US military units to stay for South China Sea patrols

[keemapoot]

Lots of analysis and articles streaming in today on Obama's lifting of the arms embargo during his announcement today in Hanoi, including speculation that it will spark a new arms race in the region. Most analysts are expecting it will piss off China as expected, and raise tensions on the SCS issues. But, one analyst from Janes, who I consider to be among the most credible, says:

Grevatt at IHS Jane's deemed it unlikely that a U.S.-Vietnam deal would automatically lead to a regional arms race, saying it was most likely that Vietnamese purchases from the U.S. would be supported by U.S. aid.

"This will restrict the size of the purchase (in terms of value) and will mean that any purchase of aircraft, for instance, is likely to feature a small number ex-U.S. military platforms," he said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/23/politics/vietnam-arms-ban-south-china-sea/index.html

Meanwhile, the locals young and old are out in a show of support:

And you've just gotta love Xinhua's response today:

As a habitual wave-maker in the Asia-Pacific, the United States has shown no restraint in meddling in regional situation, which is evidenced by its relentless moves to disturb peace in the South China Sea, with the latest case being a recent reconnaissance flight carried out by a U.S. military aircraft close to China's island of Hainan.

Therefore, it is advisable for Vietnam to stay cautious when dealing with the United States which is motivated by an insincere agenda, while Washington should exert restraint in actions counter-effective to regional stability and play a constructive role in promoting peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-05/22/c_135379555.htm

[Publicus]

China has always wanted bilateral talks only with each country separately ....so after meeting the Chinese ambassador the guy says he wants to talk directly and negotiate terms and develop the island together. While it may not mean it ends well for China ...its at least on the platform that China wants and hopefully influence

He also mentioned in an earlier speech if China's does not claim it , Philippines would not too ...that's a departure from Aquinos stance that the court hearing is binding and the only way

China wont claim it for 6 more years...there is no rush....in the meantime they can continue building and negotiations

I think I see a white flag being pulled out of a cheap cardboard box.

One thing about a bully is that it always has the agility to explain away its strategic retreat by saying mom is calling to come home for dinner and that no one defies good ole mom.

United States to remain world’s Number 1 power ‘for a fairly long time’: Beijing

Saturday, 21 May, 2016

The United States will remain the world’s leading power for a long time, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Friday, but he stressed global affairs should not be dominated by one country.

When asked whether China, the world’s second largest economy, had prepared to replace a declining US as global leader, Wang replied “from what we know about the country, the US will probably remain the world’s No 1 for a fairly long time”.

The remarks come ahead of an expected ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in the coming weeks in a case launched by the Philippines contesting the legality of China’s “nine-dash line” demarcating most of the South China Sea as its territory.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1948896/united-states-remain-worlds-number-1-power-fairly-long

This coincidental statement the other day by an Australian business commentator helps to explain this sudden, new, unexpected surrender development out of Beijing...

The biggest mistake China could make would be to believe Western analysts who argue it's almost as militarily powerful as the US. True, the US couldn't defeat ragged bands of Afghan tribal fighters armed with clapped-out rifles and home-made bombs. But it would be a terrible mistake for China to assume it could win very different battles at sea and in the air against advanced, highly experienced US forces backed by vastly superior technologies.

Two American specialists Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth make a compelling case in the latest issue of the US journal Foreign Affairs that China will not match the US militarily for many decades, if ever. The authors accept that China has improved its defences in its immediate coastal waters, but say it is only natural for it to reverse "this unusual vulnerability, which the US would never accept for itself". Beyond that limited zone, they say China will remain much weaker than the US.

http://www.afr.com/opinion/why-is-labor-more-hawkish-on-the-south-china-sea-than-coalitions-socalled-hawks-20160522-gp0s3j

Game over.

[boomerangutang]

I wish it were 'game over' but I still think China won't retreat one cm from the territory it's currently commandeered, ......unless given a good hard slap on its rump.

Words, posturing, announcements, tribunal findings won't send Chinese back to China.

[Publicus]

I wish it were 'game over' but I still think China won't retreat one cm from the territory it's currently commandeered, ......unless given a good hard slap on its rump.

Words, posturing, announcements, tribunal findings won't send Chinese back to China.

True. You are right about this and you've been right on this from the get go.

The larger picture is however that CCP are backing off challenging the USA globally. CCP in the SCS will continue but more cautiously and tamped down.

It's the totality of the SCS, Japan-US and the East Sea, the Phils case at the PCA, Asean and the Code of Conduct and the Asean Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the SCS both of which CCP has decimated, the CCP economy, the strong democracy movement in Hong Kong, the new DPP President Tsai Ing-wei in Taiwan, collapse of the Brics, the TPP and the Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank to create four new Silk Road routes to Europe being stillborn, open resistance to Xi Jinping within the CCP...and so much more that puts CCP Dictators on the ropes.

The Carrier Stennis and its strike force docked in Manila on Saturday, after visiting Subic Bay on Friday, the day President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) was inaugurated in Taipei.

