month... Momentum swings back to his side again

Whether you like him or hate him... Those are the facts

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/gop_pres_primary/

Edit... Actually California not till Jun 7, but even so Trump still leading there as well

Edited April 8, 2016 by CWMcMurray

[Jingthing]

No, he DEFINITELY will not make the 1237. He knows that too. He's focusing now on his tactics to win on a later ballot. Very unlikely.

[CWMcMurray]

Very possible he won't , but still mathematically possible

No one can yet say for certain ... Just wishful thinking on both sides at this point

[GinBoy2]

Right, we've all seen the result at Wisconsin. It's all over for Trump.

Now then, Ted Cruz, you're the man. Lead the Republicans. And let's now have a SENSIBLE debate between the Democrats and the Republicans.

I'm sorry, are you being sarcastic? Ted Cruz, leader of the Republicans? SENSIBLE debate? He's a crazy wingnut and disliked by everyone. He's also very creepy.

Yeah Ted, lead the Republicans...right off a cliff.

Ole Ted is more dangerous than Trump. He's slightly smarter than Trump but he actually believes the invisible people telling what to do. Fortunately, he doesn't have a prayer. (Oh snap! Did you see what I did there? )

Democrats have nothing to worry about with these two or any of their other idiots for that matter.

I'm doubling down on an earlier post, in that I think a Cruz nomination, and what I believe would be his defeat, would be the best possible outcome, not only for the GOP, but the Republic in general.

For better or worse, we live with a two party system, not a multiparty proportional representative system, where you can get to elect extreme views, or even single issue parties that ultimately form coalitions.

For us two parties need to be just either side of the middle ground of popular opinion.

What we have seen on both sides, but on a much greater scale on the GOP side is within certain wings driving their parties to the extremes.

The zealots have decided that you can't have a broad church approach, hence there are no moderate Republicians left. And yes I will trot out the cliche, which I believe to be true, that even Reagan wouldn't survive a primary election in today's party.

So the logic has been on the right wing rants, that Romney and McCain lost because they weren't right wing enough! I'll ignore the fact that McCain, for whatever reason got attached to the ultimate winging Palin.

So, let's have Cruz, as pure an extreme right wing choice they could get, and see what happens.

When, as I believe he would, lose, then sanity may return, and drive everyone back to the truth that center ground is where you fight to win in two party system.

The nature of American politics has changed.

The center holds. The right sector has expanded. The left of center has expanded. The center has shifted to the left and it is the new middle.

Evidence the new center is holding is the polling that shows HRC defeating the far right (Cruz Trump) and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio presently leading HRC for Potus. Hillary Clinton is left of center and John Kasich is right of center. Each is either side of the new American political center, more and less.

The Republican Party is fractured and fragmenting. We'll need to see into the Convention and in the critical one to two weeks after it if the Party will divide in a schism, right and extreme right. The traditional Republican Party and then a new Conservative Party. (Whatever the name of the new one.) We may see a breakup during the convention but we may need to wait until the immediate aftermath of the convention to find out either way.

Gone is compromise between the two parties. No middle ground between 'em on issues. All issues. Nothing to negotiate. Nothing to discuss. It's become a parliamentary system of winner take all. Nothing happens across the traditional aisle. It's kill or be killed and take no prisoners.

Voters know as of this election, that if they want anything done they'll need to put the executive and the congress in the hands of the same party. Or, if they want a standoff, split the two branches in the traditional sense and to expect nothing from a divided executive branch and the national legislature. Because nothing happens across the aisle. Absolutely nothing.

Those dayze are gone of bipartisan people and acts in Washington. There's no give and all take. Win-Lose only.

Upon us indefinitely.

I'm always an optimist when it comes to politics.

I think the system has a natural way to re-calibrate when it goes out of kilter. It's happened before, trouble is we see it all in timescale of our own lives.

That's why I think this may be one of those re-calibration points in history, where a massive shift in one party could result in the event of a massive shift of direction for the whole body politic, rather than you suggest that this is an inevitable schism in society

I'm torn as to where I think society is going, left or right. The younger generation are, in general more socially liberal and inclusive, which bodes badly for the long term trajectory of the GOP, 'if' my hoped for re-alignment doesn't happen.

All that being said, I am unsure where the next generation is on government. This generation tends to a me a me me me generation, not so sure they have the same concept of developing a society for the good of all.

