US military units to stay for South China Sea patrols

[lannarebirth]

^Interesting conspiracy theory. So, Obama whacks China, bolstering the Dems and Clinton's tough guy credentials, and that will provide a turbo boost to Clinton and swing all the negative views about Clinton so she can win the election easier. That's a real abuse of power if that is the motivation. Of course it would be impossible to prove.

However, I'm not so sure isolationist Americans, who've come out of the woodwork for Trump, would even want the US to show that. There seems to be a feeling that the US should return home and let everyone else defend themselves. So, such a strategy might backfire on the Dems.

I think there may be a large, unrecognized "middle way" group of citizens that are neither Interventionist or isolationist. Those who might back interventions that weren't so transparently beneficial solely to special corporate interests perhaps.

[boomerangutang]

China has always wanted bilateral talks only with each country separately ....so after meeting the Chinese ambassador the guy says he wants to talk directly and negotiate terms and develop the island together. While it may not mean it ends well for China ...its at least on the platform that China wants and hopefully influence

He also mentioned in an earlier speech if China's does not claim it , Philippines would not too ...that's a departure from Aquinos stance that the court hearing is binding and the only way

China wont claim it for 6 more years...there is no rush....in the meantime they can continue building and negotiations

LC, you're proving my points I've been making:

China wants one-on-one talks because it's much easier to twist arms one-on-one, than when facing a group. If I was a rich man, and a mob showed up outside my house at night with torches and yelling that I had stolen a ham from the butcher's shop. It would be tough for me to deal with a mob of people all shouting accusations.

However, it would be much easier for me to deal with each person individually. At the least, I could say, "Look, don't worry about some silly hunk of meat. I'll give you a chunk of it, plus $1,000, how's that? Not enough, Ok, let's say $2,000. There, now we're friends. Bye Bye. Have a nice evening."

That's the first I've heard that China won't claim it for 6 years. That's like me saying to you, when I see your cute 12 year old daughter: "Don't worry, I won't rape her until she's 18."

LC, are leaning to being reasonable? You're making all my points. I'd like to think so, but I sense you're still leaning towards trying to justify China's illegal territory grab.

[boomerangutang]

Well, I think the biggest use of those sea-lanes is transporting the Chinese goods to Europe. China is not going to impede the Chinese ships going to Europe with the Chinese goods. What about Japanese and South Korean ships carrying goods from THOSE countries to Europe ? Well, I really don't think Beijing is interested in partially blocking or preventing Japanese and South Korean ships. How about Beijing makes a statement to say that they're NOT going to impede ships from Japan, South Korea, whatever other places ? And we wait to see if they do impede other ships ?

One reason HK became so rich is because it was one of the main conduits of trade between China and the rest of the world. Controlling a choke point can be powerful. Often in history, those who control commerce choke points are those who can exact money of favors - coming and going.

Up until a few months ago there was no impediment to sea and air traffic in the SCS. Chinese are now imposing restrictions and requiring ships and planes to ID themselves. That's a big change. If the Chinese aren't sent back to China, things will only get more intense and restrictive.

That's the biggest concern for the US and the many countries which the US assists, who share concerns. Here's one example of a likely future scenario: China has a tiff with another country or group of countries. China restricts their ships/planes passage through the sea lanes / airspace. Entirely likely to happen.

In recent times, China has had at least two tiffs with the US. One was the accidental bombing of a building in Serbia in which 2 Chinese were killed. Another was a too close encounter of Chinese and US planes. There are also scenarios where China and countries other than the US have hassles or worse. China has on-going hassles with India. At any time, Chinese on their commandeered islands can restrict passage of ships or planes. Not cool. If for no other reason, that justifies a preemptive strike to spank Chinese fannies, and send them packing back to China.

Edited May 17, 2016 by boomerangutang

[LawrenceChee]

China has always wanted bilateral talks only with each country separately ....so after meeting the Chinese ambassador the guy says he wants to talk directly and negotiate terms and develop the island together. While it may not mean it ends well for China ...its at least on the platform that China wants and hopefully influence

He also mentioned in an earlier speech if China's does not claim it , Philippines would not too ...that's a departure from Aquinos stance that the court hearing is binding and the only way

China wont claim it for 6 more years...there is no rush....in the meantime they can continue building and negotiations

LC, you're proving my points I've been making:

China wants one-on-one talks because it's much easier to twist arms one-on-one, than when facing a group. If I was a rich man, and a mob showed up outside my house at night with torches and yelling that I had stolen a ham from the butcher's shop. It would be tough for me to deal with a mob of people all shouting accusations.

However, it would be much easier for me to deal with each person individually. At the least, I could say, "Look, don't worry about some silly hunk of meat. I'll give you a chunk of it, plus $1,000, how's that? Not enough, Ok, let's say $2,000. There, now we're friends. Bye Bye. Have a nice evening."

That's the first I've heard that China won't claim it for 6 years. That's like me saying to you, when I see your cute 12 year old daughter: "Don't worry, I won't rape her until she's 18."

LC, are leaning to being reasonable? You're making all my points. I'd like to think so, but I sense you're still leaning towards trying to justify China's illegal territory grab.

Boomer - I am for a strong China that is environmentally conscious and economically viable nation that has a deterrent defense

Illegal land grab is an opinion that can be subject to many interpretations but as we all seen in life being a superpower nation or a leader of a big organization has its perks and China is understandably thinking what's fair and what's justifiable

1.4 billion is a lot to support and make good of for the good of mankind plus keeping Kim at Bay and relatively calm

You can see the approach are quite different ...USA announced today it will host military exercises with South Korea and Japan in anticipation of a possible Attack and they want to be ready

China on the other hand closer to North Korea is calling for calm , let's talk and trying to keep a nation fed so that the angry mob don't go ballistic and create a humanitarian disaster no country in Asia can manage if it happens.