“The presence of Stennis and its escort ships bring stability to the region, and sends out a strong message for China not to make any injudicious moves in the meantime,” said William Sharp, a visiting US research fellow at Academia Sinica in Taipei.

Military experts said the Stennis and its strike group were operating in the northern sector of the South China Sea in the past few days, in sea lanes adjacent to the Philippines and in close proximity to Taiwan.

Taiwanese political pundits said that Washington sending the carrier and its escort to patrol in waters near Taiwan last week was a strong signal to China, warning it against making any military provocations as Taiwan’s new president assumed office.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/05/23/2003646928

The real test is whether the CCP Dictators will move against the Scarborough Shoals which are well within the Philippines EEZ.

President Obama completely removing the US embargo of lethal arms to Vietnam was in reality and effectively an informal and unofficial declaration of war against CCP. It is the serious turning point in the SCS and globally and CCP knows it. So does everyone else.

[tonbridgebrit]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-southchinasea-idUSKCN0V502V


The above article is from Reuters, and was headlined "US slams Taiwan President's planned visit to contested South China Sea Island".

President Ma Ying-jeou

Okay, back in January this year, Ma Ying-jeou, the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan) made plans to visit Taiping Island. Just a reminder, Taiping Island is also called Itu Aba, and here is the wikipedia link about Taiping Island.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Island


If anybody clicks onto the link, you will obviously see on the map, that Taiping Island (太平島) is nowhere near the Republic of China (Taiwan), even though Taiwan has a military base there. Yes, it's also nowhere near China.

So, Ma Ying-jeou, President of Taiwan made plans to visit the island. Actually, President Ma was replaced very recently by a lady called Tsai Ing-Wen.
The USA does not have a US Embassy in the Republic of China, that's because the US Embassy is in the Peoples' Republic of China. Obviously, you can only have one embassy in China, you can't have two embassies in China, as in, you can't have two embassies in the the same country. But there is a building called the American Institute of Taiwan in Taiwan, yes, the AIT.


Now then, a quote from the Reuters article ["We are disappointed that President Ma Ying-jeou plans to travel to Taiping Island," AIT spokeswoman Sonia Urbom said in an email to Reuters.

"Such an action is extremely unhelpful and does not contribute to the peaceful resolution of disputes in the South China Sea."].


Obviously, Washington was not pleased by the plans for the visit.
President Ma did actually visit Taiping Island. Yes, the Republic of China (Taiwan) claims most of the South China Sea.

[keemapoot]

I keep coming back to discussing Russia in this SCS connection (I guess it's because I'm a Russia watcher and I've lived and worked there for many years, and dealt so deeply with the Russian government and business over the past 30 years, and been involved in Russia's investments in Vietnam). This article states Obama's lifting of the arms Embargo is a "Wake up call for Russia." I have been arguing all along that the great sleeping bear will be swimming along soon to the SCS, even though that bear is no longer a super bear, but still sizable.

Russia has long been Hanoi’s top weapons supplier. But, that dominance will slowly be eroded as the market is opened and U.S. arms dealers begin to seize the opportunity.

‘It will ultimately undermine Russian dominance in the Vietnamese market, but is unlikely to have a quick effect,” said Alexander Gabuev, chairman of the Russia-Asia Pacific program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, in e-mailed comments to VOA.

“The market environment will be more competitive, but Russia has a strong position in terms of value-for-money of its systems, the Vietnamese military's long-standing ties to Russian producers and the need to train personnel. A lot will depend on whether the U.S. government will support possible sales of American systems, and what the position of the next government will be."

http://www.voanews.com/content/lifting-us-arms-embargo-vietnam-wake-up-call-russia/3342370.html

Russia's longtime strategic JV investments with Vietnam in the offshore oil in the SCS, together with this new wrinkle of Vietnam being seduced by its new lover, the US, in terms of weapons systems, together with Russia's strategic and complicated relationship with China makes for an interesting and complex vodka cocktail in the SCS. (what a mess of mixed metaphors this post has been - coffee hasn't kicked in yet, I'm normally not up this early )

I keep saying don't count out Russia as an interested party in the SCS, even though analysis says they won't interfere with China on behalf of Vietnam.

And, again, analysis keeps coming back to what the position of the next US government will be. If Trump is elected, will he support all this new Obama rebalance, pivot, interest in Asia, SCS, Vietnam, or will he be obliged to make good on his election rhetoric and stop playing, pick up his marbles and go home and build a wall?