So, we all wait with bated breath to watch this comic tragedy unfold, for better or worse, although I'm hoping for the best

[Publicus]

^@ Publicus, that above analysis is probably as good a look into the crystal ball as anyone right now, but I wonder what would happen (highly unlikely he gets the nomination notwithstanding) if Kasich won the general election?

Publicus wrote:

Voters know as of this election, that if they want anything done they'll need to put the executive and the congress in the hands of the same party. Or, if they want a standoff, split the two branches in the traditional sense and to expect nothing from a divided executive branch and the national legislature. Because nothing happens across the aisle. Absolutely nothing.

By that logic, the most effective government would be for the GOP to retain the Senate majority, and they might without a coat tail effect from a Clinton or Sanders win. I guess under that scenario only, following your logic, the GOP might avoid the apocalypse that awaits them otherwise and get a new lease on life.

So, failing someone right centric (still within that "new center" theory) like Kasich getting nominated, I suppose it is the end of the GOP as we know it.

No Republican can win this general election. The party is in a chaos unprecedented in either party. Not only is there no unity now, there hasn't been any unity and there isn't going to be any unity. No single candidate commands the respect of his opponents.

Cruz has more support among former candidates and none of 'em including of course Cruz would lift a finger if it is Trump. Likewise, Trump will walk if it is Cruz. Both will dismiss Kasich if he might prevail.

Kasich has already said he won't support Trump. Cruz would need to put Kasich on any ticket the senator would head which still alienates Trump (if Cruz would do that). While the nominee has inherent, near absolute power to choose the vp, the Convention still gets to ratify the nominee's choice of vp. Trump would oppose anything a nominee Cruz would do -- oppose successfully or unsuccessfully, it doesn't matter because it would be another disastrous floor fight.

If Paul Ryan wants this nomination then his kamikaze gene would be dominant. It is possible Ryan could be the nominee of what would be the remains of the R Party, or of a moderate alternative to a Trump win at the convention, but those scenarios are well beyond the moment.

There is only one historical precedent of the demise of a major political party in the US, when the Whig Party transitioned into the Republican Party in 1854 after a 20 year Whig life. The first sentence from Wiki below about the Whigs sounds like deja vu all over again (as Yogi would say)....

[The Whig Party] was formed in opposition to the policies of President Andrew Jackson (in office 1829–37) and his Democratic Party.

The [Whig] party fell apart because of internal tension over the expansion of slavery to the territories. With deep fissures in the party on this question, the anti-slavery faction prevented the nomination...of its own incumbent President Fillmore in the 1852 presidential election; instead, the party nominated General [Winfield] Scott.

The [Whig] northern voter-base mostly gravitated to the new Republican Party. In the South, most joined the Know Nothing Party, which unsuccessfully ran Fillmore in the 1856 presidential election, by which time the Whig Party had become virtually defunct.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_%28United_States%29

The presidency of Barack Obama is yet another richter scale political dividing line in the racial history of US politics and government. The equally fanatical reaction to the election of another Democratic Party Potus going on 170+ years later may indeed precipitate a third major realignment of the political parties.

This time, instead of continuing a two-party political system, American politics looks to be transmogrifying into a three or four party system. The racial and reactionary right is fierce about all of these things going on these dayze. Events seem to be occurring along this line -- one does not say a realignment is inevitable or an iron law. It is the case there is precedent for a major shakeup of American politics and political parties which may be occurring before our eyes.

I'd always known Cleveland became the home of the Rock 'N Roll Hall of Fame for a good reason. A Rockin' 'n a Rollin'.

Edited April 8, 2016 by Publicus

[Scotwight]

No, he DEFINITELY will not make the 1237. He knows that too. He's focusing now on his tactics to win on a later ballot. Very unlikely.

That is a lie. Trump currently has about 757 delegates, so he'd need 480 more. This is possible see - http://www.vox.com/2016/4/8/11384940/donald-trump-losing-2016-republican-primary

[up-country_sinclair]

Trump will be President and Cruz a member of the Supreme Court.

So, in this fantasy of yours, President Trump nominates Senator Cruz to the US Supreme Court.

OK, but you do realize that Trump has been calling Senator Cruz "lying Ted" for the last few months. Nearly every day he's called him this.

And yet you think Trump's going to nominate "lying Ted" to the highest court in the land.

[CWMcMurray]

No, he DEFINITELY will not make the 1237. He knows that too. He's focusing now on his tactics to win on a later ballot. Very unlikely.