I favor in this case China's methodology having seen what Europe cannot cope with with errors made by USA and its western allies in Syria and the Middle East

For the SCS , it's similar to a situation up in the Artic where a few countries have claimed it ...as usual USA has signed but not ratified the treaty ...China sees similar grounds here where a superpower USA can dictate terms as a country and get away with it because there are other leverages it hold on these countries

So for now SCS is a testing ground for China and its foreign diplomats to see what the 9 dash really can entail and as the superpower here in Asia has similar rights to emulate USA to see what the limits really are while maintaining cordial ties with the countries on other fronts

You can be sure the Chinese are learning fast and want as much as they can get as a superpower with no threat of wars or expensive campaigns ...I favor a peaceful approach but yes the bit players should also understand Panda will eat more bamboo than the rest ...

Edited May 17, 2016 by LawrenceChee

[boomerangutang]

LC, you bring a lot of other issues into the discussion. N.Korea is a problem distinct from the SCS. Perhaps China is doing good there, but Chinese cops are arresting any N.Koreans they find who have made it across the Yalu river - and either put them in prison, or send them back, knowing the migrant and his/her family will be severely punished. They should allow the migrants to go to S.Korea, where they want to go.

Interesting, with all the migrant problems in the world, none seem to want to migrate to China.

Arctic region has it's set of challenges, though there's no threat of war there, as there is in the SCS.

LC, you mention ".....errors made by USA and its western allies in Syria and the Middle East" Another gnarly bunch of problems. Everything the US and EU does or doesn't do is fodder for finding fault ("damned if you do, damned if you don't"). US and EU could do what China does, and stay completely away. Would that improve things in the Middle East? You tell me. At any given time, the Dune countries have major problems. China is looking there to see if/when the smoke clears, when it's safe enough to go in with biz deals and contracts to sign.

[Publicus]

^Interesting conspiracy theory. So, Obama whacks China, bolstering the Dems and Clinton's tough guy credentials, and that will provide a turbo boost to Clinton and swing all the negative views about Clinton so she can win the election easier. That's a real abuse of power if that is the motivation. Of course it would be impossible to prove.

However, I'm not so sure isolationist Americans, who've come out of the woodwork for Trump, would even want the US to show that. There seems to be a feeling that the US should return home and let everyone else defend themselves. So, such a strategy might backfire on the Dems.

I think there may be a large, unrecognized "middle way" group of citizens that are neither Interventionist or isolationist. Those who might back interventions that weren't so transparently beneficial solely to special corporate interests perhaps.

I think there may be a large, unrecognized "middle way" group of citizens

The vast moderate middle of the US electorate rejects the lunatic Trump and accepts Hillary Clinton as qualified, capable, safe. Which is why the green is on HRC and are the reasons the green has been on HRC throughout this campaign.

The group referenced in the post is an entirely different public that is unrecognised because it does not exist as it is defined in the post. It is not a matter of either or, nor is it a matter of neither. It is simply the matter of a cold hard assessment of what is good for the USA.

TPP is of an enormous benefit to the USA which is why HRClinton back when said it was the "gold standard." As has been pointed out by Poot, everyone with any measure of reality recognises the tremendous benefit to the USA that TPP presents and provides. Which is why it will get through the Congress despite some hard kicking back and a copious loud screaming by some in the House especially.

TPP has the inherent value of attracting CCP in their need of economic and financial growth and wealth for the Party. So TPP is more than strictly a trade deal because it can and will be used as leverage in such situations as the SCS. That is, it isn't only the CCP that can or does maneuver in the global markets for position and the upper hand advantage in geo-economics and geo-strategically. CCP is new to wealth and power, whereas USA and its allies and partners in the SCS disputes have been at the wealth thing longer and more extensively than CCP had been the past 600 years to the present.

CCP are still applying their ancient Central Kingdom mentality in the SCS, whereas Asean is a modern entity of developed or developing economies and societies. CCP's notions of who and what China is in the 21st century is perilously contrary to the self-notion of Asean and its member states of who and what they are in the contemporary region and world, to include going foward.

CCP have not only boxed themselves in on the SCS territorial grabs by military means, CCP have found themselves boxed in as needing to be in TPP too and besides. The vital question is whether CCP Boyz in Beijing can or ever will recognise or realise the modern realities of the SCS, Asean, TPP, USA.

While China does not climb down from the high and mighty position it habitually takes, its own self-retarding mindset has placed it in a position of climb down or get knocked down. China's self-created present position of peril should never have happened but, then again, given that China remains China, it was entirely predictable.

So is the outcome.

[Publicus]

The upcoming Russia-ASEAN summit (May 19-21), is getting a lot of attention in Russia calling attention to its interests in ASEAN, and specifically in Vietnam.

"We often call this country (Vietnam) ‘bridge to ASEAN’," Lokshin said. "However, this is not just a bridge by which you can enter other countries in the region. This is the display window of effectiveness and potential opportunities of our bilateral cooperation," he added. "Politicians and business circles of all ASEAN countries are carefully watching" developing cooperation between Russia and Vietnam and "making their conclusions," he noted.

More:

http://tass.ru/en/politics/875801

Seem like Vietnam is the flavor of the month and everybody's darling in ASEAN now. Russia can lay claim to deep cooperation from Soviet days, and continuing today.

It could be all pre-summit rhetoric, but I would not be surprised to see Russia start some security operations or naval patrols in Vietnam claimed parts of SCS too, specifically with their old comrad Vietnam.

Might turn into multinational Naval Brinkmanship Central in the SCS soon.

President Obama will spend three days in Vietnam beginning Thursday after which he will show up in Hiroshima Japan for the G-7 leaders conference. CCP will not like either. CCP already hates each of 'em and both of 'em.

Vietnam PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc arrived in Moscow two dayze early for the Asean-Russia meeting so he could leave early to be at home when Pres. Obama arrives. There's a lot to discuss, many places to go, all kinds of people for President Obama to meet with and to see, Vietnam war cleanups, speeches to deliver, press conferences to conduct, a Comprehensive Partnership Agreement to sign off on to confirm new and extensive relations.

It looks unlikely Pres. Obama will take the visit to remove the main components that remain of the arms embargo. He's likely instead to establish a joint commission to examine progress by Vietnam in human rights, civil rights, to hash out which serious weapons Vietnam wants and a schedule to get 'em that is based on merit rather than wish.