[boomerangutang]

The USA does not have a US Embassy in the Republic of China, that's because the US Embassy is in the Peoples' Republic of China. Obviously, you can only have one embassy in China, you can't have two embassies in China, as in, you can't have two embassies in the the same country

That's 'old school' way of thinking. Welcome to the 21st century. Since Taiwan was declared, about 22 new countries have been established in the world. Things change. Panama used to be part of Colombia. There are embassies in China and there can be embassies in Taiwan. Taiwan should formally declare itself a country. China says it will bombard it if it does that, but it won't. Taiwan can defend itself and it has some militarily strong friends. Indeed, now would be a good time for Taiwan to formally declare independence, as Uncle Sam is cruising nearby. In every reasonable persons' view (everyone outside of China), Taiwan has been independent since the end of the Chinese civil war over 60 years ago.

[Publicus]

Taiwan claims sovereignty over Taiping in the SCS and asserts it is an island, not a rock. The Philippines at the PCA in The Hague says it is a rock and therefore not entitled to a 200 nm EEZ which would mean Phils fishermen can go there supported by the ILOS.

Taiping aka Itu Aba is probably an island but that view could be wrong so the PCA will decide the matter definitively. US takes no position on issues of sovereignty in SCS so it criticised the Beijing-directed Taiping visit by the then outgoing Pres. of Taiwan Ma Ying-jeou. The Ma visit ordered up by Beijing was intended to offend the Philippines, which CCP and its boy Ma did accomplish in the middle of the Phils' own election campaign won by Rodrigo Duterte. Duterte personally favors qualified bilateral negotiations but since being elected is insisting on multilateral discussions.

Taiping was an issue in the Taiwan election campaign won in a landslide by Tsai Ing-wei of the Democratic Progressive Party which now and for the first time also controls the parliament. Pres. Tsai will support the PCA rulings in all respects to include Taiping. This is in a sharp contrast to Beijing which has already and long rejected the Tribunal and the ILOS.

Meanwhile the American Institute in Taiwan is an interesting creature.

AIT is funded almost entirely by US Department of State and is staffed by DepState Foreign Service Officers. The government of Taiwan recognises its director as Ambassador of the United States to Taiwan and grants full diplomatic status to its Director -- presently DepState Career Foreign Service Officer Kin W. Moy -- and to all the US DepState Foreign Service Officers there. The Institute has 420 full time US DepState Foreign Service Officers to include Taiwan citizens employed in a professional capacity....

The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) is a non-profit, private corporation established shortly after the United States Government changed its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing on January 1, 1979. The Taiwan Relations Act (PL 96-8) of April 10, 1979, authorized the continuation of "commercial, cultural and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan." It also provided that "any programs, transactions, or other relations conducted or carried out by the President or any Agency of the United States Government with respect to Taiwan shall, in the manner and to the extent directed by the President, be conducted and carried out by or through the American Institute in Taiwan." The Department of State, through a contract with the Institute, provides a large part of AIT's funding and guidance in its operations. Congress, in passing the Taiwan Relations Act, also assumed an oversight role with respect to the Institute's operations.

http://www.ait.org.tw/en/about-us.html

How about that.

CCP Dictators in Beijing are hamstrung concerning Taiwan and its role in the SCS and the East Sea relative to CCP Japan/US disputes, concerning the Senkaku islands in particular. Any CCP military action against Taiwan, Japan, the Phils, Vietnam, would result in the absolute condemnation of CCP by the world community.

Diplomatic isolation of Taiwan by CCP has been reduced to buying off corrupt dictatorships or other single party corrupt governments to not recognise Taiwan. Pres. Tsai is moving Taiwan away from further trade and economic contact with the mainland and toward connecting more with global economic and financial markets led by trade, the latter being her expertise and background.

[Publicus]

My letter to the Nation newspaper got in today.

It mentions how the China Daily newspaper (under the guise of 'Asia News Network') is sending out propaganda (re; the SCS) to English language news outlets.

LINK

It's commendable that Nation will print a letter which is a lukewarm put-down of its (the Nation's) policy to print whatever gets submitted by Chinese propaganda machine. let's see whether it has any affect on its future policy. Or, if it does publish propaganda, whether the Nation (and other outlets) will add a disclaimer, saying something like, "the data in the following text may be propaganda and/or false."

Seriously maybe it is time to send your letter modified to the advertising director of the Toronto Globe & Mail....

Advertising is about bucks rather than issues. Political advertising (in the US) is usually protected by law and by the Constitution but still, a privately owned media organisation can choose its advertising. This statement by the CCP Dictators in Beijing is, well, a statement by CCP Dictators in Beijing. We found out from history what happens when aggressive and belligerent dictators are not stood up to or stopped. Let's not repeat history.

Readers of Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper might have spotted an unusual advertisement over the weekend. Courtesy of the Chinese consulate in Vancouver, it complemented restaurant reviews and other light reading with a half-page, all-text ad entitled “The South China Sea Arbitration Case Initiated by the Philippines Violates International Law.”

http://qz.com/689957/chinas-latest-weapon-in-the-battle-for-the-south-china-sea-is-newspaper-advertising/

CCP's Three Warfares of the 21st century...

1) Psychological

2) Media/PR

3) Legal, i.e., "Lawfare"

CCP needs to be denied on all three war fronts.