That is a lie. Trump currently has about 757 delegates, so he'd need 480 more. This is possible see - http://www.vox.com/2016/4/8/11384940/donald-trump-losing-2016-republican-primary

Interesting read and seems to be a pretty fair look at things as they currently stand on the Republican side

[up-country_sinclair]

It's possible for Trump to get to 1237, but with the results of the recent primaries and caucuses, it's become more difficult. A contested convention seems to be in the cards this year, and I don't imagine the establishment will allow him to get the nomination.

[boomerangutang]

Amid the tempestuous maneuverings on the Republican convention floor, I can picture Trump parading around on a custom built vehicle. It will be a reconfigured golf cart with 8 wheels, with a large glittering stage built atop. With a bevy of scantilly dressed East European beauties arrayed around him, Trump, dressed like King Midas will be handing out his products for favors. "Are you a delegate from Arkansas? Here, take a bottle of Trump Vodka. Vote for me." "And you lady, yes you from Minnesota, here's a slab of Trump Beef. Pay no attention to the label which says Bush Brothers, it's really my beef. I shot the calf myself. Vote for me." Anyone who votes for me, gets a free first class seat in Trump Airlines. Don't listen to anyone who says the airline no longer exists. Trust me, if exists. It's bigger and better than ever. Ok, we've only got model airplanes right now, but we're gettting real jets featuring my name on their sides. Trust me on this. I always tell the truth. It will be the biggest airline in the world. I'll borrow billions from the bank, and pay everybody back later. They're going to trust me 'cause they know where I'll be living. The White House, soon to be the Gold House. You will all be so happy with me, believe me.

[CWMcMurray]

Seems a lot of people hoping for contested convention for Republicans, as they think will cause the most damage to Republican Party

Also have the feeling many people enjoy watching the meltdown

In my opinion, I disagree..

As if going down that road and the Republicans 'stop Trump' then does nothing to improve the Republican Party for the future ( maybe that's why some want it that way)

But for me... I think that both parties need to change

So I think the best thing that could happen would be for those candidates on both sides not anointed to the powers that be to win...

That means Trump defeating the RNC on the republican side winning and Bernie beating the DNC on the Democratic side

As both of the Party structures and powers that be on both sides I believe are corrupt

I am not saying that I like Trump or agree with all or many of his policies or that I will vote for him in the fall

I still haven't given up yet on Bernie, even though his path is much harder... As the DNC has rigged the primary on the democratic side with Super delegates ( we trust the people to vote - sort of- but hold a large portion of super delegate votes to make the decision if we don't agree with the voters)

Just think ... If the Republican Party was set up in Primary the same as the democrats.. We wouldn't even be talking about Trump, as he would have no chance.

But regardless.. I am all for both parties corrupt ruling elite getting a metaphoric 'kick in the teeth'

It would be great to see voters on both sides stand up and have a 'Rage Against the Machine' moment --- e.g. F U I won't do what you told me...

Edited April 8, 2016 by CWMcMurray

[grumpyoldman]

Trump will be President and Cruz a member of the Supreme Court.

So, in this fantasy of yours, President Trump nominates Senator Cruz to the US Supreme Court.

OK, but you do realize that Trump has been calling Senator Cruz "lying Ted" for the last few months. Nearly every day he's called him this.

And yet you think Trump's going to nominate "lying Ted" to the highest court in the land.

News in just from Mars, you missed the blast?

[up-country_sinclair]

Seems a lot of people hoping for contested convention for Republicans, as they think will cause the most damage to Republican Party

I'm hoping for a contested convention because at this point I think it's the only thing that can save the Republican party. If Trump somehow manages to win the nomination, it will hobble the party for at least a generation.

[Chicog]

Seems a lot of people hoping for contested convention for Republicans, as they think will cause the most damage to Republican Party

I'm hoping for a contested convention because at this point I think it's the only thing that can save the Republican party. If Trump somehow manages to win the nomination, it will hobble the party for at least a generation.

Wow an entire generation without being bled dry and led to war by a bunch of leeches.

That can't be a bad thing.

[CWMcMurray]

Seems a lot of people hoping for contested convention for Republicans, as they think will cause the most damage to Republican Party

I'm hoping for a contested convention because at this point I think it's the only thing that can save the Republican party. If Trump somehow manages to win the nomination, it will hobble the party for at least a generation.

I disagree... as think if the Republican Party has any chance at a meaningful future, it would need to change

If contested convention and 'Trump is stopped' it just means the same old same old... No growth, no change, no need to evaluate why the voters have disconnected

Why have so many Republicans voted for Trump in the primary?