EU has extensive investments in Vietnam and in Asean, as do the US and Japan, so Asean as a group and members individually respect that EU speaks of conflicts from the experience of two world wars in Europe during the past century. Asean and Vietnam listen to the US knowing fully well the US role in those wars...Russia too from that end of it. Vietnam well knows the history of CCP military aggression against it in the Paracel Islands and the CCP's disastrous invasion of the north of Vietnam in 1979, which was terminated after Russia had indicated to CCP it was going to get even worse for Deng Xiao Ping and his gang.

It is more than fair to note Asean sees similarities to Europe during the period 1900-1950 when it sees and feels CCP Dictators of Beijing extending their national power and military rise in the SCS, the East Sea, and within the borders of Asean member states. Asean has itself lived the period of the PRC since 1949.

Three weeks ago G-7 foreign ministers in Hiroshima issued a statement that was unmistakable in addressing CCP aggression in the region, the SCS especially. CCP Dictators all but declared themselves to be innocent victims.

G-7 leaders will issue their own statement from Hiroshima. If CCP Dictators in Beijing think there is going to be a Munich anywhere in the statement by the G-7 leaders they'd be horrendously mistaken....again, as they have been from the outset of their regional belligerence, bellicosity, aggressions.

Edited May 17, 2016 by Publicus

[Publicus]

Like I mentioned ASEAN is a mix bag and constantly changing

President Elect of Philippines just mentioned in a press conference after meeting the Chinese ambassador he is willing to talk and negotiate for the islands directly with China

Must drive the USA nuts tonight ...knowing that one of the key allies has flipped sides again

The guy is a tough nut to crack and mentioned that he will jet ski to the islands and plant a flag ..,,the Chinese like him for that ..tough and straight to the case....

Everyone back to the table and talk about the most important issue ....how much would that island cost ?

Pour the tea and pass the biscuits will you ....?

The new Philippines president who takes office June 30th is not going to side with the CCP for a number of reasons.

One is that Rodrigo Duterte is from Mindanao and he wants rail transportation there but Duterte is not interested in any big projects in the rest of the country. That leaves him with a small base of interest in the country as a whole.

The anti-CCP sentiment is so powerful and dominant throughout the country Duterte had to make his Trump-style statement he'd personally jet ski to the Spratlys to plant a Phils flag there. The population expects Duterte to stand up to CCP, not to kiss their, er, ring.

Duterte will comply with the Phils Supreme Court ruling that the military agreements with the United States are constitutional, and Duterte has also said he'd approach the SCS issue from a multinational perspective in support of the ILOS and the Tribunal's findings.

China not cool with President-elect Duterte’s plan to solve WPS disputes

May 11, 2016 Gloria Seloza

The Chinese government is not cool with President-elect Rodrigo Duterte’s position that he will enter into multilateral talks that will include the United States, Japan, and other claimant countries to resolve West Philippine Sea disputes.

Duterte, however, is open to jointly explore oil and gas in still disputed maritime territories but China should respect Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

http://www.update.ph/2016/05/china-not-cool-with-president-elect-dutertes-plan-to-solve-wps-disputes/5464

No question Duterte wants to negotiate directly with CCP but he's been clear that CCP would have to quit any claims of sovereignty to agree that neither side has a claim to anything, that each side should share and cooperate. In short, either Duterte knows CCP will never do that or any such cooperative and amicable thing, or Duterte is naive. It's more the former.

Phils-US military to military relations are back to where they were during the cold war. The Phils military has no loyalty or obligation to Duterte. This is especially true given Duterte has been mayor of Davao with the open support of the Makabayan which is the political front of the Marxist New People's Army in Mindanao and which the Phils military has been fighting for many years, most recently with US military "advisors". Duterte has continued speaking openly of putting some Makabayan in his cabinet which is something most people in the Phils do not support and which the military opposes absolutely.

It would be interesting anyway to see how some people in Thailand who supported the military takeover here in 2014 might react to something like it in another Asean country at some possible unspecified point in the not too distant future. Possibility.

Edited May 17, 2016 by Publicus

[tonbridgebrit]

Okay, we've gone back to this TPP thing.

A quick reminder as to what the TPP is. Basically, a trade block, that includes countries like USA, Japan and Vietnam, but not China. Maybe China will be invited in later. And from what people are saying, this TPP thing will force (or put pressure) on China to stop building more islands. Basically, they will allow China to enter the TPP if China stops its "aggression" in the South China Sea.



Okay, here is a link from yahoo, by Reuters. Main-stream media.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/obama-says-chinese-led-trade-deal-shows-tpp-082422745.html

A few quotes. [U.S. President Barack Obama said on Monday that a Chinese-led regional trade deal demonstrated the urgent need for Congress to approve the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact.]

Also, [Obama has been pushing to finalise the TPP before he leaves office on Jan. 20, but he needs to overcome strong anti-trade sentiment from both the left wing of his own Democratic Party as well as from the right flank of the Republican Party.

Voter anxiety over the impact of trade deals on jobs and the environment has featured large in the campaigns of Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner for the Nov. 8 presidential election, and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, who is running against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.]

And [in an opinion piece published on the website of the Washington Post on Monday, Obama said he understood voter scepticism but that "building walls to isolate ourselves from the global economy" would backfire on the American economy.

"China is negotiating a trade deal that would carve up some of the fastest-growing markets in the world at our expense, putting American jobs, businesses and goods at risk," Obama said in the piece.]


And [Obama was referring to the 16-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, and noted that China was seeking to finalise the deal by the end of the year.]




Now then, notice how posters have come here to claim that China is dangerous, a threat to world peace, and how the TPP is of huge imortance.

Okay, so what is actually happening ? Basically, they are demonising China about the Chinese dots being built, and Washington is desperate to create this TPP thing. Oh, demonising China puts more pressure for the TPP to come about, so, China is being used as an excuse (or fear tactic) to push this TPP thing forward.

And, Washington, YOU are a democracy. Stuff that you do, it must be approved by a vote amongst Americans. Oh, so there ARE Americans who are against free trade deals. Oh, you're trying to scare THOSE Americans into supporting this TPP thing ?