[Publicus]

Every territorial claim CCP Dictators in Beijing make is pulled out of their rump yet simply because they suddenly stop making it publicly only indicates that, well, they've stopped making it publicly.

A claim such as this one,.,, that the Philippines is the "inherent" sovereign territory of China and that the "fact" is "indisputable" does get beyond the pale even for the brazen shameless and aggressive, revanchist Dictators in Beijing.

CCP does in fact claim more Chinese sovereign territory than exists in China itself. This is yet another part of that grandiose and dangerous scheme that would not only reestablish the delusional Central Kingdom of old, but establish a new Central Kingdom that extends well beyond the original delusional one.

Chinese TV Anchor Says China Owns Philippines

Viral: Video of China news anchor saying Philippines is owned by China

To add fuel to the fire, it appears back in 2012, local media reported that the entirety of the Philippine archipelago belonged to China. Time magazine reported that the anchor for the state-run TV network CCTV called China’s ownership of the nation as an “indisputable fact.”

The publication quoted the reporter saying, in Chinese: “We all know that the Philippines is China’s inherent territory, and the Philippines belongs to Chinese sovereignty. This is an indisputable fact.”

Since the reporting, the clip has been taken down from the website.

http://world.time.com/2012/05/10/a-chinese-tv-anchor-claims-china-owns-the-philippines-as-spat-heats-up-the-south-china-sea/

http://t.manila.coconuts.co/2016/05/17/not-joke-chinese-news-anchor-says-china-owns-philippines

The same year as this statement was made on CCP owned and operated state media, 2012, was the year an intense struggle was won by CCP over possession of the Scarborough Shoals which are well within the Phils' EEZ under the provisions of the ILOS. CCP aggression becomes more precise, longer term comprehensible in these contexts.

[Publicus]

CCP seems to have more sovereignty in more places than does all of East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia combined.

CCP Dictators in Beijing are bungling klutzes who only know how to make enemies. Lotta hollering cussing and bellowing coming out of Beijing all year with only more noise to come so stand by.

US, Indian war games in South China Sea threat to sovereignty: China

Flotilla of India Navy guided missile warships INS Satpura, INS Sahyadri, INS Shakti, and INS Kirch in the South China Sea May 22 en route to join US Navy ships in naval exercises in Philippine waters and which have irked China. After the exercises the two Indian Navy frigates and two battle cruisers will make port calls at Cam Rahn Bay (Vietnam), Subic Bay (Philippines), Sasebo (Japan), Vladivostok (Russia), Busan (South Korea), and Port Klang (Malaysia).

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/malabar-exercise-2016-and-chinas-concern/

Times haven't ever been tougher for the CCP Dictators in Beijing. This is their 19th nervous breakdown and the PCA in The Hague hasn't announced its ruling yet.

[keemapoot]

Obama's trip to Vietnam has really kicked off a foreign policy model for US-ASEAN alliance, exploiting a rift between Vietnam and China (trade, SCS dispute and security), and driving a wedge between Vietnam and Russia (arms sales). The US has picked the most important and strategic partner in this struggle for the SCS, Vietnam. At the same time, Obama is working the people (what he does best) and here is some of his talent on display in Hanoi yesterday. He stopped off at a streetside restaurant for a $6 dinner.

Unsurprisingly, this video is the single most viewed and like video on Thai social media yesterday, showing the Viet crowds starstruck and with the Thai fascination with food and celebrity. But, that's how hearts and minds are won. Smart and likable. Both traits lacking in Trump. One trait lacking in Hilary.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2016/may/24/barack-obama-stops-off-at-streetside-restaurant-in-vietnam-for-6-dinner-video

[LawrenceChee]

From China's point of view , it is provocative to start easing arm sales in this region.

Unfortunately there is a lot of history of arm sales by the USA that leads to regional conflicts later on.

I am not a big fan of arm sales and believe they don't believe anyone

[boomerangutang]

I also don't like big arms sales. Unfortunately, we as a species have some glaring drawbacks. We're territorial, and tend to bunch up and have armed conflicts often. Rather like army ants vs red ants. Psychologically, humans are rather primitive. Look at how easily a person can get offended. Some people carry around dozens of issues which can offend them. Like a porcupine with each quill signifying something which offends that animal. Of course porcupines aren't as paranoid and thin-skinned as humans.

When offended, even a slight bit, humans tend to blow it up to giant scale, and immediately get aggressive and/or plot revenge. Those three character flaws: coveting territory easily offended, and quick to anger/retribution. make for a feisty and violence-prone species. There are other human character flaws, enough to fill a thick book, but I'll leave it lie for now.

.....but it's plain that flaws of individuals can be readily blown up to hobble large groups of people, if those individuals are in charge.

Humans have developed fast technologically in the past 150 years, but in terms of character development, they're still on a level below wolves.

[2fishin2]

The Chinese dont sell arms....