I disagree completely with the reason that it's because those voters are uneducated, knuckle dragging, racists...

I think it is similar to way so many voting for Sanders on the Democrat side as well

A vast number of voters are angry and not happy with the establishment politics on both sides

I think the politicians on both sides of the isle need to accept this and need to make changes in both sides

And a 'win' by establishment candidates on either side will not force the politicians to recognize this and work for change within their respective parties

As it is not my hope that 1 party is destroyed and the other party establishment candidates rule the country for a generation

I think having a vibrant multiple party system is a good thing. I thing an exchange and a debate of ideas is a good thing

The problem is that system is not working well.. Change is needed

Edited April 8, 2016 by CWMcMurray

[Chicog]

Seems a lot of people hoping for contested convention for Republicans, as they think will cause the most damage to Republican Party

I'm hoping for a contested convention because at this point I think it's the only thing that can save the Republican party. If Trump somehow manages to win the nomination, it will hobble the party for at least a generation.

I disagree... as think if the Republican Party has any chance at a meaningful future, it would need to change

If contested convention and 'Trump is stopped' it just means the same old same old... No growth, no change, no need to evaluate why the voters have disconnected

Why have so many Republicans voted for Trump in the primary?

My initial reaction would be "because they're too stupid to see through him".

[CWMcMurray]

Seems a lot of people hoping for contested convention for Republicans, as they think will cause the most damage to Republican Party

I'm hoping for a contested convention because at this point I think it's the only thing that can save the Republican party. If Trump somehow manages to win the nomination, it will hobble the party for at least a generation.

I disagree... as think if the Republican Party has any chance at a meaningful future, it would need to change

If contested convention and 'Trump is stopped' it just means the same old same old... No growth, no change, no need to evaluate why the voters have disconnected

Why have so many Republicans voted for Trump in the primary?

My initial reaction would be "because they're too stupid to see through him".

I don't think it is an issue of being stupid... It speaks to them viewing him as an 'outsider'

I think in many cases they are supporting him in spite of himself and the things he says...

Why ? Because they are not happy and want change... A view by many that a change is better than the establishment

It is a vote of frustration not of thinking and agreement with Trump

But that's just my take on things...

Edited April 8, 2016 by CWMcMurray

[Publicus]

No, he DEFINITELY will not make the 1237. He knows that too. He's focusing now on his tactics to win on a later ballot. Very unlikely.

That is a lie. Trump currently has about 757 delegates, so he'd need 480 more. This is possible see - http://www.vox.com/2016/4/8/11384940/donald-trump-losing-2016-republican-primary

Interesting read and seems to be a pretty fair look at things as they currently stand on the Republican side

The best Republican national convention rules makers who are also the expert headcounters at the Republican National Committee assert that the reality is no one will know how many delegates any candidate has until after the first ballot is completed. Until then even their headcounting of the definitive experts is imprecise.

This comes from the RNC former general counsel Ben Ginsburg and a guy at the RNC named Curley Haugland who is the committee's rules expert (parlimentarian).

Add to it that the uncommitted delegates are another wild card who can vote or withhold their vote on the first ballot. Presently RNC believes there are 112 uncommitted delegates from the states and territories with more expected to be submitted.

As to the first or any subsequent ballot, after the roll call of the states is completed, balloting remains open to amendment or revision by one or more state delegations, until the chairman of the convention (Paul Ryan) declares the voting on the ballot to be concluded...in the opinion of the chair.

The Ryan declaration can come immediately after the last state and territory had cast its vote, or the declaration can be delayed for amendment or revision until the convention chairman decides to make the declaration that voting on the ballot is concluded...in the opinion of the chair.

Trump and Cruz will dominate the membership of the Convention Rules Committee. It will recommend rules to all the delegates on the floor to vote to adopt or to reject. Everyone will find out who has what delegate strength in numbers once the voting begins on the first rules proposed by the Rules Committee (which will have something like 121 members).

We begin to see why each party likes a clean and neat coronation convention.

The kicker is that the greybeard RNC lawyer Ben Ginsburg, who was central to the 2000 FL Potus recount-swindle, says the convention can move the goalpost if it wanted to do that, i.e., change the 1237 number. It's up to the Rules Committee which meets during the week before the convention and recommends all its proposed rules to the convention for its deciding vote. The sleepwalking RNC chairman Reince Priebus appoints the chairperson and vice chairperson of the convention Rules Committee.