Is that what this whole thing really is about ?

[tonbridgebrit]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-26/chinese-navy-in-south-china-sea-draws-u-s-admiral-s-praise


[standing on a nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier the length of more than three football fields as it plows through one of the world’s most contested seas, Rear Admiral Marcus Hitchcock has only high praise for the navy of his biggest military rival: China.

Around 125 nautical miles from the Malaysian coast in the South China Sea, Hitchcock, the newly-minted commander of the carrier strike group led by the USS John C. Stennis, says his ships have been engaged on almost a “twenty four-seven basis” with a “completely professional” People’s Liberation Army Navy.]





Rear Admiral Marcus Hitchcock.

[keemapoot]

^As that article states, there are codes of conduct for unplanned encounters at sea and other professional protocols to keep our navies from premature engagement, and that the Chinese navy is well trained and reliable. It further points out the danger that the Chinese Coast Guard is the real danger, because they have been given a broader mandate and are not as well trained nor do they have or abide by the codes, and so that is where a flash point is likely to come.

China needs to reign in its coast guard or get them on the same page as the navy or if a conflict happens because of this, they will have to bear the burden of blame.

[LawrenceChee]

Agree on that post Keemapoot

China had many organs of the forces to deal with different scenarios and it's hard to say all have the same objectives

[keemapoot]

With Vietnam now big news on everybody's radar, Russia's role has continued to be examined, and Vietnam is being called Russia's Bridge to ASEAN. However, speculation earlier in this thread by this poster that Russia might intervene in Vietnam has been refuted by posters in this thread, including Publicus, and here in this article:

Because of its huge size and power, China is much more important to Russia than Vietnam and it is unlikely Moscow will back Hanoi if conflicts arise between the two communist neighbors. In 2014, when China placed its huge oil rig deep inside Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, Moscow did not back Vietnam. Worse for Hanoi, during the oil rig crisis, Russia signed a 30-year gas deal worth $400 billion with China.

However, this does not mean Russia undervalues its relations with Vietnam and other regional countries. While Moscow aligns with Beijing to restrict the American influence globally, it is not willing to be China’s junior partner in Asia.

Russia launched its own ‘pivot to the East’ mainly because it wants to become an influential player on its own right in East Asia. To achieve that, it cannot be subordinate to Beijing and, consequently, needs to contain China’s growing regional dominance.

So, now we see Russia also "pivoting to Asia" and sticking its nose into ASEAN. I suspect it's largely to remain relevant as a world power seeing the activity by the US in the area. A new $500m investment fund will be launched with Russia, Vietnam & Brunei also (very strategic in that Brunei and Viet are 2 of only 4 in the sweet spot of being both TPP signatories and ASEAN countries)

Will be interesting to see which flags the vessels cruising the SCS are flying in the near future.

http://atimes.com/2016/05/vietnam-is-russias-bridge-to-asean/

[boomerangutang]

The Nation newspaper is now a mouthpiece (one of many) for Beijing propaganda. It gets articles sent from Beijing (in English, of course) and just puts the full text in their opinion section. I've noticed it happening twice, though there may be others, and there certainly be more in the future. I wrote a letter to the Nation about it.....

- - - - - - - - - - -

Re; 'World not safer with the US as its policeman'

Come on Nation Newspaper: you've got to add a disclaimer note to stories from the China Daily. They're blatantly propaganda. For starters, the reef is Philippine, not Chinese. Secondly, it's part of the Spratly Islands. The Chinese name used in the article is just that: a Chinese name the Chinese recently put on the islands in order to try and assert ownership. Is the Nation now an extension of Beijing's propaganda mouthpiece? This is the second article I've seen in the Nation from Beijing. Both have false and misleading data.

Here's recommended wording for a disclaimer: "The source for this article, the China Daily, is a propaganda mouthpiece for the Beijing politburo. Place names used, and content are not necessarily true."

Regarding Philippines' Spratly Islands: Let's say you and your family go out to dinner. I then walk in your house, give it a different name and claim it as my own. When you return, you want me to leave. I don't leave because I have weapons which I will use to stay in your house, which I now call my house. What are you going to do?

- signed -

- - - - - - - - - -

[tonbridgebrit]

So, now we see Russia also "pivoting to Asia" and sticking its nose into ASEAN. I suspect it's largely to remain relevant as a world power seeing the activity by the US in the area. A new $500m investment fund will be launched with Russia, Vietnam & Brunei also (very strategic in that Brunei and Viet are 2 of only 4 in the sweet spot of being both TPP signatories and ASEAN countries)

Will be interesting to see which flags the vessels cruising the SCS are flying in the near future.

Yes, Washington is doing a "Pivot to the Pacific", and Moscow is doing a 'pivot to Asia".

And China, Beijing is doing a "pivot to it's own backyard" ??

Maybe Beijing and Moscow should try a "Pivot to Latin America" ? Turn up in El Salvador or Nicaragua, hand out loans, and start buying/extracting whatever natural resources !

[tonbridgebrit]

The Nation newspaper is now a mouthpiece (one of many) for Beijing propaganda. It gets articles sent from Beijing (in English, of course) and just puts the full text in their opinion section. I've noticed it happening twice, though there may be others, and there certainly be more in the future. I wrote a letter to the Nation about it.....

- - - - - - - - - - -

Re; 'World not safer with the US as its policeman'

Come on Nation Newspaper: you've got to add a disclaimer note to stories from the China Daily. They're blatantly propaganda. For starters, the reef is Philippine, not Chinese. Secondly, it's part of the Spratly Islands. The Chinese name used in the article is just that: a Chinese name the Chinese recently put on the islands in order to try and assert ownership. Is the Nation now an extension of Beijing's propaganda mouthpiece? This is the second article I've seen in the Nation from Beijing. Both have false and misleading data.

Here's recommended wording for a disclaimer: "The source for this article, the China Daily, is a propaganda mouthpiece for the Beijing politburo. Place names used, and content are not necessarily true."