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/22/news/china-arms-exports-rising/

[ExpatOilWorker]

From China's point of view , it is provocative to start easing arm sales in this region.

Unfortunately there is a lot of history of arm sales by the USA that leads to regional conflicts later on.

I am not a big fan of arm sales and believe they don't believe anyone

China is the world 3rd largest arms exporter and they also use proxies to sell to rebel groups. The west is fairly open and honest about their arms deals, most of the time at least.

[Publicus]

From China's point of view , it is provocative to start easing arm sales in this region.

Unfortunately there is a lot of history of arm sales by the USA that leads to regional conflicts later on.

I am not a big fan of arm sales and believe they don't believe anyone

CCP sell a lot of small arms that are used in everyday conflicts throughout the world, in Africa especially, the genocide in Darfur most notoriously.

China is one of the world’s top small arms producers, and the products of official arms companies such as Norinco (北方工业) make regular appearances in conflicts around the globe. In 2014, Chinese arms and ammunition export totaled at $161 million, out of which sporting and hunting long guns constituted $12.75 million (UN Comtrade; NISAT). Despite the country’s position as one of the world’s largest arms producers, strict Chinese gun laws are designed to ensure few, if any, of its own citizens have the legal right to keep arms.

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=44923&cHash=cbf35fbeab85fc8a6a3ec37a91e4f7d4#.V0cQVtu1nnc

USA sells big ticket items such as missiles both defensive and offensive, which is what's coming soon to Vietnam and which Hanoi very much wants to line its SCS coast with to face off CCP in the VN EEZ, the Paracels in particular and Hainan island the other side of 'em which is the base of the PLA Navy South Fleet and its Coast Guard components.

More broadly, UK sells sophisticated high tech electronics and cybernetics to include sensor systems and the like, while France sells mostly fighter jets, ships, submarines. (Australia just ordered up six new subs from France.) Germany is famous for its Leopard tank which sell by 70-100 on each deal and which Nato countries in Europe have as their main battle tank and now most Gulf countries have due to their being accessible by Iran via Kuwait/Iraq/SA.

Russia sells everything except its most advanced generation weaponry, small arms especially. Vietnam buys 90% of its arms assets from Russia but there are two issues why VN wants US advanced weaponry. First the Russian stuff is falling out of date across the board so it has diminished effectiveness. More importantly however, CCP Boyz in Beijing have long hamstrung Putin & Co. in the weapons CCP will allow the Kremlin to provide to VN. So VN suddenly now has tossed the short end of the stick it's been getting from Beijing and Moscow by turning to the US and, eventually, to G-7 countries and also Nato members.

VN had been a CCP headache but now VN is giving the Boyz another SCS nervous breakdown.

[LawrenceChee]

Anyone that gets excited over the rant above on arm sales is exactly who we don't want on the council negotiating for the islands

The preference to sell arms to ensure everyone gets a destructive piece / capability and then gleefully think this will tilt the scales is nuts

If everyone gets that same amount of enthusiasm to sit on a table and try to cobble a deal, that's more sensible and useful to the region rather than selling arms

[tonbridgebrit]

Obama's trip to Vietnam has really kicked off a foreign policy model for US-ASEAN alliance, exploiting a rift between Vietnam and China (trade, SCS dispute and security), and driving a wedge between Vietnam and Russia (arms sales). The US has picked the most important and strategic partner in this struggle for the SCS, Vietnam. At the same time, Obama is working the people (what he does best) and here is some of his talent on display in Hanoi yesterday. He stopped off at a streetside restaurant for a $6 dinner.

Unsurprisingly, this video is the single most viewed and like video on Thai social media yesterday, showing the Viet crowds starstruck and with the Thai fascination with food and celebrity. But, that's how hearts and minds are won. Smart and likable. Both traits lacking in Trump. One trait lacking in Hilary.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2016/may/24/barack-obama-stops-off-at-streetside-restaurant-in-vietnam-for-6-dinner-video

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-obama-idUSKCN0YE2RX?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

Okay, the headline from the above link from Reuters is "Obama prods Vietnam on rights after activists stopped from meeting him" !!

And a quote "U.S. President Barack Obama chided Vietnam on political freedoms on Tuesday after critics of its communist-run government were prevented from meeting him in Hanoi, a discordant note on a trip otherwise steeped in amity between the former foes."

Barack Obama, you chided Vietnam on political freedom ??

And also, "The high point of his visit came on Monday, with an announcement that Washington was scrapping its embargo on the sale of lethal arms to Vietnam."

Barack Obama, Sir, can you please not make yourself look silly in front of the media ! Look, the American arms exporters will make serious money by selling arms to Vietnam. Why raise the issue of political freedom and rights of activists in Vietnam ? We all know that Vietnam is a communist dictatorship.

Washington, you already sell a stack of military hardware to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia are also NOT a democracy. The people of Saudi Arabia have probably got even LESS freedom than people in Vietnam. Stop raising the issue of poltical freedom in Vietnam, we know there isn't any !