Bon chance over there cause this isn't the half of it.

[Publicus]

Seems a lot of people hoping for contested convention for Republicans, as they think will cause the most damage to Republican Party

I'm hoping for a contested convention because at this point I think it's the only thing that can save the Republican party. If Trump somehow manages to win the nomination, it will hobble the party for at least a generation.

I disagree... as think if the Republican Party has any chance at a meaningful future, it would need to change

If contested convention and 'Trump is stopped' it just means the same old same old... No growth, no change, no need to evaluate why the voters have disconnected

Why have so many Republicans voted for Trump in the primary?

I disagree completely with the reason that it's because those voters are uneducated, knuckle dragging, racists...

I think it is similar to way so many voting for Sanders on the Democrat side as well

A vast number of voters are angry and not happy with the establishment politics on both sides

I think the politicians on both sides of the isle need to accept this and need to make changes in both sides

And a 'win' by establishment candidates on either side will not force the politicians to recognize this and work for change within their respective parties

As it is not my hope that 1 party is destroyed and the other party establishment candidates rule the country for a generation

I think having a vibrant multiple party system is a good thing. I thing an exchange and a debate of ideas is a good thing

The problem is that system is not working well.. Change is needed

A vast number of voters are angry and not happy with the establishment politics on both sides

'Vast' is not a claim the fringe far right can credibly claim for itself in this respect.

Fact is the vast majority of voters which means more than two-thirds of 'em say they could never vote for Donald Trump for Potus.

AP-GfK Poll: Americans overwhelmingly view Trump negatively

Seven in 10 people, including close to half of Republican voters, have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It’s an opinion shared by majorities of men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, Hispanics and blacks — a devastatingly broad indictment of the billionaire businessman.

More than 60 percent of all registered voters and 31 percent of Republicans said they definitely would not vote for Trump in the general election.

One group that is still with him includes those who describe themselves as both Republicans and supporters of the tea party movement. Sixty-eight percent of them have a favorable view.

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/featured/ap-gfk-poll-americans-overwhelmingly-view-trump-negatively

The end of the Republican party and not just as we know it. The end period if they nominate Trump. Senate and House turn blue as do most Republicans faces turn blue on election day. Supreme Court starts to wear blue robes.

RIP GOP.

Gone Old Party.

[Publicus]

This is what happens to people who don't know what the fock they are doing.

Washington Post: “West Virginia looks perfect for Donald Trump: a struggling working-class state filled with the types of voters who have backed him elsewhere and could deliver one of his biggest victories. But a sweep there might not matter. That’s because as many as 34 delegates — the entire contingent — may be free to back whomever they want at the Republican National Convention.”

“Much the same is true in Pennsylvania, home to a hotly contested April 26 primary, where there are 57 uncommitted delegates. Other states and territories, from Colorado to Wyoming to Guam, will also send squads of unbound representatives.”

The RNC former chairman Michael Steele said today it looks like Trump will arrive in Cleveland 40-75 delegate votes short of the 1237 needed to win on the first ballot. The "uncommitted" delegates may hold the difference but no numbers are set in stone now or up to the first voting on the rules on the first day of the convention.

Another interesting aspect of it, which is the newest 2016 memorable Trump campaign quote...

“You certainly can’t offer anything which would be considered a bribe. We can’t give them $100,000.”

So says Trump aide Ed Brookover, quoted by the Washington Post, refusing to rule out that the campaign may entertain delegates at one of Trump’s resorts.

The bimbo caucus.

[CWMcMurray]

Seems a lot of people hoping for contested convention for Republicans, as they think will cause the most damage to Republican Party

I'm hoping for a contested convention because at this point I think it's the only thing that can save the Republican party. If Trump somehow manages to win the nomination, it will hobble the party for at least a generation.

I disagree... as think if the Republican Party has any chance at a meaningful future, it would need to change

If contested convention and 'Trump is stopped' it just means the same old same old... No growth, no change, no need to evaluate why the voters have disconnected

Why have so many Republicans voted for Trump in the primary?

I disagree completely with the reason that it's because those voters are uneducated, knuckle dragging, racists...