Regarding Philippines' Spratly Islands: Let's say you and your family go out to dinner. I then walk in your house, give it a different name and claim it as my own. When you return, you want me to leave. I don't leave because I have weapons which I will use to stay in your house, which I now call my house. What are you going to do?

- signed -

- - - - - - - - - -

Boomer, I don't think your analogy is accurate.

Okay, did the Philippines actually claim the Spratly Islands first ? Before China claimed them ?

On the issue of who do these uninhabited islands belong to, well, it gets complicated when deciding who do they belong to.

The Senkaku Islands that belong to Japan, and bearing in mind that Taiwan and China also claim them. Japan has them, I think, on the grounds that Japan claimed them first. That's bearing in mind that the islands (some of them) are closer to Taiwan than they are to Okinawa, Okinawa being part of Japan.

There's also that Diego Garcia place. A military base of the USA. In the middle of the Indian Ocean. It's not near Britain, and it's not near the USA.

Any judgement on who these islands belong to, surely, has to show consistency ?

[keemapoot]

So, now we see Russia also "pivoting to Asia" and sticking its nose into ASEAN. I suspect it's largely to remain relevant as a world power seeing the activity by the US in the area. A new $500m investment fund will be launched with Russia, Vietnam & Brunei also (very strategic in that Brunei and Viet are 2 of only 4 in the sweet spot of being both TPP signatories and ASEAN countries)

Will be interesting to see which flags the vessels cruising the SCS are flying in the near future.

Yes, Washington is doing a "Pivot to the Pacific", and Moscow is doing a 'pivot to Asia".

And China, Beijing is doing a "pivot to it's own backyard" ??

Maybe Beijing and Moscow should try a "Pivot to Latin America" ? Turn up in El Salvador or Nicaragua, hand out loans, and start buying/extracting whatever natural resources !

Yeah, this pivot nonsense is getting dizzying. Taiwan is pivoting back to the USA and away from China; Thailand has pivoted to China and away from the USA, but now slightly pivoting back and forth; China pivoted to Africa but that didn't work. And, if Trump is elected, all USA pivoting will stop.

[LawrenceChee]

So, now we see Russia also "pivoting to Asia" and sticking its nose into ASEAN. I suspect it's largely to remain relevant as a world power seeing the activity by the US in the area. A new $500m investment fund will be launched with Russia, Vietnam & Brunei also (very strategic in that Brunei and Viet are 2 of only 4 in the sweet spot of being both TPP signatories and ASEAN countries)

Will be interesting to see which flags the vessels cruising the SCS are flying in the near future.

Yes, Washington is doing a "Pivot to the Pacific", and Moscow is doing a 'pivot to Asia".

And China, Beijing is doing a "pivot to it's own backyard" ??

Maybe Beijing and Moscow should try a "Pivot to Latin America" ? Turn up in El Salvador or Nicaragua, hand out loans, and start buying/extracting whatever natural resources !

Yeah, this pivot nonsense is getting dizzying. Taiwan is pivoting back to the USA and away from China; Thailand has pivoted to China and away from the USA, but now slightly pivoting back and forth; China pivoted to Africa but that didn't work. And, if Trump is elected, all USA pivoting will stop.

Just makes the world of politics these much more exciting can't wait for trump to win and give comrade P 4 years of living hell to see what a President can undo in a matter of weeks

Won't be surprised to see Sudan and Somalia extending state visits to Trump after a year as he will probably run out of friendly countries to visit after his rhetorics

Even Obama who is normally quite sensible and sensitive tried to hug Aung in Myanmar to try to show his solidarity but ended up in a gaffe not understanding Asian woman don't hug strangers ...

Be interesting to see what will happen next as Obama is considering lifting arms embargo on Vietnam and escalating another regional conflict by arming countries and making $$$$ on the side

[Publicus]

^As that article states, there are codes of conduct for unplanned encounters at sea and other professional protocols to keep our navies from premature engagement, and that the Chinese navy is well trained and reliable. It further points out the danger that the Chinese Coast Guard is the real danger, because they have been given a broader mandate and are not as well trained nor do they have or abide by the codes, and so that is where a flash point is likely to come.

China needs to reign in its coast guard or get them on the same page as the navy or if a conflict happens because of this, they will have to bear the burden of blame.

CCP runs a two-speed armed forces so the quoted USN rear admiral the Stennis carrier strike group commander was making observations in respect of the fast speed PLAN. Same is true of the CCP Maritime Forces, the Coast Guard in particular. The admiral did not of course discuss anything about the two-speed CCP armed forces as it would be detrimental to the single point he was directed and authorised to make.

All branches of the CCP's armed forces have elite units, personnel, commanders, then each has the bulk of its force that function in much lower gears. While PLA itself for instance remains big, slow, clumsy, essentially unmaneuverable, PLA does nonetheless have elite combat units such as the Second Artillery Force to handle its missiles in addition to souped-up cyberwarfare units and the like.

Several ships of the PLA Navy South Fleet underway during exercises in the South China Sea April 21-29,

2016.

PLA Navy has so rapidly increased its number and quality of ships that the Boyz can't put it all to sea. They can't recruit or train people fast enough, so two years ago the Boyz reactivated retired PLAN noncommissioned officers to help staff up their ships and training centers. It's still not enough.

CCP maritime and coast guard forces are much more experienced than the PLAN in these matters from having been active in the East Sea against Japan in the Senkaku islands dispute from 2009-13 to also include some activities in the SCS. Still, the PLAN ships CCP deploys to the East Sea and now to the SCS have well disciplined personnel that are better trained than most of the PLAN. They are, as the USN admiral noted, professional, skilled, familiar with their ships and their capabilities and the like. PLAN just doesn't get much actual training time at sea but that's gradually improving too, although never adequately for the total of three PLAN fleets (three fewer fleets than the USN).

Edited May 21, 2016 by Publicus

[boomerangutang]

Someone asked rhetorically whether Philippines had claimed the islands. I don't know if they formally claimed them prior to Chinese taking them over. But either way, I don't think Philippines were required to formally claim them. The islands, or at least most of them, including shoals, lay within the Fil's 200 mile economic zone. Sometimes things like that are just taken for granted - or at least they are until China shows up to claim ownership. Did the US have to formally lay claim to the Florida Keys or to the Aleutian Islands or the islands off Alaska's coast near Juneau or Washington State's islands? I don't know, but those islands naturally fall near US mainland, similar to how the Spratlys are near Philippines.