[LawrenceChee]

This is the same reason why comrade P needs to reexamine some of his posts as he gleefully snacks China with vile remarks and yet think this partnership of Vietnam and USA bears all merits and rights

Vietnam remains a communist state and like a good old commie has aplenty of secrets that they are keeping from its old foe

Fooled the USA once and won't be surprised if they catch Uncle Sam with their pants down again using the current situation to their advantage to get the arms they want

Any arms escalation is bad news and logical people should be using trade to overwhelm this desire to have arms

[Publicus]

Laos is chair of Asean this year which in September will return President Obama for his 11th visit to this region to attend the annual meeting. He will be the first Potus to visit Laos.

The Asean defense ministers meeting that concluded Wednesday completely disappointed the CCP Dictators in Beijing in their aggressions in the SCS....

VIENTIANE -- Regional defense ministers on Wednesday spoke of the importance of freedom of marine and air traffic in the South China Sea, which is increasingly becoming a potential hotspot of conflict.

"[The ministers] reiterate the importance of maintaining peace, stability and security as well as upholding freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea, as provided for by universally recognized principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea," read the joint declaration issued following the meeting of defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

They also stressed the need for a speedy conclusion of a legally binding code of conduct for the disputed waters.

Laotian Defense Minister Chansamone Chanyalath, who chaired the meeting, said, "Unilateral actions and changing the status quo (in the South China Sea) should be avoided."

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/ASEAN-defense-talks-on-South-China-Sea-subdued-by-terrorism-concerns?page=1

This is another shock to the CCP and their delusional Central Kingdom presumptions in the absolute that Asean and its member states are mere tributary subject states of Beijing and that the United States and the world will become the subject pawns of a fait accompli Chinese lake.

Few people have any notion of how strongly and profoundly Asean opposes the CCP belligerence, bellicosity, aggressions in the SCS, the CCP Chinese being first and foremost in their oblivious presumptions.

.

So it is encouraging that the G-7 which concludes its meeting today will issue a similar if not same statement calling for a peaceful settlement of the SCS antagonisms precipitated by CCP's unilateral seizing of islands and the construction of artificial islands in the Sea, and for freedom of navigation on the sea and in the air above it.

In other words, the rule of law over the rule of Chinese emperors in business suits who are a new and young dynasty of supremacists -- yet a nervous and insecure one. Klutzes besides.

[keemapoot]

Not surprisingly, the G-7 leaders, including Obama, in Japan yesterday are coming down on China's SCS ambitions:

G-7 leaders will jointly urge countries to uphold the legal principle of freedom of navigation. The international tribunal at The Hague is expected to rule as early as June on the Philippines' case against Chinese claims in the South China Sea. The leaders are likely pressuring Beijing to abide by that decision, whatever it may be.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/G-7-urges-respect-for-maritime-law

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday opened the first session of the G-7 summit here with a description of territorial disputes in the East and South China seas. He apparently included Beijing's provocations near the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims and calls the Diaoyu, as well as its military build-up in disputed waters.

It really does appear as if overwhelming support of affected countries and navigation, as well as opposition to China's activities in the SCS is going to isolate China on this one. Something has to give.

[LawrenceChee]

Not surprisingly, the G-7 leaders, including Obama, in Japan yesterday are coming down on China's SCS ambitions:

G-7 leaders will jointly urge countries to uphold the legal principle of freedom of navigation. The international tribunal at The Hague is expected to rule as early as June on the Philippines' case against Chinese claims in the South China Sea. The leaders are likely pressuring Beijing to abide by that decision, whatever it may be.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/G-7-urges-respect-for-maritime-law

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday opened the first session of the G-7 summit here with a description of territorial disputes in the East and South China seas. He apparently included Beijing's provocations near the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims and calls the Diaoyu, as well as its military build-up in disputed waters.

It really does appear as if overwhelming support of affected countries and navigation, as well as opposition to China's activities in the SCS is going to isolate China on this one. Something has to give.

It will be a tense finish .... that's for sure.... Let's hope there is no trigger happy fingers here. It's really a dispute of islands, trade, $$$ and everyone getting a fair share of the big pie.

I don't see China backing down or starting any aggressive war tactics...not sure about Uncle Sam as it has been a while since their last useless war and I know the commanders have been itching for a show of their fireworks ...and all the initiation sequences which Comrade P will type a whole paragraph on ...air sea star wars ... Press here and there when he wakes from his coffee

[keemapoot]

Not surprisingly, the G-7 leaders, including Obama, in Japan yesterday are coming down on China's SCS ambitions:

G-7 leaders will jointly urge countries to uphold the legal principle of freedom of navigation. The international tribunal at The Hague is expected to rule as early as June on the Philippines' case against Chinese claims in the South China Sea. The leaders are likely pressuring Beijing to abide by that decision, whatever it may be.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/G-7-urges-respect-for-maritime-law

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday opened the first session of the G-7 summit here with a description of territorial disputes in the East and South China seas. He apparently included Beijing's provocations near the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims and calls the Diaoyu, as well as its military build-up in disputed waters.