I think it is similar to way so many voting for Sanders on the Democrat side as well

A vast number of voters are angry and not happy with the establishment politics on both sides

I think the politicians on both sides of the isle need to accept this and need to make changes in both sides

And a 'win' by establishment candidates on either side will not force the politicians to recognize this and work for change within their respective parties

As it is not my hope that 1 party is destroyed and the other party establishment candidates rule the country for a generation

I think having a vibrant multiple party system is a good thing. I thing an exchange and a debate of ideas is a good thing

The problem is that system is not working well.. Change is needed

A vast number of voters are angry and not happy with the establishment politics on both sides

'Vast' is not a claim the fringe far right can credibly claim for itself in this respect.

Fact is the vast majority of voters which means more than two-thirds of 'em say they could never vote for Donald Trump for Potus.

AP-GfK Poll: Americans overwhelmingly view Trump negatively

Seven in 10 people, including close to half of Republican voters, have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It’s an opinion shared by majorities of men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, Hispanics and blacks — a devastatingly broad indictment of the billionaire businessman.

More than 60 percent of all registered voters and 31 percent of Republicans said they definitely would not vote for Trump in the general election.

One group that is still with him includes those who describe themselves as both Republicans and supporters of the tea party movement. Sixty-eight percent of them have a favorable view.

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/featured/ap-gfk-poll-americans-overwhelmingly-view-trump-negatively

The end of the Republican party and not just as we know it. The end period if they nominate Trump. Senate and House turn blue as do most Republicans faces turn blue on election day. Supreme Court starts to wear blue robes.

RIP GOP.

Gone Old Party.

Disagree that the Republican Party and all of its members would cease to ever be Republican Party members for ever...

At the most just this election ...

The RNC doesn't just cease to exist and join the Democratic Party. They must at some point assess why so many voters in the Republican Party chose to vote for Trump

I still believe that they at some point must change to fix their internal disconnect within their party

And don't believe that the disconnect is because all voting for Trump are stupid, uneducated racists

I believe in many cases is just a protest against the current leadership of RNC

Hopefully that process would better their party and don't mean a move to the further right ... Oddly enough it should be a move to the further center...

Also the funny thing is... Hillary's negative numbers are not far behind those of Trump..

If Trump wasn't in the election, then everyone would be talking about how high Hillary's negative numbers are

So you should be happy Trump is in this

Race, as you are a Hillary supporter, right?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/22/politics/2016-election-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

Edited April 8, 2016 by CWMcMurray

[Asheron]

Seems a lot of people hoping for contested convention for Republicans, as they think will cause the most damage to Republican Party

I'm hoping for a contested convention because at this point I think it's the only thing that can save the Republican party. If Trump somehow manages to win the nomination, it will hobble the party for at least a generation.

I disagree... as think if the Republican Party has any chance at a meaningful future, it would need to change

If contested convention and 'Trump is stopped' it just means the same old same old... No growth, no change, no need to evaluate why the voters have disconnected

Why have so many Republicans voted for Trump in the primary?

I disagree completely with the reason that it's because those voters are uneducated, knuckle dragging, racists...

I think it is similar to way so many voting for Sanders on the Democrat side as well

A vast number of voters are angry and not happy with the establishment politics on both sides

I think the politicians on both sides of the isle need to accept this and need to make changes in both sides

And a 'win' by establishment candidates on either side will not force the politicians to recognize this and work for change within their respective parties

As it is not my hope that 1 party is destroyed and the other party establishment candidates rule the country for a generation

I think having a vibrant multiple party system is a good thing. I thing an exchange and a debate of ideas is a good thing

The problem is that system is not working well.. Change is needed

A vast number of voters are angry and not happy with the establishment politics on both sides

'Vast' is not a claim the fringe far right can credibly claim for itself in this respect.

Fact is the vast majority of voters which means more than two-thirds of 'em say they could never vote for Donald Trump for Potus.

AP-GfK Poll: Americans overwhelmingly view Trump negatively

Seven in 10 people, including close to half of Republican voters, have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It’s an opinion shared by majorities of men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, Hispanics and blacks — a devastatingly broad indictment of the billionaire businessman.

More than 60 percent of all registered voters and 31 percent of Republicans said they definitely would not vote for Trump in the general election.

One group that is still with him includes those who describe themselves as both Republicans and supporters of the tea party movement. Sixty-eight percent of them have a favorable view.

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/featured/ap-gfk-poll-americans-overwhelmingly-view-trump-negatively

The end of the Republican party and not just as we know it. The end period if they nominate Trump. Senate and House turn blue as do most Republicans faces turn blue on election day. Supreme Court starts to wear blue robes.

RIP GOP.

Gone Old Party.

Fringe far left just loves to make up all kind of stories.