I'd imagine maps are as important as anything else re; this issue. What do maps indicate? For starters, no Chinese maps (prior to very recent Chinese maps) place the contested islands as part of China. The names of the islands on all maps (again, prior to very recent Chinese maps) all have farang-sounding names: Spratly, Paracel, Scarborough. Those items, among other things, indicate the contested territories have never been Chinese.

[Publicus]

^As that article states, there are codes of conduct for unplanned encounters at sea and other professional protocols to keep our navies from premature engagement, and that the Chinese navy is well trained and reliable. It further points out the danger that the Chinese Coast Guard is the real danger, because they have been given a broader mandate and are not as well trained nor do they have or abide by the codes, and so that is where a flash point is likely to come.

China needs to reign in its coast guard or get them on the same page as the navy or if a conflict happens because of this, they will have to bear the burden of blame.

there are codes of conduct

The points are well taken, however, the only code CCP have is their own code, which is to say anything then to go ahead to do what they'd already long schemed to do. And to act at their pleasure.

The dictators in Beijing have stated absolutely and repeatedly they will not accept or honor the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which is expected to come by June 30th at the latest. CCP Dictators in Beijing signed the UNILOS Treaty yet they ignore it any time they like in any thing, any where. The SCS is no exception of course.

CCP Dictators wrecked the 2002 Code of Conduct mutually agreed by Asean and CCP and which had been initiated by Asean to include several years of negotiations before adopting the document. CCP shredded the COC in 2012 at the Asean annual meeting in Cambodia where it simultaneously demolished the Asean proposed Declaration of Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea, which had sought to expand and upgrade the original COC.

This deliberately created incident by CCP Dictators occurred in the SCS in December 2013 when the USS Cowpens guided missile cruiser was intercepted by a PLA Navy cruiser which set itself on a course that would cause Cowpens to smash into it bow first. It would look like the USN had rammed a PLA Navy warship. Only quick action by the Cowpens captain averted the collision....

US Warship Narrowly Avoids Chinese Vessel Collision In South China Sea

A US warship took evasive action to prevent a collision with a Chinese vessel in the South China Sea last week. The maritime near-miss involved the USS Cowpens, a guided missile cruiser. The US warship was operating near the Liaoning, China’s new and only aircraft carrier. A Chinese warship changed course to cross paths with the USS Cowpens after asking the US ship to leave the area. Quick action prevented a possible impact.

December 5’s near collision was essentially a game of chicken being played by the Chinese navy. Suspicious of the US warship’s close proximity to their only aircraft carrier, they told the USS Cowpens to leave. Noting that they were operating in international waters, the US warship declined to change course. A Chinese warship was then dispatched to intersect with the Cowpens’ course.

According to a defense official, the two vessels eventually opened bridge-to-bridge communications. The US warship warned the Chinese crew that their vessel was coming dangerously close. Finally, the Cowpens commander ordered an “all stop” less than 500 yards away. The Chinese warship continued on its course, past the Cowpens.

A US official remarked that the incident was “unusual.” A second official believes that “the Chinese knew what they were doing” by challenging the US warship.

http://www.inquisitr.com/1061738/us-warship-narrowly-avoids-chinese-vessel-collision-in-south-china-sea/#7C2BCD8obVs06c3R.99

USN which shadows PLA Navy and coast guard ships in international waters has never been reported any where or at any time of trying to provoke a ramming or other contact incident between 'em. Ramming is a PLA Navy favorite as evidenced during the East Sea jockeying between CCP, Japan and USA over the Senkaku islands 2009-13, so it's not a surprise tactic for which the USN would be unprepared.

The lesson just about everyone took from this incident which could have been worse is that a new level of mistrust had been revealed between US and CCP.

Edited May 21, 2016 by Publicus

[tonbridgebrit]

Okay, this came out in December, last year, 2015.


http://www.reuters.com/article/southchinasea-usa-idUSL1N14726820151218

Quote [Dec 18 A U.S. B-52 bomber on a routine mission mistakenly flew within 2 nautical miles of a Chinese-built artificial island in the South China Sea last week, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing the Pentagon.

One of two planes on the mission flew closer than planned to Cuarteron Reef in the Spratly Islands, the Journal said, adding that the Pentagon was investigating the reasons why the bomber came so close to the reef.

China and its neighbors have competing claims over the Spratlys, and the issue has become a source of friction between Beijing and Washington.]


Now then, notice how the Pentagon was investigating why the bomber came so close to the reef.




Okay, it's my turn to use websites that might not be mainstream media.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428821/us-apologizes-b-52-south-china-sea-signals-american-weakness

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/12/22/us-tells-beijing-that-b-52-flyover-was-a-mistake/


From the second link above, a quote [What exactly is President Obama’s strategy in the South China Sea? After dithering for months on whether to conduct freedom of navigation exercises, the White House finally went ahead and sailed a destroyer past a Chinese artificial island in October. Then there was some confusion as Pentagon and Administration officials said the operation had been mischaracterized. Now, after a U.S. B-52 bomber flew over a Chinese man-made island last week, officials are indicating that the Pentagon made a mistake.]

The same link claims that the Wall Street Journal wrote [Pentagon officials told The Wall Street Journal they are investigating why one of two B-52s on the mission last week flew closer than planned to Cuarteron Reef in the Spratly Islands, an area where China and its neighbors have competing territorial claims. A senior U.S. defense official said that bad weather had contributed to the pilot flying off course and into the area claimed by China.

Beijing filed a formal diplomatic complaint with the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, which prompted the Pentagon to look into the matter.]

And also [Given that the United States does not recognize China’s claims, it’s unclear why, even if the operation was a mistake, the Pentagon would publicly acknowledge as much. Such mixed signals make it difficult to put significant pressure on Beijing. Moreover, this backtracking comes after several strong indications that the navigation exercises had emboldened Pacific allies like Malaysia and the Philippines.]