It really does appear as if overwhelming support of affected countries and navigation, as well as opposition to China's activities in the SCS is going to isolate China on this one. Something has to give.

It will be a tense finish .... that's for sure.... Let's hope there is no trigger happy fingers here. It's really a dispute of islands, trade, $$$ and everyone getting a fair share of the big pie.

I don't see China backing down or starting any aggressive war tactics...not sure about Uncle Sam as it has been a while since their last useless war and I know the commanders have been itching for a show of their fireworks ...and all the initiation sequences which Comrade P will type a whole paragraph on ...air sea star wars ... Press here and there when he wakes from his coffee

Yup. Should be some negotiations coming, but everyone knows the big kid always gets most of the pie. True for the US as well and every other empire in history. Throwing fits and sabre rattling doesn't help, especially when your own country has been guilty of even bigger land or sea grabs or equivalent superpower games.

Sent from my GT-N5100 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[tonbridgebrit]

keemapoot, okay, whatever group of whatever people, when they rule against China in whatever South China Sea thing, is it that surprising if Beijing is simply going to disregard whatever judgement ?


I mean, you mentioned those Senkaku Islands. So, Japan has those islands, because they were the first to go there and claim it, right ? Some or most of those Senkaku Islands are closer to Taiwan or mainland China than they are to Okinawa. Yet, Japan is allowed to have them, because Japan got there first, and claimed it first.

And China, they got to the Spratly Islands first, and got to Taiping Island first (note that Taiping Island, occupied by Taiwan, Republic of China, is nowhere near Taiwan), but whatever governng body is trying to say that those islands or whatever rocks/dots do not belong to China.

[keemapoot]

keemapoot, okay, whatever group of whatever people, when they rule against China in whatever South China Sea thing, is it that surprising if Beijing is simply going to disregard whatever judgement ?

I mean, you mentioned those Senkaku Islands. So, Japan has those islands, because they were the first to go there and claim it, right ? Some or most of those Senkaku Islands are closer to Taiwan or mainland China than they are to Okinawa. Yet, Japan is allowed to have them, because Japan got there first, and claimed it first.

And China, they got to the Spratly Islands first, and got to Taiping Island first (note that Taiping Island, occupied by Taiwan, Republic of China, is nowhere near Taiwan), but whatever governng body is trying to say that those islands or whatever rocks/dots do not belong to China.

Actually, the whole global system of international public law has developed over many centuries, and China was not involved in that process mostly. More importantly, the entire system of internatinal maritime law was chiefly developed during the British Empire's rule of the seas, and as it was mostly based in rational common law principles, many of those international law principals endure today. Again, China was absent from those centuries of legal definition.

So, China's legal position, as I understand it, and IT IS MOSTLY WRONG, is that this entire system of international laws was designed by other people, not Chinese, and if they did not have a hand in its design, they do not recognize its legitimacy. It's kind of like showing up late to a game of cards, where the rules have been established, and you claim those rules don't apply to you.

This is a losing battle to be honest. The global community recognizes the legitimacy of the body of international law and laws of sovereignty, and maritime laws, and the UN system of treaty enforcement. So, China is destined to lose this argument in the global community.

What they should do is play ball, but play tough on negotiations and with the greater leverage can still end up with most of the pie in the SCS.

To be honest, they are new to this game.

[tonbridgebrit]

Laos is chair of Asean this year which in September will return President Obama for his 11th visit to this region to attend the annual meeting. He will be the first Potus to visit Laos.

The Asean defense ministers meeting that concluded Wednesday completely disappointed the CCP Dictators in Beijing in their aggressions in the SCS....

VIENTIANE -- Regional defense ministers on Wednesday spoke of the importance of freedom of marine and air traffic in the South China Sea, which is increasingly becoming a potential hotspot of conflict.

Few people have any notion of how strongly and profoundly Asean opposes the CCP belligerence, bellicosity, aggressions in the SCS, the CCP Chinese being first and foremost in their oblivious presumptions.

.

This comment is actually pretty funny.

What coastline does Laos have in the South China Sea ??

Also, can you stop writing about this delusion you have about how ASEAN countries don't like China ? All the ASEAN countries trade more with China than they do with America, or trade the same.

You seem to love trotting out the line about a nervous breakdown from Beijing ?

I say this, Washington is more likely having a nervous breakdown than Beijing. Barack Obama is trying to create that TPP thing, a trade group that will "prevent China exporting it's goods to markets at America's expense". Fair enough. But what is actually happening ? Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are against this TPP thing. And Hillary Clinton ? Hillary says she's also against it, because she knows that showing support for the TPP will cause her to lose votes. Hillary is conscious of the point that lots of Americans simply regard new trade pacts as things that will flood the USA with even more cheap imported goods.

So, Hillary has to be against it now, and then change her mind after she's won the election. Is Barack Obama frustrated ? He's got to try and finalise TPP before the end of this year. China is setting up a rival trade pact. Washington and Beijing are setting up rival trade pacts to reduce the other one's exports. That's what the REAL conflict is about.

[keemapoot]

^Another point our friend is fond of making is the hawkish nature and proclivities of the US Navy in the SCS and pacific. Without divulging too much, I had long conversation the other day with a retired (only a about a year) naval intelligence officer (also a friend) who was based in Japan for 10 years and was at sea on frigates in the SCS and other seas and Pacific 6 months of every year. I asked him about the possibility of confrontation now in this environment, and he told me NO WAY. He said the distance the two navies maintain is so far away and the protocols are so careful as to avoid this at all costs. He was almost flippant in his answer, but certain and definite about the facts, with the real at sea experience & inside intelligence knowlege to back it up. enough said.

[boomerangutang]

Anyone that gets excited over the rant above on arm sales is exactly who we don't want on the council negotiating for the islands

The preference to sell arms to ensure everyone gets a destructive piece / capability and then gleefully think this will tilt the scales is nuts

If everyone gets that same amount of enthusiasm to sit on a table and try to cobble a deal, that's more sensible and useful to the region rather than selling arms

Of course China wants a deal. It wants talks, and more talks, and wasted time, and scheduling talks, and more talks, and maneuvering, and more talks. ....anything which will waste time, thereby enabling China to grab more territory and pour more concrete.

[boomerangutang]

Not surprisingly, the G-7 leaders, including Obama, in Japan yesterday are coming down on China's SCS ambitions:

G-7 leaders will jointly urge countries to uphold the legal principle of freedom of navigation. The international tribunal at The Hague is expected to rule as early as June on the Philippines' case against Chinese claims in the South China Sea. The leaders are likely pressuring Beijing to abide by that decision, whatever it may be.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/G-7-urges-respect-for-maritime-law

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday opened the first session of the G-7 summit here with a description of territorial disputes in the East and South China seas. He apparently included Beijing's provocations near the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims and calls the Diaoyu, as well as its military build-up in disputed waters.

It really does appear as if overwhelming support of affected countries and navigation, as well as opposition to China's activities in the SCS is going to isolate China on this one. Something has to give.

It will be a tense finish .... that's for sure.... Let's hope there is no trigger happy fingers here. It's really a dispute of islands, trade, $$$ and everyone getting a fair share of the big pie.

I don't see China backing down or starting any aggressive war tactics...not sure about Uncle Sam as it has been a while since their last useless war and I know the commanders have been itching for a show of their fireworks ...and all the initiation sequences which Comrade P will type a whole paragraph on ...air sea star wars ... Press here and there when he wakes from his coffee

China won't be the first to launch military strikes. Yet, it's taking a very aggressive stance by commandeering other countries' territories.

Here I go with another analogy (just like my prior analogies): If, when you take your family out to dinner at a restaurant, I sneak in with my buddies and commandeer your house, you won't like that. When you come home, I'm there, fixing food, lying in your bed with my muddy boots on, watching your TV. You can say to me, "Hey, GET OUT! It's my house!" I can say to you, "Why be so aggressive? Are you going to shoot me or stab me?" "I just want everyone to get along. Here, have some cookies I just made. Be peaceful. Why all this aggression? Oh, and if you're not using your wife and daughters (oil rights), do you mind if I toss them on the bed for some fun?"

keemapoot, okay, whatever group of whatever people, when they rule against China in whatever South China Sea thing, is it that surprising if Beijing is simply going to disregard whatever judgement ?

I mean, you mentioned those Senkaku Islands. So, Japan has those islands, because they were the first to go there and claim it, right ? Some or most of those Senkaku Islands are closer to Taiwan or mainland China than they are to Okinawa. Yet, Japan is allowed to have them, because Japan got there first, and claimed it first.

And China, they got to the Spratly Islands first, and got to Taiping Island first (note that Taiping Island, occupied by Taiwan, Republic of China, is nowhere near Taiwan), but whatever governng body is trying to say that those islands or whatever rocks/dots do not belong to China.

Are you joking. Who says China got to the Spratly islands first? Those islands are quite near the Philippines. It's natural to assume Phil fishermen got there first. Just because Fils didn't plant a flag or build an airstrip, doesn't mean they were not there first. Or perhaps it was Europeans, hence the name Spratly. The same name which traditional Chinese maps used. Plus, Chinese maps dating back hundreds of years never included those islands as part of China. It's only in recent decades they've started to do that, along with placing Chinese names on them.

And that nine-dash map. Where did it really come from? Is it over a hundred years old? Verifiable? Regardless, it's the cheapest of cheap shots to show a primitive sketch of the area with dashed lines and use it as confirmation that the Philippine islands are Chinese. It would be silly, were it not for serious ramifications.