Is Washington making a public relations (media) mistake ?
We know Beijing sometimes makes itself look silly in front of the media. What about Washington ?

[Publicus]

Someone asked rhetorically whether Philippines had claimed the islands. I don't know if they formally claimed them prior to Chinese taking them over. But either way, I don't think Philippines were required to formally claim them. The islands, or at least most of them, including shoals, lay within the Fil's 200 mile economic zone. Sometimes things like that are just taken for granted - or at least they are until China shows up to claim ownership. Did the US have to formally lay claim to the Florida Keys or to the Aleutian Islands or the islands off Alaska's coast near Juneau or Washington State's islands? I don't know, but those islands naturally fall near US mainland, similar to how the Spratlys are near Philippines.

I'd imagine maps are as important as anything else re; this issue. What do maps indicate? For starters, no Chinese maps (prior to very recent Chinese maps) place the contested islands as part of China. The names of the islands on all maps (again, prior to very recent Chinese maps) all have farang-sounding names: Spratly, Paracel, Scarborough. Those items, among other things, indicate the contested territories have never been Chinese.

PCA in The Hague has already declared the bilateral sucker approach CCP so dearly loves to have no legal standing under ILOS. In other words, the ILOS is legally determining in the SCS disputes. Governments are legally bound by it.

The Tribunal has noted that the Code of Conduct negotiated at Asean's initiative with CCP in 2002 is a political agreement, not a legal one. COC is a document based on political policy by political decision makers in government. So the Court dismissed as insufficient Beijing's (possibly accurate) claims the COC suggested the claimant states negotiate bilaterally.

The same is true of the Asean proposed Document On the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). CCP Dictators sabotaged both documents in 2012 during the Asean annual meeting in Cambodia led by Beijing's Boy, Hun Sen.

So CCP has no legal basis to stand on when it advocates its bully approach, i.e., bilateral negotiations with each SCS claimant country and in trying to swindle Asean as a whole in the SCS stuff. This is why CCP is so hot under the collar about the Phils taking the case to the Court. The Court's legal ruling takes precedence over any strictly political agreement made by the heads of governments.

CCP is screwed again....

Philippines has emphasised to the five-person tribunal that it is not asking for a ruling on territorial sovereignty, but to clarify its maritime entitlements in the South China Sea.

The tribunal decided in October last year that it has the authority to consider the Philippines' submissions, adding that the DOC was only a political agreement, which is not legally binding.

The tribunal will rule on whether China's "nine-dash line" violates UNCLOS, whether the maritime features claimed by both parties should be characterised as "islands, rocks, low-tide elevations or submerged banks" (to determine the maritime zones they are entitled to), and whether "certain Chinese activities" in the South China Sea have violated UNCLOS.

China is adamant that it would not entertain the decision.

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/ruling-on-south-china-sea-could-change-the-world-the-star-columnist

So CCP Dictators in Beijing are flapping at the mouth again whilst jumping up and down and flapping their arms too. Here's yet another blue in the face CCP denunciation of the Phils, the US, Asean, the Tribunal....

"No matter what verdict the arbitration case will be, it is unlawful and invalid. China will neither accept nor recognise it," Ouyang Yujing, director-general of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said in a press conference in early May.

Dr Li said it is foreseeable that the disputes over the South China Sea would continue to exist for a long time after the verdict is delivered. He downplayed the significance of the arbitration, saying that it has been hyped up to appear as if it could "change the world".

"While China is the most experienced country in the world in solving boundary disputes (through bilateral negotiations), it is also the least experienced when it comes to dealing with territorial claims through international arbitration, so I think China has made the right decision to stay away from the arbitration," he said.

http://www.mb.com.ph/reclamation-in-scarborough-may-force-us-to-defend-ph-aquino/

Whatever decisios "China" may make in anything, the reality is that the world has changed from China's time as its own self-created Central Kingdom, although CCP are nothing more than a new dynasty of emperors in business suits. A new dynasty, yes, so it is a young and nervous dynasty. It gets really upset really fast and hard in just about anything that doesn't go its way.

The five-member Tribunal has btw the Chief Arbiter from Ghana and the other four Tribunal members from, respectively, France, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, each of which is an ILOS signatory. So one begins to see in part why Beijing is having a nervous breakdown.

Edited May 21, 2016 by Publicus

[LawrenceChee]

Nice plane .....i do respect what that plane can do and the serviceman working on it as professionals

[boomerangutang]

"The tribunal will rule on whether China's "nine-dash line" violates UNCLOS,...."

Boomer's comment: That would be a political finding. So, it's not just about geographic/geological features.

[Publicus]

"The tribunal will rule on whether China's "nine-dash line" violates UNCLOS,...."

Boomer's comment: That would be a political finding. So, it's not just about geographic/geological features.

It's probably a matter of semantics.

PCA could rule directly that the nine-dashed line is invalid, that it is in fact in violation of ILOS. Yet that would be a technical ruling. The ruling would be technical rather than political because it would not address the sensitive matter of sovereignty. PCA would define the features of the Sea only. That in turn would say the line is an excessive claim of territorial sea.

ILOS experts at the US Naval War College legal center say the Court is unlikely to rule directly on the nine-dashed line however. They expect the Tribunal to only define the features in dispute, as defined under ILOS. This in itself would invalidate the line.

That is, if the Court rules Scarborough Shoal is indeed within the Philippines 200 nm EEZ, then the nine dash line is invalid in the east area of SCS. Likewise for the Paracels and Vietnam on the west side of the Sea. If the Court rules, as is also expected, the Paracels are within the 200 nm zone of Vietnam, then the nine dash line there would also be invalidated. And if as expected the Tribunal rules the Spratlys in the southeast area of SCS are within the EEZ of the Phils, the nine dash line there is further invalidated. Etc.

All of that would relieve the countries objecting to the nine-dashed line -- the Phils, Vietnam and also Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia.

The effective result is good-bye nine dashed line. Without addressing it directly.

Nine-dashed line kaput...at least legally under the terms and provisions of the ILOS. However, as CCP forcefully hollers and shouts, that would by no means be the end of it.

[Publicus]

The numbnuts CCP Dictators in Beijing think the US is going to get involved in another land war. And in Asia of all places. Southeast Asia besides.

CCP Boyz think the SCS contest is another one for the US Army.

The SCS and CCP contest fits exactly the US Doctrine of Air-Sea Battle which is the official US warfighting doctrine since 2010. This isn't going to be a war of any kind, at least as far as the US and East Asian allies are concerned to include US strategic partners from Japan through Asean and Australia to India.

It is the South China Sea. As in water and air over the water. Not land. Not another Korean Conflict; not another Vietnam War either. Nor is this Afghanistan and it certainly is not Iraq. It is the CCP China and it is on and over the South China Sea.

China’s blunt warning to America: ‘We’re ready for repeat of Korean War or Vietnam if U.S. military stirs up any conflict in South China Sea’

China has warned the United States not to 'stir up any conflict' in the South China Sea and said it was ready to replay the Korean War or Vietnam if provoked.

Liu Zhenmin, a vice minister in China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: 'The Chinese people do not want to have war, so we will be opposed to U.S. if it stirs up any conflict.

'Of course, if the Korean War or Vietnam War are replayed, then we will have to defend ourselves.'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3600609/China-warns-U-S-ready-repeat-Korean-War-Vietnam-American-military-stirs-conflict-South-China-Sea.html#ixzz49LuWdpIy

Just so the Boyz and anyone else who continues to think in the past can get a clearer head about all of this in the SCS, here is a reality look at the geography of it....

The US Doctrine of Air-Sea Battle. Also known as the Doctrine of Sea-Air-Space Battle to be more inclusive and comprehensive about it. Let's hope CCP Dictators in Beijing can get their heads clear about this lest they make a gross misjudgement.

We see anyway where it states "Chinese Claim" the location of Scarborough Shoal, Everyone is waiting to see of CCP tries to move in on Scarborough as its defiant reply to the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling expected against CCP between now and the end of June. CCP occupying Scarborough Shoal would form the CCP Iron Triangle of control over the SCS.

Scarborough Shoal is 140 miles from Manila to include the new positioning of US forces in the Philippines with more US forces to come to include naval, air, US Marines. Scarborough is 120 off the coast of the Phils. The shoal is 470 miles off the coast of the CCP China and 370 miles off Hainan island which is the base of the PLA Navy South Fleet to include nuclear submarines.

Fiery Cross Reef which CCP has already militarised is 620 miles from the coast of the CCP China. So we see illustrated that the CCP Dictators in Beijing are brazen aggressors who have no shame or self-restraint. They are absolute, uncompromising, belligerent, bellicose grabbers of territory.

Yet this is not Ukraine which is a Russian aggression on land. It's not a Taliban or Daesh hideout. It is the sea and it is CCP thinking it owns it as its sovereign territory. This is both revanchism and irredentism. Which is why everyone is against it.

USS Aircraft Carrier John C. Stennis and its Strike Force

in the South China Sea April 17, 2016. Strike Force submarines are not visible.

Edited May 22, 2016 by Publicus

[boomerangutang]

Which is why everyone is against it.

....except China and The Gambia.

I'm sure Chinese operatives are feverishly traveling around to the smallest and/or poorest principalities in the world - trying to see who else they can bribe to sign their form letter, which says something like:

We, the people of ___(fill in the blanks) ______ agree that The Peoples Republic of China has always owned all the islands shoals and sandbars in the South China Sea.

Here are some which are doubtless being courted (in no particular order):

Belize, Samoa, Fiji, DR Congo, Zambia, East Timor, Rapanui, Montenegro, Pitcairn Island, Cape Verde, Monaco, Lichtenstein, Bosnia, Seychelles, Mauritania, Mali, Equatorial Africa, Sierra Leone, Mauritius, Trinidad, UAR, Oman, Qatar, Luxembourg, Azores, Andorra, Bhutan, El Salvador, Yemen, Djibouti, Serbia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Bahamas, .........and lots more.

Another facet of Beijing's propaganda campaign, is to get articles published in as many magazines, newspapers, and online news sites worldwide. There are probably thousands (or tens of thousands?) of Chinese working on this full time. That's where the articles (I've found at least two, recently) came from which were in Bkk's Nation Newspaper. Actually, the Nation's article was written by a native English-speaker, because the English is too fluent for a Chinese who studied English. It's an effective form of propaganda. Too bad the Nation got sucked into printing faux news. Thus far, the Nation hasn't printed my letter to the Editor which pointed that out.

You can bet Thai newspapers are doing the same: getting news feeds from the Chinese written in perfect Thai. The cooperating newspapers just have to copy and paste. So easy. So misled. Most newspapers, Nation and Thai and others, don't even know they're being hoodwinked into publishing false news - and winding up being mouthpieces for Beijing propaganda.

When the findings are published from the Int'l Tribunal, expect an intense flurry of propaganda articles to pour out of Beijing, all with the same message: "The findings are false. The Tribunal has no jurisdiction. The islands have always been Chinese. The US is meddling and wanting to start wars." blah blah blah.

[Publicus]

They signed up Fiji and Montenegro last week. So that's two out of the 34 selected example instances listed. If that were Beijing's batting average they have their uniform taken away from 'em.

CCP are not doing well in their fire no shots Three Warfares....

1) Psychological

2) Media/PR

3) Legal "lawfare"

While all three are a bust in the SCS contest, number three is taking a really heavy pounding and it's only gonna get worse.

[boomerangutang]

My letter to the Nation newspaper got in today.

It mentions how the China Daily newspaper (under the guise of 'Asia News Network') is sending out propaganda (re; the SCS) to English language news outlets.

LINK

It's commendable that Nation will print a letter which is a lukewarm put-down of its (the Nation's) policy to print whatever gets submitted by Chinese propaganda machine. let's see whether it has any affect on its future policy. Or, if it does publish propaganda, whether the Nation (and other outlets) will add a disclaimer, saying something like, "the data in the following text may be propaganda and/or false."